OT: Significant Winter Storm Likely on Thursday (2/18)

RU848789

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It’s any kind of wetness if temps get below 40. It all depends on the temps.

I didn’t swap on my winter tires this winter, so I’m still on summer high performance tires. As great as they are in warm weather, their performance goes downhill fast starting at 45 on down.

Still okay on dry pavement, and manageable down to 40 on wet pavement. But much colder and/or wet it becomes downright dangerous. Would have to creep around which pretty much renders the whole exercise pointless.

Lots of stories in car forums about people driving in freezing temps on summer tires sliding off the road even in gentle turns. Guy I know from Novita wrecked his new (to him) Camaro ZL1 1LE up near Chester in exactly that circumstance.
That makes no sense. Why would water on a road at 37F affect a car differently from water on a road at 42F? The properties of water are no different at those temperatures - is there some property of the tires that changes below 40F?
 

RU848789

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no truly your post was unhinged
I thought it was actually quite logical, as the approaches to "forecasting" an event in the future, based on the current state, with greater uncertainty in that future state the further one is away from it, have a lot of similarities (and some differences of course, although even bracketology now uses "computer models" to evaluate teams, so they'r'e more similar than they used to be).
 

mildone

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Their performance goes downhill the moment it does get wet.
Yes, wet performance in ANY normal street tire is worse than dry performance.

But good summer performance tires are also plenty good in wet conditions as long as the temps are over 45F. I did a track day on street tires in the rain an drizzle and had no problem with speeds up to around 145mph in the wet. Just gotta adjust all inputs, throttle, steering and braking, to match the conditions - keep everything smooth.

But in the cold, summer performance tires on wet surfaces or snow is like being on ice in sneakers. Zero grip.

Conversely, my winter tires, Michelin Pilot Alpin PA4, are surprisingly good in cold and wet conditions. On temps just above freezing, I suspect they'd be better on wet roads than the summer tires would be on dry roads (at that temp) even my summer tires Michelin Pilot Sport 4s. I should've had the tires swapped in December, but got lazy about it, and up until a few weeks ago or so, most weeks had a day with warm enough weather to drive safely. And I have other cars to get from point A to point B.
 

mikemarc1

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I don't even see what's unhinged about it. Seemed like a fair, logical question. There was no ranting and raving - just asking a question.

Agree. Just think it was grumpy Bac being grumpy Bac. Maybe cause of the hoops loss, who knows.
 

mildone

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That makes no sense. Why would water on a road at 37F affect a car differently from water on a road at 42F? The properties of water are no different at those temperatures - is there some property of the tires that changes below 40F?
Yes, it's not about the water on the road, it's about the tire's rubber compounds.

High performance summer tires are blended for much stickier higher grip than one can achieve w/all-season or winter tires, both of which have different rubber compounds specific to their purpose. In the cold, the summer tires stiffen up and lose their grip on the surface. Thus I have both winter/summer tires for both my performance cars.

I was out driving on a 45F day back in January (on the summer tires) that was closer to 40F up in the Long Valley area, when I got up there. I had to be very light on the throttle at every stoplight or stop sign to avoid spinning the wheels. That's how bad the grip gets. I suspect that, if one is able to keep the tire temperatures high, it becomes less of a problem. But that's not really possible driving on roads where cannot drive super fast the whole time, and one has to slow and/or stop periodically.

There's other concerns as well. Years back, I got lazy about moving the MS3's summer tires to the basement when I swapped them off for the winter tires. I left them in the unheated garage all Winter. Unfortunately, that turned out to be a very cold winter.

When I swapped the summer tires back on in late spring, and did some typical "enthusiastic" driving, they almost immediately started cracking and chunks of rubber started coming of the treads. This was something I'd read about online from other drivers, so normally I hauled the tires down to the basement.

Contacted Tire Rack about it and wound up exchanging emails with some of their engineers. The conclusion was: don't do that (leave them out in the cold all Winter). They offered to replace them free, but I felt it was my fault since I already knew not to do what I did. So I declined and paid for a replacement set. Have to say I thought they were pretty cool about the whole thing to even offer. OTOH, I've bought a lot of tires, and a few sets of expensive wheels, from them over the years - so it was probably just good business.
 

DJ Spanky

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But good summer performance tires are also plenty good in wet conditions as long as the temps are over 45F. I did a track day on street tires in the rain an drizzle and had no problem with speeds up to around 145mph in the wet. Just gotta adjust all inputs, throttle, steering and braking, to match the conditions - keep everything smooth.
They've improved - '87 Monte Carlo SS had Eagle GT's, and they sucked in wet weather.
 

mildone

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They've improved - '87 Monte Carlo SS had Eagle GT's, and they sucked in wet weather.
Yes, the state of the art in tire construction has improved quite a lot since then. I think auto-racing has driven a lot of R&D that eventually made it's way down to road tires. Stuff like endurance racing has driven a lot of automotive tech R&D in general.
 

bac2therac

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I thought it was actually quite logical, as the approaches to "forecasting" an event in the future, based on the current state, with greater uncertainty in that future state the further one is away from it, have a lot of similarities (and some differences of course, although even bracketology now uses "computer models" to evaluate teams, so they'r'e more similar than they used to be).

Im actually making my own analysis. You specifically say you are not forecasting
 

RU848789

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Im actually making my own analysis. You specifically say you are not forecasting
Poor comparison. Anyone with a modicum of knowledge of college basketball can put together bracket analysis and do reasonably well; you do better than most because you've invested a ton of time analyzing the data and have an experience base with what the selection committee is looking for. 99% of the world cannot do the same for weather forecasts without help from the internet models and forecasts that are available. And no I don't create forecasts, but I provide forecasts from very good professionals, with cogent commentary and analysis (and I give people a jump on likely forecast changes based on model analysis and discussion with pros/hobbyists on line) - and I don't think people care whether they're my forecasts or not, as they're just looking for decent, up-to-date info on what's likely to occur. Like I said, in both cases the approach has many similarities and the forecasts get better and better as one has more data and we get closer to the "event."
 

RU848789

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Slept 2 hours and woke up, lol. Mt. Holly cut back a little (maybe 1") in some places, but not all on both the map and in the warnings ("4-6 inches with locally higher amounts" now for most). On the flip side, Channel 7 increased their general snowfall for the entire area from 4-8" to 5-9". Sleet is still a significant risk to these snowfall amounts, especially south of 276/195 and SE of the NJ TPK from 195 up to about the Raritan. And the 6Z NAM just came out and shows 4-7" N for most during Thursday with another 2-3" falling on Friday morning, for 6-10" for most from Philly to LBI and north of there. That's just one model though and others will be out shortly. In addition, radar is juicier than previously modeled and it looks like accumulating snow will arrive by 6 am for most of CNJ, which is an hour or two earlier than expected. Nap time for now.

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Thought the NWS did well on this storm too, especially capturing the max along/near 276/195 and just north of there. Impossible to predict how much more that thin strip got that everyone else, though. I had forgotten about these maps from the Rutgers Weather Center, as the site was down for awhile. Was also pretty happy with my prediction for my house as I said 12 hours before the storm, "Just for fun, I'll go with 3.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (3" snow equivalent) on Thursday, then 1.5" of snow on Friday over a long period..." and we got 3" of snow then 1" of sleet on Thursday, then 1.75" of snow on Friday for 5.75" combined snow/sleet.


snow_20210218_20210219.png
 

WhiteBus

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Thought the NWS did well on this storm too, especially capturing the max along/near 276/195 and just north of there. Impossible to predict how much more that thin strip got that everyone else, though. I had forgotten about these maps from the Rutgers Weather Center, as the site was down for awhile. Was also pretty happy with my prediction for my house as I said 12 hours before the storm, "Just for fun, I'll go with 3.5" of snow, then 1" of sleet (3" snow equivalent) on Thursday, then 1.5" of snow on Friday over a long period..." and we got 3" of snow then 1" of sleet on Thursday, then 1.75" of snow on Friday for 5.75" combined snow/sleet.


snow_20210218_20210219.png
Looking at the narrow band that way over performed from your friend in Conshy at 10.3 (most likely Chestnut Hill but close enough) on the map through to the coast in Monmouth at 9.5.
More amazing is less than 10 miles away the 2.3 is closest to me. Philly tops was 5.5 which is far NE. Not a shovel day by me at all. However the next morning very thin ice was a big deal. Its going to be 56 degrees tomorrow. Time to turn the page #s lol.
 

RU848789

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Looking at the narrow band that way over performed from your friend in Conshy at 10.3 (most likely Chestnut Hill but close enough) on the map through to the coast in Monmouth at 9.5.
More amazing is less than 10 miles away the 2.3 is closest to me. Philly tops was 5.5 which is far NE. Not a shovel day by me at all. However the next morning very thin ice was a big deal. Its going to be 56 degrees tomorrow. Time to turn the page #s lol.
Yeah, fascinating storm. See the pattern thread for the warm news next week...
 

e5fdny

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Hmmm, so the bump and grew a little concerned.

As you were...👍
 

WhiteBus

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Yeah, fascinating storm. See the pattern thread for the warm news next week...
I rode almost 400 miles last year in March on my bicycle. After last week I thought that was impossible. Now maybe not. You are a snow guy. I'm a wind guy. Nothing can screw up a bike ride on sunny day more than wind. 2020 was the worst wind year with a high percent of 15mph winds nearly every day. If they have data about calm winds in a single year last year has to be near the all time low
 
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