OT: Snow Thread For Feb 6th & 7th Super Bowl Sunday

[Tango Two]

NWS:

Tonight into Friday: Precipitation is expected to move in late tonight and continue through mid day Friday. For areas along and northwest of the Interstate-95 corridor, the precipitation is expected to be mostly snow through the morning commute before the rain/snow line begins to shift further northwest through the morning. Though accumulations are expected to be minor (see the forecast snow amount map below), slippery conditions will be possible during the morning commute.

Saturday night into Sunday: The next system is expected Saturday night through Sunday. At this point it looks to be mostly snow across our region. There is still considerable uncertainty with snow amounts, but our current forecast has up to 3 inches, with the highest of those amounts likely coming on the Coastal Plains of Delmarva and New Jersey. This could result in slippery conditions, especially Sunday morning. (NOTE: The map below only covers tonight's event, it does not yet cover the Saturday night/Sunday event!)

 

[Tango Two]

If you want snow Superbowl Sunday, the trend on all models is your friend right now. The 12z NAM is leading the way but all others have also trended closer to shore including the euro. This is a fast mover so it's not the same as the previous storm. The next 24-48 hours will be critical to determining it's track and if it indeed does strike the region with rare back to back weeks of plowable snow.

 

[bac2therac]

Gfs was just 3-6 verbatim..we track

 

[WhiteBus]

This has BUST written all over it! 😂

 

[bac2therac]

Lee Goldberg 2-4

We track

 

[RUPete]

This has BUST written all over it! 😂

For Philly! I think I need to move there if it keeps busting.

 

[retired711]

This has BUST written all over it! 😂

Right now, the NWS is projecting about a half-inch from the Saturday night storm for South Jersey and Southeast Pa. (that is, where you and I live). But the storm may be more serious further to the north. It won't be a bust for us, because there is nothing to bust; the NWS is not projecting significant snow for us.

 

[RUPete]

Too much agreement too close to the event. We’ll probably get measurable snow, just glad the bulk is on Sunday.

 

[retired711]

For Philly! I think I need to move there if it keeps busting.

A sensible position! The Philly area gets less snow, and has cheaper real estate prices.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Wildwood never gets snow

 

[RocktheRac]

Where is the Snow Wizard?

 

[DJ Spanky]

This has BUST written all over it! 😂

Nothing wrong with a nice bust.

 

[WhiteBus]

For Philly! I think I need to move there if it keeps busting.

Philly and Northern Delaware have beat the snowfall forecasts for years.

 

[RocktheRac]

Speaking of busts, the Hillsborough Deli has a special on 4 inch subs this weekend. The slogan is get a 4 inch sub and you won't realize how satisfied you will be with 4 inches.

 

[WhiteBus]

Right now, the NWS is projecting about a half-inch from the Saturday night storm for South Jersey and Southeast Pa. (that is, where you and I live). But the storm may be more serious further to the north. It won't be a bust for us, because there is nothing to bust; the NWS is not projecting significant snow for us.

If they forecast next to nothing you are right. Unlike earlier this week

 

[WhiteBus]

Nothing wrong with a nice bust.

Maybe you should posts a few examples!!

 

[RU848789]

Been talking about this threat in the other storm thread and was about to post a thread on the pattern we're in for the next few weeks, plus this storm, when I saw this thread pop up. So I made that one about the pattern only and will talk about Sunday here.

The one comment about this Sunday's event, from a pattern perspective is that it's a great example of how the pattern can be snowy. The "blocking" in place (which we've had for a few weeks and was key to this past week's major snowstorm) generally means storms are forced to move under the block from our west and can't cut into the confluent flow from the north, meaning it's very unlikely we'll get a storm cutting inland to our west, which is a rain track for all of us - which we saw a bunch of the last two winters. The blocking, though, can also lead to suppression of storms to our south (March 2016 iirc, where it looked like we were going to get several snowstorms and they all ended up south of our area).

Sunday's possible storm looked threatening a few days ago, then looked like it was going to be suppressed to our south the past couple of days, but was never suppressed so far south that a whiff was a given for us, and it is now looking somewhat threatening again, with most models showing at least a few inches of snow for the Philly-NJ-NYC corridor and some showing more than that (and a couple showing some or complete suppression still) - since we're within 84 hours of this sytem, we have more models to look at.

As for this week's event, we're still 72 hours from the event start (vs. the 7 am data inputs for today's 12Z models), and it's a bit early to show models, especially when there's nowhere near consensus, unlike the pretty strong consensus we had at 72 hours for at least a major (8-12" or more) snowstorm this past week. Honestly, I wouldn't be suprised to see a whiff, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see 2-4"/3-6" for most of us. The NAM's solution of 6-12" for most of our area is an outlier and unless we see other models showing that, I wouldn't worry. Yet. As an aside, this is a quick mover vs. the storm we just had, so its "ceiling" is likely 8-12" not the 18"-30" we saw for so many from this past storm.

By the way tomorrow's "event" is slightly more than nothing: maybe an inch or so for NW NJ/Poconos and Hudson Vally, but very little for the 95 corridor and <1" between 78 and 80, except well inland.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/201...nowstorm/page/24/?tab=comments#comment-269931

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54465-late-sat-26-sunrise-monday-28/page/10/

 

[RU848789]

Right now, the NWS is projecting about a half-inch from the Saturday night storm for South Jersey and Southeast Pa. (that is, where you and I live). But the storm may be more serious further to the north. It won't be a bust for us, because there is nothing to bust; the NWS is not projecting significant snow for us.

Yet. If some models are correct, you'll be getting several inches. Too much uncertainty to "forecast" that yet, so I doubt anyone will put out a snowfall map before tomorrow.

 

[bac2therac]

Right now, the NWS is projecting about a half-inch from the Saturday night storm for South Jersey and Southeast Pa. (that is, where you and I live). But the storm may be more serious further to the north. It won't be a bust for us, because there is nothing to bust; the NWS is not projecting significant snow for us.

That will change

 

[rurichdog]

I remember one of the weenies on americanwx, right at the onset of Sunday's Miller B, posted a GFS run 7 days out that was a bullseye/clown map right on top of NYC. 30+ inches. The image has been lost to the interwebz, but here we are 4 days out and the NAM is doing NAM things.

 

[bac2therac]

Good writeup Numbers

This one could easily whiff if the phase doesnt happen or it could give 6 inches.

Wont be a big storm but just enough to refresh the lost snowpack from today and tomorrow

 

[WhiteBus]

A sensible position! The Philly area gets less snow, and has cheaper real estate prices.

I met friends in Wlimington Delaware this past fall to do a bicycle ride. First of all I've never been in Wilmington before. I got there early so I took a spin through town. Very impressed and very clean. A theme that would repeat itself on a 60 mile round trip all day long. Such beautiful places. Passed through New Castle then on to Delaware City to get on the canal bike trail to Chesapeake City MD. After I got home I was looking at home prices and taxes. Delaware is by far the best value in the North East and it isn't close!!

 

[Tango Two]

Precipitation begins Friday morning, with at least a wintry mix to start, changing to rain around midday. Mostly Sunny skies Saturday with Wind Chills below Freezing.

Snow possible early Sunday through Sunday night

 

[WhiteBus]

Precipitation begins Friday morning, with at least a wintry mix to start, changing to rain around midday. Mostly Sunny skies Saturday with Wind Chills below Freezing.

Snow possible early Sunday through Sunday night

Sunday night? This is over by noon. Fast storm. In and out. Sunny by afternoon

 

[T2Kplus20]

Lee Goldberg 2-4

We track

Track it! I will post any WW info that comes in.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

Nothing wrong with a nice bust.

Now there's 36 to 38 inches I would appreciate. Not counting the Wind Chill Headlights of course.

 

[retired711]

I met friends in Wlimington Delaware this past fall to do a bicycle ride. First of all I've never been in Wilmington before. I got there early so I took a spin through town. Very impressed and very clean. A theme that would repeat itself on a 60 mile round trip all day long. Such beautiful places. Passed through New Castle then on to Delaware City to get on the canal bike trail to Chesapeake City MD. After I got home I was looking at home prices and taxes. Delaware is by far the best value in the North East and it isn't close!!

Delaware has always felt a little too southern for my taste -- it was a slave state before the Civil War, although to be fair it had few slaves and never seriously considered secession (although perhaps it would have if Maryland had left the Union, as a lot of its citizens wanted to.) I have the impression that governmental services are skimpy, but naturally that doesn't matter to everybody. I am a Northerner through and through, I guess, although I must say that my Southern experiences have been far from terrible, and I'm glad I've had them.

 

[RU848789]

This is looking more and more like a coastal special with several inches (3-6"?) at the coast, a few inches (1/3/2-4") near/along 95 and maybe only an inch or two well inland of 95. But still 60 hours from tonight's model runs (7 pm data input) to the start of precip in the area, so that could still change substantially, especially given the lack of model consensus at this point and how much even individual models have been jumping around. A total whiff is still possible for everyone, with the least likely to whiff being the coast.

 

[RUevolution36]

I met friends in Wlimington Delaware this past fall to do a bicycle ride. First of all I've never been in Wilmington before. I got there early so I took a spin through town. Very impressed and very clean. A theme that would repeat itself on a 60 mile round trip all day long. Such beautiful places. Passed through New Castle then on to Delaware City to get on the canal bike trail to Chesapeake City MD. After I got home I was looking at home prices and taxes. Delaware is by far the best value in the North East and it isn't close!!

Which part of town did you ride thru? Downtown Wilmington is sketchy at best. I spent a lot of time there for work.

 

[retired711]

Which part of town did you ride thru? Downtown Wilmington is sketchy at best. I spent a lot of time there for work.

One of the scarier events in my life was showing up for a blind date with a woman in central Wilmington. Not only was she crazy (no exaggeration), but the neighborhood was very, uh concerning. Why do I say she was crazy? She wanted me to drive with her to Phoenix that night to pick up stuff she had in storage. That's Phoenix, Arizona, folks.

 

[NickRU714]

WTF??? Why is it snowing??
I thought it was going to rain and melt this f'n snow??

 

[Scarlet dollar]

WTF??? Why is it snowing??
I thought it was going to rain and melt this f'n snow??

Where are you? It's raining in Monroe twp.

 

[jtung230]

WTF??? Why is it snowing??
I thought it was going to rain and melt this f'n snow??

It’s not just snowing, it’s coming down hard. Hopefully it all melts later. The belt on my snowblower snapped during the last storm. Replacement is coming on Tuesday. I’m certain it will guarantee no more snow after I fix it.

 

[Zak57]

Snowing hard in Montgomery right now.

 

[retired711]

It is definitely raining in Cherry Hill The weather forecaster should have quoted Bob Dylan ("A hard rain/is gonna fall.")

 

[WhiteBus]

Which part of town did you ride thru? Downtown Wilmington is sketchy at best. I spent a lot of time there for work.

From the Amtrak Train Station up Market Street to Rodney Square. Over to the TD Bank and back down another street to get to Frawley Stadium area where we all met up. The bike trail starts there. Streets in town were super clean. Not a bum to be found. Not many people in general like most business districts during Covid.
Bike trail all the way down to Chesapeake City was impressive.

 

[bac2therac]

Did everyone survive the snow shower?

 

[WhiteBus]

Did everyone survive the snow shower?

Just got done shoveling the rain off the sidewalk. Damn I'm exhausted!

 

[RUPete]

Did everyone survive the snow shower?

Barely made it into work. But I am here...in one piece, thankfully.

 

[RocktheRac]

The landscapers came by not once but twice to salt the roads in my complex,