OT: Stock and Investment Talk

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
I do suspect that with this next round of stimulus checks the high multiple/pre earnings/high revenue growth stocks, will go on another run.

I noted I'm pretty much out of the speculative plays, but I'm going to keep an eye out and likely dabble again in the next couple months.

Still holding crytpo, but much more streamlined. GBTC, ETHE, RIOT and BFCH are the extent of it and I think I will keep it that way, just trade around that group.
 
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,850
3,441
113
I do suspect that with this next round of stimulus checks the high multiple/pre earnings/high revenue growth stocks, will go on another run.

I noted I'm pretty much out of the speculative plays, but I'm going to keep an eye out and likely dabble again in the next couple months.

Still holding crytpo, but much more streamlined. GBTC, ETHE, RIOT and BFCH are the extent of it and I think I will keep it that way, just trade around that group.
If those cryptos go up, everything will go up. No need to add more names just to add. Keep it simple! I'm set with my crypto portfolio as well.

Happy to look up any FMV for you.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
I'll hang on to XLE for a while longer, but with so many undervalued tech and innovative companies, it's hard to go too much into traditional value. Our value play is mostly focused on small cap value, which historically outperforms large cap value.

As for T directly, do you really see HBO Max competing with the big boys (Netflix, Disney+, and Prime)? Not all streaming services will succeed.
It's like the EV discussion, where a company like RIDE doesn't need to have earnings or rev's similar to TSLA, they just need to carve out their niche and produce earnings.

So will HBO ever be as big as the big 3? probably not, but the HBO name does carry weight, and they do produce worthwhile content. If the next era of TV is via streaming, and HBO produces another show as popular as Soprano's or Game of Thrones, then you will see their #'s jump in a big way.
 

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
If those cryptos go up, everything will go up. No need to add more names just to add. Keep it simple! I'm set with my crypto portfolio as well.

Happy to look up any FMV for you.
cool appreciate it. I did buy back into RIOT on the way down, and I think I will add to ETHE monday which looks to be down too much relative to the price of ETH itself.

What is the FMV for IIPR? They were down after missing on earnings, and then went down further along with the market, but still they make money, and their growth, as well as their growth prospects is fantastic.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,850
3,441
113
It's like the EV discussion, where a company like RIDE doesn't need to have earnings or rev's similar to TSLA, they just need to carve out their niche and produce earnings.

So will HBO ever be as big as the big 3? probably not, but the HBO name does carry weight, and they do produce worthwhile content. If the leg of TV is via streaming, and HBO produces another show as popular as Soprano's or Game of Thrones, then you will see their #'s jump in a big way.
Some info on T. Current FMV is $36.

A New Chapter in an Ugly Story as AT&T Reaches a Deal for DirecTV
Analyst Note Updated Feb 25, 2021

AT&T has reached an agreement to restructure its U.S. television business, selling a stake in the operation to a private equity fund run by TPG. The deal isn’t large relative to the size of AT&T core wireless and media businesses. The firm disclosed that U.S. television services generated about $4 billion of EBITDA in 2020, equal to about 7% of the total for the year. It likely generated around 12% of free cash flow, a percentage we project to rapidly decline. But we suspect the firm is anxious to beginning putting the DirecTV mistake—and the investor attention it commands—in the rearview mirror. We are maintaining our $36 fair value estimate and we believe AT&T shares are attractive.

In our view, this deal is a win for AT&T given the paucity of options likely available. The deal structure provides the potential to extract more than $16 billion in cash via upfront payments and preferred interest payments from New DirecTV. The actual amount will be lower as AT&T agreed to cover losses on NFL Sunday Ticket through 2022, but it could receive cash equal to around 3.5-4.0 times 2020 EBITDA, albeit over a period of years. We doubt that outside investors were willing to pay a substantially higher multiple to acquire the business outright given recent customer losses.

TPG essentially will get paid around $180 million and receive a 30% interest in New DirecTV for pulling $1.8 billion in cash flow forward for AT&T, while helping to provide legitimacy to allow New DirecTV to raise debt capital and resume as a standalone entity. TPG will only capture meaningful upside for its efforts if it can help New DirecTV stabilize its business and pursue other strategic alternatives, perhaps even facilitating the long-rumored merger with Dish Network’s television operations. In any event, TPG has a strong incentive to make occur quickly to get over the hump of payouts due to AT&T and realize value for its investors.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers | Updated Dec 23, 2020
We are cutting our fair value estimate modestly to $36 from $37 after increasing our expectations for spending on wireless spectrum. We now assume AT&T spends more than $20 billion in 2021 and 2022 on spectrum licenses, primarily at the FCC’s C-Band auction. We expect several of the same trends that have hit AT&T’s businesses recently will remain in place, yielding very modest wireless revenue growth despite increased network capacity. Our fair value estimate equates to roughly 7.5 times our 2021 EBITDA forecast.

In wireless, we expect AT&T will modestly gain market share through 2024. We believe postpaid revenue per phone customer, which bottomed in 2018 with the transition to unsubsidized rate plans wrapping up, will grow modestly over the next several years amid a relatively stable competitive environment. We estimate AT&T generates more than $1 billion in revenue annually from connected devices, such as cars. We model this revenue doubling over the next five years, but this estimate is highly uncertain. We expect total wireless revenue will increase 4% annually on average through 2024, with wireless margins holding roughly steady over this period, as pricing rationalization and high-margin connected device revenue offset rising network operating costs. Lumpiness in smartphone sales, which generate no profit, will cause volatility in reported margins.

At WarnerMedia, we expect 2% average annual growth during the 2020-24 period, with revenue down 13% in 2020 but rebounding gradually thereafter. We model growth, absent the rebound from the pandemic, accelerating in later years as HBO Max gains acceptance and offsets weakness in the traditional television business. We don’t have high expectations for the advertising business over the long term, despite AT&T’s efforts to improve ad monetization, as consumer behavior shifts away from ad-supported formats. We also expect that increased investments in content required to fend off newer entrants will pressure margins over time.

With the entertainment and enterprise businesses shrinking, we expect consolidated revenue growth of less than 2% annually over the next five years. We also expect the consumer business will struggle to maintain profitability in future years as the television business continues to shrink. In total, we expect AT&T will produce modest EBITDA margin expansion, with capital spending increasing gradually over the next five years.
 
  • Like
Reactions: RU-05

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,850
3,441
113
cool appreciate it. I did buy back into RIOT on the way down, and I think I will add to ETHE monday which looks to be down too much relative to the price of ETH itself.

What is the FMV for IIPR? They were down after missing on earnings, and then went down further along with the market, but still they make money, and their growth, as well as their growth prospects is fantastic.
Play the RIOT yo-yo! It is down to $40, but will pop back to $80 once BTC gets close to $60k again. Then sell RIOT and wait for the next pull back. Rinse and repeat! :)

IIPR:

Morningstar's Analysis
Valuation Mar 05, 2021
IIPR is at a 14% Premium.
Fair Value: 152.15
Last Close: 173.74
Uncertainty: High
Economic Moat: Narrow
 

mdk01

Heisman Winner
Aug 18, 2011
12,862
7,135
113
Now many people bought in April, so the luck of timing has passed. We bought XLE (energy ETF with a ton of Exxon and Chervon) in late 2020, so we caught some of the up.
I'd say that investment that returns 10% qualified dividends and the sale of which would subject 50% of the proceeds to capital gains taxes is a screaming hold. I realize that may heresy on this thread.
 

mdk01

Heisman Winner
Aug 18, 2011
12,862
7,135
113
Play the RIOT yo-yo! It is down to $40, but will pop back to $80 once BTC gets close to $60k again. Then sell RIOT and wait for the next pull back. Rinse and repeat! :)

IIPR:

Morningstar's Analysis
Valuation Mar 05, 2021
IIPR is at a 14% Premium.
Fair Value: 152.15
Last Close: 173.74
Uncertainty: High
Economic Moat: Narrow
Got stopped out of IIPR last week at 180.
 

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
Play the RIOT yo-yo! It is down to $40, but will pop back to $80 once BTC gets close to $60k again. Then sell RIOT and wait for the next pull back. Rinse and repeat! :)

IIPR:

Morningstar's Analysis
Valuation Mar 05, 2021
IIPR is at a 14% Premium.
Fair Value: 152.15
Last Close: 173.74
Uncertainty: High
Economic Moat: Narrow
Interesting, given IIPR currently makes money, and is expected to see significant earnings growth I'd expect they'd have a better FMV.

Wonder if that is a REIT thing?

How bout a pure cannabis play like CRLBF?
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,850
3,441
113
Interesting, given IIPR currently makes money, and is expected to see significant earnings growth I'd expect they'd have a better FMV.

Wonder if that is a REIT thing?

How bout a pure cannabis play like CRLBF?
CRLBF = $11.21 FMV
So it is slightly overvalued. Once again, the FMV process at Morningstar is conservative and traditional. I think it is a value benchmark, but probably understates emerging or innovative potential.
 

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
Was running through the E-Trade stock screener and came up with a potential speculative play that has thus far been running in the wrong direction.

BXRX, came public late 2019 at around $6, went up to $8, dipped to $2 in March, bounced back to $4, fell back to around $1, bounced back to $2 and is now just a little over $1.

In addition to the Covid dip, it has issued new shares multiple times which has led to corresponding price drops. Now the question is why are they needing to issue new shares so often this early in the process, and my guess is Covid. Which hopefully we are moving on from in the months ahead.

Currently at $85 mil market cap. Rev's of just 500K in 2020(again probably Covid related). But current estimates are for $11 mil in 2021, $33 mil in 2022, and $106 mil by 2024. Also expected to be profitable by 2024.

So if they can stop the new stock issuance bleeding, and come fairly close to those expectations, this one has a chance to provide significant returns.
 
Last edited:

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
CRLBF = $11.21 FMV
So it is slightly overvalued. Once again, the FMV process at Morningstar is conservative and traditional. I think it is a value benchmark, but probably understates emerging or innovative potential.
One thing I heard with the cannabis plays was estimates for future growth were not including those states, like NJ which recently legalized, never mind those states which have not yet legalized but likely will in upcoming years. So the current estimates for future growth, which are already great, might prove to be significantly lower then what they actually prove to be.

I actually sold both IIPR and CRLBF during the selloff, . In regards to IIPR I had a recent purchase over $200 so overall I was pretty even there, but CRLBF I did very well with. If it cools off a bit more I will surely jump back in.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: T2Kplus20

RU-05

All American
Jun 25, 2015
6,947
4,781
113
I'd say that investment that returns 10% qualified dividends and the sale of which would subject 50% of the proceeds to capital gains taxes is a screaming hold. I realize that may heresy on this thread.
Aight man, we get it.

But I'd argue against the necessity of holding because of the tax concern. Let say for instance you bought QS in early Dec at $42, should you have sold a couple weeks later at $100, taken those profits and paid the taxes on those profits? Or held throughout only to see it fall back to around $42?

I get that is an extreme example, I get there is no dividend consideration, but I don't think you necessarily hold just because you are concerned about taxes or because of the dividend.
 

Njbound1

Redshirt
Jan 29, 2020
75
75
18
Be careful with the Morningstar fair market values. I would take them with a grain of salt. For instance, they currently have GameStop at $145/share. A company that was trading as low as $3 before the Reddit madness, and has declining revenues. There is no possible justification for such a value.
 

T2Kplus20

Heisman Winner
Gold Member
May 2, 2007
10,850
3,441
113
Be careful with the Morningstar fair market values. I would take them with a grain of salt. For instance, they currently have GameStop at $145/share. A company that was trading as low as $3 before the Reddit madness, and has declining revenues. There is no possible justification for such a value.
+1
There is a big difference between actual MS ratings vs. Q ratings. Obviously, they can't do FMV models for all stocks, so for many of the smaller ones, they just use statistical techniques and not a full analysis. Most of the stocks talked about on the past few pages of this thread are full MS FMV ratings.

GME is a Q rating.
 

Latest posts