OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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The fact that Tesla’s valuation of $660B is close to the total size of the U.S. and European auto markets is absolutely mind-boggling. It also doesn’t surprise me that Tesla posted solid 1Q21 deliveries because I would bet they pushed some 4Q20 deliveries from December to January. Is that delivery detail available? Musk knows how to play the game.He also said to convert GameStop to sell cryptos. Remember, it’s entertainment. Here is article about TSLA going to $150.
A Roth Capital analyst says Tesla’s stock is worth $150 — which would be a 78% discount
Craig Irwin of Roth Capital said he's bullish on sales of electric vehicles, but the possibility of Tesla beating estimates is "clearly already in valuation."www.cnbc.com
It’s not uncommon to “manage” quarterly deliveries in order to satisfy Wall Street. Tesla’s stock had such a huge run-up in 2020 that it would not surprise me if some deliveries got pushed to 2021 to protect against a soft quarter. This practice happens in many industries where sales are delayed for one reason or another, although companies can get themselves in hot water if they play too fast and loose. But don’t get me wrong this is not my attempt to knock Tesla/Musk.
Q1 has always been soft. In the previous 2 years, Q1 deliveries were less than the previous Q4. The fact that they exceeded Q4 #s without any new S and X being delivered is a very good sign for the future. Add to that, the quarter was 2 days shorter, supply chain issues, and this is an absolute home run.
3 more record breaking quarters on the horizon. Book it.
3 more record breaking quarters on the horizon. Book it.
It's not, and they didn't. There was a huge push during Q4 2020 to hit that 500K mark. Lots of incentives were offered to consumers to take delivery in December.
Definitely in play.
Lots of variables though.
Model Y will ramp up to full production in Shanghai some time this year, but when?
How quickly does new S and X production ramp in Fremont?
Are there any delays with the new 4680 cells? In addition to the pilot line in Fremont, Berlin and Austin will each be producing 4680s.
How many vehicles do we get out of Austin are Berlin this year?
If all goes well, 1 million is possible. In 2022, we'll see 2 million+.
A lot of pumping but think the hype is over. Now the markets want results. Let’s see if it can deliver.
Amazes me that a guy like Rob Maurer can be long TSLA stock/derivatives with his YouTube channel and on top of the daily pumping makes a few bucks off affiliate product links. Worse than CW releasing an article or going on CNBC every time TSLA drops.
About 1 million cars for Telsa in 2021. Over 2 million in 2022. Sorry this makes you so angry.
I have no idea why you think I’m angry. I took emotion out of investing 15+ years ago. And, you act like I’m the only one in the World that won’t touch TSLA at current levels. There are professionals far smarter than me that laugh at TSLA’s valuation. Regardless, I absolutely believe the SEC has fallen asleep during the age of the internet as demonstrated by the ability of one person to mobilize an army on Reddit in order to profit in the tens of millions - and apparently it’s totally legal (although there is a pile of lawsuits).
The TSLA haters would like that! Doesn't fit into their 3 Little Bears narrative. The more I learn about the company the more I am impressed.
Funny how anyone that disagrees with TSLA’s valuation is a “hater” or “angry”. Forget the fact that its valuation is close to the total size of the U.S. and European automotive markets, even though it’s market share is tiny. I’m totally impressed by Tesla - just not at the current share price. It will either take years to grow into its valuation or show me the flying taxis and I’m all in.
If anyone is interesting in the OTC hearing aid market, INND is about to release their products retail in the coming weeks. They have an interview on Sunday on Fox Business and Bloomberg to release the name of their first top 250 retailer with their products. Trading for about 4 cents a share right now, but could get hot and make a lot of money.
That would be incredibly impressive especially considering other EV cars are about to enter the market as well. This would push the stock up above $1,500. Would love that to happen. 💧💧💧💵💵💵💰💰💰
I don't think you're angry, but you've certainly spewed some classic TSLAQ fud. Intentionally or out of ignorance, only you know that.
As for the valuation, tsla is growing exponentially, you're thinking linearly. Do a simple battery/revenue model. Start with a conservative 500 Gwh of batteries for autos in 2025. Go from there. It gets big, fast.
You want to factory in autonomy? It gets bigger, faster. Maybe you think autonomy only has a 50% chance by 2025. Ok, so shouldn't that 50% be factored into today's price? Same goes for licencing software, insurance, energy storage, solar, robotaxi, and all future innovations.
Keep in mind they are battery constrained and will be for next few years. The good news is they plan on producing their own cells at a ridiculous rate and have huge contracts with the world's 3 biggest battery suppliers. It's all about the batteries now.
Nice haven't had a solid stock recommendation in here in a while. A penny stock no less. Thumbs up.
FYI - I have been looking into BABA and OTKA. BABA is really undervalued right now, but it caught up in the China/US political whims. If it wasn't for that, I would buy it in a heartbeat. MS FMV is $303. Trading at a huge discount today.
OTKA seems like a solid company, but nothing is wow'ing me with it.
I recently bought BABA, BIDU, PDD, all seem super cheap based on earnings both current and especially future given the growth expectations. A US company with that level growth would be selling for 2x or more of the current levels But you are right the political implications are keeping them down
Will that pressure alleviate? I surely don't know, could very well get worse, but the fundies, imo, suggest it's a worth a flyer.
Projections on top of projections.
But I don't see how there is any way TSLA isn't a dominant player in the sector for at least the next 5 or so years. And by dominant, I mean dominant.
Think there are some good opportunities in the spac mix. There are likely some good companies getting dragged down by the entire group sinking. Not sure when that pressure eases but I own a little and will look to get in on some other positions as well.
If you think that, they need to do a lot more than 100% growth YOY. They have strong market share in EV but not moving the needle in total vehicle sales.
How about revolutionize the way vehicles are manufactured, drastically reduce the cost of transportation, be a global leader in the fight against climate change, be the first company to solve full autonomy, and inspire humanity for a better tomorrow. I know, still not enough for you.
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In an article from yesterday:
Analysts at Morgan Stanley led by Adam Jones said, "We believe auto investors face greater risk not owning Tesla shares in their portfolio than owning Tesla shares."
I say this with peace and love, but at this point, if you can't see what is happening, you're f#cking blind.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley led by Adam Jones said, "We believe auto investors face greater risk not owning Tesla shares in their portfolio than owning Tesla shares."
I say this with peace and love, but at this point, if you can't see what is happening, you're f#cking blind.
Human behavior is fascinating. Tesla’s cult following will have the world believe that investing fundamentals don’t matter. Yet, it just so happens that the loudest cult members are also TSLA investors (i.e., CW, Kramer, etc.). It is no different than my buddy that owns a multi-million dollar business tied to the convention industry. Lately, he’s all over every social media outlet talking up the convention boom that’s on the horizon, how conventions will be better and bigger than ever, how vaccines solved COVID, there’s no substitute for human interaction, etc. Why does he say these things? Because he has to unless he wants his business to die and his million dollar home to go into foreclosure. But, are conventions with thousands of people from all over the world rubbing elbows in a conference center a good idea? My point is - everyone has an agenda. When it comes to TSLA, I do not. I can’t say the same for others on this board.
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