Market share. Ford sold 2mm in the US in 2020. Total passenger vehicle sold worldwide in 2019 was 65.5mm. If you think the valuation is cheap, they need a bigger market share than 6% in 2023.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Up 20% today.
You really should have told us about this one in Dec. It's up 2.7 mil percent.
I'll be happy with a measly 1000% from here.
If the entire auto industry wasn't in agreement that the future of the industry is all about EV, those #'s would carry more weight.
I was going to say something 2 weeks ago at 1.5 cents a share, but they hadn’t made any specific announcements yet. They tweeted today a second retailer will be announced May 3rd and will have 12 interviews across the year with updates. There is virtually no cost comparable in store competition and will have Dr Scholls style kiosks along with their app to test people’s hearing. My best guess for the first retailer is BJs or Walgreens.
I’m not a huge penny stock guy, but the news around this, the potential OTC Bill being passed, and business model bought me over to risk a few grand.
XLE down 1.6% as of now. Been trending sideways for the past 3 weeks. Up 30% YTD, but down 6% over the past month.
Probably just a breather, so I'm trying not to be overly reactive. But I don't like lagging the indexes.
Gotta think a little longer term (at least for me and an ETF). We assess it at the end of every month. I think the sector will have legs for another quarter or two.
As for individual companies, that may be a different story. XOM likely has more room to growth, but CVX is closing in on FMV (which is $115).
Up 1.43% with my Fidelity/tech value account. :)
E-trade looks to be 0.7%'ish. Waiting for one fund to post.
Crypto account up 4.69%
Good day.
Too much money (passive and active) flowing into the market for a true bear to emerge. Value tech crushed it this week. Spec tech/growth lagged.
Hold on to the big 5 - AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, FB, and AMZN.
I increased my stock holding on GOOG, MSFT, FB and AMZN a week ago. Normally sell at their high but due to the sky high techs getting hit, more cash would flow more into the established techs. Still holding my CRM, NFLX, AMD, AAPL, PYPL, NVDA.
Can you provide some context? Why is 35k in month good? China is TSLA biggest market.
CNBC said more money came into the market last 5 months than the previous 12 years combined. That’s crazy.
Because MIC model Y is just starting to ramp, so expect that monthly run rate to grow. The ramp is occurring faster than expected. It's reasonable to assume Shanghai delivers 400K this year. Fremont should do 500K+. Throw in limited production from Austin and Berlin, and it's close to 1 million.
Ok, but don’t you think it’s just stealing model 3 buyers to model Y. Look at the drop off from S and X when the 3 came out. Don’t see it as a big change to existing product line.
That would be true if the #'s were plateauing, but they're not. China is the biggest EV market on earth. There's been rumors for a 2nd China factory, but nothing verifiable. Regardless, plenty of room for growth in both 3 and Y in China. Shanghai will only produce around 500K at full capacity. It's not the behemoth that Berlin and Austin will be.
Shanghai will eventually (2022-23) be expanded for the $25K compact. Total capacity 1 million+.
Since you mentioned S and X, Fremont plant will be going to double shift to accommodate the high demand for the refreshed Model S and X.
I said it before. If they can produce a nice car at 25k, I would be a buyer of the car and stock. The Y starts at 50k. I guess it’s better margin car for Tesla. In terms of S and X production, doubling zero is still zero. I think they produced zero S and X in Q1.
+1
Demand for Tesla models in the US and China is booming! Nice to see that production capacity is scaling up so quickly. What a great company.
👍
Capacity is not zero for those models in Fremont. D'uh. You are confusing capacity vs production. Production was paused for the redesign. Capacity is increasing as per Belly.
Reread and think more.
I was clearly just busting belly’s balls. Don’t be so defensive. Do you really think there will be mass demand for a 6 figure car?
Define mass demand.
I don't think S and X will move the needle all that much, but are both very high margin. Plus, if a customer is willing to pay 6 figures for a vehicle, there's a good chance they also purchase the $10K FSD add-on, which is basically 100% profit. There's definitely pent-up demand for the refreshed versions and customers willing to do "the Tesla stretch" (purchasing a vehicle normally out of your price range). That's what I did when I bought my 3. Zero regrets.
Also, there were rumors of refreshed S and X for about a year prior to the official announcement from Tesla. I think it's fair to assume some customers were waiting for the refreshed models before pulling the trigger.
To be clear, big needle mover? No. The 6 figure vehicle market is tiny with plenty of established brands. But, I'm confident S and X will have a piece of that pie for the foreseeable future. It's great for branding.
The first $25K will come out of Shanghai.
The Y is cheaper to produce than the 3. More efficient wiring, thermal management of the pack, and single piece rear casting on the Y which eliminated 300 robots from the body shop. 170 parts, down to 1.
All Tesla vehicles will eventually be made with a single piece front and rear casting, along with a structural battery pack. The structural battery pack incorporates the batteries into the structure of the car rather than carting the batteries like a sack of potatoes. No more battery modules. Expect the Berlin and Austin model Y to be about 500 lbs lighter than the current Y. More range with less batteries. Higher margins. That's big.
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@BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap
Good summary on your last two replies. I agree with everything you said there. The margins on Y should be better because they are not offering the “standard” range model because of initial demand. Same product roll out strategy as 3. Probably roll out a more affordable Y later in the year. The one thing we can still disagree on is the styling of the Y. I still think it’s like a bulked up Prius. LOL
Good summary on your last two replies. I agree with everything you said there. The margins on Y should be better because they are not offering the “standard” range model because of initial demand. Same product roll out strategy as 3. Probably roll out a more affordable Y later in the year. The one thing we can still disagree on is the styling of the Y. I still think it’s like a bulked up Prius. LOL
This shows just how far ahead Tesla is than other companies. Tremendous innovation. Must own company.
The big 5 will likely have a nice long runway for a while. Like CRM and the entire semiconductor sector. Also still undervalued - NOW, ADBE, TWLO, TDOC, VEEV, CRWD and a bunch of others that are crushing their #'s.
BABA is tremendously undervalued, but it is caught up on government politics, so you will need a good stomach for that.
Absolutely. Look no further than the structural battery pack. VW, Ford, GM, etc.., are boasting about their future battery modules. Tesla is already done with modules. Don't need them. Moving on to better technology. Their vertically integrated business model allows them to pivot faster. They don't just have the lead, the lead is growing.
I think this is the problem most investors have with TSLA stock and current investors. If you read what I wrote, there are a lot of assumptions that needs to be met. But you guys are assuming it’s done already. In another way to put it is that risk is not priced in or more downside than upside from here.
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