OT: Stock and Investment Talk

RU-05

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Has Sofi finally found it's footing? Was down below $5. Currently at $7.60

Pretty sure it's finally out of that downward channel.
 

Steve91562

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Well we are hearing that AMZN, WMT, some of the tech companies, have either stopped hiring, or have begun to lay people off.

Which could/should allow those workers to go to those areas of the economy which need it. Which could/should stop the wage increase spiral.
Yeah, theoretically. But there was an article today how Microsoft was doubling salaries to retain staff and Jamie Diamon just got a 50 million retention bonus because ... I don't know, they were scared he would leave and JPM would just -- poof -- disappear w/o him. Ha, ha, I worked with a couple lawyers in the past who are now corporate counsel of Fortune 500's. I'm not going to call it a scam -- lets just say it's very profitable. Damn, should hav e went into corporate law.
 

BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

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It's brought up.

But it's still a super high multiple.
Barely. Elon tweeting his stream of consciousness while taking a shit seems to be more important in a thread that is supposed to be about investing.

If a TTM multiple is the first thing you bring up for a company like this, you've probably missed the boat on other transformative, generational opportunities.
 

RU-05

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Yeah, theoretically. But there was an article today how Microsoft was doubling salaries to retain staff and Jamie Diamon just got a 50 million retention bonus because ... I don't know, they were scared he would leave and JPM would just -- poof -- disappear w/o him. Ha, ha, I worked with a couple lawyers in the past who are now corporate counsel of Fortune 500's. I'm not going to call it a scam -- lets just say it's very profitable. Damn, should hav e went into corporate law.
They shot down that $50m for Dimon.

Not sure about MSFT.

But at least at the lower end of the wage spectrum. The likes of AMZN and UPS definitely drove wages higher. That seems to be over.
 

RU-05

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Barely. Elon tweeting his stream of consciousness while taking a shit seems to be more important in a thread that is supposed to be about investing.

If a TTM multiple is the first thing you bring up for a company like this, you've probably missed the boat on other transformative, generational opportunities.
At it's current stock price, if it hit's the current 2025 EPS estimates, which is baking in a tripling of EPS, the stock would have a 35x multiple.

It has pretty consistently beaten over the last couple years, though not always, but it would have to beat dramatically over the next 3 years, to justify even the current stock price.
 

jtung230

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Have to wonder if Musk realizes the potential negative impact on Tesla should he complete the acquisition of Twitter and re-opens that forum to disruptive messengers that are perceived to be hostile to democracy. Teslas sales may drop off, per the reaction of its traditional support base, those middle and upper middle class prospective buyers. Amidst emerging EV options, those folks may boycott Musk/Tesla. Of those Tesla owners I know, they are markedly progressive, politically. Interesting dynamic will emerge.
Only if they have an option.
 

T2Kplus20

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Someone mentioned the other day about costs maintaining at an inflated level, and maybe I'm not quite grasping the concept, but if oil stays at $110, does that not mean inflation has leveled off? If oil drops to $80, would that not be deflationary.
Yes and yes. Oil pricing essentially pushes prices to a new plateau. It doesn't cause a price spiral, which people were worried about when wages were increasing so much last fall/winter.
 

RU-05

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BTC's chart is a pretty clear head and shoulder.

Now it has already come down off the 2nd shoulder. Not sure how bearish those formations typically imply.

Currently up over $30K.
 

T2Kplus20

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No doubt, again just pointing out that recovery from a down year takes more than 1 year to recoup.
Which is why using those leveraged ETFs are a great play after a downturn! They get you back into the positive column more quickly. :)
 

T2Kplus20

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SSO is just simple math. If the S&P drops 25-30%, why not switch to the SSO (or UPRO) to maximize the rally back to ATHs? Whether it takes 1 month, 1 year, or 3 years, the math and returns are the same.

We all know, it will be back at ATHs eventually.
 

RU-05

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Which is why using those leveraged ETFs are a great play after a downturn! They get you back into the positive column more quickly. :)
The guys who made the SARK ETF are also making a TARK(I think that's the ticker) a triple leveraged ETF.

They timed the SARK really well. Maybe they are timing the TARK just as well?

Edit: It's already out there, up 12% today.
 
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RU-05

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Krinsky who had been calling for S&P to 3900 for months is now calling 3400-3500 as the "ultimate" bottom.
 

T2Kplus20

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The guys who made the SARK ETF are also making a TARK(I think that's the ticker) a triple leveraged ETF.

They timed the SARK really well. Maybe they are timing the TARK just as well?

Edit: It's already out there, up 12% today.
The more I experience these leveraged plays, the more I like them.....at the right time. I am not a stock guy or a trader. So these ETFs allow me to get more juice out of market or sector plays. If you want to test one out, trying one during a bear market is the way to go.
 
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BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

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At it's current stock price, if it hit's the current 2025 EPS estimates, which is baking in a tripling of EPS, the stock would have a 35x multiple.

It has pretty consistently beaten over the last couple years, though not always, but it would have to beat dramatically over the next 3 years, to justify even the current stock price.
Do you seriously think they will only 3X their EPS by 2025?

You're putting too much weight into "analysists", who, by your own admission have been dead wrong over and over again in their valuation. Every quarter, like clockwork, EPS estimates are revised to the upside. Traditional auto analysists are out of their league with this company, and it shows.

Even if you are correct, does the growth suddenly end in 2025? The goal is 20 million vehicles by 2030. Then you have a laundry list of lottery tickets like energy, autonomy, and AI robotics. If even one of those hit it, will dwarf auto revenue.
 

RU-05

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Do you seriously think they will only 3X their EPS by 2025?

You're putting too much weight into "analysists", who, by your own admission have been dead wrong over and over again in their valuation. Every quarter, like clockwork, EPS estimates are revised to the upside. Traditional auto analysists are out of their league with this company, and it shows.

Even if you are correct, does the growth suddenly end in 2025? The goal is 20 million vehicles by 2030. Then you have a laundry list of lottery tickets like energy, autonomy, and AI robotics. If even one of those hit it, will dwarf auto revenue.
1)From where do you get your EPS estimates?

2)Should be noted there was a time that TSLA missed pretty consistently on EPS. Heck they missed just 6 qtr's ago. Unlike say AAPL or MSFT which never miss.

3)Growth is expected to slow after 2023. So I'm guessing the big jump in EPS is due to the new plants getting running and producing cars, but from there it's a more modest growth. What drives growth beyond those relatively modest levels? More plants? Is that in the plans? I legit don't know.

4)I'm looking at todays stock price and 2025 earnings, and still getting a 35x multiple. You said TTM is a dumb way to look at the stock? Fine, I gave you earnings 3 years out and it still looks expensive on those earnings at this stock price.
 

RUAldo

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SOFI is on a tear lately. Wonder if it’s an acquisition target and word has gotten out.
 

RU-05

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SOFI is on a tear lately. Wonder if it’s an acquisition target and word has gotten out.
I think having got caught in the no earnings death spiral it finally got stupid cheap.

It was down below 1x price to book. Pretty significant rev growth expected in the coming years. Not expected to go earnings positive though till 2025 though. It may run more, but I'm not sure how much more is warranted right now though.
 

RUAldo

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Speaking of stupid cheap, Citi which Berkshire recently bought, with a price to book of .5x.
I bought a bunch in the last two months…I’m in the red a bit but did seem very cheap and new CEO said the right things on last earnings call. Dividend is nice.
 
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Steve91562

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Roach is too emotional…
You'll definitely get a period of stagflation, which is just a slowing economy + high inflation. That's not much of a stretch call, but it probably won't continue long as the central banks remain hawkish, which reduces demand (inflation). You're starting to see it already with the Walmart/Target reportings and what they say about the consumer. They're spending less. Not emotions, just looking at the economic data. Not saying the sky's falling either, just part of the economic cycle where the gov't overstimulated, plus supply chain issues, ect.

Inflation may be a tougher nut to crack than some think, and as such the cost of money will continue to get more expensive and all that entails. We may be entering an era of higher inflation with re-shoring some manf., resurgence of labor power, going Green ect. Who knows though, maybe the Boomers will stop spending in retirement. See Japan.

Honestly, they want to see the financial collapse a little more, because that will curtail demand. Next inflation readings will be telling -- whether going down, speed of the correction. We'll see.
 
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jtung230

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Not sure Fed can control inflation at this point without overdoing it. I like their current approach. But given the consumer balance sheet and the job market, consumer will continue to spend. Need China to reopen and an end to the war. The best Fed can hope for is 5-6% on inflation until those issues are resolved.
 

RUAldo

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Musk is self destructing. Tesla needs a new face to the brand.
It was only a matter of time and some of us predicted it = as smart as he is his hubris will ultimately be his downfall. He led so many to the crypto slaughterhouse and if TSLA shares fall you will see an all-out rebellion.
 
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T2Kplus20

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You'll definitely get a period of stagflation, which is just a slowing economy + high inflation. Not that's not much of a stretch call, but it probably won't continue long as the central banks remain hawkish, which reduces demand (inflation). You're starting to see it already with the Walmart/Target reportings and what they say about the consumer. They're spending less. Not emotions, just looking at the economic data. Not saying the sky's falling either, just part of the economic cycle where the gov't overstimulated, plus supply chain issues, ect.

Inflation may be a tougher nut to crack than some think, and as such the cost of money will continue to get more expensive and all that entails. We may be entering an era of higher inflation with re-shoring some manf., resurgence of labor power, going Green ect. Who knows though, maybe the Boomers will stop spending in retirement. See Japan.

Honestly, they want to see the financial collapse a little more, because that will curtail demand. Next inflation readings will be telling -- whether going down, speed of the correction. We'll see.
Target and Walmart did well on revenues. Energy prices hurt margins (which will be a temporary issue). Most of inflation is not about monetary policy, just COVID supply chains and Putin. Things will get worked out. The markets have baked in rates going up to 2.75/3.00, which is plenty (and I bet will be unnecessary at the end of the day).
 

T2Kplus20

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Not sure Fed can control inflation at this point without overdoing it. I like their current approach. But given the consumer balance sheet and the job market, consumer will continue to spend. Need China to reopen and an end to the war. The best Fed can hope for is 5-6% on inflation until those issues are resolved.
Good post, the Fed can't control most of inflation, so no point in wrecking the economy with a worthless effort. Get rates back to neutral and let it be.
 

BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

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1)From where do you get your EPS estimates?

2)Should be noted there was a time that TSLA missed pretty consistently on EPS. Heck they missed just 6 qtr's ago. Unlike say AAPL or MSFT which never miss.

3)Growth is expected to slow after 2023. So I'm guessing the big jump in EPS is due to the new plants getting running and producing cars, but from there it's a more modest growth. What drives growth beyond those relatively modest levels? More plants? Is that in the plans? I legit don't know.

4)I'm looking at todays stock price and 2025 earnings, and still getting a 35x multiple. You said TTM is a dumb way to look at the stock? Fine, I gave you earnings 3 years out and it still looks expensive on those earnings at this stock price.
1. Exponential growth is difficult to forecast, but the Tesla YouTube and Twitter community has been far more accurate vs WS. And, for good reason...these guys are exclusively hyperfocused on Tesla. Rob Mauer, Troy Teslike, James Stephenson, and the Tesla Economist are some of the best. I'm sure some may laugh that a guy on YouTube or Twitter knows more about Tesla than an almighty analysist at an investment firm. Check their track record, it speaks for itself.

2. Again, Tesla is well past the days of teetering on bankruptcy. Despite this, many still view them through this lens...i.e. Tesla is a "high risk" investment. The miss 6 q's ago was the height of the Covid panic and Fremont unjustly shutdown. Out of their control, much like the Shanghai shutdown this Q will hurt short term. If China is such a huge risk, why are they building a 2nd factory in Shanghai? Haven't you noticed the trend? Short term FUD and clickbait dominates the headlines, these stories are forgotten within a few weeks, Tesla continues to perform, repeat the cycle. Look no further than this thread for the individuals that are oblivious to this trend.

3. Growth slowing? No chance. "Scaling to extreme size" was the quote from the last earnings call. Yes, more factories, more products, more batteries, more vertical integration, more acquisitions, and expanding into new markets (mining, robotics, artificial intelligence, licensing software). Revenue has been growing significantly faster than capex, despite all of the craziness of the last 2 years + building 2 new factories. Tesla is extremely efficient with their capex. This has lead to a good problem....too much cash on hand. They currently have enough free cash (and basically zero debt) to build another 5-6 Giga factories, but can't because they haven't secured the supply. They've already become a cash printing machine. What is that going to look like by mid/late decade? Stock buybacks/dividends are certainly on the table. Honestly, I can't see a way for them to spend all of their free cash going forward, but I'm looking forward to being surprised.

4. I'm highly confident your earnings forecast will be wrong. See #3

Have a look see
Shareholder deck q1 2022
 

T2Kplus20

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1. Exponential growth is difficult to forecast, but the Tesla YouTube and Twitter community has been far more accurate vs WS. And, for good reason...these guys are exclusively hyperfocused on Tesla. Rob Mauer, Troy Teslike, James Stephenson, and the Tesla Economist are some of the best. I'm sure some may laugh that a guy on YouTube or Twitter knows more about Tesla than an almighty analysist at an investment firm. Check their track record, it speaks for itself.

2. Again, Tesla is well past the days of teetering on bankruptcy. Despite this, many still view them through this lens...i.e. Tesla is a "high risk" investment. The miss 6 q's ago was the height of the Covid panic and Fremont unjustly shutdown. Out of their control, much like the Shanghai shutdown this Q will hurt short term. If China is such a huge risk, why are they building a 2nd factory in Shanghai? Haven't you noticed the trend? Short term FUD and clickbait dominates the headlines, these stories are forgotten within a few weeks, Tesla continues to perform, repeat the cycle. Look no further than this thread for the individuals that are oblivious to this trend.

3. Growth slowing? No chance. "Scaling to extreme size" was the quote from the last earnings call. Yes, more factories, more products, more batteries, more vertical integration, more acquisitions, and expanding into new markets (mining, robotics, artificial intelligence, licensing software). Revenue has been growing significantly faster than capex, despite all of the craziness of the last 2 years + building 2 new factories. Tesla is extremely efficient with their capex. This has lead to a good problem....too much cash on hand. They currently have enough free cash (and basically zero debt) to build another 5-6 Giga factories, but can't because they haven't secured the supply. They've already become a cash printing machine. What is that going to look like by mid/late decade? Stock buybacks/dividends are certainly on the table. Honestly, I can't see a way for them to spend all of their free cash going forward, but I'm looking forward to being surprised.

4. I'm highly confident your earnings forecast will be wrong. See #3

Have a look see
Shareholder deck q1 2022
It's amusing to see so many people in this thread claim to be long-term investors who constantly get hysterical with the short-term fluctuations in the market and individual stocks. LOL!
 
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jtung230

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It's amusing to see so many people in this thread claim to be long-term investors who constantly get hysterical with the short-term fluctuations in the market and individual stocks. LOL!
Most of us have two portfolios. The long term stuff is boring. All of my trades I post here is a substitute to the casinos.
 

T2Kplus20

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Most of us have two portfolios. The long term stuff is boring. All of my trades I post here is a substitute to the casinos.
Then why do you whine so much when I talk about long-hold investing? We probably have similar investing philosophies.
 

BellyFullOfWhiteDogCrap

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It's amusing to see so many people in this thread claim to be long-term investors who constantly get hysterical with the short-term fluctuations in the market and individual stocks. LOL!
What-is-Shony-Object-Syndrome.jpg
 
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