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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

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ashokan said:
Going the other way in Uky.
They want a big war

www.mediaite.com

Biden Reverses Course in NY Times Op-Ed, Will Deliver Rockets to Ukraine

President Joe Biden announced he will reverse course and send advanced rocket systems to Ukraine in an op-ed publishedby the New York Times Tuesday evening.
www.mediaite.com www.mediaite.com
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They who?

I think the Ukraine's just want Russia out of their country.

Could the US want a protracted war which continues to deplete Russia? I guess there's an argument there, but I think the inflation which this conflict is causing far outweighs those concerns, at least if we are talking near to mid term political decisions.
 
RU-05 said:
The Bull narrative here is the land grab phase is complete and now it's time for the EPS growth phase.
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With the significant drop in price, they realize they need to concentrate on the earnings. AMZN price increased 200 pts due to the stock split on June 3rd.
 
rutgersdave said:
With the significant drop in price, they realize they need to concentrate on the earnings. AMZN price increased 200 pts due to the stock split on June 3rd.
Click to expand...
I think they were entering that phase anyways.

I also think that while the stock split adds a little fuel to the rally, it's more about AMZN just being down that much(I don't want to say cheap given their current p/e). Remember that split was announced when it was around/over 3k.
 
RU-05 said:
I think they were entering that phase anyways.

I also think that while the stock split adds a little fuel to the rally, it's more about AMZN just being down that much(I don't want to say cheap given their current p/e). Remember that split was announced when it was around/over 3k.
Click to expand...
It was announced a while ago but the 20-1 stocks will be issued in 2 days. I believe it went up 200 pts the last 3 days. I hope it continue after the split but it might take a rest after the split.
 
rutgersdave said:
It was announced a while ago but the 20-1 stocks will be issued in 2 days. I believe it went up 200 pts the last 3 days. I hope it continue after the split but it might take a rest after the split.
Click to expand...
I'm probably going to trim back if it continues to pop post split.

Bought in over 3K, then added around 2200, so if I can trade around this bounce it will take the sting off that original purchase price.
 
Some more decent inflation news.

But a lot of talk, including from Jeremy Siegel, that the inflation that is already in the system(see current gas prices) will take 1-2 years to work it's way through.
 
Delta raised guidance. But airlines seem to be held down because of fuel concerns.

Edit: Still lots of cancellations too. Saw AAL had a bunch last week as well.
 
RUAldo said:
Nah, there’s always another train to catch. You said the same thing when CRM was over $300. I’m OK with missing some potential upside because I think there is still more bad news to come. Not out of the woods yet.
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Months ago I had an order for CRM at 190 when it was in the low 200s (around 220s I think)...didn't like the way it and the market was acting and I pulled it. I reset it in the low 100s. Will it get there or not I don't know but that's where I'm comfortable keeping the order. If it doesn't get there so be it. Months ago when AMZN was in the high 2000s-3000 area I mentioned 2000 as a possibility and it was laughed off and thought of as crazy but we see what happened in the last month.

Easy money has made people think markets only go up like crazy and all the time. Yes markets do go up over the long haul but it doesn't mean you can't have a protracted period where they go down or stagnate for awhile. The price you buy things at matters and the quality of company matters too (as in if you don't make money, you're not getting any of mine lol). If rates go up in any measurable and sustained fashion (which they seem to be telegraphing for now) TINA which helped inflate this market will abate.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
Be careful. Don't miss out again like you did in 2020!
Click to expand...
Tons of easy money and monetary stimulus reversed the market and pushed it up like crazy. That's not coming this time and they're doing the exact opposite of that now and probably will induce a recession even.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Easy money has made people think markets only go up like crazy and all the time. Yes markets do go up over the long haul but it doesn't mean you can't have a protracted period where they go down or stagnate for awhile. The price you buy things at matters and the quality of company matters too (as in if you don't make money, you're not getting any of mine lol). If rates go up in any measurable and sustained fashion (which they seem to be telegraphing for now) TINA which helped inflate this market will abate.
Click to expand...
Not to mention that stocks do not have the "only go up" track record like the overall market does.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Tons of easy money and monetary stimulus reversed the market and pushed it up like crazy. That's not coming this time and they're doing the exact opposite of that now and probably will induce a recession even.
Click to expand...
Yup, this time it's different.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
Tons of easy money and monetary stimulus reversed the market and pushed it up like crazy. That's not coming this time and they're doing the exact opposite of that now and probably will induce a recession even.
Click to expand...
I believe then and now are more linked that you think. The 2020 crash was all based on fear and emotion. We got a quick market recovery due to the fear mostly going away. Additional growth was due to easy money, but that is a different issue.

Right now we have massive fear of inflation, recession, and Russia. As inflation begins to decrease, this fear will do so as well. Same with Russia. This is why I think we will get back to ATHs rather quickly. I'm not saying we are going to grow another 30-50% above this in a blink of an eye, just back to Nov 2021 highs.
 
T2Kplus20 said:
I believe then and now are more linked that you think. The 2020 crash was all based on fear and emotion. We got a quick market recovery due to the fear mostly going away. Additional growth was due to easy money, but that is a different issue.

Right now we have massive fear of inflation, recession, and Russia. As inflation begins to decrease, this fear will do so as well. Same with Russia. This is why I think we will get back to ATHs rather quickly. I'm not saying we are going to grow another 30-50% above this in a blink of an eye, just back to Nov 2021 highs.
Click to expand...
That might be true about indexes but there will be plenty of individual stocks that will never reach their ATH. MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, NFLX, PYPL and ADBE May reach their old high but might take over 5 years. That’s not including all the tech stocks with no earnings.
 
rutgersdave said:
That might be true about indexes but there will be plenty of individual stocks that will never reach their ATH. MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, NFLX, PYPL and ADBE May reach their old high but might take over 5 years. That’s not including all the tech stocks with no earnings.
Click to expand...
For the indexes to get back to ATHs, most of the big boys will be fine.....MSFT, TSLA, NVDA, ADBE, etc. Spec techs will lag until/if they prove it and start making money.
 
RU-05 said:
They who?

I think the Ukraine's just want Russia out of their country.

Could the US want a protracted war which continues to deplete Russia? I guess there's an argument there, but I think the inflation which this conflict is causing far outweighs those concerns, at least if we are talking near to mid term political decisions.
Click to expand...

Austin and Blinken let it out of the bag last month that they want to seriously degrade Russia's military capability. They want to see Russia pounded and be unable to recover quickly https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/

That in itself is a fairly contorted goal all things considered, but in sticking to Ukraine, it seems the US is just using them and setting the stage for more destruction. Its a media/DC creation that Ukraine is doing well vs Russia. They had some success with the drones etc, and US helped them sink Russia's flagship and kill Russian generals, but the Ukraine ground forces are a mess.

They are are disorganized and haphazardly led. The forces furthest up the line get the worst equipment. Many officers are dead. Weapons the US sent to Ukraine in the past ended-up destroyed and/or taken by Russians. Wounded soldiers dont get care and morale is low. Russia's tactics center on artillery pounding (400-600 rounds per day) and not taking territory per se. The longer the war goes on, Ukraine will starts to look like Dresden.

The medium range missiles US says it will give to Ukraine are described as a minimal offering that shouldn't make much of a difference. However I dont know how anyone can trust reports since US has been doing a lot more than it often suggests. In any case, US doesn't want to quit Ukraine soon and that will cause a lot of harm

Meanwhile China has banned citizens from leaving China, and the regime has given orders to sanction-proof its economic vulnerabilities. The lockdowns were never about any virus. More astute CCP observers think something is definitely looming although they like to tease and layoff to lull responses. US naval capacities are described as dysfunctional already anyway.

Best source by far for reality of Ukraine military situation is this fellow here

 
Last edited:
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ashokan said:
Austin and Blinken let it out of the bag last month that they want to seriously degrade Russia's military capability. They want to see Russia pounded and be unable to recover quickly https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/

That in itself is a fairly contorted goal all things considered, but in sticking to Ukraine, it seems the US is just using them and setting the stage for more destruction. Its a media/DC creation that Ukraine is doing well vs Russia. They had some success with the Drones, and US helped them sink Russia's flagship and kill Russian generals but the Ukraine ground forces are a mess.

They are are disorganized and haphazardly led. The forces furthest up the line get the worst equipment. Many officers are dead. Weapons the US sent to Ukraine in the past ended-up destroyed and/or taken by Russians. Wounded soldiers dont get care and morale is low. Russia's tactics center on artillery pounding (400-600 rounds per day) and not taking territory per se. The longer the war goes on, Ukraine will starts to look like Dresden.

The medium range missiles US says it will give to Ukraine are described as a minimal offering that shouldn't make much of a difference. However I dont know how anyone can trust reports since US has been doing a lot more than it often suggests. In any case, US doesn't want to quit Ukraine soon and that will cause a lot of harm

Meanwhile China has banned citizens from leaving China, and the regime has given orders to sanction-proof its economic vulnerabilities. The lockdowns were never about any virus. More astute CCP observers think something is definitely looming although they like to tease and layoff to lull responses. US naval capacities are described as dysfunctional already anyway.

Best source by far for reality of Ukraine military situation is this fellow here

View embedded media
Click to expand...
I sincerely hope you are not a Rutgers graduate.
 
rurahrah000 said:
I sincerely hope you are not a Rutgers graduate.
Click to expand...

I went to University of Chicago and studied offensive realism under professor John Mearsheimer (also a USMA grad)
He called the Ukraine war years ago
US and European meddling is what caused Ukraine situation (and Zel wanting nukes in 2021)
Mearsh knows exactly what's going on now as explained in April vid below
The only difference is that Russia successfully pivoted in strategy weeks ago



 
ashokan said:
I went to University of Chicago and studied offensive realism under professor John Mearsheimer (also a USMA grad)
He called the Ukraine war years ago
US and European meddling is what caused Ukraine situation (and Zel wanting nukes in 2021)
Mearsh knows exactly what's going on now as explained in April vid below
The only difference is that Russia successfully pivoted in strategy weeks ago



View embedded media
Click to expand...
Not a RU grad, whew, that’s a relief. There is a difference between John Mearsheimer and yourself. John is offering his interpretation of the facts which is completely acceptable and welcome. You on the other hand are just offering “alternative facts” without any evidence of “truth”. But I digress. This is not the forum for this discussion and will no longer respond back.
 
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ashokan said:
Austin and Blinken let it out of the bag last month that they want to seriously degrade Russia's military capability. They want to see Russia pounded and be unable to recover quickly https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/25/russia-weakened-lloyd-austin-ukraine-visit/

That in itself is a fairly contorted goal all things considered, but in sticking to Ukraine, it seems the US is just using them and setting the stage for more destruction. Its a media/DC creation that Ukraine is doing well vs Russia. They had some success with the drones etc, and US helped them sink Russia's flagship and kill Russian generals, but the Ukraine ground forces are a mess.

They are are disorganized and haphazardly led. The forces furthest up the line get the worst equipment. Many officers are dead. Weapons the US sent to Ukraine in the past ended-up destroyed and/or taken by Russians. Wounded soldiers dont get care and morale is low. Russia's tactics center on artillery pounding (400-600 rounds per day) and not taking territory per se. The longer the war goes on, Ukraine will starts to look like Dresden.

The medium range missiles US says it will give to Ukraine are described as a minimal offering that shouldn't make much of a difference. However I dont know how anyone can trust reports since US has been doing a lot more than it often suggests. In any case, US doesn't want to quit Ukraine soon and that will cause a lot of harm

Meanwhile China has banned citizens from leaving China, and the regime has given orders to sanction-proof its economic vulnerabilities. The lockdowns were never about any virus. More astute CCP observers think something is definitely looming although they like to tease and layoff to lull responses. US naval capacities are described as dysfunctional already anyway.

Best source by far for reality of Ukraine military situation is this fellow here

View embedded media
Click to expand...
This war is not on the US or NATO or Ukraine. It's on Russia, they invaded Ukraine. Let's not make it any more complicated then it is. It could end tomorrow if Russia just get's out.

The US supporting the Ukrainians via weaponry? I'm all for it as it's the right thing to do. The fact that it weakens Russia in the process is just a wonderful bonus that comes along with Ukraine's success thus far, and it's a lot more then just "some success".
 
ashokan said:
I went to University of Chicago and studied offensive realism under professor John Mearsheimer (also a USMA grad)
He called the Ukraine war years ago
US and European meddling is what caused Ukraine situation (and Zel wanting nukes in 2021)
Mearsh knows exactly what's going on now as explained in April vid below
The only difference is that Russia successfully pivoted in strategy weeks ago



View embedded media
Click to expand...
This is like blaming the bullies instead of putting the blame on the shooter. Are you Russian? Why do you try to blame the USA and believe Russia is innocent?

Please stay on the CE board.
 
Last edited:
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rutgersdave said:
This is like blaming the bullies instead of putting the blame on the shooter. Are you Russian? Why do you try to blame the USA and believe Russia is innocent?

Please stay on the CE board.
Click to expand...
Isn't Russia both the bully and the shooter in this scenario?

I guess you're saying the West is bullying Russia? But I'm not sure I even agree on that. I think in that relationship Russia is the frustrated bully, so they tried to take out that frustration on Ukriane, tried to flex some muscle, only to prove that even in that matchup they are much weaker then expected.
 
RU-05 said:
Isn't Russia both the bully and the shooter in this scenario?

I guess you're saying the West is bullying Russia? But I'm not sure I even agree on that. I think in that relationship Russia is the frustrated bully, so they tried to take out that frustration on Ukriane, tried to flex some muscle, only to prove that even in that matchup they are much weaker then expected.
Click to expand...
Putin and Ashokan are trying to blame US and NATO eastward expansion for the start of Ukraine War, not Russia fault.
 
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rutgersdave said:
Putin and Ashokan are trying to blame US and NATO eastward expansion for the start of Ukraine War, not Russia fault.
Click to expand...
Ya, I get that. Does that make us the bully though? In their eye's maybe, but even then, I'm not sure I'm buying it, at least not in terms of Putin's intents. Seems more like a convenient excuse.
 
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Cashin sounding pretty bearish. QT providing the downward pressure. Thinks chop into early next week and then downward from there.
 
RU-05 said:
pretty modest lowering, but below the streets consensus.

Stock was down 4ish% last I saw.
Click to expand...
It is modest but not that long ago you’d be thinking of only raises in guidance for companies like MSFT let alone any sort of lowering.
 
RU-05 said:
Cashin sounding pretty bearish. QT providing the downward pressure. Thinks chop into early next week and then downward from there.
Click to expand...
You're taking an unprecedented amount of easy money and monetary stimulus out of the system. TINA abates, PE contraction is happening and there's going to be downward pressure,...the question is just how much. Have we seen enough? Is there more to come? What's there to juice the market now? I tend to think more downside but a lot more? I'm not as sure about that. Taking that much stimulus out of the system has how big of an effect? We'll have to see.

I still like names like MSFT I mentioned above (despite the downward guidance) and the rest of the high quality stocks, especially ones with reasonable PEs and have been hit hard. Dividend stocks all the better. If things goes down more I'll buy more at certain points.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
You're taking an unprecedented amount of easy money and monetary stimulus out of the system. TINA abates, PE contraction is happening and there's going to be downward pressure,...the question is just how much. Have we seen enough? Is there more to come? What's there to juice the market now? I tend to think more downside but a lot more? I'm not as sure about that. Taking that much stimulus out of the system has how big of an effect? We'll have to see.

I still like names like MSFT I mentioned above (despite the downward guidance) and the rest of the high quality stocks, especially ones with reasonable PEs and have been hit hard. Dividend stocks all the better. If things goes down more I'll buy more at certain points.
Click to expand...
Cashin echoed the $3400 level which we've been hearing a lot.
 
rutgersguy1 said:
It is modest but not that long ago you’d be thinking of only raises in guidance for companies like MSFT let alone any sort of lowering.
Click to expand...
But like CRM the lowering of guidance has a lot to do with the exchange rate. Not so much a slowing of the business.
 
RU-05 said:
Cashin echoed the $3400 level which we've been hearing a lot.
Click to expand...
That would be almost 20% more from here which is quite a bit. I'd seen 3700 (don't know if there have been any revisions) months ago before the May swoon.

BTW haven't seen lately anything as I've been away until the last week or so...what happened to big bull Tom Lee. Any change in his predictions now?
 
RU-05 said:
Cashin sounding pretty bearish. QT providing the downward pressure. Thinks chop into early next week and then downward from there.
Click to expand...
QT is a silly argument right now. At the current fed rate of selling (or letting expire), it will take at least 18 months for QT to have any impact on banks and the market. There is so much unused cash/liquidity floating around now.
 
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I see tech, industrials and retail looks mostly green today...staples/utilities red. I'd love to see the staples and utilities finally take a nice big hit. I've been hoping for a readjusting with what's an "acceptable yield" for divy stocks if rates go up enough.
 
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rutgersguy1 said:
That would be almost 20% more from here which is quite a bit. I'd seen 3700 (don't know if there have been any revisions) months ago before the May swoon.

BTW haven't seen lately anything as I've been away until the last week or so...what happened to big bull Tom Lee. Any change in his predictions now?
Click to expand...
Haven't seen Lee in a bit, so not sure.

JPM's Marko Kulonvic was on halftime yesterday, and he remains bullish.


www.investing.com

JPMorgan's Kolanovic 'Remains Positive on Risky Assets' By Investing.com

JPMorgan's Kolanovic 'Remains Positive on Risky Assets'
www.investing.com
 
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