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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

I do suspect that with this next round of stimulus checks the high multiple/pre earnings/high revenue growth stocks, will go on another run.

I noted I'm pretty much out of the speculative plays, but I'm going to keep an eye out and likely dabble again in the next couple months.

Still holding crytpo, but much more streamlined. GBTC, ETHE, RIOT and BFCH are the extent of it and I think I will keep it that way, just trade around that group.
 
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I do suspect that with this next round of stimulus checks the high multiple/pre earnings/high revenue growth stocks, will go on another run.

I noted I'm pretty much out of the speculative plays, but I'm going to keep an eye out and likely dabble again in the next couple months.

Still holding crytpo, but much more streamlined. GBTC, ETHE, RIOT and BFCH are the extent of it and I think I will keep it that way, just trade around that group.
If those cryptos go up, everything will go up. No need to add more names just to add. Keep it simple! I'm set with my crypto portfolio as well.

Happy to look up any FMV for you.
 
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I'll hang on to XLE for a while longer, but with so many undervalued tech and innovative companies, it's hard to go too much into traditional value. Our value play is mostly focused on small cap value, which historically outperforms large cap value.

As for T directly, do you really see HBO Max competing with the big boys (Netflix, Disney+, and Prime)? Not all streaming services will succeed.
It's like the EV discussion, where a company like RIDE doesn't need to have earnings or rev's similar to TSLA, they just need to carve out their niche and produce earnings.

So will HBO ever be as big as the big 3? probably not, but the HBO name does carry weight, and they do produce worthwhile content. If the next era of TV is via streaming, and HBO produces another show as popular as Soprano's or Game of Thrones, then you will see their #'s jump in a big way.
 
If those cryptos go up, everything will go up. No need to add more names just to add. Keep it simple! I'm set with my crypto portfolio as well.

Happy to look up any FMV for you.
cool appreciate it. I did buy back into RIOT on the way down, and I think I will add to ETHE monday which looks to be down too much relative to the price of ETH itself.

What is the FMV for IIPR? They were down after missing on earnings, and then went down further along with the market, but still they make money, and their growth, as well as their growth prospects is fantastic.
 
It's like the EV discussion, where a company like RIDE doesn't need to have earnings or rev's similar to TSLA, they just need to carve out their niche and produce earnings.

So will HBO ever be as big as the big 3? probably not, but the HBO name does carry weight, and they do produce worthwhile content. If the leg of TV is via streaming, and HBO produces another show as popular as Soprano's or Game of Thrones, then you will see their #'s jump in a big way.
Some info on T. Current FMV is $36.

A New Chapter in an Ugly Story as AT&T Reaches a Deal for DirecTV
Analyst Note Updated Feb 25, 2021

AT&T has reached an agreement to restructure its U.S. television business, selling a stake in the operation to a private equity fund run by TPG. The deal isn’t large relative to the size of AT&T core wireless and media businesses. The firm disclosed that U.S. television services generated about $4 billion of EBITDA in 2020, equal to about 7% of the total for the year. It likely generated around 12% of free cash flow, a percentage we project to rapidly decline. But we suspect the firm is anxious to beginning putting the DirecTV mistake—and the investor attention it commands—in the rearview mirror. We are maintaining our $36 fair value estimate and we believe AT&T shares are attractive.

In our view, this deal is a win for AT&T given the paucity of options likely available. The deal structure provides the potential to extract more than $16 billion in cash via upfront payments and preferred interest payments from New DirecTV. The actual amount will be lower as AT&T agreed to cover losses on NFL Sunday Ticket through 2022, but it could receive cash equal to around 3.5-4.0 times 2020 EBITDA, albeit over a period of years. We doubt that outside investors were willing to pay a substantially higher multiple to acquire the business outright given recent customer losses.

TPG essentially will get paid around $180 million and receive a 30% interest in New DirecTV for pulling $1.8 billion in cash flow forward for AT&T, while helping to provide legitimacy to allow New DirecTV to raise debt capital and resume as a standalone entity. TPG will only capture meaningful upside for its efforts if it can help New DirecTV stabilize its business and pursue other strategic alternatives, perhaps even facilitating the long-rumored merger with Dish Network’s television operations. In any event, TPG has a strong incentive to make occur quickly to get over the hump of payouts due to AT&T and realize value for its investors.

Fair Value and Profit Drivers | Updated Dec 23, 2020
We are cutting our fair value estimate modestly to $36 from $37 after increasing our expectations for spending on wireless spectrum. We now assume AT&T spends more than $20 billion in 2021 and 2022 on spectrum licenses, primarily at the FCC’s C-Band auction. We expect several of the same trends that have hit AT&T’s businesses recently will remain in place, yielding very modest wireless revenue growth despite increased network capacity. Our fair value estimate equates to roughly 7.5 times our 2021 EBITDA forecast.

In wireless, we expect AT&T will modestly gain market share through 2024. We believe postpaid revenue per phone customer, which bottomed in 2018 with the transition to unsubsidized rate plans wrapping up, will grow modestly over the next several years amid a relatively stable competitive environment. We estimate AT&T generates more than $1 billion in revenue annually from connected devices, such as cars. We model this revenue doubling over the next five years, but this estimate is highly uncertain. We expect total wireless revenue will increase 4% annually on average through 2024, with wireless margins holding roughly steady over this period, as pricing rationalization and high-margin connected device revenue offset rising network operating costs. Lumpiness in smartphone sales, which generate no profit, will cause volatility in reported margins.

At WarnerMedia, we expect 2% average annual growth during the 2020-24 period, with revenue down 13% in 2020 but rebounding gradually thereafter. We model growth, absent the rebound from the pandemic, accelerating in later years as HBO Max gains acceptance and offsets weakness in the traditional television business. We don’t have high expectations for the advertising business over the long term, despite AT&T’s efforts to improve ad monetization, as consumer behavior shifts away from ad-supported formats. We also expect that increased investments in content required to fend off newer entrants will pressure margins over time.

With the entertainment and enterprise businesses shrinking, we expect consolidated revenue growth of less than 2% annually over the next five years. We also expect the consumer business will struggle to maintain profitability in future years as the television business continues to shrink. In total, we expect AT&T will produce modest EBITDA margin expansion, with capital spending increasing gradually over the next five years.
 
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cool appreciate it. I did buy back into RIOT on the way down, and I think I will add to ETHE monday which looks to be down too much relative to the price of ETH itself.

What is the FMV for IIPR? They were down after missing on earnings, and then went down further along with the market, but still they make money, and their growth, as well as their growth prospects is fantastic.
Play the RIOT yo-yo! It is down to $40, but will pop back to $80 once BTC gets close to $60k again. Then sell RIOT and wait for the next pull back. Rinse and repeat! :)

IIPR:

Morningstar's Analysis
Valuation Mar 05, 2021
IIPR is at a 14% Premium.
Fair Value: 152.15
Last Close: 173.74
Uncertainty: High
Economic Moat: Narrow
 
Now many people bought in April, so the luck of timing has passed. We bought XLE (energy ETF with a ton of Exxon and Chervon) in late 2020, so we caught some of the up.

I'd say that investment that returns 10% qualified dividends and the sale of which would subject 50% of the proceeds to capital gains taxes is a screaming hold. I realize that may heresy on this thread.
 
Play the RIOT yo-yo! It is down to $40, but will pop back to $80 once BTC gets close to $60k again. Then sell RIOT and wait for the next pull back. Rinse and repeat! :)

IIPR:

Morningstar's Analysis
Valuation Mar 05, 2021
IIPR is at a 14% Premium.
Fair Value: 152.15
Last Close: 173.74
Uncertainty: High
Economic Moat: Narrow

Got stopped out of IIPR last week at 180.
 
Play the RIOT yo-yo! It is down to $40, but will pop back to $80 once BTC gets close to $60k again. Then sell RIOT and wait for the next pull back. Rinse and repeat! :)

IIPR:

Morningstar's Analysis
Valuation Mar 05, 2021
IIPR is at a 14% Premium.
Fair Value: 152.15
Last Close: 173.74
Uncertainty: High
Economic Moat: Narrow
Interesting, given IIPR currently makes money, and is expected to see significant earnings growth I'd expect they'd have a better FMV.

Wonder if that is a REIT thing?

How bout a pure cannabis play like CRLBF?
 
Interesting, given IIPR currently makes money, and is expected to see significant earnings growth I'd expect they'd have a better FMV.

Wonder if that is a REIT thing?

How bout a pure cannabis play like CRLBF?
CRLBF = $11.21 FMV
So it is slightly overvalued. Once again, the FMV process at Morningstar is conservative and traditional. I think it is a value benchmark, but probably understates emerging or innovative potential.
 
Was running through the E-Trade stock screener and came up with a potential speculative play that has thus far been running in the wrong direction.

BXRX, came public late 2019 at around $6, went up to $8, dipped to $2 in March, bounced back to $4, fell back to around $1, bounced back to $2 and is now just a little over $1.

In addition to the Covid dip, it has issued new shares multiple times which has led to corresponding price drops. Now the question is why are they needing to issue new shares so often this early in the process, and my guess is Covid. Which hopefully we are moving on from in the months ahead.

Currently at $85 mil market cap. Rev's of just 500K in 2020(again probably Covid related). But current estimates are for $11 mil in 2021, $33 mil in 2022, and $106 mil by 2024. Also expected to be profitable by 2024.

So if they can stop the new stock issuance bleeding, and come fairly close to those expectations, this one has a chance to provide significant returns.
 
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CRLBF = $11.21 FMV
So it is slightly overvalued. Once again, the FMV process at Morningstar is conservative and traditional. I think it is a value benchmark, but probably understates emerging or innovative potential.
One thing I heard with the cannabis plays was estimates for future growth were not including those states, like NJ which recently legalized, never mind those states which have not yet legalized but likely will in upcoming years. So the current estimates for future growth, which are already great, might prove to be significantly lower then what they actually prove to be.

I actually sold both IIPR and CRLBF during the selloff, . In regards to IIPR I had a recent purchase over $200 so overall I was pretty even there, but CRLBF I did very well with. If it cools off a bit more I will surely jump back in.
 
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I'd say that investment that returns 10% qualified dividends and the sale of which would subject 50% of the proceeds to capital gains taxes is a screaming hold. I realize that may heresy on this thread.
Aight man, we get it.

But I'd argue against the necessity of holding because of the tax concern. Let say for instance you bought QS in early Dec at $42, should you have sold a couple weeks later at $100, taken those profits and paid the taxes on those profits? Or held throughout only to see it fall back to around $42?

I get that is an extreme example, I get there is no dividend consideration, but I don't think you necessarily hold just because you are concerned about taxes or because of the dividend.
 
Be careful with the Morningstar fair market values. I would take them with a grain of salt. For instance, they currently have GameStop at $145/share. A company that was trading as low as $3 before the Reddit madness, and has declining revenues. There is no possible justification for such a value.
 
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Be careful with the Morningstar fair market values. I would take them with a grain of salt. For instance, they currently have GameStop at $145/share. A company that was trading as low as $3 before the Reddit madness, and has declining revenues. There is no possible justification for such a value.
+1
There is a big difference between actual MS ratings vs. Q ratings. Obviously, they can't do FMV models for all stocks, so for many of the smaller ones, they just use statistical techniques and not a full analysis. Most of the stocks talked about on the past few pages of this thread are full MS FMV ratings.

GME is a Q rating.
 
Aight man, we get it.

But I'd argue against the necessity of holding because of the tax concern. Let say for instance you bought QS in early Dec at $42, should you have sold a couple weeks later at $100, taken those profits and paid the taxes on those profits? Or held throughout only to see it fall back to around $42?

I get that is an extreme example, I get there is no dividend consideration, but I don't think you necessarily hold just because you are concerned about taxes or because of the dividend.

If I could put my entire portfolio into an investment that returned 10% annually at a tax favored rate I would do it.
 
+1
There is a big difference between actual MS ratings vs. Q ratings. Obviously, they can't do FMV models for all stocks, so for many of the smaller ones, they just use statistical techniques and not a full analysis. Most of the stocks talked about on the past few pages of this thread are full MS FMV ratings.

GME is a Q rating.
Agree, that algorithm generates some very funky results, and you’d think MS would filter some of those crazy outliers.
 
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If I could put my entire portfolio into an investment that returned 10% annually at a tax favored rate I would do it.
But only your initial investment will be at that rate, any growth, whether that be via higher stock price(0% yield in this accounting method) or reinvested dividend will be lower.

The actual current yield of total holdings is 5.5%.
 
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my portfolio
T at 7.02%
KMI at 6.62%
ENB at 7.45%
XOM at 5.71%
PFE at 4.54%
VZ at 4.48%

VZ is my biggest holding of this group. It has not performed well over last three months, but might be stable at this price. So if it goes nowhere, the return is solid compared to market rates. KMI, ENB and XOM have had nice runs over the last 6 months, so I am thinking of where the exit point is.
A) what's the collective yield of your portfolio?

B)How aggressive of a trader are you? Looking at KMI, yes they are 50% off their March lows, but they still have 50% more to go to get to their precovid levels? Seems like there is still a fare amount of head room there.

C)Do we know why companies like KMI and ENB fell so hard from 2015 to 2016?
 
Agree, that algorithm generates some very funky results, and you’d think MS would filter some of those crazy outliers.
+1
There should be something to filter out the crazy GME-type results. Hopefully they are working on it. Their full FMV analyses are great, so it would be nice to prevent anything that muddies the water.
 
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C)Do we know why companies like KMI and ENB fell so hard from 2015 to 2016?
Energy across the board took a dump during this time. Likely politics, green energy, lower gas/oil prices, etc. Energy has been down more than up over the past 8-9 years.
 
+1
There should be something to filter out the crazy GME-type results. Hopefully they are working on it. Their full FMV analyses are great, so it would be nice to prevent anything that muddies the water.

do they offer target prices along with those FMV's?
 
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Also, India decided against their proposed ban of cryptos. Good to see everyone starting to get in line.
😁
T2K, I'm just starting my investing. Please offer up a few stocks I could research that could be good buys now among growth stocks. Thanks.
 
Also, India decided against their proposed ban of cryptos. Good to see everyone starting to get in line.
😁
I'm surprised MassMutual wasn't on the list since they stated they would be purchasing 100 million worth of bitcoin.
 
T2K, I'm just starting my investing. Please offer up a few stocks I could research that could be good buys now among growth stocks. Thanks.
Big question (other posters, please add to my reply). Here are some stock and ETF ideas. Please note, ETFs are important to build a nice foundation for wealth creation. Stocks are more fun, but ETFs give you instant diversity:

I would start with the biggies:

Amazon (AMZN)
Facebook (FB)
Google (GOOG/GOOGL)
Microsoft (MSFT)

All 4 of these are undervalued, great time to jump in. I would cover MSFT and Apple (AAPL) via Vanguards IT EFT (VGT). Microsort and Apple consist of 30-35% of this ETF.

As for other growth/innovative companies at a good discount or back at fair market value:

TWLO
TDOC
PLTR
VEEV (Veeva)
CRM (Salesforce)
Chargepoint (could be a big winner with EVs)
BIDU (a little higher than FMV, but still worth checking out)
Tencent

I'm very bullish on semiconductors, but use 2 ETFs to cover the market (SOXX and XSD).

Definitely check out Tesla and ARKK (innovation ETF). Both pulled back big-time and are worth looking at. I think both will experience volatility but are likely big winners in the future.

If you want safer dividend stocks, look at the posts earlier today. If you are interested in cryptos, don't go overboard, but GBTC and ETHE are the way to go (Grayscale Trust for Bitcoin and Ethereum).
 
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Big question (other posters, please add to my reply). Here are some stock and ETF ideas. Please note, ETFs are important to build a nice foundation for wealth creation. Stocks are more fun, but ETFs give you instant diversity:

I would start with the biggies:

Amazon (AMZN)
Facebook (FB)
Google (GOOG/GOOGL)
Microsoft (MSFT)

All 4 of these are undervalued, great time to jump in. I would cover MSFT and Apple (AAPL) via Vanguards IT EFT (VGT). Microsort and Apple consist of 30-35% of this ETF.

As for other growth/innovative companies at a good discount or back at fair market value:

TWLO
TDOC
PLTR
VEEV (Veeva)
CRM (Salesforce)
Chargepoint (could be a big winner with EVs)
BIDU (a little higher than FMV, but still worth checking out)
Tencent

I'm very bullish on semiconductors, but use 2 ETFs to cover the market (SOXX and XSD).

Definitely check out Tesla and ARKK (innovation ETF). Both pulled back big-time and are worth looking at. I think both will experience volatility but are likely big winners in the future.

If you want safer dividend stocks, look at the posts earlier today. If you are interested in cryptos, don't go overboard, but GBTC and ETHE are the way to go (Grayscale Trust for Bitcoin and Ethereum).
May be worth mentioning what happened the past few weeks: tech companies where investors are high on their future prospects will be hit relatively harder by increases in interest rates than those valued for the nearer future. But it may be worth it to tilt toward these anticipated future winners anyway.
 
A) what's the collective yield of your portfolio?

B)How aggressive of a trader are you? Looking at KMI, yes they are 50% off their March lows, but they still have 50% more to go to get to their precovid levels? Seems like there is still a fare amount of head room there.

C)Do we know why companies like KMI and ENB fell so hard from 2015 to 2016?

About 30 of my 42 stocks pay dividends. I have not calculated my collective yield, but it is probably around 3%. I am only an aggressive trader with one stock, SWN. It is very volatile on a day to day, week to week and month to month basis. Look at the six month chart. Higher highs and high lows, and great opportunities to buy and sell. I don’t trade about 30% of my portfolio that pay decent dividends and are not volatile. I occasionally trade my other stocks when it makes sense. If it’s had a good run and the valuation is stretched, I sell half. In most cases, there are opportunities to buy the shares back. Not sure what happened to ENB or KMI a few years back, I didn’t own them. Currently, I am a bull on housing, so I have been buying HD on recent weakness. I’ve had some good trades with AZEK, and it’s at a level where I might get back in. Their product will be in great demand with the high cost of lumber and the growing number of families spending money on outdoor living.
 
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Big question (other posters, please add to my reply). Here are some stock and ETF ideas. Please note, ETFs are important to build a nice foundation for wealth creation. Stocks are more fun, but ETFs give you instant diversity:

I would start with the biggies:

Amazon (AMZN)
Facebook (FB)
Google (GOOG/GOOGL)
Microsoft (MSFT)

All 4 of these are undervalued, great time to jump in. I would cover MSFT and Apple (AAPL) via Vanguards IT EFT (VGT). Microsort and Apple consist of 30-35% of this ETF.

As for other growth/innovative companies at a good discount or back at fair market value:

TWLO
TDOC
PLTR
VEEV (Veeva)
CRM (Salesforce)
Chargepoint (could be a big winner with EVs)
BIDU (a little higher than FMV, but still worth checking out)
Tencent

I'm very bullish on semiconductors, but use 2 ETFs to cover the market (SOXX and XSD).

Definitely check out Tesla and ARKK (innovation ETF). Both pulled back big-time and are worth looking at. I think both will experience volatility but are likely big winners in the future.

If you want safer dividend stocks, look at the posts earlier today. If you are interested in cryptos, don't go overboard, but GBTC and ETHE are the way to go (Grayscale Trust for Bitcoin and Ethereum).
So kind of you to help.
 
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Just keep in mind that majority of what’s discussed here is not about investing or wealth building. If you are just starting to build a ness egg for long term wealth building, buy a good growth fund. One that has a diversified portfolio and low fees.
TRUTH!

Most of the talk on this thread is about stocks and cryptos. These options represent very small portions of most of our portfolios. However, it's just more fun to talk about them than funds (which after some research, are set it and forget it)!
 
If you bought XOM last April you got paid a 10% dividend while the stock appreciated 90%. While there is no way it will appreciate 90% over the next 12 months you are still making a 10% return on your original investment.

A very important point.
 
C)Do we know why companies like KMI and ENB fell so hard from 2015 to 2016?
[/QUOTE]

KMI had to cut their dividend when oil prices collapsed (some of their revenues are tied to oil prices although they are primarily a midstream natural gas player) to preserve cash. Investors in KMI had bought it for its steady dividends so the dividend cut really caused a large fall in the share price. Got hit hard again in 2020 when Covid arrived due to suppressed demand for energy. While LT growth prospects are much reduced, they will reduce debt, and continue to pay a healthy dividend. I own it. They have been selling some assets (especially in Canada after regulators blocked a pipeline expansion) but could look to buy US assets at depessed prices.
 
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Amusing column this morning by WSJ columnist Andy Kessler, who ran a small cap tech hedge fund in the 90's. Titled "When the Boom Turns to Bust" he talks about no market goes up forever. He writes:

"How do these bull bashes end? When the last skeptical buyer finally sees the light and buys into the dream that every car will be electric, that crypto replaces gold and banks, that we overindulge of vertically farmed 'plant based steaks' while streaming 'Bridgerton' season 5 before we hop on an air taxi for out flight to Mars. Those last skeptics (maybe already) convince themselves there's no longer any downside. And then, boom, it's over.

Bull markets need fuel. When the marginal buyer is done, there are no more greater fools to buy in, no matter how well companies actually perform. The dream is priced in, and firms can only meet, not beat, expectations."

The one thing I think he has missed is that there are going to be a whole lot of "marginal buyers" who are going to have another $1400 to buy Gamestop in a week or two.
 
Just keep in mind that majority of what’s discussed here is not about investing or wealth building. If you are just starting to build a ness egg for long term wealth building, buy a good growth fund. One that has a diversified portfolio and low fees.

I could not agree more with your first sentence. For those just starting to direct funds toward equities who have no background, knowledge or training in evaluating and valuing businesses, regular contributions to low cost index funds will generate very satisfactory long term returns. Purchasing individual securities if you can not evaluate and value businesses would fall under speculative behavior. As a starting point, one should be able to read a 10K filing and understand the contents, including the footnotes to the audit. I would be surprised if 10% of the posters in this thread would meet that minimal standard.
 
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