OT: Strong Cat 4 Laura to Hit Near the TX/LA Border by 1-2 am Thursday - Catastrophic Impacts Expected

[RU848789]

This really busy season is about to get a lot busier if current NHC forecasts hold. Both these systems have been designated as tropical depressions and are both very likely to be named tropical storms shortly, i.e., by tonight. Bare bones discussions below - more to come as the storms develop.

TD-13 is currently in the Atlantic, east of the Caribbean, but is likely to move WNW just north of the Lesser/Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba) and towards the southern Bahamas and South Florida, with the forecast track center going right over the southern tip of FL and the FL Keys sometime around Monday evening; it's also predicted to strengthen into a minimal hurricane by the time it reaches S. FL. Track errors are pretty large 4-5 days out, so it might still miss FL to the south, but it also might move further north up towards the central FL coast and intensity forecasts are always a bit of guesswork, so anyone in the southern half of FL should be paying close attention to this right now. Beyond 5 days, the storm looks like it will head into the Gulf of Mexico and who knows where it will go after that, although longer range models are indicating the northern Gulf Coast in 6-7 days.

Potential Marco is TD-14 in the Caribbean, near Nicarauga, and is forecast to head NW over the Yucatan Peninsula in 2 days, after which it's still forecast to be a TS and predicted to head towards the central Texas coast, i.e., near Houston by Tuesday morning, still as a strong TS, but the GOM is quite warm, so a hurricane can't be ruled out. Same caveats on track and intensity forecasts as for potential Laura, i.e., hard to know what interaction with the Yucatan will do to the storm and interest from central LA to south TX need to be watching this one closely.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA

www.nhc.noaa.gov

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[BigEastPhil]

Possible historic scenario whereby 2 hurricanes in Gulf of Mexico at same time early next week.

Both hurricanes projected to be Category 1 with one hitting panhandle and other hitting East Texas.

 

[RU848789]

This really busy season is about to get a lot busier if current NHC forecasts hold. Both these systems have been designated as tropical depressions and are both very likely to be named tropical storms shortly, i.e., by tonight. Bare bones discussions below - more to come as the storms develop.

TD-13 is currently in the Atlantic, east of the Caribbean, but is likely to move WNW just north of the Lesser/Greater Antilles (Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Cuba) and towards the southern Bahamas and South Florida, with the forecast track center going right over the southern tip of FL and the FL Keys sometime around Monday evening; it's also predicted to strengthen into a minimal hurricane by the time it reaches S. FL. Track errors are pretty large 4-5 days out, so it might still miss FL to the south, but it also might move further north up towards the central FL coast and intensity forecasts are always a bit of guesswork, so anyone in the southern half of FL should be paying close attention to this right now. Beyond 5 days, the storm looks like it will head into the Gulf of Mexico and who knows where it will go after that, although longer range models are indicating the northern Gulf Coast in 6-7 days.

Potential Marco is TD-14 in the Caribbean, near Nicarauga, and is forecast to head NW over the Yucatan Peninsula in 2 days, after which it's still forecast to be a TS and predicted to head towards the central Texas coast, i.e., near Houston by Tuesday morning, still as a strong TS, but the GOM is quite warm, so a hurricane can't be ruled out. Same caveats on track and intensity forecasts as for potential Laura, i.e., hard to know what interaction with the Yucatan will do to the storm and interest from central LA to south TX need to be watching this one closely.

TROPICAL STORM JULIA

www.nhc.noaa.gov

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KARL

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Unfortunately, things are looking more favorable for both systems to eventually make landfalls on the Gulf coast Tuesday evening, both as minimal hurricanes (as currently forecast) - Marco in Houston and Laura on the FL Panhandle, after a possible landfall in extreme southern FL or the Keys on Monday afternoon. This is nowhere near written in stone, as we still don't even have actual named tropical storms yet, but they're predicted to be soon, and we still don't know what crossing the Yucatan will do to Marco, plus there are many other variables. Interests in South Florida and all along the Gulf Coast need to be aware of this one, as both storms will be crossing very warm waters with light wind shear, so strengthening well beyond the current forecast of weak Cat 1 strength for one or both is possible.

The last time two tropical systems made US mainland landfalls within a day of each other was in 1933, with a Cat 3 making landfall in Brownsville and a TS making landfall in Cedar Key, FL (after hitting the FL east coast as a Cat 3).

Laura and Marco Likely to Deliver Back-to-Back Landfalls on U.S. Gulf Coast; Here's How Rare That Is | The Weather Channel

There are two tropical forecast cones pointed at the U.S. mainland. It's happened before in the Gulf of Mexico. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

weather.com

 

[greenknight]

What are the chances of 2 landfalling hurricanes within a couple hundred miles of each other at virtually the same time

 

[DJ Spanky]

Not to quibble, but won't the first one to become a tropical storm be named Laura?

 

[RU848789]

Not to quibble, but won't the first one to become a tropical storm be named Laura?

No, because TD-13 formed before TD-14, so even if TD-14 was named before TD-13, TD-13 would get the "L" name and TD-14 would get the "M" name. Laura has formed, but Marco has not, yet - update coming...

 

[RU848789]

Unfortunately, things are looking more favorable for both systems to eventually make landfalls on the Gulf coast Tuesday evening, both as minimal hurricanes (as currently forecast) - Marco in Houston and Laura on the FL Panhandle, after a possible landfall in extreme southern FL or the Keys on Monday afternoon. This is nowhere near written in stone, as we still don't even have actual named tropical storms yet, but they're predicted to be soon, and we still don't know what crossing the Yucatan will do to Marco, plus there are many other variables. Interests in South Florida and all along the Gulf Coast need to be aware of this one, as both storms will be crossing very warm waters with light wind shear, so strengthening well beyond the current forecast of weak Cat 1 strength for one or both is possible.

The last time two tropical systems made US mainland landfalls within a day of each other was in 1933, with a Cat 3 making landfall in Brownsville and a TS making landfall in Cedar Key, FL (after hitting the FL east coast as a Cat 3).

Laura and Marco Likely to Deliver Back-to-Back Landfalls on U.S. Gulf Coast; Here's How Rare That Is | The Weather Channel

There are two tropical forecast cones pointed at the U.S. mainland. It's happened before in the Gulf of Mexico. - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com

weather.com

OK, TD-13 officially just became TS Laura and there are major changes in the forecast track, which often happen when a storm is finally named, because they quite often have a center of circulation, which is displaced from the "estimated" COC when the storm wasn't well-formed and didn't have a closed circulation.

In Laura's case, the actual center was well south of where they were thinking it would be - so if the starting point changes, the changes downstream in the track are amplified further and in this case, the track is further south, very close to PR/Hispaniola/Cuba (which should prevent strengthening) and well south of the southern tip of Florida, although not too far (20-30 miles) from Key West, but only as a strong tropical storm.

The bigger risk is now what happens in the Gulf of Mexico, where the storm could easily become a hurricane with very warm waters ahead of it and it is forecast to reach minimal Cat 1 status (~75 mph), but intensity forecasts are not very accurate, so the storm could be stronger than that as it approaches the northern Gulf coast, likely somewhere between New Orleans and Panama City, with the center of the forecast track being right around the AL/FL border, on Wednesday morning (the forecast timing has slowed a bit). Stay tuned on this one.

And TD-14 (likely Marco soon) is still expected to cross the Yucatan Saturday night as a strong tropical storm, then head NNW through the Gulf, still aiming at the TX/LA coasts (center of the forecast track is right near Houston). Right now, SWerly shear is expected to be significant by the time Marco approaches the Gulf coast, which is why the forecast calls for some weakening before landfall as a strong tropical storm Tuesday afternoon. Stay tuned.

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[Tango Two]

James Spann says 2 tropical cyclones will be in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time early next week. Something that has happened only twice before in recorded history. This could create a phenomenon called the “Fujiwhara effect”, a situation where 2 nearby cyclones could possibly merge into one It’s too early to tell at this point, but everyone on the Gulf Coast should be paying attention.

 

[Tango Two]

 

[RU848789]

James Spann says 2 tropical cyclones will be in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time early next week. Something that has happened only twice before in recorded history. This could create a phenomenon called the “Fujiwhara effect”, a situation where 2 nearby cyclones could possibly merge into one It’s too early to tell at this point, but everyone on the Gulf Coast should be paying attention.

Those are last night's maps, i.e., they're outdated. It's also quite rare that the Fujiwhara Effect leads to merging storms; usually they simply rotate about a common center to some extent.

Fujiwhara Effect: Two Hurricanes Interacting

The Fujiwhara Effect is the term used to describe the rotation of two tropical storms or hurricanes around a common center.

www.thoughtco.com

 

[DJ Spanky]

No, because TD-13 formed before TD-14, so even if TD-14 was named before TD-13, TD-13 would get the "L" name and TD-14 would get the "M" name. Laura has formed, but Marco has not, yet - update coming...

That's weird - so if TD-13 petered out, never lived up to its potential and never became a tropical storm, we'd skip the "L" entry?

 

[RU848789]

That's weird - so if TD-13 petered out, never lived up to its potential and never became a tropical storm, we'd skip the "L" entry?

That's a great question - not 100% sure - might need to ask that one on a weather board...

By the way, it's nice to know how to paste graphics on the news site, but it's still 3 clicks vs. 1 on the old site: i but have to toggle the code, then paste the URL, then click insert, vs. just ctrl-V on the old site. Can you have that fixed in an hour or two? Thanks! :>)

 

[DJ Spanky]

By the way, it's nice to know how to paste graphics on the news site, but it's still 3 clicks vs. 1 on the old site: i but have to toggle the code, then paste the URL, then click insert, vs. just ctrl-V on the old site. Can you have that fixed in an hour or two? Thanks! :>)

Trust me, if I was building the software for the board it would be easier.

 

[RU848789]

Very quick update. Laura's track was shifted a bit west and slowed down again, which now puts the center of the forecast track smack dab at New Orleans Wednesday afternoon, as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane. Not the track anyone wants to see, especially since the storm will likely be traversing very warm GOM waters. We still don't know for sure that Laura will survive interactions with Hispaniola and Cuba, but assuming the storm does, there are scenarios where this could be stronger than a Cat 1. Marco's track is pretty similar - just nudged a few miles west of Houston with a Tuesday afternoon landfall as a strong, but weakening tropical storm (due to shear). At this point, Laura is looking more potent than Marco, but a long way to go and much can still change.

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Just awoke from a beer induced nap

Are these two storms gonna arrive at the same time?

 

[DJ Spanky]

I'm curious if the storm systems will affect each other.

 

[RU848789]

I'm curious if the storm systems will affect each other.

Unlikely, as their timings have shifted - Laura is now about 24 hours behind Marco with regard to landfall on the northern Gulf coast. Update coming...

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

I'm curious if the storm systems will affect each other.

would hate to be in a boat between them..

 

[RU848789]

Very quick update. Laura's track was shifted a bit west and slowed down again, which now puts the center of the forecast track smack dab at New Orleans Wednesday afternoon, as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane. Not the track anyone wants to see, especially since the storm will likely be traversing very warm GOM waters. We still don't know for sure that Laura will survive interactions with Hispaniola and Cuba, but assuming the storm does, there are scenarios where this could be stronger than a Cat 1. Marco's track is pretty similar - just nudged a few miles west of Houston with a Tuesday afternoon landfall as a strong, but weakening tropical storm (due to shear). At this point, Laura is looking more potent than Marco, but a long way to go and much can still change.

Some fairly significant changes since yesterday. Laura is now a modest tropical storm (45-50 mph) that ended up going slightly south of PR and is now forecast to go right over Hispaniola and Cuba, length-wise, which will keep the storm from strengthening - and some storms in the past have been killed by this path over land, but this one is still forecast to emerge into the GOM as a TS.

Laura is then expected to strengthen to a strong Cat 1 hurricane with 85-90 mph winds at landfall sometime Wednesday early evening (slowed down again) somewhere along the LA coast, with the center of the track having shifted well west of New Orleans to the central LA coast (NO is still well within the cone though (even Houston is just inside the cone). As the storm will be traversing very warm waters with light to moderate shear, further strengthening is possible vs. the current forecast.

Marco finally formed, but further east of where it was expected to, meaning the track will now not cross the Yucatan, so that won't weaken the storm which is currently strengthening, with winds now up to 65 mph and the storm is expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane for much of its track, until about 24 hours from landfall, when strong shear is forecast to weaken Marco into a strong TS (~60 mph) before landfall somewhere along the Texas coast on Tuesday afternoon, with the center of the track bringing it ashore very close to Houston, but obviously, still a lot of width to the track cone 3+ days out.

Keep in mind that in addition to the usual risks of high winds, storm surge, heavy surf, etc., both storms will combine to bring some pretty heavy rains to much of the Gulf Coast and well inland - especially from Laura in LA/MS/AK (and then north of there) - Marco is forecast to dissipate more quickly, sparing most of inland Texas from flooding rains.

Also, interactions between the two storms are expected to be minimal, given the time separation, although indirectly, Marco taking on the shear ahead of Laura could help Laura to not see much shear and strengthen more than forecast.

Hurricane Julia Update Statement

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Laura and Marco Likely to Deliver Back-to-Back Landfalls on U.S. Gulf Coast; Here's How Rare That Is

There are two tropical forecast cones pointed at the U.S. mainland. It's happened before in the Gulf of Mexico.

www.wunderground.com

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

Marco and Laura going to tag team Texas

 

[RU848789]

Some fairly significant changes since yesterday. Laura is now a modest tropical storm (45-50 mph) that ended up going slightly south of PR and is now forecast to go right over Hispaniola and Cuba, length-wise, which will keep the storm from strengthening - and some storms in the past have been killed by this path over land, but this one is still forecast to emerge into the GOM as a TS.

Laura is then expected to strengthen to a strong Cat 1 hurricane with 85-90 mph winds at landfall sometime Wednesday early evening (slowed down again) somewhere along the LA coast, with the center of the track having shifted well west of New Orleans to the central LA coast (NO is still well within the cone though (even Houston is just inside the cone). As the storm will be traversing very warm waters with light to moderate shear, further strengthening is possible vs. the current forecast.

Marco finally formed, but further east of where it was expected to, meaning the track will now not cross the Yucatan, so that won't weaken the storm which is currently strengthening, with winds now up to 65 mph and the storm is expected to be a Cat 1 hurricane for much of its track, until about 24 hours from landfall, when strong shear is forecast to weaken Marco into a strong TS (~60 mph) before landfall somewhere along the Texas coast on Tuesday afternoon, with the center of the track bringing it ashore very close to Houston, but obviously, still a lot of width to the track cone 3+ days out.

Keep in mind that in addition to the usual risks of high winds, storm surge, heavy surf, etc., both storms will combine to bring some pretty heavy rains to much of the Gulf Coast and well inland - especially from Laura in LA/MS/AK (and then north of there) - Marco is forecast to dissipate more quickly, sparing most of inland Texas from flooding rains.

Also, interactions between the two storms are expected to be minimal, given the time separation, although indirectly, Marco taking on the shear ahead of Laura could help Laura to not see much shear and strengthen more than forecast.

Hurricane Julia Update Statement

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Laura and Marco Likely to Deliver Back-to-Back Landfalls on U.S. Gulf Coast; Here's How Rare That Is

There are two tropical forecast cones pointed at the U.S. mainland. It's happened before in the Gulf of Mexico.

www.wunderground.com

Holy crap, the models made some big shifts this afternoon and the NHC now has Marco hitting New Orleans Monday afternoon as an 80-85 mph hurricane and then has Laura hitting just west (~25 miles) of New Orleans Wednesday afternoon as an 80-85 mph hurricane (meaning NO would be on the strong side of the storm). New Orleans wasn't even in Marco's forecast cone at 11 am, so this is a huge shift for Marco and while there is still some uncertainty for Marco's track it's decreasing, as Marco is only 2 days from landfall. The uncertainty for Laura's track is much greater, as it's now a full 2 days slower o the coast than Marco.

If these become and remain Cat 1 hurricanes at landfall, they won't be catastrophic for most (but "catastrophic" is in the eyes of the beholder and there will be locally very big impacts), but together one after the other would be brutal, especially if either one overperforms (possible with all that warm water, especially for Laura, which should see less shear). Would be nice if at least one of these deviated from the current track sparing NO a direct hit. And in almost every scenario now, there will likely be flooding rains (5-10" with locally higher amounts) for much of Louisiana and then 3-6" rains heading inland hundreds of miles. Stay tuned.

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

 

[RU848789]

This cracked me up. Could use the same meme on the asteroid, lol...

 

[DJ Spanky]

Amazing how bad their forecasts of the tracks have been.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Laura, the second storm, will be more of a severe hurricane so it seems. Much more organized and set to pick up steam via the Gulf.

 

[MulletCork]

Amazing how bad their forecasts of the tracks have been.

It’s. Like me at my job saying Enron is a buy buy buy

And then later excusing it by saying well it was just based on my algorithm and model

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

deep state Trying to distract people from this weeks event

 

[RU848789]

Holy crap, the models made some big shifts this afternoon and the NHC now has Marco hitting New Orleans Monday afternoon as an 80-85 mph hurricane and then has Laura hitting just west (~25 miles) of New Orleans Wednesday afternoon as an 80-85 mph hurricane (meaning NO would be on the strong side of the storm). New Orleans wasn't even in Marco's forecast cone at 11 am, so this is a huge shift for Marco and while there is still some uncertainty for Marco's track it's decreasing, as Marco is only 2 days from landfall. The uncertainty for Laura's track is much greater, as it's now a full 2 days slower o the coast than Marco.

If these become and remain Cat 1 hurricanes at landfall, they won't be catastrophic for most (but "catastrophic" is in the eyes of the beholder and there will be locally very big impacts), but together one after the other would be brutal, especially if either one overperforms (possible with all that warm water, especially for Laura, which should see less shear). Would be nice if at least one of these deviated from the current track sparing NO a direct hit. And in almost every scenario now, there will likely be flooding rains (5-10" with locally higher amounts) for much of Louisiana and then 3-6" rains heading inland hundreds of miles. Stay tuned.

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

More big changes for Laura's forecast, while Marco's forecast is largely unchanged. Since Marco is first up, let's talk about that one first. Marco just became a 75 mph hurricane, but there's basically very little change in the track/intensity forecasts, as Marco is expected to make landfall in the bayous of SE Louisiana, about 45 miles south of New Orleans, early Monday evening, as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane (~75 mph winds). Marco is still expected to weaken rapidly (due to high shear) either just before or after landfall so the rainfall amounts at the coast are expected to be copious, but significantly less inland.

Laura has been exceedingly difficult to forecast and has seen one of the largest set of track shifts I've ever seen, from landfall on the FL panhandle to near New Orleans to now at the TX/LA border. Part of the problem has been the difficulty of forecasting a storm that's meandering along/across Hispaniola and now Cuba, as that has led to storm structure and location changes along the way and downstream conditions are significantly affected by fairly small upstream changes (these upstream changes are greater than normal, i.e., chaos writ large).

So, Laura is now forecast to strike the TX/LA border late Wednesday night, but now as a Cat 2 hurricane with ~100 mph winds. I've been saying Marco absorbing all that shear and Laura slowing down over the warm GOM waters could lead to forecast strengthening and that's what we're seeing in the models. Still a long way to go and with the forecast history of Laura, so far, anywhere from Corpus Christi to New Orleans should still be keeping an eye on this one, but especially those from Houston to Lake Charles. In addition to being a much more dangerous storm with regard to winds/storm surge, Laura is expected to bring flooding rains (4-8") both to the coast and well inland in TX/LA/AK, but where those heavy rains are obviously depends on where the storm hits.

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

 

[RU848789]

Amazing how bad their forecasts of the tracks have been.

Yeah, Laura, in particular, has had one of the worst track forecasts I've seen, but there are reasons, as per my latest post. One of my favorite products from the NHC is their graphical forecast history page, which shows an animation of all the forecasts strung together (it can be started/stopped anywhere). That really shows the wild fluctuations well.

LAURA Graphics Archive: <br> 5-day Forecast Track and Watch/Warning Graphic

www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[Proud NJ Sports Fan]

CA could use a few Canes

Drought, wildfires

 

[DJ Spanky]

CA could use a few Canes

I don't get how throwing some coked up football players at the fires would help.

 

[Postman_1]

Have two hurricanes ever hit the same area within this short of a timeframe before? It’s gotta be crazy being down there in the path of both of these storms.

 

[RU848789]

Have two hurricanes ever hit the same area within this short of a timeframe before? It’s gotta be crazy being down there in the path of both of these storms.

Rare, but it has happened, even at the same time, in the GOM - see post #3...

 

[Doteman]

once inland where are the remnants expected to go? Will NJ be affected next weekend?

 

[RU848789]

More big changes for Laura's forecast, while Marco's forecast is largely unchanged. Since Marco is first up, let's talk about that one first. Marco just became a 75 mph hurricane, but there's basically very little change in the track/intensity forecasts, as Marco is expected to make landfall in the bayous of SE Louisiana, about 45 miles south of New Orleans, early Monday evening, as a minimal Cat 1 hurricane (~75 mph winds). Marco is still expected to weaken rapidly (due to high shear) either just before or after landfall so the rainfall amounts at the coast are expected to be copious, but significantly less inland.

Laura has been exceedingly difficult to forecast and has seen one of the largest set of track shifts I've ever seen, from landfall on the FL panhandle to near New Orleans to now at the TX/LA border. Part of the problem has been the difficulty of forecasting a storm that's meandering along/across Hispaniola and now Cuba, as that has led to storm structure and location changes along the way and downstream conditions are significantly affected by fairly small upstream changes (these upstream changes are greater than normal, i.e., chaos writ large).

So, Laura is now forecast to strike the TX/LA border late Wednesday night, but now as a Cat 2 hurricane with ~100 mph winds. I've been saying Marco absorbing all that shear and Laura slowing down over the warm GOM waters could lead to forecast strengthening and that's what we're seeing in the models. Still a long way to go and with the forecast history of Laura, so far, anywhere from Corpus Christi to New Orleans should still be keeping an eye on this one, but especially those from Houston to Lake Charles. In addition to being a much more dangerous storm with regard to winds/storm surge, Laura is expected to bring flooding rains (4-8") both to the coast and well inland in TX/LA/AK, but where those heavy rains are obviously depends on where the storm hits.

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

Models continue to struggle with both storms. Marco is now forecast to turn more to the west, mostly missing the New Orleans area and coming ashore on the central LA coast as a 70-75 mph storm Monday night, but just barely, and several models have it missing LA and heading into the NE Texas coast by late Tuesday night, but much weaker, since regardless of its track it's forecast to weaken very quickly after Monday night, due to strong mid/upper level wind shear. That's why rainfall forecasts beyond the coast are so low.

And Laura's forecast didn't change much, with the center of the forecast track bringing it ashore in far western LA on Wednesday night (the cone is ~100 miles on either side of that at landfall) as a strong Cat 2 hurricane (105 mph), which is another bump up in forecast strength, as I thought would happen. Some models are indicating even more strengthening, so a Cat 3 hurricane that's strengthening during landfall is on the table - that would be a pretty scary scenario with regard to winds and storm surge. Rainfall amounts from FL are still expected to be 4-8" along the coast and well inland. This is the storm to really watch.

 

[RU848789]

once inland where are the remnants expected to go? Will NJ be affected next weekend?

Marco will be completely dissipated by Wednesday and Laura's remnants will head north and then NE towards the Ohio Valley before dissipating, but moisture from the remnants could reach our area by next weekend (but just as rain, not wind).

 

[BigEastPhil]

Key words over next few days:

Wind Shear = will cause Marco to remain as tropical storm and not a hurricane

Rapid Intensification = what will happen to Laura as she intensifies to be a major hurricane - possibly a cat 3

 

[T2Kplus10]

Amazing how bad their forecasts of the tracks have been.

+1
Marco is a complete bust.

 

[RU848789]

Models continue to struggle with both storms. Marco is now forecast to turn more to the west, mostly missing the New Orleans area and coming ashore on the central LA coast as a 70-75 mph storm Monday night, but just barely, and several models have it missing LA and heading into the NE Texas coast by late Tuesday night, but much weaker, since regardless of its track it's forecast to weaken very quickly after Monday night, due to strong mid/upper level wind shear. That's why rainfall forecasts beyond the coast are so low.

And Laura's forecast didn't change much, with the center of the forecast track bringing it ashore in far western LA on Wednesday night (the cone is ~100 miles on either side of that at landfall) as a strong Cat 2 hurricane (105 mph), which is another bump up in forecast strength, as I thought would happen. Some models are indicating even more strengthening, so a Cat 3 hurricane that's strengthening during landfall is on the table - that would be a pretty scary scenario with regard to winds and storm surge. Rainfall amounts from FL are still expected to be 4-8" along the coast and well inland. This is the storm to really watch.

As forecast, Marco is weakening from strong mid/upper level wind shear (a bit more than expected though, as it was thought it might still be a 70 mph storm at landfall) and is now down to a 50 mph tropical storm as it approaches the SE Louisiana coast, with landfall expected this evening as a 45-50 mph storm, so impacts are likely to be minor. Rainfall was always forecast to be much less with Marco, which is expected to bring 2-4" of rain to coastal areas of LA-MS-AL (and far NW FL) and 1-2" for areas inland from the coast over the next day or two (graphic below), as the storm rapidly dissipates due to the strong shear.

The forecast for Laura finally seems to be stabilizing to some extent, as the forecasted landfall location and intensity have changed much less over the last 24 hours than it has before that. As of now, the forecast has Laura making landfall in far western LA late Wednesday night as a strong Cat 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds.

Given track variabilities at almost 3 days out (the storm is still south of Cuba), everywhere from Houston to Central Louisiana still needs to be on guard here and it's still very possible that the storm could strengthen more than foreacast, given very warm GOM temps and low shear on its path. Storm surge and wind damage could be severe and flooding rainfall (graphic below for days 1-5 - need to subtract out the amounts from days 1-2 to get Laura's rainfall) is expected from the coast to well inland, as Laura heads north, then NE after landfall. The NHC comment below is worth noting.

Users are again reminded to not to focus on the exact details of
the track or intensity forecasts as the average NHC track error at
72 h is around 100 miles and the average intensity error is around
15 mph (13 kt). In addition, wind, storm surge, and rainfall
hazards will extend far from the center.

Post-Tropical Cyclone Karl Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

Tropical Storm Julia Forecast Discussion

www.nhc.noaa.gov

WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts - 48-hour Total for Days 1-2

www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Tropical Headquarters

This is THE forum to discuss developing and active tropical systems.

www.americanwx.com

 

[BigEastPhil]

Poor Mike Seidel. The guy has been demoted to the "B" team. For Marco, The Weather Channel had him stationed in Key West where neither storm (Marco or Laura) was forecasted to be anywhere near.

Worst places to be than Key West for sure but for a meteorologist, you want to be in the thick of things.

I still think Seidel is being punished for his act of massive exaggeration last year when it seemed like he was being tossed way by winds during a hurricane only to see teenagers walking 20 feet from him unaffected.

Its a shame because I always liked Seidel

 

[BigEastPhil]

Key words over next few days:

Wind Shear = will cause Marco to remain as tropical storm and not a hurricane

Rapid Intensification = what will happen to Laura as she intensifies to be a major hurricane - possibly a cat 3

Definitely looking like Laura will be CAT 3.......