OT: The Little Clipper That Could - a few inches of snow likely tonight in much of NJ (esp between 195 and 80)

[RU848789]

Figured someone else might've started a thread on this, but no, so here you go - it's a pretty minor event, but given how little snow has fallen this winter for most, it's at least noteworthy. Been talking about this clipper for a couple of days in the pattern thread and since last night the models have trended wetter/snowier for much of EPA and NJ between 276/195 and 80, such that now we have advisories up for Carbon/Monroe (Poconos) for 3-5" of snow tonight and for Warren, Hunterdon and Northampton fo 2-4" of snow.

In addition, areas outside of the advisories but between 276/195 and 80 are mostly forecast to get 1-2" and up to 3" is easily possible in these locations, as per the map below. The band of precip is predicted to be pretty narrow, such that areas south of 276/195 are likely to get <1" of snow (or mostly rain) and areas along and N of 80, especially towards and including NYC are likely to also get <1" of snow (which will almost certainly melt on paved surfaces).

The snow will fall mostly between 10 pm and 4 am and will likely start as rain south of 78, but eventually change to snow, but with temps slightly above freezing (mid-30s) accumulations south of 78 may be limited to grassy/colder surfaces; north of 78 temps should just make it down to 31-32F and the snow should accumulate on all surfaces at night time, meaning those areas may have some slick roads for the morning commute.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

 

[RU848789]

Note that most of the 18Z models, which just came out, generally support the snowfall amounts in the NWS maps (or more in some spots), but it's worth noting that there are a couple of models (the Canadian CMC and the Canadian RGEM - somewhat like our NAM) showing <1" of snow for everyone, indicating a greater than usual bust potential.

 

[RU4Real]

Ground temps are warm and I'm thinking there will be considerable melt on contact.

 

[Knight Shift]

@e5fdny , @koleszar , @knightfan7 - have your snowblowers assume the ready position.

 

[koleszar]

@e5fdny , @koleszar , @knightfan7 - have your snowblowers assume the ready position.

It's still on the crate in the box and in the shop. I saw a pretty picture of it online to see what should be in the box.

 

[Knight Shift]

It's still on the crate and in the box in the shop. I saw a pretty picture of it online to see what should be in there.

I had to go away to AZ to get my fill of snow shit. I had to clean up downed limbs from two trees that were in the road, and the city did not say if they would pick up the brush/limbs. So, loaded up a pickup truck and hauled it to the county dump. $5 for a whole truckload. What a bargain.

I feel like I live in a snow globe lately. As @RU4Real said, the surface temperatures SHOULD cause anything that hits the ground to melt.

 

[NickRU714]

It's still on the crate and in the box in the shop. I saw a pretty picture of it online to see what should be in there.

Don't worry.
The shovels and ice scrapers are away in the shed.
There will be no snow.
It has been decided.

 

[T2Kplus20]

LOL!

That is all.

 

[e5fdny]

@e5fdny , @koleszar , @knightfan7 - have your snowblowers assume the ready position.

Had mine prepped in the Fall.

We are in the clear.👍

 

[knightfan7]

I had to go away to AZ to get my fill of snow shit. I had to clean up downed limbs from two trees that were in the road, and the city did not say if they would pick up the brush/limbs. So, loaded up a pickup truck and hauled it to the county dump. $5 for a whole truckload. What a bargain.

I feel like I live in a snow globe lately. As @RU4Real said, the surface temperatures SHOULD cause anything that hits the ground to melt.

Yeah, mid 40's should keep the total down if not, with the exception of cars and decks, wipe it away before it can stick.

 

[RU848789]

You guys close to the coast and anyone south of probably the Raritan, are going to have a very hard time accumulating snow, plus you'll actually likely get as much rain as snow...

 

[knightfan7]

You guys close to the coast and anyone south of probably the Raritan, are going to have a very hard time accumulating snow, plus you'll actually likely get as much rain as snow...

 

[e5fdny]

You guys close to the coast and anyone south of probably the Raritan, are going to have a very hard time accumulating snow, plus you'll actually likely get as much rain as snow...

I’ve covered that…

Had mine prepped in the Fall.

We are in the clear.👍

 

[bac2therac]

What happened to Saturday's threat...oops aint that a shame

 

[T2Kplus20]

What happened to Saturday's threat...oops aint that a shame

 

[Tango Two]

 

[RU848789]

OK, late nighters, let's see if we get some snow - it's snowing in all of Hunterdon/Warren/Morris already and starting to change to snow in Somerset. Dropped from 45 to 39F over the past hour here in Metuchen, as the rain started finally reaching the ground in the last 30 minutes. Hoping that that heavy slug approaching from Somerset/Hunterdon and seemingly aimed at us in northern Middlesex will get here as it changes to snow - would love to get 1-2" out of this even if it's just on the colder surfaces, but at the rates advertised for a couple of hours by the mesoscale models, I think the snow will even accumulate on paved surfaces. We'll see.

 

[RU848789]

Just started having sleet and snow mix in with the rain here, as it's down to 37F, and reports of accumulating snow in Hunterdon/Warren/Somerset and elsewhere...

 

[RU848789]

What happened to Saturday's threat...oops aint that a shame

WTF is wrong with you? Seriously what is it? Do you want to be known as T3K? Posts like this are the equivalent of me coming over to your early bracketology threads and crapping all over your early guesses, many of which have not panned out at all. Do you want me to start trolling those threads? They'd become an absolute mess and there wouldn't be anything the mods would (in theory, but we know you'd likely be protected) do since it's what you and your buddies do to any weather thread I start. Luckily for you I wouldn't do that, since I'm not a dick.

And the Saturday threat is far from dead, as the models are all over the place, but there is still potential for a significant snowfall for some in the Philly-NJ-NYC area - and there is also the possibility we get a whiff or more rain than snow. That's what happens sometimes.

 

[Joey Bags]

Rain/sleet mix here in hunterdon, not a single flake yet. The radar algorithms are messed up, it’s raining in Flemington as well right now.

Using the doppler correlation coefficient anyone south of 78 is likely sleet and/or rain.

 

[RU848789]

Rain/sleet mix here in hunterdon, not a single flake yet. The radar algorithms are messed up, it’s raining in Flemington as well right now.

Where in Hunterdon? Reports of snow in Clinton, Somerville and Basking Ridge. We got a coating of sleet/snow from that last batch, but only because we had high rates for about 30 minutes, which overcame the wet ground and 36-37F temps.

 

[Joey Bags]

Where in Hunterdon? Reports of snow in Clinton, Somerville and Basking Ridge. We got a coating of sleet/snow from that last batch, but only because we had high rates for about 30 minutes, which overcame the wet ground and 36-37F temps.

That’s incredible, I’m in Ringoes a couple miles south of Flemington. We actually switched back to plain rain. Temp 34.7 and steady, dewpoints are marginal but not terrible at 31.2. Can’t believe I stayed up for this after seeing the reports upstream and some of the short term modeling that had my immediate area in some banding. Same thing happened last storm where we inexplicably stayed rain/sleet longer than predicted.

 

[RU848789]

That’s incredible, I’m in Ringoes a couple miles south of Flemington. We actually switched back to plain rain. Temp 34.7 and steady, dewpoints are marginal but not terrible at 31.2. Can’t believe I stayed up for this after seeing the reports upstream and some of the short term modeling that had my immediate area in some banding. Same thing happened last storm where we inexplicably stayed rain/sleet longer than predicted.

Sorry to hear that - should be snow now, no? On the dual-pol, it looks like the sleet line is south of you now. Although your intensity looks to be less in the southernmost part of Hunterdon, which was not supposed to be the case and could mean rain during low intensity precip - the heaviest precip banding has set up 20-30 miles north of the forecast.

 

[RU848789]

Had about 30 minutes of fairly heavy sleet, which I'm actually very happy about as it was able to accumulate a lot better than snow would have at 35-36F (down to 34F now), since ice pellets have a far lower surface area/volume ratio than snow does. Now we have a coating of sleet on all the colder surfaces, so now that it just flipped to moderate snow, we should be able to accumulate the snow. About 0.2" of sleet on car tops/colder surfaces now. Let's see if we can get at least 1". Looks like intensity just isn't there down to 195, although precip is starting to move that way.

 

[RU848789]

Big gorgeous flakes coming down now close to heavily and accumulating easily on the sleet as expected. This is 1" per hour snowfall. 34F.

 

[RU848789]

Huge flakes, heavy snow - already have 3/4" in the last 20 minutes, although radar shows things lessening a little bit soon. 2" is now possible if the band holds together for another hour or so. It's even coming down fast enough to accumulate on the street in front of my house, so things could be a bit slick for the am commute.

 

[RU848789]

Up to 1.1" as of 3 am, as the intensity did let up over the last 20 minutes and judging by the radar, I'd guess we have another 45 minutes of accumulating snow, so maybe we'll get 1.5", which would be a major snowstorm for this winter, lol.

 

[RU848789]

Up to 1.1" as of 3 am, as the intensity did let up over the last 20 minutes and judging by the radar, I'd guess we have another 45 minutes of accumulating snow, so maybe we'll get 1.5", which would be a major snowstorm for this winter, lol.

We ended up getting another hour and 15 minutes of light to moderate snow, finishing up with 1.6". It's beautiful outside right now, as it's a very pretty snow, sticking to everything, especially with light winds. Great snowball snow. My guess is with temps around 33F here and not full coverage of paved surfaces, the roads will likely be fine by 6-7 am with the snow having stopped; areas well NW that are under 32F might have more issues. Up to 3.85" on the season and wondering if Central Park will get the 0.7" they need to get to 2.9" to surpass 72-73's record of snow futility (2.8") - they should, based on radar history and reports I've seen, but they're notorious for undermeasuring snowfall.

 

[RU4Real]

Precisely as expected in Monmouth. Quarter inch on unpaved surfaces, nothing on roads or walkways.

Hopefully this puts a cap on the year.

 

[knightfan7]

Precisely as expected in Monmouth. Quarter inch on unpaved surfaces, nothing on roads or walkways.

Hopefully this puts a cap on the year.

Can't say what happened overnight but woke to no snow on ground, just a bit of ice on the deck.

 

[Joey Bags]

Sorry to hear that - should be snow now, no? On the dual-pol, it looks like the sleet line is south of you now. Although your intensity looks to be less in the southernmost part of Hunterdon, which was not supposed to be the case and could mean rain during low intensity precip - the heaviest precip banding has set up 20-30 miles north of the forecast.

Started changing over at 2am, then i believe stayed all snow

 

[RU848789]

We ended up getting another hour and 15 minutes of light to moderate snow, finishing up with 1.6". It's beautiful outside right now, as it's a very pretty snow, sticking to everything, especially with light winds. Great snowball snow. My guess is with temps around 33F here and not full coverage of paved surfaces, the roads will likely be fine by 6-7 am with the snow having stopped; areas well NW that are under 32F might have more issues. Up to 3.85" on the season and wondering if Central Park will get the 0.7" they need to get to 2.9" to surpass 72-73's record of snow futility (2.8") - they should, based on radar history and reports I've seen, but they're notorious for undermeasuring snowfall.

Got another 0.2" in that ~6 am band that went through here - just woke up about 30 min ago and had wiped the board earlier, so my total is now 1.8" for the event, bringing the season total up to 4.05". Someone else in Metuchen reported 2.0", so 1.8" seems about right, as his looks to be measured on grass, which can add about 0.2" to a total (trapped air in the grass). Looking at the radar loop, we got quite lucky in northern Middlesex, as we stayed in the heaviest bands for most of the event, while folks just 5-10 miles south to us did not. Plenty of reports of 2-3" in Somerset/Morris/Warren...

 

[Knight Shift]

Can't say what happened overnight but woke to no snow on ground, just a bit of ice on the deck.

 

[knightfan7]

Per the NWS Sparta won the snow lottery with 4.5 inches.

Text Products for PNS Issued by PHI

 

[Caliknight]

2:30AM posts lol. #Hmmmm

 

[mildone]

Got another 0.2" in that ~6 am band that went through here - just woke up about 30 min ago and had wiped the board earlier, so my total is now 1.8" for the event, bringing the season total up to 4.05". Someone else in Metuchen reported 2.0", so 1.8" seems about right, as his looks to be measured on grass, which can add about 0.2" to a total (trapped air in the grass). Looking at the radar loop, we got quite lucky in northern Middlesex, as we stayed in the heaviest bands for most of the event, while folks just 5-10 miles south to us did not. Plenty of reports of 2-3" in Somerset/Morris/Warren...

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@RU848789, get that dude an RU branded ruler fer goshsakes.

He's measuring snow with a pink Office Depot ruler. WTF?

 

[RU848789]

@RU848789, get that dude an RU branded ruler fer goshsakes.

He's measuring snow with a pink Office Depot ruler. WTF?

He's measuring snow in the grass and you're offended by the ruler? Priorities, man, priorities. Amazing how quickly the March sun and temps in the mid-40s melt snow - we only have appreciable snow left in the shade in Metuchen (my house has a lot of shade, thankfully).

 

[Caliknight]

Thankfully!

 

[RU4Real]

He's measuring snow in the grass and you're offended by the ruler? Priorities, man, priorities. Amazing how quickly the March sun and temps in the mid-40s melt snow - we only have appreciable snow left in the shade in Metuchen (my house has a lot of shade, thankfully).

All the snow that had accumulated in the tree branches in my little forest came down to the ground at the same precise instant about 10:00 this morning. So now everything is gone.

 

[RU848789]

Figured someone else might've started a thread on this, but no, so here you go - it's a pretty minor event, but given how little snow has fallen this winter for most, it's at least noteworthy. Been talking about this clipper for a couple of days in the pattern thread and since last night the models have trended wetter/snowier for much of EPA and NJ between 276/195 and 80, such that now we have advisories up for Carbon/Monroe (Poconos) for 3-5" of snow tonight and for Warren, Hunterdon and Northampton fo 2-4" of snow.

In addition, areas outside of the advisories but between 276/195 and 80 are mostly forecast to get 1-2" and up to 3" is easily possible in these locations, as per the map below. The band of precip is predicted to be pretty narrow, such that areas south of 276/195 are likely to get <1" of snow (or mostly rain) and areas along and N of 80, especially towards and including NYC are likely to also get <1" of snow (which will almost certainly melt on paved surfaces).

The snow will fall mostly between 10 pm and 4 am and will likely start as rain south of 78, but eventually change to snow, but with temps slightly above freezing (mid-30s) accumulations south of 78 may be limited to grassy/colder surfaces; north of 78 temps should just make it down to 31-32F and the snow should accumulate on all surfaces at night time, meaning those areas may have some slick roads for the morning commute.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

The map of snowfall reports, below, shows that the NWS forecast from a few hours before the event, in the quoted post above, was fairly good, but not perfect. Somewhat less snow fell in Hunterdon County (especially the southern half) than expected and generally less snow fell along and south of 276/195 than predicted, while a bit more fell in Sussex/Morris than forecast. Having said that, most snowfall forecasts are +/-1" or more and if one is only forecast to get 1" or 2", being off by 1" is a major departure, relatively speaking.

Personally, we were in the 1-2” swath and got 1.8”, which was spot on. Note that for some reason, the NWS-NYC hasn’t submitted snowfall reports for Union-Essex-Hudson-Passaic-Bergen and NYC despite there being some snow (Central Park only got 0.1” and most think that was another undermeasurement – if they waited until 7 am, which they often do, much would’ve compacted/melted).