OT: Tornado Watch in Central Jersey Till 7pm

bac2therac

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Why would you call today's forecast a bust? A tornado watch just means that tornadoes are possible, so having a tornado watch, but no tornadoes isn't a bust, per se, especially when all of the other impacts were generally realized. The area had 1/4-1/2" of rain everywhere, with up to 1" common in many areas and over 1" in localized areas and severe t-storms hit large parts of the area with significant hail (especially in SNJ, where 2" hailstones were reported) and very gusty winds, with some downed trees/poles and several thousand power outages.

https://www.nj.com/weather/2022/05/...d-as-strong-thunderstorms-hit-the-region.html

I do agree with your skepticism on tomorrow's heat, though, as most of the models are now showing max temps tomorrow in the low 90s for the urban corridor and upper 80s well NW of 95 and, of course, the low 80s near the coast with sea breezes...and temps barely getting to 90F on Sunday for the warmest locations near/along the 95 corrdor from Wilmington to Trenton.

3QN57TBWGBBANHJVWRWELEANTY.jpg

Its a bust because less than 24 hours before they werent even mentioning rain...every 1-2 day forecast has busted badly this week. We went from just some showers Wednesday night predicted on Monday to 1.25 inches of rain actual

Temperature and sky conditions predictions this week gave also failed

Oh and one of the biggest severe weather threat busts in a decade that incredibly closed schools
 

newell138

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Its a bust because less than 24 hours before they werent even mentioning rain...every 1-2 day forecast has busted badly this week. We went from just some showers Wednesday night predicted on Monday to 1.25 inches of rain actual

Temperature and sky conditions predictions this week gave also failed

Oh and one of the biggest severe weather threat busts in a decade that incredibly closed schools
Don’t say “bust” to #s, he gets all frothy
 

mildone

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Don’t say “bust” to #s, he gets all frothy
Like he’s the only one.

I believe I may be the only male on the planet who genuinely loves women for their minds and their hearts. My favorite porn site is the Mensa membership directory.
 
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RUScrew85

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That

The sold sign in the background is the only thing that creatively elevates the post beyond “worn out joke” status.

Jokes like this don't wear out after three days. But defending your buddy is admirable, I guess.
 

mildone

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Jokes like this don't wear out after three days. But defending your buddy is admirable, I guess.
Hey, you’re not ignoring me (again)? 😀

Its not worn out due to age, but due to frequency. Perhaps I should’ve said over-saturated.

I‘m not so much defending him as happy it wasn’t me making the same kind of mistake first. I love porn and do a lot of multitasking with 4 monitors all busy all the time. So it’s always seemed inevitable I’d do it one of these days. Still does.

Actually, I was in a business-related web meeting a while back, sharing my screen with a bunch of folks, mostly C suite people. At one point, a close woman-friend sent me an email or instant message in which she wrote “Did you know that the Right Whale has a 10 foot prehensile penis? Hm.”. And outlook popped that message up on the screen I was sharing for whatever the hover-timeout period was, maybe 3 seconds. Oops.

I disabled that notification pop up, but you know, that was closing the barn door after the horse had fled.

All of which doesn’t mean I don’t plan to tease numbers mercilessly and endlessly - anybody that knows me knows better, including numbers, who is probably shocked I haven’t already started.

It’s all good dirty fun. 🙂
 
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RU848789

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Its a bust because less than 24 hours before they werent even mentioning rain...every 1-2 day forecast has busted badly this week. We went from just some showers Wednesday night predicted on Monday to 1.25 inches of rain actual

Temperature and sky conditions predictions this week gave also failed

Oh and one of the biggest severe weather threat busts in a decade that incredibly closed schools
Yeah, but the thread wasn't about the forecast 36 hours out, which was certainly poor, as predictions until that point were for "a few spotty showers" on Friday. 24 hours out the models and forecast changed considerably, as per below, and the forecast by yesterday morning was pretty good with decent verification for severe storms, downpours, and at least one tornado. People closing schools for severe t-storms is dumb, but irrelevant with regard to the forecast.

Also, expecting perfect precip predictions on MCS's more than 24 hours out (for the late Weds/early Thurs system) is simply foolish, as the science simply isn't there (and may never be) to predict such high uncertainty mesoscale systems accurately - the QPF was predicted reasonably accurately by Wednesday afternoon, which is about the best one can expect for such systems. I don't think you'll ever understand the limitations of numerical modeling of chaotic, stochastic phenomena, as I've been saying this for years and you keep insisting the forecasts should be better.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
343 PM EDT Thu May 19 2022

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Another shortwave trough and an associated MCV complex
currently moving east across the central Mississippi and lower
Ohio Valleys are expected to progress toward the region
overnight. The approaching wave will lift a more pronounced warm
front north through the area during the morning hours Friday.
Temperatures, dewpoints, and thus instability will rise as the
front lifts through the area as the day progresses. Meanwhile,
the broad synoptic ridging will begin quickly building
throughout the day and will continue building through Friday
night.

The latest CAM guidance suite indicates a wide variety of
outcomes related to how the remnant MCV progresses across the
region from the mid-morning and into the afternoon on Friday.
The strengthening ridge axis across the East Coast and western
Atlantic introduces a complex and low predictability scenario.
It seems that the strengthening ridge axis may be enough to
weaken/dry out the MCV or even push it north of the local
forecast area (into northeastern Pennsylvania and Upstate New
York). However, if the MCV slows down overnight and passes
across the region after daytime heating has allowed instability
to build, we could see a few thunderstorms become strong to
locally severe. In any case, the probability of convection has
undoubtedly increased enough to warrant a wholesale update and
increase to the PoP and weather forecast for the daytime period.

Aside from the convection potential on Friday, skies should
start out partly cloudy with scattered clouds expected much of
the day. The cloud cover will be more widespread if the MCV
holds together or restrengthens across the region. Any lingering
fog should mix out fairly quickly by late morning. Southerly
winds will increase to around 10-15 mph. Expect highs about 10
degrees above normal in the mid to upper 80s in most areas.
 

RUBOB72

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Stop picking on Numbers … I saw a white tornado in my bathtub on Thursday evening. Lysol will do that sometimes. That ‘s what is so funny in these times. With all the elevated and sophisticated instruments available to track, analyze and predict the daily weather our “ weather gurus” miss many more times than Tex, Al, Lloyd, Sam ever did .
 
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fsg2

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Stop picking on Numbers … I saw a white tornado in my bathtub on Thursday evening. Lysol will do that sometimes. That ‘s what is so funny in these times. With all the elevated and sophisticated instruments available to track, analyze and predict the daily weather our “ weather gurus” miss many more times than Tex, Al, Lloyd, Sam ever did .

I think Numbers saw a white tornado in his bathroom on Thursday, too.

Think it was technically classified a monsoon.
 

RUPete

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Stop picking on Numbers … I saw a white tornado in my bathtub on Thursday evening. Lysol will do that sometimes. That ‘s what is so funny in these times. With all the elevated and sophisticated instruments available to track, analyze and predict the daily weather our “ weather gurus” miss many more times than Tex, Al, Lloyd, Sam ever did .
Don’t bring up Tex Antoine - we are showing our age! You for referencing him and me for knowing the reference.
 

RUBOB72

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‘‘Twas nothing better than to see Tex in the evening telling us a snowstorm was coming by morning and then waking up to bright sunny skies . Forgot the illustrious Frank Fields … think his kid is somewhere on the left coast?
 

RUPete

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‘‘Twas nothing better than to see Tex in the evening telling us a snowstorm was coming by morning and then waking up to bright sunny skies . Forgot the illustrious Frank Fields … think his kid is somewhere on the left coast?
I remember when either the Post or NY Daily News questioned Frank Field’s credentials. He freaked out and used his segment to angrily refute the article.
 

RUBOB72

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Even if Fields had absolutely no credentials he was still a thousand times more accurate than many of the ones shilling now on ABC , NBC, CBS , WPIX . NJ12 news is probably better.
 

RU848789

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Hey, you’re not ignoring me (again)? 😀

Its not worn out due to age, but due to frequency. Perhaps I should’ve said over-saturated.

I‘m not so much defending him as happy it wasn’t me making the same kind of mistake first. I love porn and do a lot of multitasking with 4 monitors all busy all the time. So it’s always seemed inevitable I’d do it one of these days. Still does.

Actually, I was in a business-related web meeting a while back, sharing my screen with a bunch of folks, mostly C suite people. At one point, a close woman-friend sent me an email or instant message in which she wrote “Did you know that the Right Whale has a 10 foot prehensile penis? Hm.”. And outlook popped that message up on the screen I was sharing for whatever the hover-timeout period was, maybe 3 seconds. Oops.

I disabled that notification pop up, but you know, that was closing the barn door after the horse had fled.

All of which doesn’t mean I don’t plan to tease numbers mercilessly and endlessly - anybody that knows me knows better, including numbers, who is probably shocked I haven’t already started.

It’s all good dirty fun. 🙂
I fully expect the teasing next time we're hanging out and would be disappointed otherwise, but after the first half dozen cracks, teasing goes from funny to unfunny, as frequency is not the friend of funny, unless there's some original angle on the joke and that certainly isn't the case in this thread for the most part (the first thread had some good lines, as it was fresh). But it's a near certainty that our regular troll population will continue to make unfunny jokes about it until the end of time, as that's how they roll. I've already been largely ignoring them in other threads (like weather threads), so ignoring them about this won't be too hard, especially as I've been posting a lot less on this board since COVID/science threads were banned.

I bet I can guess who sent the whale note, lol. Anyway, at work, I always had notifications off whenever I was presenting something or leading a meeting, especially after watching my VP boss not do that in our senior staff meeting - and an email notification popped up saying something to the effect of, "the job actions will likely be scheduled for next Friday." Needless to say, he apologized and felt like an idiot, but to his credit he then had to let us know some layoffs were being planned (and fortunately, none of us in the room were on the chopping block).
 

RU848789

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Even if Fields had absolutely no credentials he was still a thousand times more accurate than many of the ones shilling now on ABC , NBC, CBS , WPIX . NJ12 news is probably better.
That's selective memory. Models/forecasts are far better now than they were ~25 years ago when Frank Field was last on TV. Also, while Frank didn't have a formal meteorology degree, I think his military experience doing forecasts for the European theater in WWII, plus 40 years in the business count pretty heavily.
 

RUBOB72

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I don’t know how much is selective memory but I’m not the only one on this board who thinks those meteorology computer models aren’t worth two … patuties. Keep the updates coming Numbers I always find them informational and sometimes even accurate. Once in awhile even a blind squirrel can find a nut. Just fooling Loyal Son of Rutgers. Stay well… GO RUTGERS !!!!!!!
 

RU848789

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Jul 27, 2001
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I don’t know how much is selective memory but I’m not the only one on this board who thinks those meteorology computer models aren’t worth two … patuties. Keep the updates coming Numbers I always find them informational and sometimes even accurate. Once in awhile even a blind squirrel can find a nut. Just fooling Loyal Son of Rutgers. Stay well… GO RUTGERS !!!!!!!
That's because most haven't actually researched the topic of forecast accuracy improvements. Research shows that general forecasts today at 5 days are as accurate as 1980 forecasts were at 1 day and that current hurricane forecasts at 72 hours are as accurate as 24-hour hurricane forecasts were 40 years ago.

But forecasts will likely never be able to predict how much rain will fall from a t-storm at point A more than a few hours in advance (due to their mesoscale nature and very high energetics, which models simply can't handle well) and general forecasts will also likely never be able to be accurate beyond about 10-14 days (due to chaos).

https://phys.org/news/2019-01-geoscientists-insist-weather-accurate.html
 
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mildone

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I bet I can guess who sent the whale note, lol.
Was Kim B. She was delighted when I told her how the message was on full display in a business meeting like that. Probably figured she double-bonus points for that. LOL
 

NewJerseyGuy

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Maybe give it a rest. While there's oodles of comedy gold in that event, it's just getting threads locked and deleted, which serves nobody.
Numbers, Sorry I missed the initial post.

You’re taking it well.

You should see if Richie will let you do an AMA thread on your NSFW post