OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

Discussion in 'Rutgers Football' started by RU848789, Aug 31, 2018.

  1. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    No major concerns yet, but as we enter the busiest period in the tropical season in the Atlantic Basin, it's time to start paying attention to a few potential systems and the pattern in general, which has become more favorable for Cape Verde systems. The Cape Verde season looks like it's about to kick off, as PTC (potential tropical cyclone - new terminology) #6 is poised to become Tropical Storm Florence in the next day or two, just south of the Cape Verde Islands. However, this storm is likely to move NW after that and become a fish storm.

    The more interesting potential is for some of the African waves after that - if any of those starts developing next week, given the steering patterns in the western Attlantic, where strong high pressure will be situated, they would likely move mostly westward across the Atlantic, threatening the Caribbean and maybe eventually places like Florida/the GOM/Mexico. Way, way, way too far to worry about yet, but worth watching.

    Roughly 85 percent of all Atlantic major hurricanes have origins traceable to tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa, near or south of the Cape Verde Islands. These tropical waves are driven by the contrast of dry heat over the Sahara over far northern Africa and the cooler, more humid air over the far wetter regions in central Africa.

    Also, as of right now, there's an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean that is forecast to meander towards and across Florida over the next few days and has some small chance of becoming a tropical system in the Gulf next week. Even if it doesn't become tropical it is likely to bring some heavy and possibly flooding rains to the northern Gulf Coast.

    And finally, the eastern Pacific has a bunch of tropical systems, including Cat 4 Norman, although none of these is likely to threaten any landmasses - it's been a record month in that area.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/P...orence-Gulf-Mexico-Needs-be-Watched-Next-Week

    [​IMG]
     
  2. PRJoey

    PRJoey Redshirt
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    Thanks
     
  3. Shelby65

    Shelby65 Sophomore
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    why the grudge against the Cape Verde islands ? too many RU fans harbor prolonged hatred of that place. it's been years since the infamous weather events there, more years than it took to make peace with Germany after WWII. Let it go. Time to move on and embrace it for the beautiful place that it is. Its residents are charming.
     
  4. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    They're probably pissed because we keep calling them the Cape Verde Islands instead of their rightful name of Cabo Verde Islands.
     
  5. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    So, Florence is now a TS, but will remain a fish storm, although it could threaten Bermuda in about 5-6 days (as a strong tropical storm).

    More worrisome is PTC #7, which is poised to become tropical storm Gordon, as it emerges into the GOM off the southern tip of Florida. It's forecast to move relatively quickly towards MS/LA, which may be important, as it'll be traveling over very warm waters (85-87F) with light shear, both ingredients for strengthening.

    The fast movement will hopefully prevent Gordon from becoming a hurricane, although it could reach cat 1 status (74 mph) before landfall. Heavy flooding rains are the main threat from Gordon.

    More tropical waves are lining up in Africa, with one just emerging off the coast, which could potentially become the next named system in several days...

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    [​IMG]
     
  6. Mr_Twister

    Mr_Twister All American
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    Expecting some Tropical moisture here in southwest Florida. Predicting gusty 30-40 MPH winds and up to 3 inches of rain in the Naples/Marco Island area. Starting midday.
     
  7. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    Man, Weather Underground redid their site, and it's now less useful and more cumbersome to use. I see they're following the trend of other sites.
     
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  8. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Yep, I have no idea why some sites do that. Kind of like SK.com, which really sucks now. There's this trend towards "lean and sleek" interfaces with non-intuitive icons where it can take 2-4 clicks to get where you want. I prefer sites with tons of info/links (with actual descriptive words) on the home page, so you can get where you want with one click. Or maybe nested menus with dropdowns within dropdowns, which aren't so bad.
     
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  9. RU4Real

    RU4Real Hall of Famer
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    I only really visit Wunderground for the model info, which is pretty much impossible with the latest reformat. So oh well.

    Soon-to-be Gordon is being spoken of in hushed tones among some of the tropical-focused mets I follow (casually). There seems to be a sense that NHC may be understating the potential. Guess we'll see. I'm headed out Wednesday morning for a 2 day drive down to southern GA / northern FL. A coincidental storm would make things... interesante.
     
  10. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    sk.com, man, they jumped the shark with their redesign. One of the stupidest things they did is that they did not remap the old links - they just now end up on a 404 page. Here's an example:

    http://www.scarletknights.com/sports/m-footbl/spec-rel/record-book.html

    Even worse, within their redesigned site, they have dangling links within football which will kick you out to the front screen for all of the sports.
     
  11. RU848789

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    Was actually named Gordon at 8:30 am, while I was playing pickle ball (popular new tennis-like game on a court about half the size of a tennis court with paddles and a heavy wiffle ball with holes in it - popular with the older set) with my sister.

    Have also seen similar chatter about Gordon becoming at least a Cat 1 hurricane, which is why I included that in my earlier post (wasn't in the earlier discussions by the NHC but now is). Would really not want the combo of a stronger storm and the left side of the track envelope, which would be a direct hit on New Orleans. Good luck.

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
     
  12. RU848789

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    New post up from Jeff Masters at Wunderground - he's probably my favorite source for tropical systems. He even mentioned cat 1/2 possibilities at landfall, based on the most aggressive model. This one really needs to be watched closely, as intensity forecasts are still fairly error prone, unlike track forecasts, which have become much much better over the past 10 years, and it's within the realm of possibility that a storm like this could reach cat 2/3 (we've seen that happen with storms not predicted to get beyond cat 1).

    https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Hurricane-Watches-Central-Gulf-Coast-TS-Gordon-Intensifies
     
  13. dconifer

    dconifer Junior
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    So true!
     
  14. RU848789

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    So, Gordon came ashore last night just west of the MS/AL border with 70 mph winds, so it never made it hurricane strength (74 mph) and it has already weakened to a tropical depression. Damage was not extensive from winds or surge, but rainfall is expected to be 5-10", overall, especially to the NE of the storm's center, so flooding will continue to be the major risk.

    The big news, however, is that now hurricane Florence may now end up threatening the US east coast in about 8-10 days and not end up being a fish storm, i.e., it might not recurve near Bermuda towards the NE and out to sea, like most storms in this situation do. Instead, the long range models, including the Euro, the best model for tropical systems, are showing Florence being shunted to the west along the southern periphery of a major high pressure system that will be dominating the weather for the US east coast into the western Atlantic (highs have counterclockwise flow, so the southern periphery of a high will have east to west winds or steering currents for a hurricane).

    It's way too far out to predict a US impact or landfall, as model track errors beyond 5 days get quite large (which is why the NHC only shows a 5-day track prediction), but it's now a possibility, so Florence needs to be watched closely, especially as some of the models show Florence becoming a major hurricane as it nears and possibly makes landfall on the US east coast (anywhere from FL to New England with NC being at greatest risk at this point). Impacts on the NJ/NY/LI area can't be ruled out either. Looking at the ensemble members for the global models (where the model is run with perturbations in the initial/boundary conditions to look at senstivity to these variations), this storm could still end up anywhere from the Caribbean to a fish storm that doesn't come close to the US, but the US east coast is now a possible destination.

    Too early to post maps in my opinion, but if anyone wants to explore the nitty gritty of the model runs with commentary by some excellent professionals, the 33andrain thread is an interesting read. Also, the next tropical wave, which is just SW of the Cape Verde Islands, is likely to become Helene in the next few days and its path is likely to bring it towards the Caribbean eventually in 8-10 days. And there's one more wave emerging off of Africa which could become Isaac.

    https://www.33andrain.com/topic/891-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season/?page=20

    https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
     
  15. Proud NJ Sports Fan

    Proud NJ Sports Fan Heisman Winner
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    Odds are becoming more likely that Florence hits the East Coast.

    This sucks
     
  16. Tango Two

    Tango Two Moderator
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  17. dconifer

    dconifer Junior
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    Dang, I'll buckle up my chin strap here in Atlantic City...
     
  18. Knight Shift

    Knight Shift Hall of Famer
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    Actually, it doesn't suck, it blows.
     
  19. RUtix4me

    RUtix4me All Conference
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    anyone anyone?
     
  20. T2Kplus10

    T2Kplus10 Heisman Winner
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    Good info, appreciate the post!
     
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  21. Knight Shift

    Knight Shift Hall of Famer
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    Worst case scenario for Newfoundland.
     
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  22. FELONIOUSMONK

    FELONIOUSMONK All American
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    Stop pissing yourselves. None of you will die.. Probably...
     
  23. Knight Shift

    Knight Shift Hall of Famer
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    Except Newfoundland, and maybe Nova Scotia.
     
  24. T2Kplus10

    T2Kplus10 Heisman Winner
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    Meh, it's only Canada.
     
  25. ruready4somefootball

    ruready4somefootball All American
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    Is this closer to Numbers or one of his critics?:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:
     
  26. Local Shill

    Local Shill Heisman Winner
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    Way way way to early to use the word “likely.” Stop being an sh&$ stirrer.
     
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  27. RU848789

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    Today's 12Z GFS (just coming out) continues to show the potential for Florence to be shunted west towards the US coast around Day 7 and beyond, but still way too early to predict anything; the Euro, is definitely still the best model for tropical systems it comes out around 2 pm (I'll hopefully be playing poker by then). The 5-day official NHC forecast simply shows Florence heading towards Bermuda and beyond that the error bars are huge, as usual, but with the US east coast now within the error bars, which really wasn't the case 2-3 days ago.

    As a small interesting aside, a few of the model runs have shown Florence heading inland into northern New England, producing a raging snowstorm, especially at higher elevations. Early ski season?
     
  28. Proud NJ Sports Fan

    Proud NJ Sports Fan Heisman Winner
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    No worries, you can bring your own bottled water to go watch it.
     
  29. Proud NJ Sports Fan

    Proud NJ Sports Fan Heisman Winner
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    With hurricanes you never know how much bodily harm or property damage
     
  30. RU848789

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  31. MrsScrew

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    well this might interfere with our flight home from Kansas...
     
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  32. Postman_1

    Postman_1 Freshman
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    Hopefully it misses us completely.
     
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  33. RUScrew85

    RUScrew85 Heisman Winner
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    I was never coming back anyway. :flushed:[jumpingsmile]
     
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  34. Tango Two

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    The tropics look to remain very active in the Atlantic with two more storms likely forming behind Hurricane Florence in the next week.


    [​IMG]
     
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  35. DJ Spanky

    DJ Spanky The Lunatic is in my Head
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    So far it doesn't look very excited to come to the US.
     
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  36. RU848789

    RU848789 Hall of Famer
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    Florence is now a cat 4 storm, defying the intensity forecasts, which have called for weakening. Intensity is so hard to forecast. Track forecasts still all over the place past 5-6 days.
     
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  37. T2Kplus10

    T2Kplus10 Heisman Winner
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    Looks like it just got out of a cold pool.
     
  38. RUHoopsguard

    RUHoopsguard Redshirt
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    Thank you #'s. I thought it was a "fish storm" before reading this thread.
    I hope you will have time early next week to keep all of us posted on your advisories/opinions.
     
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  39. Tango Two

    Tango Two Moderator
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    lol
     
  40. RU#1fan

    RU#1fan Heisman Winner
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    Thanks #s
    Hope the US will be spared.
    Also hope no issues with our trip on 9/13 to Kansas
     
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