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OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

41725362_1968138429896400_4514662140275064832_o.jpg
 
It's a big story, especially compared to a lot of the drivel we see on the local stations.
Well she did add some comic relief on the 12 noon news. While on air her hat flew off and she went running down the road to get it.
 
They can easily cover the story without sending a local reporter. ABC national already has several people down there. The lady 6ABC sent down adds nothing.
I would assume that, like the power companies pulling people from other states, ABC is happy to have reporters from affiliates fill in at different locations.

Of course, I think they should use robotic cameras. We have seen plenty of reporting from people in safe cities showing video from reporters standing there at the shore.. they are not needed except to interview people who should have evacuated... and even then you have people in studios taking calls and doing interviews... let the robot put them on camera and a guy in the studio talk to them.
 
I would assume that, like the power companies pulling people from other states, ABC is happy to have reporters from affiliates fill in at different locations.

Of course, I think they should use robotic cameras. We have seen plenty of reporting from people in safe cities showing video from reporters standing there at the shore.. they are not needed except to interview people who should have evacuated... and even then you have people in studios taking calls and doing interviews... let the robot put them on camera and a guy in the studio talk to them.

latest
 
I would assume that, like the power companies pulling people from other states, ABC is happy to have reporters from affiliates fill in at different locations.

Of course, I think they should use robotic cameras. We have seen plenty of reporting from people in safe cities showing video from reporters standing there at the shore.. they are not needed except to interview people who should have evacuated... and even then you have people in studios taking calls and doing interviews... let the robot put them on camera and a guy in the studio talk to them.
She isn't filling in. She works for a Philly Station and is only on the Philly Station. Besides ABC already has Ginger Zee and 3 other national reporters there.
 
seems relatively calm in the cam unless its not actually live

yeah.. that was old footage....

actually, owner of the platform is doing a Live Stream right now on the channel to answer questions (3pm EST Friday)
 
The 11 am NHC advisory is up and Florence's winds are down to 80 mph as the hurricane has been just over land, moving across Wilmington and is now about 20 miles SW of Wilmington, moving at only 2-3 mph to the SW. Florence is predicted to chug along the NC then SC coast to Myrtle Beach from now through Saturday morning or it could even go back over the ocean a few miles offshore for a bit and then come back ashore around Myrtle Beach.

Either way we'll continue to see major storm surges to the NE of the track and torrential rains for anywhere within 50-100 miles of the NE SC and SE NC coasts for the next 24 hours, as Florence will remain a hurricane for at least the next 12 hours and a strong tropical storm after that. Florence will then speed up a bit and head west towards Columbia SC by Saturday night, Spartanburg, SC by Sunday morning and then NW towards Asheville, NC by Sunday night with winds not being as much of an issue by the time it reaches Spartanburg (will be just a depression by then with winds <40 mph), but 6-12" of rain along and to the NE of that inland track.

41752255_10214654691674996_5083119878152388608_n.jpg

The 5 pm NHC advisory is out and Florence is no longer a hurricane, but is a strong tropical storm with 70 mph and greater gusts. Storm is still moving very slowly near the SC/NC border about halfway between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington, almost back at the coast. Not clear if it'll make it back offshore, but it's still a potent storm. Gotta run, so will just post the NHC forecast here.

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Florence Advisory Number 62
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

...FLORENCE NOW PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN
FLORENCE SOUTH CAROLINA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGES TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC FRESHWATER FLOODING EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND SOUTH CAROLINA...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 78.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM NE OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued south of Myrtle
Beach, South Carolina, and north of Salvo, North Carolina,
including Albemarle Sound.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning has been replaced with a Tropical Storm
Warning from South Santee River, South Carolina to Cape Hatteras,
North Carolina.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued north of Cape
Hatteras, including Albemarle Sound.

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Myrtle Beach South Carolina to Salvo North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound, including the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Edisto Beach South Carolina to Cape Hatteras North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound

Interests elsewhere in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states
should monitor the progress of Florence.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Florence was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 78.6 West. Florence is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-southwestward motion is expected through Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Florence will move farther inland
across extreme southeastern North Carolina this evening, and across
extreme eastern South Carolina tonight and Saturday. Florence will
then move generally northward across the western Carolinas and the
central Appalachian Mountains early next week.

Doppler radar data and surface observations indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected tonight. Significant weakening
is forecast over the weekend and into early next week while Florence
moves farther inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and gust to
to 72 mph (116 km/h) was recently reported at the National Ocean
Service station at Johnny Mercer Pier in Wrightsville Beach.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 972 mb (28.70 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground...

The Neuse, Pamlico, Pungo, and Bay Rivers...8-12 ft
Cape Fear NC to Salvo NC...3-5 ft
Myrtle Beach SC to Cape Fear NC...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Southeastern coastal North Carolina into far northeastern South
Carolina...an additional 20 to 25 inches, with isolated storm totals
of 30 to 40 inches. This rainfall will produce catastrophic flash
flooding and prolonged significant river flooding.

Remainder of South Carolina and North Carolina into southwest
Virginia...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. This rainfall will
produce life-threatening flash flooding.

Rainfall totals exceeding 16 inches thus far have been reported at
several locations across southeastern North Carolina.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue through Saturday
morning in portions of the warning area along the coast and also
over large portions of eastern North Carolina and extreme eastern
South Carolina, with tropical storm force wind gusts spreading well
inland.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible in eastern North Carolina
through tonight, mainly near southeast coastal areas after dark.

SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda, portions
of the U.S. East Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

41729970_10214656696165107_7879951187728924672_n.jpg


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5-day precip from WPC, which includes rains from when Florence is not named, i.e., more in the NE US. Could be a few inches in the NJ area on Tues/Weds or even a bit more, depending on the track of the remnants of Florence.

41744443_10214656718965677_4739261205841969152_n.jpg
 
I know I've been saying it for days, but the worst case scenario for rainfall and flooding is unfolding. With 20-40" over the coast and 20-50 miles inland in SE NC and NE SC by the time this is over, plus 5-15" 50+ miles inland of there, which all has to eventually drain to the NC coast via the network of streams and rivers, we're likely looking at a 500-1000 year flood for large parts of coastal to somewhat inland NC (and probably SC). Biblical flooding is possible if the forecast verifies over the next 36-48 hours. I don't think people really know how bad this is going to be. I hope I'm wrong. Say a prayer...

Repeating the graphic Tango had - it's very scary...

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg
 
Not that there isn't serious danger involved with parts of this storm, but it's funny to see The Weather Channel busted again for their sensationalism.

 
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Very reminiscent of this little gem.

That classic is getting a lot of airplay today.

The best part (besides the guys strolling in the background) of the new TWC one is that he has no idea that his own channel is selling him out by showing a graphic that sustained winds are only 29MPH (gusts to 48) while he is acting like the winds are twice that.
 
I know I've been saying it for days, but the worst case scenario for rainfall and flooding is unfolding. With 20-40" over the coast and 20-50 miles inland in SE NC and NE SC by the time this is over, plus 5-15" 50+ miles inland of there, which all has to eventually drain to the NC coast via the network of streams and rivers, we're likely looking at a 500-1000 year flood for large parts of coastal to somewhat inland NC (and probably SC). Biblical flooding is possible if the forecast verifies over the next 36-48 hours. I don't think people really know how bad this is going to be. I hope I'm wrong. Say a prayer...

Repeating the graphic Tango had - it's very scary...

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg

Please keep us all as informed as you can about the progress of this deadly storm. (But it's OK to take off to watch us beat Kansas tomorrow!)
 
I know I've been saying it for days, but the worst case scenario for rainfall and flooding is unfolding. With 20-40" over the coast and 20-50 miles inland in SE NC and NE SC by the time this is over, plus 5-15" 50+ miles inland of there, which all has to eventually drain to the NC coast via the network of streams and rivers, we're likely looking at a 500-1000 year flood for large parts of coastal to somewhat inland NC (and probably SC). Biblical flooding is possible if the forecast verifies over the next 36-48 hours. I don't think people really know how bad this is going to be. I hope I'm wrong. Say a prayer...

Repeating the graphic Tango had - it's very scary...

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg
Can we stop with the tired and played out worse can scenario and blaming flood for damaging everything. That ship sailed a long time ago.
 
I know I've been saying it for days, but the worst case scenario for rainfall and flooding is unfolding. With 20-40" over the coast and 20-50 miles inland in SE NC and NE SC by the time this is over, plus 5-15" 50+ miles inland of there, which all has to eventually drain to the NC coast via the network of streams and rivers, we're likely looking at a 500-1000 year flood for large parts of coastal to somewhat inland NC (and probably SC). Biblical flooding is possible if the forecast verifies over the next 36-48 hours. I don't think people really know how bad this is going to be. I hope I'm wrong. Say a prayer...

Repeating the graphic Tango had - it's very scary...

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg

There has already been up to 23" of rain in Morehead City, which is nearing the NC all-time rainfall of 24", which is almost certainly going to fall. Easily. With the storm only moving 3 mph, it's just going to keep raining. Here's the latest mesoscale discussion and associated graphic from the WPC. As I said above, this is an unfolding 500-1000 year flooding situation for large swaths of NE SC and coastal/inland NC SE of Cape Hatteras, as per the area in blue in the WPC graphic, below. Like I said, I'll say a prayer. And I'm an atheist. Seriously.

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0837&amp;yr=2018

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142020Z - 150220Z

Summary...Florence is producing heavy rain west of its center and
within a stalled inflow band in southeast NC. Hourly rain totals
to 3" with local amounts to 7" are expected, which could bring
storm total amounts to 24" locally by 02z/10 p.m. EDT.

Discussion...Radar imagery shows Florence meandering westward at 6
mph towards the eastern SC/NC border, with an increasingly diffuse
center. Heavy rain continues west of the center across southern
Columbus County and continues in a stalled band across Carteret,
Craven, and southern Pimplico Counties. The Morehead City
Office/MHX reported 19.4" of rain as of 4 p.m./20z. Precipitable
water values of 2.6" were noted in the 18z sounding from Morehead
City NC/MHX. Inflow at 850 hPa is 60-70 kts per VAD wind profile
and the recent sounding. Effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts exists
here, which when combined with the deep unidirectional cyclonic
flow has organized the rain bands in its eastern periphery. ML
CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg near the persistent band.

The 12z HREF probabilities of 1"+ an hour indicate some westward
drift to the inflow band is expected with time, though the
guidance has definite spread with how quickly it retrogrades.
There have been some hints of this on recent radar imagery and ML
CAPE trends. Hourly rain totals to 3" remain possible in this
environment, which were occasionally achieved over the past six
hours. While the mesoscale guidance is not unified in their
solutions for Florence's inflow band, they do indicate local
amounts in the 4-7" are possible over the next several hours.
This would compound existing flooding/flash flooding across
southeast NC and further saturate soils in northeast SC and
central NC with time. Catastrophic flash flooding remains in the
cards for the NC coast southeast of the Outer Banks.
 
Last edited:
There has already been up to 23" of rain in Morehead City, which is nearing the NC all-time rainfall of 27", which is almost certainly going to fall. Easily. With the storm only moving 3 mph, it's just going to keep raining. Here's the latest mesoscale discussion and associated graphic from the WPC. As I said above, this is an unfolding 500-1000 year flooding situation for large swaths of NE SC and coastal/inland NC SE of Cape Hatteras, as per the area in blue in the WPC graphic, below. Like I said, I'll say a prayer. And I'm an atheist. Seriously.

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0837&amp;yr=2018

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142020Z - 150220Z

Summary...Florence is producing heavy rain west of its center and
within a stalled inflow band in southeast NC. Hourly rain totals
to 3" with local amounts to 7" are expected, which could bring
storm total amounts to 24" locally by 02z/10 p.m. EDT.

Discussion...Radar imagery shows Florence meandering westward at 6
mph towards the eastern SC/NC border, with an increasingly diffuse
center. Heavy rain continues west of the center across southern
Columbus County and continues in a stalled band across Carteret,
Craven, and southern Pimplico Counties. The Morehead City
Office/MHX reported 19.4" of rain as of 4 p.m./20z. Precipitable
water values of 2.6" were noted in the 18z sounding from Morehead
City NC/MHX. Inflow at 850 hPa is 60-70 kts per VAD wind profile
and the recent sounding. Effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts exists
here, which when combined with the deep unidirectional cyclonic
flow has organized the rain bands in its eastern periphery. ML
CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg near the persistent band.

The 12z HREF probabilities of 1"+ an hour indicate some westward
drift to the inflow band is expected with time, though the
guidance has definite spread with how quickly it retrogrades.
There have been some hints of this on recent radar imagery and ML
CAPE trends. Hourly rain totals to 3" remain possible in this
environment, which were occasionally achieved over the past six
hours. While the mesoscale guidance is not unified in their
solutions for Florence's inflow band, they do indicate local
amounts in the 4-7" are possible over the next several hours.
This would compound existing flooding/flash flooding across
southeast NC and further saturate soils in northeast SC and
central NC with time. Catastrophic flash flooding remains in the
cards for the NC coast southeast of the Outer Banks.
23" in Morehead City. Not surprising.
 
23" in Morehead City. Not surprising.

Reminds me of my favorite Sam Kinison joke, which he told back in the early 80s at Catch A Rising Star, when he was not well known yet (I used to go there fairly regularly back then). It went something like this: "Moosehead...yeah, I think I like that beer (leering) - you know sit back, relaaaaaaax, put an ankle up on each antler..." Still cracks me up.
 
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Talk about old.. is that pre-vinyl? I hardly think mentioning this twice is a "broken record?.

You made your point clear.. you like to go sit through hurricanes and don't mind reporters playing glory hounds to go stand outside in them for the viewers as networks compete to show their people in more dangerous situations than the other networks... even as the anchors back in the studio tell them to "be safe".
 
That classic is getting a lot of airplay today.

The best part (besides the guys strolling in the background) of the new TWC one is that he has no idea that his own channel is selling him out by showing a graphic that sustained winds are only 29MPH (gusts to 48) while he is acting like the winds are twice that.
Is this real? If so, I lost a lot of respect for Mike Seidel and the weather channel. I always respected Seidel but to somewhat fake the extent of a nasty storm is not needed. Gee
 
I wasn't calling you out; I was just assuming that because you posted in the thread, you had been reading it. Sorry for my error. But I think my central point is right; that 6 ABC is covering the storm because people in this area are interested in it. That's also why the major media are covering it; just look at the national news if you want an example.

I think if you can acknowledge, but compartmentalize the inevitable suffering, you can still be in awe of the overwhelming and fascinating power of these types of events.
 
Is this real? If so, I lost a lot of respect for Mike Seidel and the weather channel. I always respected Seidel but to somewhat fake the extent of a nasty storm is not needed. Gee
I doubt he faked it. Those were easily 50 mph gusts in that shot (you can tell by the trees/bushes) and all he said was "60 mph gusts" and the graphic said 29 mph sustained and 48 mph gusts and that's likely the current observation in Myrtle Beach at the time, which could easily be much different where he was. And it's also possible that he was in a bit of a wind tunnel, while the kids were not. He didn't look like he was faking being pushed (and even 29/48 mph will push you a bit). He's also covered 70+ tropical systems and I doubt he'd fake anything - he's always been one of the most fearless guys they have.
 
There has already been up to 23" of rain in Morehead City, which is nearing the NC all-time rainfall of 24", which is almost certainly going to fall. Easily. With the storm only moving 3 mph, it's just going to keep raining. Here's the latest mesoscale discussion and associated graphic from the WPC. As I said above, this is an unfolding 500-1000 year flooding situation for large swaths of NE SC and coastal/inland NC SE of Cape Hatteras, as per the area in blue in the WPC graphic, below. Like I said, I'll say a prayer. And I'm an atheist. Seriously.

41790376_10214656781367237_5244777370522484736_n.jpg




https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0837&amp;yr=2018

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0837
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
422 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 142020Z - 150220Z

Summary...Florence is producing heavy rain west of its center and
within a stalled inflow band in southeast NC. Hourly rain totals
to 3" with local amounts to 7" are expected, which could bring
storm total amounts to 24" locally by 02z/10 p.m. EDT.

Discussion...Radar imagery shows Florence meandering westward at 6
mph towards the eastern SC/NC border, with an increasingly diffuse
center. Heavy rain continues west of the center across southern
Columbus County and continues in a stalled band across Carteret,
Craven, and southern Pimplico Counties. The Morehead City
Office/MHX reported 19.4" of rain as of 4 p.m./20z. Precipitable
water values of 2.6" were noted in the 18z sounding from Morehead
City NC/MHX. Inflow at 850 hPa is 60-70 kts per VAD wind profile
and the recent sounding. Effective bulk shear of 30-45 kts exists
here, which when combined with the deep unidirectional cyclonic
flow has organized the rain bands in its eastern periphery. ML
CAPE of 500-1500 J/kg near the persistent band.

The 12z HREF probabilities of 1"+ an hour indicate some westward
drift to the inflow band is expected with time, though the
guidance has definite spread with how quickly it retrogrades.
There have been some hints of this on recent radar imagery and ML
CAPE trends. Hourly rain totals to 3" remain possible in this
environment, which were occasionally achieved over the past six
hours. While the mesoscale guidance is not unified in their
solutions for Florence's inflow band, they do indicate local
amounts in the 4-7" are possible over the next several hours.
This would compound existing flooding/flash flooding across
southeast NC and further saturate soils in northeast SC and
central NC with time. Catastrophic flash flooding remains in the
cards for the NC coast southeast of the Outer Banks.

The hits keep coming with the torrential rains in these bands pinwheeling around Florence, which is located about 20 miles WNW of Myrtle Beach and is still at 65 mph and moving quite slowly (4-5 mph) to the WSW. See the latest WPC mesoscale discussion about the rainfall threat in the link below and the graphic. Expecting at least another 6-9" in areas that have already received 10-20" (mostly within the blue area in the graphic). Not good.

41900428_10214658366046853_2433592898718007296_n.jpg


And the latest NHC track...

41818782_10214658383047278_5820349236394328064_n.jpg
 
11 pm advisory is out. Finally, the 5-day track shows a landfall, right on Wilmington, NC, Thursday evening, as a 130 mph storm, after reaching 145 mph the day before. This track is nearly identical to the 5 pm NHC track. Still not clear what happens beyond landfall, however; will wait until after the upcoming 00Z model runs to discuss those wide ranging possibilities.

41286804_10214619895925124_4971595258400866304_n.jpg

A wee bit impressive by the NHC. 5 days out and the error on landfall location was 2 miles. Amazing really, if a little bit lucky; see the blog post below. They did reasonably well on intensity until the last day or so before landfall, when the global and hurricane models were showing strengthening and Florence weakened, largely due to unpredicted shear at 250 mbar, disrupting the core. Just imagine if Florence had made landfall with 130 mph winds (and similar rainfall) instead of 90 mph winds - wind and surge damage would've been much worse (if less widespread perhaps, as Florence did expand her windfield).

When it comes to hurricane track forecasts, the one that the National Hurricane Center issued for Hurricane Florence at 11 p.m. on September 8 may go down in history as the most accurate 5-day forecast they've ever issued — just 2 miles off target in the center of the "cone of uncertainty."

Why it matters: The average 5-day error is closer to 250 miles, to put that in perspective. The forecast provided residents of the Carolinas with 5 days of lead time to prepare for the storm, and alerted governors and emergency managers to start moving assets into position to respond to the storm.

Between the lines: Statistically, hurricane track forecasts have been steadily improving over time as more powerful computer models come online and hurricane forecasters utilize their research aircraft and other tools to determine where a storm is most likely to go. In the case of Hurricane Florence, even though the storm took a track unlike any other such storm in history, the NHC still accurately forecast it.

Yes, but: The fact that this prediction was off by just 2 miles doesn't mean that future track forecasts should be taken as gospel. Two-thirds of the time, the NHC's 5-day forecast for a hurricane's track is 198 nautical miles, or 227 miles, off target.

The bottom line: Hurricane Florence's forecast was a major success story that isn't likely to be replicated with every subsequent storm. However, the trend in track errors is downward with each passing year, so someday, perhaps every storm will be forecast this accurately.

https://www.axios.com/forecasters-p...les-141bc66a-0044-46c3-ba61-6b1e8dd6d00f.html
 
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Another classic and totally called out by some one who himself would be totally called out...

This time locally in Wayne NJ.

Sorry realize it was posted earlier...but I guess if they can do that with the maps we can do it with the videos...

No more updates? I guess the storm is over....
 
Is this real? If so, I lost a lot of respect for Mike Seidel and the weather channel. I always respected Seidel but to somewhat fake the extent of a nasty storm is not needed. Gee
When the Weather Channel first started they gave you the straight story on the weather. They must have realized at some point years ago that not enough people tune to a channel devoted to the weather just to be told things are fine. They overhype everything, with the best recent example being their unilateral move in 2012 to give winter storms names.
 
The hits keep coming with the torrential rains in these bands pinwheeling around Florence, which is located about 20 miles WNW of Myrtle Beach and is still at 65 mph and moving quite slowly (4-5 mph) to the WSW. See the latest WPC mesoscale discussion about the rainfall threat in the link below and the graphic. Expecting at least another 6-9" in areas that have already received 10-20" (mostly within the blue area in the graphic). Not good.

41900428_10214658366046853_2433592898718007296_n.jpg


And the latest NHC track...

41818782_10214658383047278_5820349236394328064_n.jpg

Catastrophic, life-threatening rainfall and flooding continue in a wide area in SE NC as per the latest mesoscale WPC rainfall and flooding discussion, below, as torrential rains continue for large areas in coastal/inland NC, SE of Cape Hatteras, as well as parts of NE SC (as per the graphic below), near where Florence currently is, about 35 W of Myrtle Beach with 50 mph winds, moving slowly westward at this time at only 2-3 mph. While the max winds are well down, tropical storm force winds and gusts still extend 175 miles from the center of circulation, showing that Florence is still a very powerful storm. Close to a million people in SC/NC are without power and this number will go up significantly.

The absolute worst flooding, currently, is for the locations in NC inside the blue bubble in the graphic below - these areas are all under flash flood emergencies from the NWS, which is the most dire wording they can use, i.e., do not travel unless evacuating (more dire than flash flood warnings). And given the rains to come, the flooding in various area wide river networks in NC and NE SC will continue to get worse over the next 2 days as everything drains towards the ocean. River flooding is supposed to be as bad or worse than it was for Matthew, which was catastrophic for many rivers. As per the NC Governor, "Our predictions show that the Lumber and Cape Fear rivers will crest significantly higher than they did with Hurricane Matthew."

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-14-hurricane-florence-north-carolina-impacts

10-15" more rain is expected, in areas that have already received 10-20" of rain (locally up to 24") and widespread 6-10" and 10-15" amounts are expected in large parts of inland NE SC and inland NC today and tomorrow, as Florence starts to move to the W towards Columbia SC by tomorrow morning, and then more quickly to the NW towards Asheville, NC by Monday morning. I've included graphics for the updated track and rainfall amounts further down below.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0842
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
504 AM EDT Sat Sep 15 2018

Areas affected...south-central to eastern NC into eastern SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 150902Z - 151500Z

Summary...An additional 6-10 inches of rain is expected to
exacerbate ongoing catastrophic flooding/flash flooding across
portions of southeastern NC. Additional flash flooding will remain
possible for locations across eastern SC and far eastern NC given
saturated soils.

Discussion...Regional radar loops of reflectivity since 03Z has
shown the merging of 2 rain bands located east of the center of
Tropical Storm Florence into a single band which entered coastal
NC along western Onslow county. Estimated rainfall rates within
this band continue to be 2-3 in/hr per KMHX dual-pol estimates. A
6 hour precipitation observation from a RAWS site northeast of
Jacksonville reported 8.08 inches ending 08Z with radar-derived
QPE within a 1/2 inch of this total. However, the RAWS site was
not within the radar-derived QPE max, with the QPE max located
along the Onslow/Jones county border which ranged between 10-13
inches ending 08Z. These amounts appear reasonable given the slow
movement of the heavy rainfall axis observed overnight.

Florence continues a westward motion across eastern SC near 5 mph,
a slight increase in forward speed compared to during the day on
Friday. This motion is expected to continue over the next 6 hours
via the 09Z NHC forecast advisory and recent hi-res output that is
handling Florence's speed well so far (00Z nam_nest). The
integrity of the rain band is not expected to change much over the
next few hours given availability of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE just
offshore of the NC coast combined with 50-60 kt of southerly 850
mb winds providing extreme moisture transport across the
southeastern NC coastline. A slight westward drift to the rain
band is expected over the next 3-6 hours which would allow an
additional 6-10 inches of rain to impact portions of southeastern
NC from just east of Cape Fear to Sneads Ferry and locations
75-100 miles inland. Numerous reports of flooded and washed out
roads have been seen across this region already. Dangerous,
life-threatening flash flooding is expected to continue into the
late morning hours.

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And below are the latest WPC rainfall forecast for the next 3 days and the updated track forecast from the NHC. Obviously there is still lots of rain to come. Also, it' not shown here, but the Philly-NYC corridor might get a few inches of rain on Tues/Weds as the remnants of Florence move quickly NE to our NW.

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When the Weather Channel first started they gave you the straight story on the weather. They must have realized at some point years ago that not enough people tune to a channel devoted to the weather just to be told things are fine. They overhype everything, with the best recent example being their unilateral move in 2012 to give winter storms names.

While I can't stand the hubris of TWC in naming winter storms, TWC has improved immensely over the past several years, with top-notch meteorological talent in the various expert areas and much better explanations, graphics, reporting, etc., including real discussion of things like model runs, ensemble forecasting, uncertainty, etc. - you know, meteorology. Their biggest coup, in the recent past, was probably their call that the Jan-15 blizzard was going to underperform significantly vs. what the NWS and most other forecasters were saying and they ended up being right. They're been doing an awesome job with Florence - having Rick Knabb, former NHC director, on staff certainly hasn't hurt.

I'm not saying they're not prone to some hyping, like most TV sources these days (there's always something "breaking" and some of the headlines are overdone), but the quality of the meteorological discussions and forecasts has gotten much better. And I know the video looks bad, but it's possible Seidel was in a bit of a wind tunnel, as it really looks like he's feeling some 40-50 mph gusts, IMO. I'd expect ham out of Cantore, but not Seidel, as he's never been known to hype stuff - I could be wrong of course.
 
While I can't stand the hubris of TWC in naming winter storms, TWC has improved immensely over the past several years, with top-notch meteorological talent in the various expert areas and much better explanations, graphics, reporting, etc., including real discussion of things like model runs, ensemble forecasting, uncertainty, etc. - you know, meteorology. Their biggest coup, in the recent past, was probably their call that the Jan-15 blizzard was going to underperform significantly vs. what the NWS and most other forecasters were saying and they ended up being right. They're been doing an awesome job with Florence - having Rick Knabb, former NHC director, on staff certainly hasn't hurt.

I'm not saying they're not prone to some hyping, like most TV sources these days (there's always something "breaking" and some of the headlines are overdone), but the quality of the meteorological discussions and forecasts has gotten much better. And I know the video looks bad, but it's possible Seidel was in a bit of a wind tunnel, as it really looks like he's feeling some 40-50 mph gusts, IMO. I'd expect ham out of Cantore, but not Seidel, as he's never been known to hype stuff - I could be wrong of course.
What seems to show you are giving Seidel too much credit is his constant shifting as if he is being buffeted by sustained strong winds, not the gusts you are talking about.
 
The story is the storm and not the coverage of the storm and one poster on one board for years, has done more and a better job to keep us informed of these weather events than the major networks.

We live in age of 24-7 news cycles where the game is who came out first with a story and who can do the best job holding the viewers (in many cases limited attention span).

It simply is what it is.
 
A new all-time single storm record for NC was just set with Swansboro, NC (about halfway between Morehead City and Jacksonville, NC) recording 30.6" of rain so far in the storm, eclipsing the old record of 24.1" set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. And they expect another ~10" of rain. This was a CoCoRahs (human) report, so hopefully it's correct (radar history indicates it's in the ballpark).
 
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