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OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

Lost power here in Greenville-Spartanburg. Rain has yet to arrive, but the winds arrived last night and are continuing to cause outages everywhere. Looks like I will have to hear about the game via the game thread.
 
The people I know in New Bern ended up being okay where they were. No flooding even got power back last night. The rest of the town on the other hand looks a mess.
 
I've been thru Swansboro many times - can't imagine coping with that amount of rain. Will be curious to find out how Emerald Isle made out in the storm.
 
Apparently some rivers won't crest for another couple of days, so some places haven't even seen the worst of the flooding yet.
 
Well, after watching that first half, it just seems natural that I should come back to the misery that Florence is inflicting (real misery). Florence continues to move slowly W and is bringing torrential rains still. No changes in the forecast since this morning.

On the plus side, at least 95L petered out and will not become a TS near TX/LA and Isaac fell apart in the Caribbean after hitting the Lesser Antilles (not that impactful). No immediate threats now in the tropics - not counting the two fish storms way out in the Atlantic (Joyce and Helene).
 
A new all-time single storm record for NC was just set with Swansboro, NC (about halfway between Morehead City and Jacksonville, NC) recording 30.6" of rain so far in the storm, eclipsing the old record of 24.1" set during Hurricane Floyd in 1999. And they expect another ~10" of rain. This was a CoCoRahs (human) report, so hopefully it's correct (radar history indicates it's in the ballpark).

Storm rainfall totals so far. And 10-15" still to come for many areas in NE SC and SE NC, where 10-25" have already fallen and 5-10" more to come for central and western sections of NC (and SW VA). This ain't over, especially with regard to stream and river flooding, which will almost certainly be record-breaking for several river networks.

41787151_10214663527255880_7675712375974002688_o.jpg
 
Drove west out of Boone this morning, headed north up I-81 then east on I-64 to Waynesboro, VA. Making a big arc around Flo. Heading east tomorrow am then dropping down south into Durham or Raleigh, then on to Pinehurst.

Widespread power outages in Moore County. Lots of trees down. Heavy rain continuing thru Sun afternoon. Power may not recover until Mon-Tues.

Boone is preparing for heavy rains and flooding thru Monday. App State's shut down until Wed. Wind gusts up to 55 mph expected on Rich Mountain, above the town.
 
Storm rainfall totals so far. And 10-15" still to come for many areas in NE SC and SE NC, where 10-25" have already fallen and 5-10" more to come for central and western sections of NC (and SW VA). This ain't over, especially with regard to stream and river flooding, which will almost certainly be record-breaking for several river networks.

41787151_10214663527255880_7675712375974002688_o.jpg

As of 8 pm, Florence is still a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, but as I've been saying the winds are not the story, the rains are, as well as the resulting ongoing and coming life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and stream/river flooding. Florence is about 60 miles W of Myrtle Beach and has been crawling at 2-3 mph all day (walking speed) and will continue its slow movement to Columbia, SC by tomorrow morning and then should accelerate a bit reaching Greenville, SC by Sunday afternoon and then will finally accelerate further, reaching western WV by Monday afternoon, before passing by just to the N of NYC on Tuesday afternoon.

The story is still the torrential rainfall in NE SC and large swaths of SE NC from the coast to well inland, where 15-25" (or more) have fallen and another 10-15" could fall. And then 6-10" (and locally up to 15") of rain is likely to fall tonight and tomorrow in much of NE SC, central and western NC and even SW VA. And all of this rain eventually drains through the streams and rivers of NC and NE SC to the ocean and most of these are eventually forecast to reach major flood stage, with many likely reaching all-time record flood levels by Monday/Tuesday. Catastrophic flooding will not end with the end of the rainfall.

With regard to rainfall still to come, below is the mesoscale graphic from the WPC covering the next 6-12 hours. Clearly, extreme flash flooding is expected to continue in the area in red and major flash flooding is expected in the area in purple.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCPAT1+shtml/151752.shtml?

41806128_10214663820423209_7559364147171819520_n.jpg


Here is a graphic showing the rain still to come, from the NHC. Still some very large amounts across NE SC and coastal/SE NC, as well as inland starting tonight into tomorrow.

41790445_10214663827743392_2029077769085779968_n.jpg


And finally, here are two examples of what is expected with regard to flooding. First, is the graphic for the Lumber River in Lumberton, which suffered catastrophic flooding in 2016 after hurricane Matthew. That storm set the all-time record flood level of 24.0' and that river is now forecast to reach 24.7', which would be even worse than seen for Matthew. That also means that the flooding will likely close I-95 in both directions, as occurred during Matthew. Just imagine I-95 being closed and what that means to travel and commerce.

Second is the graphic for the Cape Fear River, which is predicted to crest early next week at 25.2', about 40 miles N of Wilmington, NC, well above the 23.5' all-time record and 12 feet above flood stage. That's catastrophic flooding that will kill people who don't evacuate to high ground in that area. The same is going to be true for many of these rivers at many points from well inland to the coast.

This link allows one to click on all of these rivers to see the predicted level of flooding expected for each.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

41859335_10214663990467460_9107818518736273408_n.jpg



41880600_10214663879064675_4958799666062819328_n.jpg


Lastly, here's the updated track, which is becoming less important now. Eventually, we should expect to see a windy, rainy day in the NJ area on Tuesday with a few inches of rain being possible. Normally, this would be a non-issue, but some flooding is possible, given antecedent saturated conditions.

41889669_10214663882144752_5549698066895863808_n.jpg
 
Drove west out of Boone this morning, headed north up I-81 then east on I-64 to Waynesboro, VA. Making a big arc around Flo. Heading east tomorrow am then dropping down south into Durham or Raleigh, then on to Pinehurst.

Widespread power outages in Moore County. Lots of trees down. Heavy rain continuing thru Sun afternoon. Power may not recover until Mon-Tues.

Boone is preparing for heavy rains and flooding thru Monday. App State's shut down until Wed. Wind gusts up to 55 mph expected on Rich Mountain, above the town.
Good Luck!
 
As of 8 pm, Florence is still a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, but as I've been saying the winds are not the story, the rains are, as well as the resulting ongoing and coming life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and stream/river flooding. Florence is about 60 miles W of Myrtle Beach and has been crawling at 2-3 mph all day (walking speed) and will continue its slow movement to Columbia, SC by tomorrow morning and then should accelerate a bit reaching Greenville, SC by Sunday afternoon and then will finally accelerate further, reaching western WV by Monday afternoon, before passing by just to the N of NYC on Tuesday afternoon.

The story is still the torrential rainfall in NE SC and large swaths of SE NC from the coast to well inland, where 15-25" (or more) have fallen and another 10-15" could fall. And then 6-10" (and locally up to 15") of rain is likely to fall tonight and tomorrow in much of NE SC, central and western NC and even SW VA. And all of this rain eventually drains through the streams and rivers of NC and NE SC to the ocean and most of these are eventually forecast to reach major flood stage, with many likely reaching all-time record flood levels by Monday/Tuesday. Catastrophic flooding will not end with the end of the rainfall.

With regard to rainfall still to come, below is the mesoscale graphic from the WPC covering the next 6-12 hours. Clearly, extreme flash flooding is expected to continue in the area in red and major flash flooding is expected in the area in purple.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCPAT1+shtml/151752.shtml?

41806128_10214663820423209_7559364147171819520_n.jpg


Here is a graphic showing the rain still to come, from the NHC. Still some very large amounts across NE SC and coastal/SE NC, as well as inland starting tonight into tomorrow.

41790445_10214663827743392_2029077769085779968_n.jpg


And finally, here are two examples of what is expected with regard to flooding. First, is the graphic for the Lumber River in Lumberton, which suffered catastrophic flooding in 2016 after hurricane Matthew. That storm set the all-time record flood level of 24.0' and that river is now forecast to reach 24.7', which would be even worse than seen for Matthew. That also means that the flooding will likely close I-95 in both directions, as occurred during Matthew. Just imagine I-95 being closed and what that means to travel and commerce.

Second is the graphic for the Cape Fear River, which is predicted to crest early next week at 25.2', about 40 miles N of Wilmington, NC, well above the 23.5' all-time record and 12 feet above flood stage. That's catastrophic flooding that will kill people who don't evacuate to high ground in that area. The same is going to be true for many of these rivers at many points from well inland to the coast.

This link allows one to click on all of these rivers to see the predicted level of flooding expected for each.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

41859335_10214663990467460_9107818518736273408_n.jpg



41880600_10214663879064675_4958799666062819328_n.jpg


Lastly, here's the updated track, which is becoming less important now. Eventually, we should expect to see a windy, rainy day in the NJ area on Tuesday with a few inches of rain being possible. Normally, this would be a non-issue, but some flooding is possible, given antecedent saturated conditions.

41889669_10214663882144752_5549698066895863808_n.jpg

You've been giving us the best coverage I've seen anywhere of the storm. Please continue to do that so long as the storm is causing severe effects, which it clearly still is. And given how much rain NJ has had, I think we need to keep an eye on the wheel the storm will be making inland. As you say, even 2-3 inches of rain could be a problem.
 
Drove west out of Boone this morning, headed north up I-81 then east on I-64 to Waynesboro, VA. Making a big arc around Flo. Heading east tomorrow am then dropping down south into Durham or Raleigh, then on to Pinehurst.

Widespread power outages in Moore County. Lots of trees down. Heavy rain continuing thru Sun afternoon. Power may not recover until Mon-Tues.

Boone is preparing for heavy rains and flooding thru Monday. App State's shut down until Wed. Wind gusts up to 55 mph expected on Rich Mountain, above the town.

Was hoping you'd take the VA route - far safer, although it's still going to be pretty damn rainy in Waynesboro on Sunday into Monday with 2-4", but likely only minor flooding. And don't try to get back to Pinehurst until at least late Sunday, as they'll be getting 6-10" through late Sunday into early Monday (and Raleigh will be getting 3-6").
 
You've been giving us the best coverage I've seen anywhere of the storm. Please continue to do that so long as the storm is causing severe effects, which it clearly still is. And given how much rain NJ has had, I think we need to keep an eye on the wheel the storm will be making inland. As you say, even 2-3 inches of rain could be a problem.

Thanks, that's really nice of you to say. I enjoy doing this, but it is a fair amount of work, especially because I share the same info here, on the other site, on Facebook, via an email list for friends/family and an internal email list at work' plus I post on 2 weather boards (not the comprehensive info I post here, as that would be spam there, especially since most posters there are up on this stuff). It's not all identical, but it's similar - and really annoying sometimes when I make a mistake or forget to cut/paste something. Been seriously thinking of starting a separate FB page or blog that I could just link to here to avoid/reduce duplicate efforts - the barrier to that is that I'm not that tech savvy. We'll see...
 
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Thanks, that's really nice of you to say. I enjoy doing this, but it is a fair amount of work, especially because I share the same info here, on the other site, on Facebook, via an email list for friends/family and an internal email list at work' plus I post on 2 weather boards (not the comprehensive info I post here, as that would be spam there, especially since most posters there are up on this stuff). It's not all identical, but it's similar - and really annoying sometimes when I make a mistake or forget to cut/paste something. Been seriously thinking of starting a separate FB page or blog that I could just link to here to avoid/reduce duplicate efforts - the barrier to that is that I'm not that tech savvy. We'll see...

I know this is work, and that is why I feel I should encourage you to keep posting. If you ever develop a blog or FB page, that would be great; it seems to me that would mean you wouldn't have to encounter trolls as much.I must say, though, that this thread has been reasonably troll-free.
 
Lost power here in Greenville-Spartanburg. Rain has yet to arrive, but the winds arrived last night and are continuing to cause outages everywhere. Looks like I will have to hear about the game via the game thread.
you were lucky not to watch
 
As of 8 pm, Florence is still a tropical storm with 45 mph winds, but as I've been saying the winds are not the story, the rains are, as well as the resulting ongoing and coming life-threatening and catastrophic flash flooding and stream/river flooding. Florence is about 60 miles W of Myrtle Beach and has been crawling at 2-3 mph all day (walking speed) and will continue its slow movement to Columbia, SC by tomorrow morning and then should accelerate a bit reaching Greenville, SC by Sunday afternoon and then will finally accelerate further, reaching western WV by Monday afternoon, before passing by just to the N of NYC on Tuesday afternoon.

The story is still the torrential rainfall in NE SC and large swaths of SE NC from the coast to well inland, where 15-25" (or more) have fallen and another 10-15" could fall. And then 6-10" (and locally up to 15") of rain is likely to fall tonight and tomorrow in much of NE SC, central and western NC and even SW VA. And all of this rain eventually drains through the streams and rivers of NC and NE SC to the ocean and most of these are eventually forecast to reach major flood stage, with many likely reaching all-time record flood levels by Monday/Tuesday. Catastrophic flooding will not end with the end of the rainfall.

With regard to rainfall still to come, below is the mesoscale graphic from the WPC covering the next 6-12 hours. Clearly, extreme flash flooding is expected to continue in the area in red and major flash flooding is expected in the area in purple.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/…/ref…/MIATCPAT1+shtml/151752.shtml?

41806128_10214663820423209_7559364147171819520_n.jpg


Here is a graphic showing the rain still to come, from the NHC. Still some very large amounts across NE SC and coastal/SE NC, as well as inland starting tonight into tomorrow.

41790445_10214663827743392_2029077769085779968_n.jpg


And finally, here are two examples of what is expected with regard to flooding. First, is the graphic for the Lumber River in Lumberton, which suffered catastrophic flooding in 2016 after hurricane Matthew. That storm set the all-time record flood level of 24.0' and that river is now forecast to reach 24.7', which would be even worse than seen for Matthew. That also means that the flooding will likely close I-95 in both directions, as occurred during Matthew. Just imagine I-95 being closed and what that means to travel and commerce.

Second is the graphic for the Cape Fear River, which is predicted to crest early next week at 25.2', about 40 miles N of Wilmington, NC, well above the 23.5' all-time record and 12 feet above flood stage. That's catastrophic flooding that will kill people who don't evacuate to high ground in that area. The same is going to be true for many of these rivers at many points from well inland to the coast.

This link allows one to click on all of these rivers to see the predicted level of flooding expected for each.
https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

41859335_10214663990467460_9107818518736273408_n.jpg



41880600_10214663879064675_4958799666062819328_n.jpg


Lastly, here's the updated track, which is becoming less important now. Eventually, we should expect to see a windy, rainy day in the NJ area on Tuesday with a few inches of rain being possible. Normally, this would be a non-issue, but some flooding is possible, given antecedent saturated conditions.

41889669_10214663882144752_5549698066895863808_n.jpg

As of 5 am, Florence is now a tropical depression about 20 miles SW of Columbia SC and the NHC has issued its last advisory on the storm. The storm is finally moving faster at about 8 mph and accelerating and will be near the SW tip of VA by Monday morning and then will jet across NJ, LI and eastern New England by Tuesday, bringing 1-2" of rain to the Philly-NYC corridor and a bit more north of there.

Only have a few minutes and will be out all day, so will just go ahead and post the last NHC advisory on Florence below, as well as the last track and expected additional rainfall graphics. Today parts of central/western NC, NE SC, and SW VA are under the gun for 6-10" of rain (locally up to 15"), which will bring serious to possibly catastrophic flash flooding to some of those areas. The additional 3-6" of rain for the areas closer to the coast that have already received 20-30"+ of rain will only make things worse.

From here on out the big story will be the growing stream and river flooding, which will reach major to all-time record levels for most of the major rivers in central/SE NC and far NE SC. In many places the flooding will be catastrophic between now and mid/late next week (it takes a few days for a river watershed to receive all the rainwater and runoff). For info on river flooding, the link below is a great resource - just click on the purple dots on the map to get flood stage info for rivers undergoing major flooding now or in the next few days.

https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas
today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia...

An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15
to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will
produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river
flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina...

An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will
result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the
river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in
southeast North Carolina.

West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of
Charlottesville...

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina
and eastern South Carolina today and tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

41940968_10214666023158276_2357264732798320640_n.jpg


41851312_10214666025358331_4775964729338232832_n.jpg
 
Some 2800 homes under manadatory evacuation around the Little River and Cape Fear River in Cumberland Co. (Fayetteville) NC. 8 shelters opened for them. Bad stuff to come for this whole region.
 
As of 5 am, Florence is now a tropical depression about 20 miles SW of Columbia SC and the NHC has issued its last advisory on the storm. The storm is finally moving faster at about 8 mph and accelerating and will be near the SW tip of VA by Monday morning and then will jet across NJ, LI and eastern New England by Tuesday, bringing 1-2" of rain to the Philly-NYC corridor and a bit more north of there.

Only have a few minutes and will be out all day, so will just go ahead and post the last NHC advisory on Florence below, as well as the last track and expected additional rainfall graphics. Today parts of central/western NC, NE SC, and SW VA are under the gun for 6-10" of rain (locally up to 15"), which will bring serious to possibly catastrophic flash flooding to some of those areas. The additional 3-6" of rain for the areas closer to the coast that have already received 20-30"+ of rain will only make things worse.

From here on out the big story will be the growing stream and river flooding, which will reach major to all-time record levels for most of the major rivers in central/SE NC and far NE SC. In many places the flooding will be catastrophic between now and mid/late next week (it takes a few days for a river watershed to receive all the rainwater and runoff). For info on river flooding, the link below is a great resource - just click on the purple dots on the map to get flood stage info for rivers undergoing major flooding now or in the next few days.

https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Florence Advisory Number 68
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SW OF COLUMBIA SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Florence
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, followed by a turn toward the north and northeast with an
additional increase in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast
track, Florence's center will move across the western Carolinas
today and then recurve over the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued gradual weakening is forecast during the
next couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Florence is expected to produce heavy and excessive
rainfall in the following areas...

Central and western North Carolina into far southwest Virginia...

An additional 5 to 10 inches, with storm total accumulations of 15
to 20 inches in western North Carolina. These rainfall amounts will
produce catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river
flooding, and an elevated risk for landslides in western North
Carolina and far southwest Virginia.

Southern North Carolina into Northern South Carolina...

An additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches. This rainfall will
result in additional flash flooding while also exacerbating the
river flooding. Storm total accumulations of 30 to 40 inches in
southeast North Carolina.

West-central Virginia, north of Roanoke and west of
Charlottesville...

2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall will result in
flash flooding and potentially lead to some river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible across North Carolina
and eastern South Carolina today and tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Florence. Future information on Florence can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 11
AM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

41940968_10214666023158276_2357264732798320640_n.jpg


41851312_10214666025358331_4775964729338232832_n.jpg

Still heavy rainfall in much of central/western NC, into SW VA, with another 3-6" possible tonight into Monday, as Florence accelerates away from the area. Keep in mind, though, for hilly/mountainous areas in western NC/SW VA, it only takes 3-5" of rain to cause significant flash flooding, due to topographic factors; mudslides are also possible.

The good news is that the rains are finally over for most of SE NC and NE SC, where 15-35" of rain fell (see graphic), the much more significant bad news, however, is that catastrophic river flooding is ongoing and getting worse in most of those locations. Evacuations are ongoing in anticipation of many rivers reaching major to all-time record flood levels and countless roads and highways are closed, including about 70 miles of I-95. These are life-threatening conditions to people who don't evacuate from areas inundated by 5-10 feet of water.

With regard to the river flooding, TWC has a great summary of ongoing and expected flooding, which I copied below.

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...t-rain-flood-carolinas-virginia-west-virginia

- N.E. Cape Fear River at Chinquapin, North Carolina: This location set a new record flood level on Sunday, topping the previous record of 23.5 feet from Hurricane Floyd in 1999. "Devastating flooding" occurs across the county once the river reaches 23 feet, according to the National Weather Service. The river may rise a few more feet into early this week.

- Trent River at Trenton, North Carolina: A new record crest was set on Sunday, surpassing Hurricane Floyd's flood level of 28.42 feet. The entire town of Trenton is flooded at this level.

- Neuse River at Kinston, North Carolina: Major flooding (21 feet) is ongoing, and it may rise to near 25 feet during the week ahead. Homes and businesses begin flooding when the river reaches 21 feet. This would be just over two feet below the Floyd 1999 crest, and more than 3 feet below the Matthew 2016 crest.

- N.E. Cape Fear River at Burgaw, North Carolina: Major flooding (16 feet) is ongoing, and record flooding could by Monday or Tuesday. The current flood of record is a crest of 22.5 feet from Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The National Weather Service noted that homes are flooded when the river reaches 16 feet, and many more take on water as it rises toward the record height.

- Lumber River at Lumberton, North Carolina: Major flooding (19 feet) is ongoing, and the level is now close to Hurricane Matthew's record of 24.39 feet. Flooding of homes can begin once the river reaches 17 feet. Interstate 95 has been closed between mile markers 13 and 22.

- Little River at Manchester, North Carolina: Major flooding (27 feet) is ongoing. The river could rise above Hurricane Matthew's record flood level of 32.19 feet early this week.

- Cape Fear River at Fayetteville, North Carolina: Major flooding (58 feet) is forecast by Monday or Tuesday. It could rise to its fifth-highest level on record if it tops Matthew's flood of 58.94 feet.

- Waccamaw River near Conway, South Carolina: Major flooding (14 feet) may occur by Tuesday, and record flooding is possible by the latter part of this week. The previous flood of record is 17.87 feet from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Water begins to surround homes when the river reaches 13 feet. Records here date to at least 1894.

- Major flooding is also forecast on the Little Pee Dee River at Galivants Ferry, South Carolina, the Neuse River near Goldsboro, North Carolina, the Yadkin River at Elkin, North Carolina, and the Dan River in southwestern Virginia.


Here's the link to the SE US river/flood page - people can simply click on the link then get the map of rivers in major flood stage (purple), then click on the purple dot to get the flood forecast for the next several days. I included a couple of these maps below. The first one is of the Lumber River in Lumberton, NC, which is forecast to reach 25.7 feet vs. the 24.2' all-time record from Matthew, which was catastrophic, and the river is forecast to stay over 24' for several days. The 2nd one is a similar graphic for the Cape Fear River near Jacksonville, NC, showing the river forecast to well exceed the all-time record.

https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

41946298_10214670036258601_8024839929479561216_n.jpg


41900298_10214670071099472_1853598543676178432_n.jpg


And below is a graphic showing the rainfall that has fallen through about noon today. All time state records have been set in both NC (33.9" vs. old record of 23.8") and SC (18" vs. 17.8" old record). After that are tables showing rainfall for specific cities in NC/SC through 2 pm today. The last graphic is the forecast amount of rain to still come, from the WPC as of 4 pm.

41928421_10214669991617485_1599209112497815552_n.jpg


41843165_10214669994257551_1389364298974756864_n.jpg


41927441_10214669996017595_1184848277145649152_o.jpg


41954988_10214670001937743_6842889385164144640_n.jpg
 
Last edited:
Still heavy rainfall in much of central/western NC, into SW VA, with another 3-6" possible tonight into Monday, as Florence accelerates away from the area. Keep in mind, though, for hilly/mountainous areas in western NC/SE VA, it only takes 3-5" of rain to cause significant flash flooding, due to topographic factors; mudslides are also possible.

The good news is that the rains are finally over for most of SE NC and NE SC, where 15-35" of rain fell (see graphic), the much more significant bad news, however, is that catastrophic river flooding is ongoing and getting worse in most of those locations. Evacuations are ongoing in anticipation of many rivers reaching major to all-time record flood levels and countless roads and highways are closed, including about 70 miles of I-95. These are life-threatening conditions to people who don't evacuate from areas inundated by 5-10 feet of water.

With regard to the river flooding, TWC has a great summary of ongoing and expected flooding, which I copied below.

https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...t-rain-flood-carolinas-virginia-west-virginia

- N.E. Cape Fear River at Chinquapin, North Carolina: This location set a new record flood level on Sunday, topping the previous record of 23.5 feet from Hurricane Floyd in 1999. "Devastating flooding" occurs across the county once the river reaches 23 feet, according to the National Weather Service. The river may rise a few more feet into early this week.

- Trent River at Trenton, North Carolina: A new record crest was set on Sunday, surpassing Hurricane Floyd's flood level of 28.42 feet. The entire town of Trenton is flooded at this level.

- Neuse River at Kinston, North Carolina: Major flooding (21 feet) is ongoing, and it may rise to near 25 feet during the week ahead. Homes and businesses begin flooding when the river reaches 21 feet. This would be just over two feet below the Floyd 1999 crest, and more than 3 feet below the Matthew 2016 crest.

- N.E. Cape Fear River at Burgaw, North Carolina: Major flooding (16 feet) is ongoing, and record flooding could by Monday or Tuesday. The current flood of record is a crest of 22.5 feet from Hurricane Floyd in 1999. The National Weather Service noted that homes are flooded when the river reaches 16 feet, and many more take on water as it rises toward the record height.

- Lumber River at Lumberton, North Carolina: Major flooding (19 feet) is ongoing, and the level is now close to Hurricane Matthew's record of 24.39 feet. Flooding of homes can begin once the river reaches 17 feet. Interstate 95 has been closed between mile markers 13 and 22.

- Little River at Manchester, North Carolina: Major flooding (27 feet) is ongoing. The river could rise above Hurricane Matthew's record flood level of 32.19 feet early this week.

- Cape Fear River at Fayetteville, North Carolina: Major flooding (58 feet) is forecast by Monday or Tuesday. It could rise to its fifth-highest level on record if it tops Matthew's flood of 58.94 feet.

- Waccamaw River near Conway, South Carolina: Major flooding (14 feet) may occur by Tuesday, and record flooding is possible by the latter part of this week. The previous flood of record is 17.87 feet from Hurricane Matthew in 2016. Water begins to surround homes when the river reaches 13 feet. Records here date to at least 1894.

- Major flooding is also forecast on the Little Pee Dee River at Galivants Ferry, South Carolina, the Neuse River near Goldsboro, North Carolina, the Yadkin River at Elkin, North Carolina, and the Dan River in southwestern Virginia.


Here's the link to the SE US river/flood page - people can simply click on the link then get the map of rivers in major flood stage (purple), then click on the purple dot to get the flood forecast for the next several days. I included a couple of these maps below. The first one is of the Lumber River in Lumberton, NC, which is forecast to reach 25.7 feet vs. the 24.2' all-time record from Matthew, which was catastrophic, and the river is forecast to stay over 24' for several days. The 2nd one is a similar graphic for the Cape Fear River near Jacksonville, NC, showing the river forecast to well exceed the all-time record.

https://www.weather.gov/serfc/

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And below is a graphic showing the rainfall that has fallen through about noon today. All time state records have been set in both NC (33.9" vs. old record of 23.8") and SC (18" vs. 17.8" old record). After that are tables showing rainfall for specific cities in NC/SC through 2 pm today. The last graphic is the forecast amount of rain to still come, from the WPC as of 4 pm.

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I notice NJ is no longer in green on the bottom map showing rainfall forecasts for the next 48 hours. This seems like good news.

I notice from the rainfall maps that the Research Triangle Park area was not hit that badly; this storm was not like Fran, back in 1996, which was considered at least a hundred-year storm for that area, and which knocked down a lot of trees and knocked out power for a long time. A lot of houses in the area have wells, and so the loss of electricity meant no water. I was down there in that period, and it was a rough time for all.
 
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From Mt Holly...heaviest of Florence waste likely to pass to the north and west but still rain is expected for NJ

Monday night through Tuesday...

The main focus for this part of the forecast period will be
Florence`s remnants affecting the area with some potentially heavy
rainfall. We expect that the most widespread heavy rainfall will
stay mainly north and west of the area closer to the track of the
low but that localized heavy rainfall totals with an associated
flash flood risk will still be possible over the area.

To start the period Monday evening, what`s left of Florence will be
centered over the Ohio Valley as the system continues to go
undergoes extra-tropical transition. Meanwhile, high pressure will
be continuing to drift off to the east over the western Atlantic. A
warm front will extend east from Ohio across the mid Atlantic.
Expect that there will be some initial showers and perhaps a
few storms that move across the area into Monday evening along
the warm front with the best chances for this being over the
Delmarva into eastern PA. Beyond this time Florence will track
north and east through Monday night taking a track through PA
toward upstate NY. This will put the us in the warm sector of
the system. As such, expect the steadiest heavy rain to stay
mainly north/west of the forecast area but that there will be
fairly numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms that move
through. Instability will be increasing with the warm, moist
southerly flow and PWATs will rise to the 2.0 - 2.25 range along
with a deep warm cloud layer over 13 k ft deep. For these
reasons expect that some of these showers/storms will likely be
moderate to heavy - especially over eastern PA. While cells
should be moving fairly quickly, a mostly unidirectional wind
profile suggests that training may be an issue so we continue to
expect at least some risk for localized flash
flooding...especially in the predawn hours as the strongest
surge of moisture and deep forcing arrives. It will be a mild
and muggy night with temps not dropping much as lows will be
mostly in the low to mid 70s.

By Tuesday morning, the remnant low from Florence will be centered
somewhere over eastern PA or upstate NY and will continue to track
east through the day as it heads into New England. This will drag a
trailing cold front through the area north to south during the
course of the day resulting in continuing showers and thunderstorms.
These will be most widespread along and N/W of the I-95 corridor
through the morning and areas south of here by later in the
afternoon. An associated risk for localized flash flooding will
continue.

By Tuesday evening, showers will be ending as the front clears the
area behind the departing system. Basin averaged rainfall totals by
this time will generally be on the order of a half inch or so south
of the I-95 corridor with around three quarters of an inch to an
inch and a half farther north. However expect that locally higher
amounts will occur in heavier shower/storms, especially if any
training occurs.
 
I notice NJ is no longer in green on the bottom map showing rainfall forecasts for the next 48 hours. This seems like good news.

I notice from the rainfall maps that the Research Triangle Park area was not hit that badly; this storm was not like Fran, back in 1996, which was considered at least a hundred-year storm for that area, and which knocked down a lot of trees and knocked out power for a long time. A lot of houses in the area have wells, and so the loss of electricity meant no water. I was down there in that period, and it was a rough time for all.

Yep, most of the rain should be to the N/NW of the remnants of Florence as it motors through our area, with maybe an inch or so in the Philly-NYC area (with some >1" amounts well to the N/W and areas towards the shore getting less). But we're not far from getting a bit more than an inch, as per the WPC map, which is better than the one I posted above.

d13_fill.gif


Also, the Raleigh area has had 4-8" so far and can expect another 2-4", so they could reach 10+" in total. May not be catastrophic flooding, but will be substantial flooding in the area.
 
where is the Buffalo game weather thread...timing of the front and whether it stalls looks to be an issue although its not like any activity would be heavy.
 
Yep, most of the rain should be to the N/NW of the remnants of Florence as it motors through our area, with maybe an inch or so in the Philly-NYC area (with some >1" amounts well to the N/W and areas towards the shore getting less). But we're not far from getting a bit more than an inch, as per the WPC map, which is better than the one I posted above.

d13_fill.gif


Also, the Raleigh area has had 4-8" so far and can expect another 2-4", so they could reach 10+" in total. May not be catastrophic flooding, but will be substantial flooding in the area.

It seems that the Raleigh area is being hit harder than Durham or Chapel Hill; as I'm sure you know, all three towns are roughly the borders of the RTP area. Thanks for the update on the forecast for NJ; same to bac.
 
where is the Buffalo game weather thread...timing of the front and whether it stalls looks to be an issue although its not like any activity would be heavy.

I honestly was so fed up about the Kansas game that I had no interest in it yesterday - no problem if you want to start one. If you don't, I'll start one late tonight...
 
I honestly was so fed up about the Kansas game that I had no interest in it yesterday - no problem if you want to start one. If you don't, I'll start one late tonight...


I don't get it. You left the board high and dry in the middle of a snowstorm and them bitch when someone else starts a football weather thread. Now you are fed up with the team performance so you don't start one and now say let someone else do it
 
I don't get it. You left the board high and dry in the middle of a snowstorm and them bitch when someone else starts a football weather thread. Now you are fed up with the team performance so you don't start one and now say let someone else do it

Your reading comprehension sucks. I was annoyed that your brother started a gameday thread 11 days out, when he had rarely ever started one and had often criticized me for starting threads too early. The couple of other times he started gameday weather threads I never said a thing - only this one.

And please with the melodramatic comments on leaving the board high and dry in the middle of a snowstorm. I started that thread and posted until the start of the storm, which is 98% of what's important, plus it was a fairly minor snowfall that melted in hours. I think the board survived.
 
c
I notice NJ is no longer in green on the bottom map showing rainfall forecasts for the next 48 hours. This seems like good news.

I notice from the rainfall maps that the Research Triangle Park area was not hit that badly; this storm was not like Fran, back in 1996, which was considered at least a hundred-year storm for that area, and which knocked down a lot of trees and knocked out power for a long time. A lot of houses in the area have wells, and so the loss of electricity meant no water. I was down there in that period, and it was a rough time for all.


Yes. that was no fun. I own /control 6 physical (brick & mortar) business from Durham to Chapel Hill/Carrboro and so far we've been spared at all locations. Next 48 hours are the key, I am told.
 
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Would need to know where you are to evaluate your statement...
I think maybe you should re-read his post and then yours...

Dude says storm was a bust in his area... and you need to "evaluate" that direct observation? Please keep in mind, I ain't one of your haters in weather threads... I'm not just giving you a hard time.. your comment just struck me as very odd.
 
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Was hoping you'd take the VA route - far safer, although it's still going to be pretty damn rainy in Waynesboro on Sunday into Monday with 2-4", but likely only minor flooding. And don't try to get back to Pinehurst until at least late Sunday, as they'll be getting 6-10" through late Sunday into early Monday (and Raleigh will be getting 3-6").

Made it back to Pinehurst Sunday around 4 pm. Only ran into heavy weather about 30 miles from home. Sunday night was rough, per my wife. I slept through it. Lots of rain, wind, thunder. No damage. Thankfully. Just lots of yard clean up. Power was lost for a day while we were gone. But was back on Sunday morning. Sump pump working OT. Neighbor up in Boone check our property there and indicates all is well there, too.
 
I think maybe you should re-read his post and then yours...

Dude says storm was a bust in his area... and you need to "evaluate" that direct observation? Please keep in mind, I ain't one of your haters in weather threads... I'm not just giving you a hard time.. your comment just struck me as very odd.

Just because someone is not impacted by a storm does not necessarily mean it is a "bust" in a traditional sense. If the forecast was for 20 inches of rain and only 2 came down, that's a big difference than if the forecast was 3 inches of rain and only 2 came down.

In and extreme example, someone from Virginia could say that Florence was a bust for them, even though they were never expected to be in the direct path.
 
Power outage aside, the storm was a bust in my area.

Maybe I'm a wuss, but a storm that resulted in my having a power outage would not seem to be a bust. Less than expected? sure, but not a bust. I'm glad you and yours are fine, and I don't mean to get into an argument.
 
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