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OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

I think maybe you should re-read his post and then yours...

Dude says storm was a bust in his area... and you need to "evaluate" that direct observation? Please keep in mind, I ain't one of your haters in weather threads... I'm not just giving you a hard time.. your comment just struck me as very odd.

I was just curious to know where he lived to see what the forecast was vs. what he got, that's all. I have no idea if MGSA is a weather expert and knows well what a bust would be vs. someone who's just going by a gut feeling, which is not that uncommon.
 
Made it back to Pinehurst Sunday around 4 pm. Only ran into heavy weather about 30 miles from home. Sunday night was rough, per my wife. I slept through it. Lots of rain, wind, thunder. No damage. Thankfully. Just lots of yard clean up. Power was lost for a day while we were gone. But was back on Sunday morning. Sump pump working OT. Neighbor up in Boone check our property there and indicates all is well there, too.

Excellent, great to hear!
 
Made it back to Pinehurst Sunday around 4 pm. Only ran into heavy weather about 30 miles from home. Sunday night was rough, per my wife. I slept through it. Lots of rain, wind, thunder. No damage. Thankfully. Just lots of yard clean up. Power was lost for a day while we were gone. But was back on Sunday morning. Sump pump working OT. Neighbor up in Boone check our property there and indicates all is well there, too.
Glad it worked out for you.
 
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Well, the rains in the Carolinas are essentially over, but the river flooding is nowhere near over. Since I'm short on time, in quotes below is a nice summary of the status of the flooding in NC from Jeff Masters' blog, Category 6.

Suffice it to say, however, that catastrophic, life-threatening river flooding continues and is getting worse in some locations and will last for 3-7 days, depending on the river. Wilmington, NC is cut off from all vehicles, many major highways are closed in SC/NC, businesses and schools remain closed, and 20 people have died so far.

A different way to look at the total rainfall is how frequent such levels of rainfall wold be expected to occur - in the graphic below it shows that this was a once in 1000 year storm for large parts of SC/NC. With regard to reports on flooding and impacts, the links below do a nice job.

There are still 2-4" rains expected along the interior mid-Atlantic states and then across interior NY/New England, generally north of I-84 in NY and I-95 in CT/RI (up to about Albany to Portsmouth, NH; about 1-2" is expected in the Philly-NJ-NYC area tonight/tomorrow; see the WPC graphic below for the next 2 days.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Carolinas-Struggle-Florences-1-in-1000-Year-Rains
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-17-florence-flooding-north-south-carolina

"At least five record river crests had already been established by Monday afternoon, all of them topping records established during either Hurricane Floyd (1999) or Hurricane Matthew (2016). Most of these are predicted to remain above the previous record levels throughout this week. Records set as of early Monday include:
  • Northeast Cape Fear River near Chinquapin, NC: 24.21’ (old record 23.51’ during Floyd)
  • Northeast Cape Fear River at Burgaw, NC: 23.19’ (old record 22.48’ during Floyd)
  • Trent River at Trenton, NC: 29.28’ (old record 28.42’ during Floyd)
  • Little River at Manchester, NC: 34.3’ (old record 32.19’ during Matthew)
  • Black River near Tomahawk, NC: 28.71’ (old record 27.92’ during Matthew)
  • Other rivers expecting record or near-record flooding this week include the Cape Fear River at Fayetteville, NC; the Neuse River at Kinston, NC; the Waccamaw River near Conway, SC; and the Pee Dee River at Cheraw, SC.
  • At least 20 deaths have been attributed to Florence, including 14 in North Carolina and six in South Carolina. See the weather.com roundup for more on Florence’s impacts."
41903717_10214675423113269_992951702455844864_n.jpg


41907734_10214675638438652_5513003111859355648_n.jpg


Finally, this video says a lot - it's from Leland NC, just across the Cape Fear River from Wilmington.

 
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We lived very close to this neighborhood back in 1990-92. Sad to see this:

There's actually power in part of Scott's Hill. Also notable in that area is that the big oak tree by the Wesleyan chapel cemetery fell onto 17, and very big, very old (I think sycamore) at Poplar grove fell over. I live in Hampstead myself
 
There's actually power in part of Scott's Hill. Also notable in that area is that the big oak tree by the Wesleyan chapel cemetery fell onto 17, and very big, very old (I think sycamore) at Poplar grove fell over. I live in Hampstead myself
Hope you are doing OK. When we lived down there, the retired RU VP of Public Safety, Bob Och, lived in Hampstead. We lived over in North Chase, but we wanted to live on the water. A lot of people are doing that now.
 
Lol at Mike Seidel video that's why I love the TWC dramatic attention hoars. They've been doing it for years
 
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I was just curious to know where he lived to see what the forecast was vs. what he got, that's all. I have no idea if MGSA is a weather expert and knows well what a bust would be vs. someone who's just going by a gut feeling, which is not that uncommon.
I think given the storm’s enormity and power, a “bust” definitely is the wrong word: maybe “counting my blessings that I didn’t get direct impact.”
 
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I was just curious to know where he lived to see what the forecast was vs. what he got, that's all. I have no idea if MGSA is a weather expert and knows well what a bust would be vs. someone who's just going by a gut feeling, which is not that uncommon.
To clarify, I live in the Greenville-Spartanburg area. We were supposed to get 4-8” of rain from the storm but most of the bands stayed north of us so we got far less. For my immediate area I call it a bust, but for other areas closer to the coast, obviously not.
 
Is North Jersey getting a lot of rain? Here in Cherry Hill, the rain has been pretty light and (as of 4 p.m.) seems pretty much over. I heard from my sister in Columbus, Ohio, that they got about half an inch. I'm glad we don't have to worry about Florence or its remnants any more!
 
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Is North Jersey getting a lot of rain? Here in Cherry Hill, the rain has been pretty light and (as of 4 p.m.) seems pretty much over. I heard from my sister in Columbus, Ohio, that they got about half an inch. I'm glad we don't have to worry about Florence or its remnants any more!

Parts of the state got hit hard with 2-3" of rain, especially CNJ from about Trenton to SI and areas near the shore south of about Pt. Pleasant, but other parts got <1/2" and most got 0.5-1.5". Rain is mostly over now, except far SE NJ.

radarstorm720.png
 
To clarify, I live in the Greenville-Spartanburg area. We were supposed to get 4-8” of rain from the storm but most of the bands stayed north of us so we got far less. For my immediate area I call it a bust, but for other areas closer to the coast, obviously not.

Yes, you guys ended up with a bit less than forecast, being in the 3-4" swath on the map, but that's a fairly minor miss in my opinion. As an aside, it's just unreal looking at some of these totals. Catastrophic flooding continues in much of NC and NE SC. It's going to be days before the floodwaters recede and the cleanup is going to take a long time.

https://www.axios.com/hurricane-flo...ise-b2851e67-17e4-4a5d-95aa-6cdefacc4a45.html

42106104_10214682500170191_3628737689940918272_n.jpg
 
Parts of the state got hit hard with 2-3" of rain, especially CNJ from about Trenton to SI and areas near the shore south of about Pt. Pleasant, but other parts got <1/2" and most got 0.5-1.5". Rain is mostly over now, except far SE NJ.

radarstorm720.png

I think I saw a flash flood warning for the New Brunswick area. I remember that back in the 1990s, there was a big storm (maybe remnants of a hurricane) that closed the New Brunswick campus on a day I had a meeting there. I remember Bound Brook had very heavy flooding. I take it this was not nearly as bad.

Thanks for having so much info on this storm, and I'm also glad the thread was relatively tranquil. It helped that the storm wasn't in our area, and that it wasn't snow, so people couldn't accuse you of rooting for it.
 
I think I saw a flash flood warning for the New Brunswick area. I remember that back in the 1990s, there was a big storm (maybe remnants of a hurricane) that closed the New Brunswick campus on a day I had a meeting there. I remember Bound Brook had very heavy flooding. I take it this was not nearly as bad.

Thanks for having so much info on this storm, and I'm also glad the thread was relatively tranquil. It helped that the storm wasn't in our area, and that it wasn't snow, so people couldn't accuse you of rooting for it.

Yes, there was a flash flood warning earlier from about Trenton to NB, as that's where the heaviest rains fell in a short time. The storm you're probably remembering is Floyd from September 1999, which inundated much of NJ with 8+" of rain, including the all-time NJ record of 14" of rain (I think this was during Floyd) - flooding in Manville, Bound Brook, NB, etc. was historic.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Floyd

Thread was pretty good, thanks. Lots of good contributions from many people.
 
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Yes, you guys ended up with a bit less than forecast, being in the 3-4" swath on the map, but that's a fairly minor miss in my opinion. As an aside, it's just unreal looking at some of these totals. Catastrophic flooding continues in much of NC and NE SC. It's going to be days before the floodwaters recede and the cleanup is going to take a long time.

https://www.axios.com/hurricane-flo...ise-b2851e67-17e4-4a5d-95aa-6cdefacc4a45.html

42106104_10214682500170191_3628737689940918272_n.jpg
Unless you are in the direct swath hurricanes will bust most everywhere else. Usually everywhere else will get 40-60 MPH winds which is no different than a nor'easter. Storm surge is usually the killer not the wind unless your right there. Lately it's been the rain doing most of the damage
 
Don't know if this was mentioned but another danger can be wildlife in flooded areas.

A friend of mine lives just west of the Intercoastal Waterway in Myrtle Beach. He made out fine but his next door neighbor had a shock finding a 5 ft Water Moccasin in front of his garage door. My friend said there were reports of a number in the area.
 
Don't know if this was mentioned but another danger can be wildlife in flooded areas.

A friend of mine lives just west of the Intercoastal Waterway in Myrtle Beach. He made out fine but his next door neighbor had a shock finding a 5 ft Water Moccasin in front of his garage door. My friend said there were reports of a number in the area.

Eastern NC has more hogs than people, some 8 million piggies. Also lots of chicken and turkey "production" facilities. News reports are indicating overflowing hog waste "lagoons," in addition to lot of dead stock.

Furthermore Duke Progress Energy maintains a number of "coal ash" impoundments in eastern NC. Reports indicate a number of these facilities have been breached.

Lots of nasty stuff to come.

FYI... Smithfield Foods is the largest hog producer in the state, and is owned by the WH Group of China.
 
Eastern NC has more hogs than people, some 8 million piggies. Also lots of chicken and turkey "production" facilities. News reports are indicating overflowing hog waste "lagoons," in addition to lot of dead stock.

Furthermore Duke Progress Energy maintains a number of "coal ash" impoundments in eastern NC. Reports indicate a number of these facilities have been breached.

Lots of nasty stuff to come.

FYI... Smithfield Foods is the largest hog producer in the state, and is owned by the WH Group of China.

The gators and the environmental mess are just adding insult to injury and estimates are of 3.4 million chickens killed and over 5000 hogs. And the human death toll is up to 37, as the catastrophic flooding continues, especially in NC. The drone video below shows just how bad it is.



https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/2018-09-18-florence-flooding-north-south-carolina-virginia

On the plus side, the tropics in the Atlantic have quieted down and look to remain quiet for the next 2 weeks. However, after that, indications are that the pattern will become favorable for tropical development, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (climatologically favored regions in early October). This is not a forecast, by any means, but the MJO pattern (Madden-Julian Oscillation) of eastward propagating waves in the tropics, which can influence tropical activity is forecast to enhance tropical development in early October. Worth watching.

Finally, here's an interesting tidbit. We might just see a "Medicane" soon - a Mediterranean Sea tropical system of sorts - not technically defined as tropical, but exhibiting many of the same characteristics. Bottom line is a low is developing which could bring 50-60 mph winds to an area between Sardinia and Italy.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/After-Florence-Whats-Next-Atlantic
 
@RU#'s the link above seems to indicate the "medicane" conditions could exist in early October, if I stand correctly.

If so, the Carolinas will still be dealing with the post-Florence flooding aftermaths. Any suggestions on where or how to best follow the the "medicane" formations ? And this board is a fine recommendation, if the others are too technical. Thanks in advance.
 
@RU#'s the link above seems to indicate the "medicane" conditions could exist in early October, if I stand correctly.

If so, the Carolinas will still be dealing with the post-Florence flooding aftermaths. Any suggestions on where or how to best follow the the "medicane" formations ? And this board is a fine recommendation, if the others are too technical. Thanks in advance.

"Medicane" refers to Mediterranean "hurricanes" (they're semi-tropical in nature, which is why hurricanes is in quotes). I don't really follow European weather much, but the current 33andrain.com tropical activity thread is discussing them and this link covers this kind of weather in Europe:

http://www.severe-weather.eu/mcd/ex...yclone-over-the-tyrrhenian-sea-until-satuday/

These have nothing to do with Florence and the Carolinas, though. I was mentioning the MJO and the upcoming pattern separately from Medicanes. The pattern is looking favorable for tropical activity in the Caribbean and GOM in early to mid-October, but that's too far out for actual storm predictions. The NHC is your best bet to follow activity in the Atlantic Basin.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
 
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I saw a story in the Washington Post that said that there is now great discontent with the Saffir-Simpson scale (the scale that classifies storms as Category 1, 2, etc.) because it only considers wind. Apparently a lot of people in the Carolinas thought the storm was no big deal once it was dropped to Category 1, and so they didn't evacuate. It's suggested that what we need is a scale that takes into account storm surge and rainfall at a minimum.
 
I saw a story in the Washington Post that said that there is now great discontent with the Saffir-Simpson scale (the scale that classifies storms as Category 1, 2, etc.) because it only considers wind. Apparently a lot of people in the Carolinas thought the storm was no big deal once it was dropped to Category 1, and so they didn't evacuate. It's suggested that what we need is a scale that takes into account storm surge and rainfall at a minimum.

Saffir-Simpson clearly has limited value, as it is only a measure of max winds near the center of the storm. As I had mentioned a few times in this thread, some experts these days prefer to use Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), a measure of the sum total of energy across the entire storm (for winds over 40 mph), which takes into account a storm's size, which can be critical with regard to breadth of impact, especially for storm surge and rainfall/flooding. Finally, evaluating IKE over a period of time vs. just at landfall may be even more important. Some comparative points:
  • IKE rankings (below) show how both Sandy and Ike, just cat 1 and cat 2 storms with regard to wind, had huge IKE ratings at landfall, better illustrating the total power of these two storms, which were extremely destructive. Also, Katrina, which had weakened from Cat 5 to Cat 3 before landfall in MS, causing some to discount its potential impact. Katrina had a much larger IKE and larger storm surge, especially in NO, than Cat 5 Camille (a very small, but high wind storm), which made landfall in the same area.
  • On the other hand, IKE shows a low score for Cat 5 Andrew, which implies Andrew might not have been that impactful, when we know Andrew absolutely annihilated a relatively small swath of South Florida with 165 mph winds.
  • And then there are storms like Florence and Harvey, which only had moderately high IKE scores, but their biggest impacts were the combination of IKE score plus the time they spent over one area, which obviously translated to ridiculously high rainfall amounts.
The bottom line is that there's probably no single "score" that will be universally effective at conveying hurricane risks. However, I thought the major media were pretty clear about the impacts from Florence still likely being catastrophic, despite reduced winds, due to surge and rainfall/flooding resulting from the very slow moving hurricane. I know I felt like a broken record highlighting those risks. But sometimes, people simply don't evaluate all the info at hand and make bad decisions.

ike-sandy.gif


https://gizmodo.com/the-way-we-categorize-hurricanes-sucks-but-heres-how-we-1708927590
https://gizmodo.com/the-way-we-categorize-hurricanes-sucks-but-heres-how-we-1708927590
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...e669876c6a24_blog.html?utm_term=.34883b21d1a6
 
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So, Gordon came ashore last night just west of the MS/AL border with 70 mph winds, so it never made it hurricane strength (74 mph) and it has already weakened to a tropical depression. Damage was not extensive from winds or surge, but rainfall is expected to be 5-10", overall, especially to the NE of the storm's center, so flooding will continue to be the major risk.

The big news, however, is that now hurricane Florence may now end up threatening the US east coast in about 8-10 days and not end up being a fish storm, i.e., it might not recurve near Bermuda towards the NE and out to sea, like most storms in this situation do. Instead, the long range models, including the Euro, the best model for tropical systems, are showing Florence being shunted to the west along the southern periphery of a major high pressure system that will be dominating the weather for the US east coast into the western Atlantic (highs have counterclockwise flow, so the southern periphery of a high will have east to west winds or steering currents for a hurricane).

It's way too far out to predict a US impact or landfall, as model track errors beyond 5 days get quite large (which is why the NHC only shows a 5-day track prediction), but it's now a possibility, so Florence needs to be watched closely, especially as some of the models show Florence becoming a major hurricane as it nears and possibly makes landfall on the US east coast (anywhere from FL to New England with NC being at greatest risk at this point). Impacts on the NJ/NY/LI area can't be ruled out either. Looking at the ensemble members for the global models (where the model is run with perturbations in the initial/boundary conditions to look at senstivity to these variations), this storm could still end up anywhere from the Caribbean to a fish storm that doesn't come close to the US, but the US east coast is now a possible destination.

Too early to post maps in my opinion, but if anyone wants to explore the nitty gritty of the model runs with commentary by some excellent professionals, the 33andrain thread is an interesting read. Also, the next tropical wave, which is just SW of the Cape Verde Islands, is likely to become Helene in the next few days and its path is likely to bring it towards the Caribbean eventually in 8-10 days. And there's one more wave emerging off of Africa which could become Isaac.

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/891-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season/?page=20

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

Score one for the global models, especially the Euro. 9 days before landfall in NC, the Euro showed Florence landfalling just south of Myrtle Beach, about 50 miles SE of where the actual landfall was (and 6-12 hours early). Also, the NHC nailed this storm pretty well too, especially with regard to track, predicting the landfall at 5 days out to be within 2 miles of where the actual landfall was. Mind blowing, IMO.
 
What’s this I hear about Florence getting a sex change?

Remnants from Florence have split into multiple pieces of energy, one of which could develop into a weak tropical storm over the next 5-6 days south of Bermuda and could even threaten the SE US, but no models are showing a hurricane or even a strong tropical storm. Still haven't heard a definitive statement on what its name would be...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Florences-Floods-Future-Atlantic-Threats-and-Medicane
 
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