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I think maybe you should re-read his post and then yours...
Dude says storm was a bust in his area... and you need to "evaluate" that direct observation? Please keep in mind, I ain't one of your haters in weather threads... I'm not just giving you a hard time.. your comment just struck me as very odd.
Made it back to Pinehurst Sunday around 4 pm. Only ran into heavy weather about 30 miles from home. Sunday night was rough, per my wife. I slept through it. Lots of rain, wind, thunder. No damage. Thankfully. Just lots of yard clean up. Power was lost for a day while we were gone. But was back on Sunday morning. Sump pump working OT. Neighbor up in Boone check our property there and indicates all is well there, too.
Glad it worked out for you.Made it back to Pinehurst Sunday around 4 pm. Only ran into heavy weather about 30 miles from home. Sunday night was rough, per my wife. I slept through it. Lots of rain, wind, thunder. No damage. Thankfully. Just lots of yard clean up. Power was lost for a day while we were gone. But was back on Sunday morning. Sump pump working OT. Neighbor up in Boone check our property there and indicates all is well there, too.
We lived very close to this neighborhood back in 1990-92. Sad to see this:
Hope you are doing OK. When we lived down there, the retired RU VP of Public Safety, Bob Och, lived in Hampstead. We lived over in North Chase, but we wanted to live on the water. A lot of people are doing that now.There's actually power in part of Scott's Hill. Also notable in that area is that the big oak tree by the Wesleyan chapel cemetery fell onto 17, and very big, very old (I think sycamore) at Poplar grove fell over. I live in Hampstead myself
I think given the storm’s enormity and power, a “bust” definitely is the wrong word: maybe “counting my blessings that I didn’t get direct impact.”I was just curious to know where he lived to see what the forecast was vs. what he got, that's all. I have no idea if MGSA is a weather expert and knows well what a bust would be vs. someone who's just going by a gut feeling, which is not that uncommon.
To clarify, I live in the Greenville-Spartanburg area. We were supposed to get 4-8” of rain from the storm but most of the bands stayed north of us so we got far less. For my immediate area I call it a bust, but for other areas closer to the coast, obviously not.I was just curious to know where he lived to see what the forecast was vs. what he got, that's all. I have no idea if MGSA is a weather expert and knows well what a bust would be vs. someone who's just going by a gut feeling, which is not that uncommon.
Is North Jersey getting a lot of rain? Here in Cherry Hill, the rain has been pretty light and (as of 4 p.m.) seems pretty much over. I heard from my sister in Columbus, Ohio, that they got about half an inch. I'm glad we don't have to worry about Florence or its remnants any more!
To clarify, I live in the Greenville-Spartanburg area. We were supposed to get 4-8” of rain from the storm but most of the bands stayed north of us so we got far less. For my immediate area I call it a bust, but for other areas closer to the coast, obviously not.
Parts of the state got hit hard with 2-3" of rain, especially CNJ from about Trenton to SI and areas near the shore south of about Pt. Pleasant, but other parts got <1/2" and most got 0.5-1.5". Rain is mostly over now, except far SE NJ.
I think I saw a flash flood warning for the New Brunswick area. I remember that back in the 1990s, there was a big storm (maybe remnants of a hurricane) that closed the New Brunswick campus on a day I had a meeting there. I remember Bound Brook had very heavy flooding. I take it this was not nearly as bad.
Thanks for having so much info on this storm, and I'm also glad the thread was relatively tranquil. It helped that the storm wasn't in our area, and that it wasn't snow, so people couldn't accuse you of rooting for it.
Unless you are in the direct swath hurricanes will bust most everywhere else. Usually everywhere else will get 40-60 MPH winds which is no different than a nor'easter. Storm surge is usually the killer not the wind unless your right there. Lately it's been the rain doing most of the damageYes, you guys ended up with a bit less than forecast, being in the 3-4" swath on the map, but that's a fairly minor miss in my opinion. As an aside, it's just unreal looking at some of these totals. Catastrophic flooding continues in much of NC and NE SC. It's going to be days before the floodwaters recede and the cleanup is going to take a long time.
https://www.axios.com/hurricane-flo...ise-b2851e67-17e4-4a5d-95aa-6cdefacc4a45.html
Don't know if this was mentioned but another danger can be wildlife in flooded areas.
A friend of mine lives just west of the Intercoastal Waterway in Myrtle Beach. He made out fine but his next door neighbor had a shock finding a 5 ft Water Moccasin in front of his garage door. My friend said there were reports of a number in the area.
Eastern NC has more hogs than people, some 8 million piggies. Also lots of chicken and turkey "production" facilities. News reports are indicating overflowing hog waste "lagoons," in addition to lot of dead stock.
Furthermore Duke Progress Energy maintains a number of "coal ash" impoundments in eastern NC. Reports indicate a number of these facilities have been breached.
Lots of nasty stuff to come.
FYI... Smithfield Foods is the largest hog producer in the state, and is owned by the WH Group of China.
@RU#'s the link above seems to indicate the "medicane" conditions could exist in early October, if I stand correctly.
If so, the Carolinas will still be dealing with the post-Florence flooding aftermaths. Any suggestions on where or how to best follow the the "medicane" formations ? And this board is a fine recommendation, if the others are too technical. Thanks in advance.
I saw a story in the Washington Post that said that there is now great discontent with the Saffir-Simpson scale (the scale that classifies storms as Category 1, 2, etc.) because it only considers wind. Apparently a lot of people in the Carolinas thought the storm was no big deal once it was dropped to Category 1, and so they didn't evacuate. It's suggested that what we need is a scale that takes into account storm surge and rainfall at a minimum.
So, Gordon came ashore last night just west of the MS/AL border with 70 mph winds, so it never made it hurricane strength (74 mph) and it has already weakened to a tropical depression. Damage was not extensive from winds or surge, but rainfall is expected to be 5-10", overall, especially to the NE of the storm's center, so flooding will continue to be the major risk.
The big news, however, is that now hurricane Florence may now end up threatening the US east coast in about 8-10 days and not end up being a fish storm, i.e., it might not recurve near Bermuda towards the NE and out to sea, like most storms in this situation do. Instead, the long range models, including the Euro, the best model for tropical systems, are showing Florence being shunted to the west along the southern periphery of a major high pressure system that will be dominating the weather for the US east coast into the western Atlantic (highs have counterclockwise flow, so the southern periphery of a high will have east to west winds or steering currents for a hurricane).
It's way too far out to predict a US impact or landfall, as model track errors beyond 5 days get quite large (which is why the NHC only shows a 5-day track prediction), but it's now a possibility, so Florence needs to be watched closely, especially as some of the models show Florence becoming a major hurricane as it nears and possibly makes landfall on the US east coast (anywhere from FL to New England with NC being at greatest risk at this point). Impacts on the NJ/NY/LI area can't be ruled out either. Looking at the ensemble members for the global models (where the model is run with perturbations in the initial/boundary conditions to look at senstivity to these variations), this storm could still end up anywhere from the Caribbean to a fish storm that doesn't come close to the US, but the US east coast is now a possible destination.
Too early to post maps in my opinion, but if anyone wants to explore the nitty gritty of the model runs with commentary by some excellent professionals, the 33andrain thread is an interesting read. Also, the next tropical wave, which is just SW of the Cape Verde Islands, is likely to become Helene in the next few days and its path is likely to bring it towards the Caribbean eventually in 8-10 days. And there's one more wave emerging off of Africa which could become Isaac.
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/891-2018-atlantic-hurricane-season/?page=20
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
What’s this I hear about Florence getting a sex change?