OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

[RU848789]

The NHC 11 pm advisory is out and Florence continues to undergo significant shear and has been lowered to a 60 mph TS, but the shear should relax soon and the rest of the track takes Florence over generally low shear areas that have very warm sea surface temps (near 90F). As a result, the forecast is for Florence to reintensify to a Cat 3/4 130 mph storm (and stronger is very possible) by Day 5, where it will be taking aim at the SE US coast, somewhere between northern FL and NC, with US landfall looking quite likely next Thursday, but still not a given, as there is a dwindling chance that the anomalously strong ridge could be overestimated and the storm still could escape out to sea after coming close to the Outer Banks.

Right now, biggest threat for our area appears to be torrential rains if Florence doesn't track too far inland after landfall and it moves as a TS/remnants up towards our area next Friday/Saturday - flooding could be major if that occurs, but will be much less if Florence goes further inland and then turns north well west of our area. Still too early to call and there's still the chance Florence could skirt the OBX and come very close to the DelMarVa and/or NJ/LI coasts (with landfall possible, but not a Sandy-like landfall). Here's the ominous wording from the NHC:

The initial motion estimate is 265 degrees at 6 kt. Florence is
expected to continue moving slowly westward for the next 48 hours
under the influence of a weak mid-level ridge over the western
Atlantic. By days 4 and 5, an exceptionally strong blocking ridge
is forecast to develop between Bermuda and the Northeast U.S. and
build westward, keeping Florence on a west-northwestward trajectory
with a notable increase in forward speed by the end of the forecast
period. It feels like a broken record to mention that the overall
guidance envelope keeps shifting southwestward, and the official
forecast is moved in that direction. Unfortunately with such a
large well-defined steering current from the ridge becoming likely,
the extended-range risk to the United States keeps rising, which is
confirmed by the majority of the latest ensemble guidance.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

The threat of a US landfall in about 6 days (maybe 7 depending on speed) continues to grow. NHC 5 am update has the track still aimed squarely at the US SE coast, somewhere between northern FL and NC, with the 5-day track cone implying a likely Day 6 (Thursday night) landfall if the speed is maintained from day 5 to day 6, as the anomalously strong western Atlantic ridge is still forecast to shunt Florence WNW to NW towards the east coast, not allowing it to "escape" out to sea, like almost all storms in Florence's current location eventually would.

In addition, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised, with the now-restrengthening storm (back up to 65 mph and out of the high shear environment it has been in) forecast to be a 145 mph Cat 4 hurricane by 2 am Thursday morning, a day or so before potential landfall. This is because Florence is forecast to travel over perfect conditions for strengthening from Days 3-5, i.e, low shear and anomalously warm sea surface temps in the mid/upper 80s. That's some seriously scary shit.

With regard to the latest major global models below is a summary. Note that none of these models has a significant impact on our area, other than heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion, but it's still quite possible that we eventually see a track much closer to our area, especially if Florence makes a NC landfall and then goes inland and loops towards us as a TS or just remnants with heavy rains. And there are other less ell known models that show a track much closer to our area. We're still at least 7 days out before any track towards us would impact us directly, so people in our area still need to watch closely.

• The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro remains very consistent with a landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach Thursday evening as a probable Cat 3/4 storm (it's had a landfall within 100 miles of this location for at least 4-5 runs). It then goes inland and largely dissipates by Day 10 near West Virginia.
• The 00Z UK (2nd best model) has Florence just off the SC coast, Thursday evening at the end of its model run, poised to make landfall SE of Charleston, SC as a Cat 3/4 storm.
• The 00Z CMC has landfall just south of Savannah Friday evening, but it only shows a Cat 1/2 storm; it's not considered a great tropical model, though. It goes inland and dissipates near AL by Day 10.
• And the 6Z GFS (which just came out) shows a very goofy track, coming within 50 miles of the OBX-NC Thursday evening as a Cat 3/4 storm, but then it misses the coast and does a crazy loop-de-loop over the next 3-4 days, remaining off the NC coast, before shooting NE out to sea on Day 10.

P.S. Helene formed just off the African coast last night and is forecast to graze the Cape Verde Islands on its way to becoming a minimal hurricane, before definitely becoming a fish storm, as it curves north by Day 5. And TD-9 is poised to become Isaac about 500 miles west of Helene and is a much more threatening storm, projected to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane over the next 5 days, when it will be aimed directly at the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean, with a potential landfall there on Day 6 (Thursday) - not sure where it goes from there, but the entire Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico should be concerned. Finally, Olivia in the eastern Pacific is likely to hit the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm in about 4-5 days.

 

[Plum Street]

The threat of a US landfall in about 6 days (maybe 7 depending on speed) continues to grow. NHC 5 am update has the track still aimed squarely at the US SE coast, somewhere between northern FL and NC, with the 5-day track cone implying a likely Day 6 (Thursday night) landfall if the speed is maintained from day 5 to day 6, as the anomalously strong western Atlantic ridge is still forecast to shunt Florence WNW to NW towards the east coast, not allowing it to "escape" out to sea, like almost all storms in Florence's current location eventually would.

In addition, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised, with the now-restrengthening storm (back up to 65 mph and out of the high shear environment it has been in) forecast to be a 145 mph Cat 4 hurricane by 2 am Thursday morning, a day or so before potential landfall. This is because Florence is forecast to travel over perfect conditions for strengthening from Days 3-5, i.e, low shear and anomalously warm sea surface temps in the mid/upper 80s. That's some seriously scary shit.

With regard to the latest major global models below is a summary. Note that none of these models has a significant impact on our area, other than heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion, but it's still quite possible that we eventually see a track much closer to our area, especially if Florence makes a NC landfall and then goes inland and loops towards us as a TS or just remnants with heavy rains. And there are other less ell known models that show a track much closer to our area. We're still at least 7 days out before any track towards us would impact us directly, so people in our area still need to watch closely.

• The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro remains very consistent with a landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach Thursday evening as a probable Cat 3/4 storm (it's had a landfall within 100 miles of this location for at least 4-5 runs). It then goes inland and largely dissipates by Day 10 near West Virginia.
• The 00Z UK (2nd best model) has Florence just off the SC coast, Thursday evening at the end of its model run, poised to make landfall SE of Charleston, SC as a Cat 3/4 storm.
• The 00Z CMC has landfall just south of Savannah Friday evening, but it only shows a Cat 1/2 storm; it's not considered a great tropical model, though. It goes inland and dissipates near AL by Day 10.
• And the 6Z GFS (which just came out) shows a very goofy track, coming within 50 miles of the OBX-NC Thursday evening as a Cat 3/4 storm, but then it misses the coast and does a crazy loop-de-loop over the next 3-4 days, remaining off the NC coast, before shooting NE out to sea on Day 10.

P.S. Helene formed just off the African coast last night and is forecast to graze the Cape Verde Islands on its way to becoming a minimal hurricane, before definitely becoming a fish storm, as it curves north by Day 5. And TD-9 is poised to become Isaac about 500 miles west of Helene and is a much more threatening storm, projected to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane over the next 5 days, when it will be aimed directly at the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean, with a potential landfall there on Day 6 (Thursday) - not sure where it goes from there, but the entire Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico should be concerned. Finally, Olivia in the eastern Pacific is likely to hit the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm in about 4-5 days.

Thanks numbers.
To paraphrase it looks like Florence will have minimal impact to New Jersey as it looks now?

 

[charliem24]

Just want to add my thanks for the updates. I’m in Wilmington NC and the info posted here gives the clearest explanations for what may or may not happen. Guess it’s time to get prepared.
Thanks!

 

[RUBlueLot]

On my way to Corolla for week vacation. Arriving in an hour. Things should get interesting

 

[rurichdog]

Thanks numbers.
To paraphrase it looks like Florence will have minimal impact to New Jersey as it looks now?

Not at all. Remember Floyd and Irene? These tropical leftovers can turn into 8 inch rainfall dumpers that flood us out for a week.

 

[Tango Two]

Here's the latest on Tropical Storm Florence from the National Hurricane Center. While still a tropical storm, Florence is expected to intensify back to hurricane status later today or tonight

 

[RU848789]

Thanks numbers.
To paraphrase it looks like Florence will have minimal impact to New Jersey as it looks now?

Not exactly. What I'd say is that the chances are very low of a direct hit or even a very close call from Florence as a first landfall, since landfall is looking quite likely somewhere from GA to NC. However, what Florence does after landfall is much less certain as it's 1-2 more days out and it's still quite possible Florence strikes the OBX and then comes up near/along 95 or even closer to 81, but both of those scenarios would likely mean heavy to torrential rains for this area and we're already saturated (or will be after the next few days of rain) and the 95 route would likely mean Florence remains a strong tropical storm as it approaches our latitude - could possibly be a Floyd-like scenario, especially if the storm slows down as some models have indicated. But if Florence goes much further inland as the two best models show (euro/UK), then the impacts around here will be minimal. So, NJ still needs to pay attention, as do DelMarVa and PA/LI/New. My apologies if that wasn't clearer.

 

[bac2therac]

DT seems to think minimal impact for our area and New England

 

[RU848789]

The threat of a US landfall in about 6 days (maybe 7 depending on speed) continues to grow. NHC 5 am update has the track still aimed squarely at the US SE coast, somewhere between northern FL and NC, with the 5-day track cone implying a likely Day 6 (Thursday night) landfall if the speed is maintained from day 5 to day 6, as the anomalously strong western Atlantic ridge is still forecast to shunt Florence WNW to NW towards the east coast, not allowing it to "escape" out to sea, like almost all storms in Florence's current location eventually would.

In addition, the NHC intensity forecast has been raised, with the now-restrengthening storm (back up to 65 mph and out of the high shear environment it has been in) forecast to be a 145 mph Cat 4 hurricane by 2 am Thursday morning, a day or so before potential landfall. This is because Florence is forecast to travel over perfect conditions for strengthening from Days 3-5, i.e, low shear and anomalously warm sea surface temps in the mid/upper 80s. That's some seriously scary shit.

With regard to the latest major global models below is a summary. Note that none of these models has a significant impact on our area, other than heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion, but it's still quite possible that we eventually see a track much closer to our area, especially if Florence makes a NC landfall and then goes inland and loops towards us as a TS or just remnants with heavy rains. And there are other less ell known models that show a track much closer to our area. We're still at least 7 days out before any track towards us would impact us directly, so people in our area still need to watch closely.

• The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro remains very consistent with a landfall between Charleston and Myrtle Beach Thursday evening as a probable Cat 3/4 storm (it's had a landfall within 100 miles of this location for at least 4-5 runs). It then goes inland and largely dissipates by Day 10 near West Virginia.
• The 00Z UK (2nd best model) has Florence just off the SC coast, Thursday evening at the end of its model run, poised to make landfall SE of Charleston, SC as a Cat 3/4 storm.
• The 00Z CMC has landfall just south of Savannah Friday evening, but it only shows a Cat 1/2 storm; it's not considered a great tropical model, though. It goes inland and dissipates near AL by Day 10.
• And the 6Z GFS (which just came out) shows a very goofy track, coming within 50 miles of the OBX-NC Thursday evening as a Cat 3/4 storm, but then it misses the coast and does a crazy loop-de-loop over the next 3-4 days, remaining off the NC coast, before shooting NE out to sea on Day 10.

P.S. Helene formed just off the African coast last night and is forecast to graze the Cape Verde Islands on its way to becoming a minimal hurricane, before definitely becoming a fish storm, as it curves north by Day 5. And TD-9 is poised to become Isaac about 500 miles west of Helene and is a much more threatening storm, projected to become a Cat 1/2 hurricane over the next 5 days, when it will be aimed directly at the Lesser Antilles islands of the Caribbean, with a potential landfall there on Day 6 (Thursday) - not sure where it goes from there, but the entire Caribbean and even the Gulf of Mexico should be concerned. Finally, Olivia in the eastern Pacific is likely to hit the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm in about 4-5 days.

The 11 am NHC advisory shows Florence regaining some structure, if not winds, but more importantly, the first hurricane flight into Florence is now showing essentially 70-75 mph winds or just about back to hurricane strength and there are indications the storm is starting to intensify rapidly with greatly reduced shear and warm SSTs. NHC still predicting 140-145 mph winds at Day 5 as the storm approaches the SC/NC coasts, although the cone is now close enough to the coast such that an "escape" to the NE missing the OBX is no longer in their forecast (but not impossible). At this point, landfall somewhere from the FL/GA border to Nags Head is looking very likely, with the somewhat wide bullseye looking to be Savannah to about Cape Hatteras.

Most of the 12Z models, today, moved a bit north of where they were 12 hours ago, by 50-100 miles, with all of them showing Florence to be in the Cat 3/4 range at landfall (except the CMC at Cat 2). The Euro moved from a landfall near Charleston to one near Wilmington, NC, the UK moved from landfall just west of Charleston to about Myrtle Beach, the CMC moved from landfall just south of Savannah to about Charleston and the GFS continued its goofy approach to the OBX and then a 3-4 day loop-de-loop just off the NC coast, followed by jetting NE out to sea. Is this just a correction or are the models detecting something else that might continue a northward trend (like a weakening in that west Atlantic ridge or some impact from 94L)? We'll need a few more model cycles to know.

So a direct hit north of the Outer Banks is looking pretty unlikely (but not impossible yet), but if Florence takes a path on the NE side of the guidance, i.e., a NC landfall, followed by the storm coming up 81 or even 95, impacts in our area could be substantial, especially with regard to torrential rains and flooding, especially given the rains we've had and the rains we expect the next several days and especially if the storm stalls anywhere near us (right now stalls are being seen well to our south for the GFS and Euro), as steering currents are weak next weekend. Winds probably won't be a big deal here, unless the storm just hits far eastern NC and then heads up towards the DelMarVa and NJ (but this is unlikely). There's also a pretty good chance Florence will go far enough inland that impacts here will be minor to minimal. The only sure impacts here are heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion starting early this week. Stay tuned.

 

[greenknight]

Looking at the graph it looks like it's starting to draw in the outflow from the LP into its rotation

 

[RU848789]

Given the general model shift of the track to the NE, as discussed earlier, no surprise that the NHC adjusted their track NE by about 50-60 miles, so instead of being poised to make landfall about halfway between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, the NHC track shows Florence taking aim at Wilmington, NC - at Day 5, Thursday afternoon, the position of Florence is about 75 miles SE of Wilmington with the storm moving NW and the forecast intensity at that point is 140 mph (Cat 4). Yikes.

 

[InGregITrust]

Erik - Central Jersey Jazz Festival all weekend. We're closing George Street on Saturday and performances go from 1-6pm. Will be a blast. Chances of a wash out? Getting our rain plan together....

Given the general model shift of the track to the NE, as discussed earlier, no surprise that the NHC adjusted their track NE by about 50-60 miles, so instead of being poised to make landfall about halfway between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, the NHC track shows Florence taking aim at Wilmington, NC - at Day 5, Thursday afternoon, the position of Florence is about 75 miles SE of Wilmington with the storm moving NW and the forecast intensity at that point is 140 mph (Cat 4). Yikes.

 

[RU848789]

Erik - Central Jersey Jazz Festival all weekend. We're closing George Street on Saturday and performances go from 1-6pm. Will be a blast. Chances of a wash out? Getting our rain plan together....

Too early to tell. Track still too uncertain and potential for a stall still too uncertain. Much better guess by about Monday.

 

[RUHoopsguard]

RU#'s---- Both North (late last night) & South Carolina (this afternoon) have declared State of Emergencies already, but are waiting until Monday to decide on evacuations.
Is this just political, or smart based on today's model runs ?

Thanks.

 

[RU848789]

RU#'s---- Both North (late last night) & South Carolina (this afternoon) have declared State of Emergencies already, but are waiting until Monday to decide on evacuations.
Is this just political, or smart based on today's model runs ?

Thanks.

Smart - the early declaration of a State of Emergency is mostly about allowing these states to move resources around easier (and spend money) to prepare for the hurricane. No need to evacuate 5+ days in advance, especially when the landfall location is still this uncertain. By Monday, we'll be 3 days out from any landfall, so its location will be known much better and that should still be plenty of time for evacuations.

 

[GoodOl'Rutgers]

[EDIT: because someone decided to put a morality test on predicting the path of Florence I have deleted the title of that thread. I think the poster was off-base.. missing the point of the thread and he interjected "death toll predictions" where there was none.. and now I see this thread has become a feud again... but no moral indignation shown here.. no "lives are at stake, why are you doing this back-and-forth sniping?".. so I leave the moral high ground to that poster and his supporters]

 

[RU848789]

Given the general model shift of the track to the NE, as discussed earlier, no surprise that the NHC adjusted their track NE by about 50-60 miles, so instead of being poised to make landfall about halfway between Charleston and Myrtle Beach, the NHC track shows Florence taking aim at Wilmington, NC - at Day 5, Thursday afternoon, the position of Florence is about 75 miles SE of Wilmington with the storm moving NW and the forecast intensity at that point is 140 mph (Cat 4). Yikes.

11 pm advisory is out. Finally, the 5-day track shows a landfall, right on Wilmington, NC, Thursday evening, as a 130 mph storm, after reaching 145 mph the day before. This track is nearly identical to the 5 pm NHC track. Still not clear what happens beyond landfall, however; will wait until after the upcoming 00Z model runs to discuss those wide ranging possibilities.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

And by the way, Isaac is likely to strike the Lesser Antilles Islands in the Carbbean sometime on Thursday as a Cat 1 (maybe Cat 2) hurricane. Helene will brush the Cape Verde Islands and then become a fish storm in the Atlantic.

 

[RU848789]

11 pm advisory is out. Finally, the 5-day track shows a landfall, right on Wilmington, NC, Thursday evening, as a 130 mph storm, after reaching 145 mph the day before. This track is nearly identical to the 5 pm NHC track. Still not clear what happens beyond landfall, however; will wait until after the upcoming 00Z model runs to discuss those wide ranging possibilities.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

And by the way, Isaac is likely to strike the Lesser Antilles Islands in the Carbbean sometime on Thursday as a Cat 1 (maybe Cat 2) hurricane. Helene will brush the Cape Verde Islands and then become a fish storm in the Atlantic.

The 5 AM NHC advisory is out and Florence remains a 70 mph TS, but is forecast to strengthen rapidly to a 100 mph hurricane today and to a 145 mph Cat 4 storm by Wednesday, before making landfall near Wilmington, NC on Thursday late afternoon as a Cat 3/4 hurricane (130-140 mph winds). A direct landfall of a Cat 3/4 hurricane obviously could be catastrophic with regard to winds, storm surge, tornadoes, torrential rains/flooding (from 10-20” of rain, which is possible), etc., so if you live in this area, evacuation should be strongly considered. However, the cone of uncertainty for the track goes from Savannah to just offshore of Nags Head, NC, meaning a very near miss of NC is still possible. With regard to the latest major global models there are two main camps: models that show landfall in SC/NC with a stall inland after landfall and a couple that show the storm just missing the OBX, stalling offshore and then heading out to sea. Below is a summary.

• The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro, the best model, remains very consistent with a landfall just north of the SC/NC border in Wilmington, NC Thursday late afternoon as a probable Cat 3/4 storm. It then goes inland 100-200 miles into central VA bringing torrential rains (10-20") for a couple of days to parts of NC, VA, MD, WV and western PA before retrograding back to NC and dissipating.
• The 00Z UK (2nd best model) made a huge jump from 12 hours ago, from a Myrtle Beach landfall, to a stall about 100 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC.
• The 00Z CMC has landfall near Charleston Friday morning as a Cat 2 storm that then goes inland and dissipates over western SC by next Monday, bringing torrential rains to areas in NC/SC/TN/GA/VA.
• And the 6Z GFS just came out and shows a landfall on the Outer Banks, near Morehead City, NC as a Cat 4/5 storm (but the GFS often overstates hurricane strength) before stalling for a few days in that area; this scenario brings torrential rains (10+ inches) to eastern NC and SE VA.

Note that none of these models has a significant impact on our area, other than heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion, but it's still possible that we eventually see a track much closer to our area, especially if Florence makes a NC landfall and then goes inland and loops towards us as a TS or just remnants with heavy rains. We're still at least 6-7 days out before any track towards us or even inland from us would impact us directly, so people in our area still need to watch closely.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Cone-Florence-Takes-Aim-Southeast-US
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Fearsome-Five-Florence-Helene-Isaac-Olivia-and-Mangkhut
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1404-tropical-storm-florence-70mph-989mb/?page=84

P.S. Isaac is taking aim at the Lesser Antilles with landfall in the central part of that chain around Thursday morning as a Cat 1/2 storm, with the hurricane continuing westward after that, thankfully well south of Puerto Rico - it's not clear if Isaac will make it to Mexico or the Gulf of Mexico as it's anticipated to hit some significant shear, which will likely weaken it before it hits the Lesser Antilles and moreso after that. Helene will brush the SW Cape Verde Islands then remain out to sea to the north. And Olivia will very likely strike the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm on Weds/Thurs, becoming only the 5th tropical system to make landfall on one of the islands in recorded history (2 hurricanes/2 tropical storms).

 

[RU848789]

The 5 AM NHC advisory is out and Florence remains a 70 mph TS, but is forecast to strengthen rapidly to a 100 mph hurricane today and to a 145 mph Cat 4 storm by Wednesday, before making landfall near Wilmington, NC on Thursday late afternoon as a Cat 3/4 hurricane (130-140 mph winds). A direct landfall of a Cat 3/4 hurricane obviously could be catastrophic with regard to winds, storm surge, tornadoes, torrential rains/flooding (from 10-20” of rain, which is possible), etc., so if you live in this area, evacuation should be strongly considered. However, the cone of uncertainty for the track goes from Savannah to just offshore of Nags Head, NC, meaning a very near miss of NC is still possible. With regard to the latest major global models there are two main camps: models that show landfall in SC/NC with a stall inland after landfall and a couple that show the storm just missing the OBX, stalling offshore and then heading out to sea. Below is a summary.

• The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro, the best model, remains very consistent with a landfall just north of the SC/NC border in Wilmington, NC Thursday late afternoon as a probable Cat 3/4 storm. It then goes inland 100-200 miles into central VA bringing torrential rains (10-20") for a couple of days to parts of NC, VA, MD, WV and western PA before retrograding back to NC and dissipating.
• The 00Z UK (2nd best model) made a huge jump from 12 hours ago, from a Myrtle Beach landfall, to a stall about 100 miles SSE of Cape Hatteras, NC.
• The 00Z CMC has landfall near Charleston Friday morning as a Cat 2 storm that then goes inland and dissipates over western SC by next Monday, bringing torrential rains to areas in NC/SC/TN/GA/VA.
• And the 6Z GFS just came out and shows a landfall on the Outer Banks, near Morehead City, NC as a Cat 4/5 storm (but the GFS often overstates hurricane strength) before stalling for a few days in that area; this scenario brings torrential rains (10+ inches) to eastern NC and SE VA.

Note that none of these models has a significant impact on our area, other than heavy surf, riptides and beach erosion, but it's still possible that we eventually see a track much closer to our area, especially if Florence makes a NC landfall and then goes inland and loops towards us as a TS or just remnants with heavy rains. We're still at least 6-7 days out before any track towards us or even inland from us would impact us directly, so people in our area still need to watch closely.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Cone-Florence-Takes-Aim-Southeast-US
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Fearsome-Five-Florence-Helene-Isaac-Olivia-and-Mangkhut
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1404-tropical-storm-florence-70mph-989mb/?page=84

P.S. Isaac is taking aim at the Lesser Antilles with landfall in the central part of that chain around Thursday morning as a Cat 1/2 storm, with the hurricane continuing westward after that, thankfully well south of Puerto Rico - it's not clear if Isaac will make it to Mexico or the Gulf of Mexico as it's anticipated to hit some significant shear, which will likely weaken it before it hits the Lesser Antilles and moreso after that. Helene will brush the SW Cape Verde Islands then remain out to sea to the north. And Olivia will very likely strike the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm on Weds/Thurs, becoming only the 5th tropical system to make landfall on one of the islands in recorded history (2 hurricanes/2 tropical storms).

The 11 am NHC advisory shows that Florence is finally back to hurricane strength, with winds up to 75 mph and signs of significant intensification going on - especially the fact that the current hurricane hunter flight declined to do one of its passes due to extreme shear, a sign of rapid intensification.

The forecast track is unchanged with landfall predicted as a Cat 3/4 storm with 130-140 mph winds near Wilmington, NC late Thursday night, but keep in mind the forecast cone includes from Hilton Head, SC to Norfolk, VA. Clearly interests within 50-75 miles of Wilmington, in particular, need to be ready for a landfalling major hurricane, with major storm surge, winds, torrential rains, and possible tornadoes. Note that the 11 am advisory did not have the output from the 12Z models, discussed below.

Today's 12Z models continue to show variable outcomes. The Euro continues to show remarkable consistency with a landfalling cat 3/4 storm late Thursday night and the HWRF (the hurricane weather research forecasting model - a very good hurricane model from NOAA) shows a similar solution, while the UK shows landfall near Cape Hatteras on Thursday night as a cat 2/3 storm. Both the CMC and GFS show Florence almost making landfall on the Outer Banks, but then show the storm stalling just off the NC coast and meandering near the coast for 2-3 days before either going inland into NC and then back out to sea (CMC) or simply going out to sea (GFS).

It's important to note that all of the major models continue to show minimal impact from DE NE through NJ/NYC/LI/New England other than heavy surf/erosion effects. This is due to that highly anomalous ridge (high pressure) I've been talking about for days, which is expected to continue shunting Florence W to NW along the ridge's southern periphery from now through landfall. In addition, it's expected that that ridge will remain strong enough to not allow Florence to come northward to our area, with the storm either dissipating inland as per some models or to eventually head NE out to sea beyond Day 10 (GFS/CMC). That could change, but it's becoming very unlikely.

 

[newell138]

Looking at the graph it looks like it's starting to draw in the outflow from the LP into its rotation

That’s what she said

 

[DJ Spanky]

Florence is starting to look excited!

 

[RU848789]

I don't typically like to show single model runs with extreme solutions, as they can be perceived as hype, but the Euro is easily the best global model for hurricanes and it has been remarkably consistent with its prediction of track and intensity so far (and been quite accurate - and has aligned nearly perfectly with the NHC forecast). With that as intro, if the model's depiction of Florence hitting near Wilmington and then slowing/stalling 100-150 miles NW of Wilmington is anywhere near correct, we're talking about catastrophic rainfall amounts.

Below is the Euro model total precip from Florence from now through next Monday, with >90% of the precip coming from Florence, especially in NC/VA, where 20-30" of rain could fall. As bad as a Cat 3/4 landfalling hurricane would be, the rainfall could end up being the bigger story, a la Harvey last year. People should be hoping for the GFS/CMC solution, where Florence stalls, but off the NC coast, which will hammer the OBX, but that's a much smaller area than much of NC and VA. I have family in Charlotte and Raleigh (niece with twin baby boys and nephew; mom and sister moved out of Charlotte 2 yeas ago to Vero) and have told them to pay close attention and consider evacuating if the Euro looks like it's going to verify.

 

[RUPete]

Virginia really got hammered with rain this summer. They don’t need anymore.

 

[RUDiddy777]

I don't typically like to show single model runs with extreme solutions, as they can be perceived as hype, but the Euro is easily the best global model for hurricanes and it has been remarkably consistent with its prediction of track and intensity so far (and been quite accurate - and has aligned nearly perfectly with the NHC forecast). With that as intro, if the model's depiction of Florence hitting near Wilmington and then slowing/stalling 100-150 miles NW of Wilmington is anywhere near correct, we're talking about catastrophic rainfall amounts.

Below is the Euro model total precip from Florence from now through next Monday, with >90% of the precip coming from Florence, especially in NC/VA, where 20-30" of rain could fall. As bad as a Cat 3/4 landfalling hurricane would be, the rainfall could end up being the bigger story, a la Harvey last year. People should be hoping for the GFS/CMC solution, where Florence stalls, but off the NC coast, which will hammer the OBX, but that's a much smaller area than much of NC and VA. I have family in Charlotte and Raleigh (niece with twin baby boys and nephew; mom and sister moved out of Charlotte 2 yeas ago to Vero) and have told them to pay close attention and consider evacuating if the Euro looks like it's going to verify.

Christ.

 

[knightfan7]

I don't typically like to show single model runs with extreme solutions, as they can be perceived as hype, but the Euro is easily the best global model for hurricanes and it has been remarkably consistent with its prediction of track and intensity so far (and been quite accurate - and has aligned nearly perfectly with the NHC forecast). With that as intro, if the model's depiction of Florence hitting near Wilmington and then slowing/stalling 100-150 miles NW of Wilmington is anywhere near correct, we're talking about catastrophic rainfall amounts.

Below is the Euro model total precip from Florence from now through next Monday, with >90% of the precip coming from Florence, especially in NC/VA, where 20-30" of rain could fall. As bad as a Cat 3/4 landfalling hurricane would be, the rainfall could end up being the bigger story, a la Harvey last year. People should be hoping for the GFS/CMC solution, where Florence stalls, but off the NC coast, which will hammer the OBX, but that's a much smaller area than much of NC and VA. I have family in Charlotte and Raleigh (niece with twin baby boys and nephew; mom and sister moved out of Charlotte 2 yeas ago to Vero) and have told them to pay close attention and consider evacuating if the Euro looks like it's going to verify.

NWS has Isaac losing strength as it heads south of PR - DR/Haiti Would it still be a likely Hurricane down the road?

 

[Tango Two]

Hurricane Florence is now a Category 1 storm with sustained winds of 75 mph. It is expected to continue strengthening into a major hurricane over the next few days as it begins approaching the East Coast late this week. Please keep a close eye on the forecast over the next few days. Now is the time to plan and prepare for potential impacts from this storm. Attached is the current forecast and key messages from the NHC as of 11am EDT. Visit NHC's webstie for the latest information: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

 

[Rutgers1976]

Just want to add my thanks for the updates. I’m in Wilmington NC and the info posted here gives the clearest explanations for what may or may not happen. Guess it’s time to get prepared.
Thanks!

Charlie: We were down in your area a few weeks ago and were looking at developments in the Leland area for future reference so to speak. Would love to hear your take on the Leland/Wilmington area (aside from the current hurricane threat)

 

[RUBigFrank]

Five PM projected path is in:

 

[greenknight]

Still think it swings more northerly to outer banks. I know the ridge is pushing down but if it starts bending more west-northwest still think theres more bend in it towards Wilmington at northermost

 

[Goku]

Thank you for the updates, guys

 

[RU4Real]

On my way back home from Gainesville and drove through the Carolinas this afternoon. From the perspective of I-95 it doesn't look like there's a lot of preps going on, but to be fair the interstate at Wilmington's latitude is a good 30+ miles from the ocean.

On a sad note, there is NOTHING to eat in Stony Creek, VA. And we can't really go out exploring for food because I-95 southbound is shut down 8 miles south of here for an MVA and the traffic has the area choked off.

Looks like it's gonna be Popeye's...

 

[RUinPinehurst]

Five PM projected path is in:

That "S" is right on top of Pinehurst. Terrrrrrrific!

 

[wisr01]

That "S" is right on top of Pinehurst. Terrrrrrrific!

 

[RU848789]

The 11 am NHC advisory shows that Florence is finally back to hurricane strength, with winds up to 75 mph and signs of significant intensification going on - especially the fact that the current hurricane hunter flight declined to do one of its passes due to extreme shear, a sign of rapid intensification.

The forecast track is unchanged with landfall predicted as a Cat 3/4 storm with 130-140 mph winds near Wilmington, NC late Thursday night, but keep in mind the forecast cone includes from Hilton Head, SC to Norfolk, VA. Clearly interests within 50-75 miles of Wilmington, in particular, need to be ready for a landfalling major hurricane, with major storm surge, winds, torrential rains, and possible tornadoes. Note that the 11 am advisory did not have the output from the 12Z models, discussed below.

Today's 12Z models continue to show variable outcomes. The Euro continues to show remarkable consistency with a landfalling cat 3/4 storm late Thursday night and the HWRF (the hurricane weather research forecasting model - a very good hurricane model from NOAA) shows a similar solution, while the UK shows landfall near Cape Hatteras on Thursday night as a cat 2/3 storm. Both the CMC and GFS show Florence almost making landfall on the Outer Banks, but then show the storm stalling just off the NC coast and meandering near the coast for 2-3 days before either going inland into NC and then back out to sea (CMC) or simply going out to sea (GFS).

It's important to note that all of the major models continue to show minimal impact from DE NE through NJ/NYC/LI/New England other than heavy surf/erosion effects. This is due to that highly anomalous ridge (high pressure) I've been talking about for days, which is expected to continue shunting Florence W to NW along the ridge's southern periphery from now through landfall. In addition, it's expected that that ridge will remain strong enough to not allow Florence to come northward to our area, with the storm either dissipating inland as per some models or to eventually head NE out to sea beyond Day 10 (GFS/CMC). That could change, but it's becoming very unlikely.

5 pm NHC updated map, below, with Florence starting to strengthen rapidly with winds up to 85 mph (vs. 75 mph 6 hours ago). Florence is expected to still make landfall Thursday night near Wilmington, NC as a Cat 4 hurricane with winds of close to 140 mph (and reaching 150 mph before weakening a bit before landfall). The NHC did add this ominous sounding warning, though:

"There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials."

 

[RUBigFrank]

The S over Pinehurst was previously and H - I would say that is an improvement.

 

[RU848789]

The S over Pinehurst was previously and H - I would say that is an improvement.

Actually that's not the case. The S (70 mph winds) in the 5 pm advisory is for a location about 40 miles NW of the H (85 mph winds) in the 11 am forecast, as it's 6 hours later and Florence will weaken rapidly once over land. The 5 pm advisory actually predicts Florence to be a stronger storm before and at landfall (first time we've seen 150 mph winds forecast for Florence). Not good.

 

[RU848789]

Still think it swings more northerly to outer banks. I know the ridge is pushing down but if it starts bending more west-northwest still think theres more bend in it towards Wilmington at northermost

Definitely a possibility still, as the GFS shows this in the new 6Z model run (and the 4-5 day accuracy scores for the GFS have been pretty good for Florence): it hits around Cape Hatteras and just stalls for a few days just inland.

 

[charliem24]

Charlie: We were down in your area a few weeks ago and were looking at developments in the Leland area for future reference so to speak. Would love to hear your take on the Leland/Wilmington area (aside from the current hurricane threat)

Hey RU1776, we actually live in Leland in Brunswick Forest. Moved down from NJ about 3 years ago and love it. Shoot me a message with any questions, be happy to share our experience.

 

[RUinPinehurst]

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We're well inland. Terrific drainage here in the Sandhills. Should Flo visit, we would expect downed trees, limbs, power outage, etc.

But Charliem24 down in Leland, near Wilmington? Sheeesh....

 

[wisr01]

We're well inland. Terrific drainage here in the Sandhills. Should Flo visit, we would expect downed trees, limbs, power outage, etc.

But Charliem24 down in Leland, near Wilmington? Sheeesh....

So I take it you won't be evacuating?