Negative. We're 125 miles inland. Folks from the southern coast usually head our way (via I-74) when they evacuate, or they scoot up toward Raleigh (via I-40).
OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14
- Thread starter RU848789
- Start date
Negative. We're 125 miles inland. Folks from the southern coast usually head our way (via I-74) when they evacuate, or they scoot up toward Raleigh (via I-40).
Yea, probably getting out of Dodge Wednesday, either Charlotte or Richmond VA depending on the track if the storm, but I’m thinking Charlotte should be safe enough.
Not sure about how to shoot messages in here--haven't figured it out yet. Drove through the Brunswick Forest and it was very nice. Also liked Compass Point a lot.
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Good luck guys. If Florence follows the NHC forecast, not sure which will be worse - a Cat 4 landfalling hurricane in Wilmington with ~10" of rain) or 20+ inches of rain in Pinehurst. Probably the landfalling hurricane, but the flooding rains could be Harvey like inland. Let's hope this somehow misses the coast...
That's pretty much been my thinking, when Mathew came through the flooding inland was devastating and some areas still haven't come back. Any guidance on the storm track when we get to Tuesday into Wednesday morning would be greatly appreciated. I know you are synthesizing NOAA and the NHL , but your explanationame are a bug help.
5 pm NHC updated map, below, with Florence starting to strengthen rapidly with winds up to 85 mph (vs. 75 mph 6 hours ago). Florence is expected to still make landfall Thursday night near Wilmington, NC as a Cat 4 hurricane with winds of close to 140 mph (and reaching 150 mph before weakening a bit before landfall). The NHC did add this ominous sounding warning, though:
"There is an increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland. While it is too soon to
determine the exact timing, location, and magnitude of these
impacts, interests at the coast and inland from South Carolina into
the mid-Atlantic region should closely monitor the progress of
Florence, ensure they have their hurricane plan in place, and follow
any advice given by local officials."
Florence continues to strengthen (up to 90 mph and an eyewall is starting to form). No significant track or wind forecast changes with the 11 pm NHC advisory: sitll has Florence making landfall Thursday evening near Wilmington, NC with ~140 mph winds and then going inland about 50-100 miles by Friday night, likely bringing catastrophic rains.
Thanks for posting the map Tango. This gives me hope that Florence will miss us in Hilton Head and we’ll be able to fly into SAV on Friday 9.14. Currently we’re in Park City one of our favorite places.
Most useful post in this thread, great visual. Thanks!
[thumb2]
Virginia's got a ton of rain recently, so if they get a lot of rain out of this storm they are gonna have serious problems.
This is a serious, life-threatening storm. Can you stop trolling it, please (it's a video of one model output and not the best model so it's marginally useful)? It just clutters the thread up. Thanks, in advance.
Interesting data showing most hurricane deaths are caused by storm surge (49%) or rainfall/flooding (27%); high winds are only responsible for 8% of deaths, but winds always get the attention.
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/us-deaths-hurricanes-tropical-storms-nhc-study
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane/news/us-deaths-hurricanes-tropical-storms-nhc-study
Florence continues to strengthen (up to 90 mph and an eyewall is starting to form). No significant track or wind forecast changes with the 11 pm NHC advisory: sitll has Florence making landfall Thursday evening near Wilmington, NC with ~140 mph winds and then going inland about 50-100 miles by Friday night, likely bringing catastrophic rains.
The 5 AM NHC advisory is out and Florence has begun her forecasted rapid intensification, having gone from 70 mph, 24 hours ago, to 105 mph now and the forecast calls for Florence to reach 150 mph in 3 days and to make landfall Thursday night as a Cat 4 storm with ~140 mph winds, near Wilmington, NC (no change from yesterday's track).
After that, unfortunately, Florence is predicted to slow down and even stall about 100-150 miles inland, somewhere near Greensboro, NC, bringing catastrophic rainfalls of 10-30" over a wide swath of NC and VA. A direct landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane obviously would be catastrophic with regard to winds, storm surge, tornadoes, torrential rains/flooding, etc., so if you live in Floence's path, including inland where the heaviest rains will likely fall, as this situation could become Harvey-like, evacuation should be strongly considered.
Keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty for the track to landfall has narrowed, as we're getting closer to landfall, and now goes from about just SE of Charleston to about Nags Head, NC, meaning an out-to-sea track is no longer in the cards. However, the variability in the models post-landfall is greater, with the stall forecast to occur anywhere from Asheville, NC to Richmond, VA (vs. the NHC prediction of near Greensboro, NC), meaning the location of the torrential rains after landfall is still up in the air. With regard to the latest major global models, we're now getting close to consensus, at least with regard to landfall.
- The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro, the best model, nudged landfall south about 30 miles from Wilmington, NC to the SC/NC border late Thursday evening, as a probable Cat 3/4 storm. It then goes inland, slowly, to about Asheville over the next 2 days and dissipates, after bringing torrential rains (10-30") to parts of eastern SC, western NC, and SE VA.
- The 00Z UK (2nd best model) makes landfall around Cape Hatteras Thursday night and also slows and then stalls, like the Euro, except near Richmond, VA, meaning the torrential rains would be in eastern NC and VA, perhaps up to southern MD/DE.
- The 00Z CMC has landfall near Cape Fear Thursday night as a Cat 2 storm that then stalls right at the coast for several days bringing torrential rains to eastern NC mainly.
- And the 00Z GFS shows a landfall near Cape Hatteras as a Cat 4 storm, before stalling for a few days in eastern NC; this scenario brings torrential rains (10-30") to eastern NC and eastern VA up into southern MD/DE.
P.S. Isaac is taking aim at the Lesser Antilles with landfall in the central part of that chain around Thursday morning as a Cat 1 storm and continuing westward after that, thankfully well south of Puerto Rico, and weakening to a tropical storm, due to shear, as it moves westward through the Caribbean towards Mexico, It's not clear if Isaac will make it to Mexico or the Gulf of Mexico as it's anticipated to hit some significant shear, which will weaken it further and possibly kill it.
Hurricane Helene makes 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic Baisn, which is pretty rare; Helene, though, is a fish storm, forecast to move north in the eastern Atlantic until it eventually becomes extratropical and heads towards Europe. Finally, Olivia is forecast to take a WSW track right through the center of the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm on Wednesday morning, becoming only the 5th tropical system to make landfall on one of the islands in recorded history (2 hurricanes/2 tropical storms).
Here are the usual links to great weather sources, like the NHC, Wunderground and the 33andrain message board thread on Florence...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/140...mph-975mb/?page=97&tab=comments#comment-93681
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The other board has nobody but you commenting. Maybe you should stick to TOS
That's the free board, which is pretty dead - plenty of commentary, including from a few pros, on the premium site thread over there and no troll posts. Will take pros over trolls any day. Maybe you should stick to other threads.
Looks like someone thinks they own a thread again. LOL
Still don't get why people crap on #s - honestly, his input on weather boards is one of the best points of value this free board has.
Miserable people just like to try to make other people miserable, I guess.
Miserable people just like to try to make other people miserable, I guess.
Sunrise on Florence (hope this shows up)...
Thank you for your insight RU#s! When I was in Jacksonville my hurricane plans went out the window due to traffic and a wrong turn. As a result I turned back and was left with no food were it not for the kindness of neighbors. I would suggest to anyone on the coast to evacuate as soon as possible. I also did not live in a flood zone that was a flood zone. Sandbags saved the day and I always have them available.
#'s does a great job - please do not let these yenta's bother you.
Well, to recap:
- Tango posted a video which received multiple compliments from posters.
- #'s slams the video that others appreciated, calls one of the complimenters a troll, and asks for his thread not to be cluttered.
Obviously those three posters have a history with each other, which makes #s complete overreaction more understandable. Throw in a mod who's behaved inappropriately for years and it gets even more complicated.
It's not just this incident, it's a pattern - some people make it a point to crap on #s in weather threads. He consistently brings value to this (free!) board, and they consistently snipe (boo to value! boo!). Makes no sense.
And when people have asked him to accommodate them to enhance their value (new thread for each storm, changing the title of the thread, etc), he's frequently done so. Glad he continues to post despite all the flak - but jaysus it must be hard sometimes.
The 5 AM NHC advisory is out and Florence has begun her forecasted rapid intensification, having gone from 70 mph, 24 hours ago, to 105 mph now and the forecast calls for Florence to reach 150 mph in 3 days and to make landfall Thursday night as a Cat 4 storm with ~140 mph winds, near Wilmington, NC (no change from yesterday's track).
After that, unfortunately, Florence is predicted to slow down and even stall about 100-150 miles inland, somewhere near Greensboro, NC, bringing catastrophic rainfalls of 10-30" over a wide swath of NC and VA. A direct landfall of a Cat 4 hurricane obviously would be catastrophic with regard to winds, storm surge, tornadoes, torrential rains/flooding, etc., so if you live in Floence's path, including inland where the heaviest rains will likely fall, as this situation could become Harvey-like, evacuation should be strongly considered.
Keep in mind that the cone of uncertainty for the track to landfall has narrowed, as we're getting closer to landfall, and now goes from about just SE of Charleston to about Nags Head, NC, meaning an out-to-sea track is no longer in the cards. However, the variability in the models post-landfall is greater, with the stall forecast to occur anywhere from Asheville, NC to Richmond, VA (vs. the NHC prediction of near Greensboro, NC), meaning the location of the torrential rains after landfall is still up in the air. With regard to the latest major global models, we're now getting close to consensus, at least with regard to landfall.
It's important to note that all of the major models continue to show minimal impact from about Baltimore NE through NJ/NYC/LI/New England other than heavy surf/erosion effects. This is due to that highly anomalous ridge (high pressure) people have been talking about for days, which is expected to continue shunting Florence W to NW along the ridge's southern periphery from now through landfall. In addition, it's expected that that ridge will remain strong enough to not allow Florence to come northward to our area, with the storm either dissipating inland as per some models or to eventually head NE out to sea beyond Day 10. That could change, but it's becoming very unlikely.
- The 00Z (data input 7 pm EST last night) Euro, the best model, nudged landfall south about 30 miles from Wilmington, NC to the SC/NC border late Thursday evening, as a probable Cat 3/4 storm. It then goes inland, slowly, to about Asheville over the next 2 days and dissipates, after bringing torrential rains (10-30") to parts of eastern SC, western NC, and SE VA.
- The 00Z UK (2nd best model) makes landfall around Cape Hatteras Thursday night and also slows and then stalls, like the Euro, except near Richmond, VA, meaning the torrential rains would be in eastern NC and VA, perhaps up to southern MD/DE.
- The 00Z CMC has landfall near Cape Fear Thursday night as a Cat 2 storm that then stalls right at the coast for several days bringing torrential rains to eastern NC mainly.
- And the 00Z GFS shows a landfall near Cape Hatteras as a Cat 4 storm, before stalling for a few days in eastern NC; this scenario brings torrential rains (10-30") to eastern NC and eastern VA up into southern MD/DE.
P.S. Isaac is taking aim at the Lesser Antilles with landfall in the central part of that chain around Thursday morning as a Cat 1 storm and continuing westward after that, thankfully well south of Puerto Rico, and weakening to a tropical storm, due to shear, as it moves westward through the Caribbean towards Mexico, It's not clear if Isaac will make it to Mexico or the Gulf of Mexico as it's anticipated to hit some significant shear, which will weaken it further and possibly kill it.
Hurricane Helene makes 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic Baisn, which is pretty rare; Helene, though, is a fish storm, forecast to move north in the eastern Atlantic until it eventually becomes extratropical and heads towards Europe. Finally, Olivia is forecast to take a WSW track right through the center of the Hawaiian Islands as a strong tropical storm on Wednesday morning, becoming only the 5th tropical system to make landfall on one of the islands in recorded history (2 hurricanes/2 tropical storms).
Here are the usual links to great weather sources, like the NHC, Wunderground and the 33andrain message board thread on Florence...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6
https://www.33andrain.com/topic/140...mph-975mb/?page=97&tab=comments#comment-93681
11 am NHC advisory shows Florence continuing to strengthen rapidly with winds up to 115 mph (cat 3). No changes to the track or intensity forecast, with Florence predicted to strike around Wilmington, NC Thursday night with winds around 140 mph (cat 4).
After that the forecast slows Florence down as it moves inland, NW of the coast, almost stalling the storm near Greensboro, NC by Saturday morning (as a tropical depression with torrential rains mostly). The landfall forecast is still +/- about 100 miles, while the inland slowdown/stall location at Day 5 is +/- close to 200 miles, so a large area could potentially be impacted with the torrential rains of 10-20" (locally up to 30").
My recollection is that last year in a tweet a reporter for the NYT cited this board as the best place for insight on tropical storm activity. Our esteem poster known as #'s is THE most significant source specific to weather threads. Please get off his case.
If the NHC track verifies, our area may get no rain at all, so the only impacts would be high surf, beach erosion and riptides for the next several days. However, there's still enough uncertainty on where the storm slows/stalls, such that it could be more in eastern/central VA vs. central NC, which would bring several inches of rain to our area. The chances of the track bringing the storm/remnants closer to our area, bringing major rainfall and high winds are getting close to zero (but not yet zero, as stranger things have happened than that).
