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OT: Tropics more active...Florence to make NC/SC landfall on 9/14

Hurricane hunters just went through Florence and have found 130 mph winds at the surface, so the storm has been upgraded to a Cat 4 storm, as per below. Interesting that they're saying Cat 4, when Cat 4 is 131-156 mph (and the winds are 130 mph); probably because it'll be Cat 4 shortly anyway.

Hurricane Florence Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1200 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018

...FLORENCE BECOMES A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Florence
has continued to rapidly stregthen and has maximum sustained winds
near 130 mph (195 km/h). The latest minimum central pressure based
on data from the aircraft is 946 mb (27.93 inches).


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM AST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 60.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1230 MI...1985 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.93 INCHES

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/101556.shtml?
 
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Well, to recap:

  1. Tango posted a video which received multiple compliments from posters.
  2. #'s slams the video that others appreciated, calls one of the complimenters a troll, and asks for his thread not to be cluttered.
Seems pretty clear-cut based on this thread alone.

Obviously those three posters have a history with each other, which makes #s complete overreaction more understandable. Throw in a mod who's behaved inappropriately for years and it gets even more complicated.

Might want to go back further in the thread. T2K has made multiple subtle trolling posts in this thread, which I've mostly ignored, when Florence was far away. But last night he praised Tango's post of a video of the GFS model forecast, which was made without any context/explanation, that many could have been misled by, since the video showed Florence stalling off the OBX without any landfall (the GFS is generally a subpar model), which was very different from the official NHC forecast at that time.

Tango has made many good posts in this thread, but that wasn't one of them so I made a point of it and called T out as a troll for praising it. I probably should have left T out of it, but I didn't want people thinking the GFS video was something to rely on or cite. So it's not just ancient history. Tango also erred in merging my original thread, with the one started well after mine by ProudNJguy.

And now I'm contributing to the clutter. Sorry folks - just wanted to set the record straight.
 
The storm bound for North Carolina—is going to be about the size of North Carolina when it arrives. This is what it will look like, according to the latest high-res model prediction.




41497345_1962706413772935_6836731660487098368_o.jpg

Great shot. For those who don't know, the HWRF is an excellent hurricane model from NOAA (hurricane weather research and forecasting). Scary stuff.
 
A quote from famed met, Joe Bastardi, who often hypes things, but is still a very good meterologist, as per the linked post, where he shows how he was predicting this kind of tropical activity while it was still pretty quiet. Certainly ominous words.

"I made a comment yesterday saying there is not much more I can add on Florence because there isn't I expect our forecast to be right, or close enough that I am not making wild swings, I said last week that I would wait till Wednesday if I was going to make any big changes. I think I have been as extreme as can be from a distance. And so if other forecasts say the same thing, what else more can I say,

The fact is the forecast is for the worst disaster on record to hit the Carolinas."

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1407-say-something-once-why-say-it-again/

 
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Well, to recap:

  1. Tango posted a video which received multiple compliments from posters.
  2. #'s slams the video that others appreciated, calls one of the complimenters a troll, and asks for his thread not to be cluttered.
Seems pretty clear-cut based on this thread alone.

Obviously those three posters have a history with each other, which makes #s complete overreaction more understandable. Throw in a mod who's behaved inappropriately for years and it gets even more complicated.

I have no opinion on the ongoing battle between #s and other posters, however, I did not find that video at all useful because it is an alarmist view of one possible outcome. A video like that is most commonly used (at least as far as I am aware) after a storm has happened to show its' actual track, intensity, timing, etc. When in the forecasting state it is not common to use radar views like that but more the colored lines on a map with multiple possible outcomes, or the old cone of uncertainty on where the storm could go. Most of the posts in this thread do that, that one did not.
 
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I have no opinion on the ongoing battle between #s and other posters, however, I did not find that video at all useful because it is an alarmist view of one possible outcome. A video like that is most commonly used (at least as far as I am aware) after a storm has happened to show its' actual track, intensity, timing, etc. When in the forecasting state it is not common to use radar views like that but more the colored lines on a map with multiple possible outcomes, or the old cone of uncertainty on where the storm could go. Most of the posts in this thread do that, that one did not.
Come on now.. use your imagination.

If you were forced at gunpoint to come up with a way such a video could be "useful".. what would that be?

Here's my take... the experts publish the results on so many model runs as lines, do they not? Are they "alarmist"? Only one of those lines might be correct, if that.

Each one of those lines provides possible long range warning of what may occur. The video posted was just an animation of one of those model runs.

It is not "useless"... just like the multiple lines in the static image of the model runs is not "useless".

You have to inject your own biases and inferences in order to have such a strong reaction to the posting of that video.
 
11 am NHC advisory shows Florence continuing to strengthen rapidly with winds up to 115 mph (cat 3). No changes to the track or intensity forecast, with Florence predicted to strike around Wilmington, NC Thursday night with winds around 140 mph (cat 4).

After that the forecast slows Florence down as it moves inland, NW of the coast, almost stalling the storm near Greensboro, NC by Saturday morning (as a tropical depression with torrential rains mostly). The landfall forecast is still +/- about 100 miles, while the inland slowdown/stall location at Day 5 is +/- close to 200 miles, so a large area could potentially be impacted with the torrential rains of 10-20" (locally up to 30").

41435188_10214629197837666_3107784321876885504_n.jpg

So, the 12Z (7 am EST data inputs) model suite is now in and the Euro, UK and HWRF, the 3 best hurricane models, are all clustered around a Wilmington to Cape Hatteras (Okracoke) landfall Thursday night, of a Cat 3/4 hurricane, which is about a 75 mile spread, which is impressive consensus; specifically, the Euro shows a Wilmington landfall, while the UK and HWRF are closer to Morehead City/Hatteras. All 3 then show Florence moving inland 100-200 miles and stalliing, then dissipating after putting down at least 10-20" of rain (and up to 30" locally); this could be mostly interior NC or NC and VA, depending on which outcome is correct - the flooding will likely be catastrophic where rains that heavy fall. People in NE SC should not let their guard down, as a landfall there is still quite possible.

However, the GFS has gone back to its earlier idea of a very close approach to the OBX, followed by 3-4 days of meandering as a major hurricane, just off the coast, before going inland and mostly dissipating (although the remnants do jet out to sea mid next week), putting down 10-20" of rain in eastern NC/VA and hammering the coast for several days. The CMC is similar to the GFS, but these two models are generally considered inferior to the three above. But in meteorology, sometimes the better models are not correct, so the GFS/CMC solution can't be ruled out completely.

None of these solutions has any major impact for NJ/NY/LI other than heavy surf, erosion and riptides. If the Euro/UK are correct, we won't even get any rain, while if the GFS turns out to be right there could be a few inches of rain early next week.
 
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None of these solutions has any major impact for NJ/NY/LI other than heavy surf, erosion and riptides. If the Euro/UK are correct, we won't even get any rain, while if the GFS turns out to be right there could be a few inches of rain early next week.

At this point, should I have any reason to worry about my flight out of PHL Thursday night? Heavy winds in the area possible?
 
Whats the latest guess for outdoor activities on Sunday morning in central NJ (a real place)

If the NHC track for Florence verifies, we would likely have a decent weekend with highs in the upper 70s and some clouds and sun both days, although a brief shower or two can't be ruled out for Sunday. If the much lower probability GFS model verifies, we could get more substantial rains by Sunday/Monday. Extremely low chance of Florence actually coming within 200 miles of New Brunswick.
 
And don't look now, but there is now the chance that an area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean near the Yucatan will develop into a tropical storm (Joyce) once it's in the SW Gulf of Mexico. If this occurs, the Mexico and TX/LA coasts would be threatened by such a storm in about 5-6 days, with heavy rain being the biggest threat, assuming it doesn't become a hurricane.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

41522459_10214630284384829_8513237501274488832_n.jpg
 
Come on now.. use your imagination.

If you were forced at gunpoint to come up with a way such a video could be "useful".. what would that be?

Here's my take... the experts publish the results on so many model runs as lines, do they not? Are they "alarmist"? Only one of those lines might be correct, if that.

Each one of those lines provides possible long range warning of what may occur. The video posted was just an animation of one of those model runs.

It is not "useless"... just like the multiple lines in the static image of the model runs is not "useless".

You have to inject your own biases and inferences in order to have such a strong reaction to the posting of that video.

Sorry, no responsible expert/met would publish a video of one very low probability model outcome without any commentary or context, as was done here - that would be irresponsible. Yes, pros show outputs from multiple models, but will usually show those with the other more likely outcomes and will provide commentary about the outlier model output being a low probability. The outlier model isn't useless, per se, but it is useless and misleading without commentary/context.

Sure, this isn't a weather board, and people should probably be going to the NHC and other sources first, but like it or not, some do come here first (as several have posted), so why potentially confuse them?
 
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I'm taking my son to race in the BMX GOld Cup regional championship in Akron OH Saturday morning. I'm guessing it could be lousy.
 
I'm taking my son to race in the BMX GOld Cup regional championship in Akron OH Saturday morning. I'm guessing it could be lousy.

Actually, Akron should have nice, warm weather on Saturday, unless there's some huge change in Florence's forecast, as the storm will slow/stall too far from Akron to have any impact there.
 
Mandatory evacuations have been issued entire coast of South Carolina due to Florence Evacuations will begin at noon on Tuesday.

Yeah, they just had the Governor on TV and I was surprised they extended the mandatory evacuations from Charleston SW-ward, which is a lower probability landfall location. I get the concern for areas within maybe 100 miles of the Wilmington, NC NHC landfall prediction, i.e., down to about 25 miles NE of Charleston, but beyond there seems overkill. They could've easily had mandatory evacuations down to close to Charleston and voluntary ones from Charleston to GA - which could've easily been converted to mandatory evacuations if the forecast changed significantly by tomorrow - because if the forecast is still the same tomorrow, the error bars will be much smaller and most of SC will outside of the NHC track cone. But they're not paying me, lol.
 
Yeah, they just had the Governor on TV and I was surprised they extended the mandatory evacuations from Charleston SW-ward, which is a lower probability landfall location. I get the concern for areas within maybe 100 miles of the Wilmington, NC NHC landfall prediction, i.e., down to about 25 miles NE of Charleston, but beyond there seems overkill. They could've easily had mandatory evacuations down to close to Charleston and voluntary ones from Charleston to GA - which could've easily been converted to mandatory evacuations if the forecast changed significantly by tomorrow - because if the forecast is still the same tomorrow, the error bars will be much smaller and most of SC will outside of the NHC track cone. But they're not paying me, lol.

My guess (and it's just that) is that the authorities do not want a rush to evacuate just as the storm is coming on; that will just clog the highways. They may feel it's better to be precautionary, and evacuate early all the areas that plausibly could be hit. But they're not paying me, either.
 
US National Weather Service Philadelphia/Mount Holly



Here's an update on the key messages regarding Hurricane Florence, now a Category 4 storm. As of the current forecast, the most probable impacts to our area, if any, will be the potential for heavy, flooding rainfall and perhaps breezy conditions by the end of the week and into the weekend. Regardless of weather related impacts, the storm will bring large swells, high surf, and dangerous rip currents to our coastal waters. Please continue to monitor the forecast from NHC for the latest info: www.nhc.noaa.gov


41402422_2119753674724686_3807448349959782400_n.png
 
Man, that mandatory evacuation is sure to affect tee times!

Seriously, though, what do the resorts do in situations like this?
 
Yeah, they just had the Governor on TV and I was surprised they extended the mandatory evacuations from Charleston SW-ward, which is a lower probability landfall location. I get the concern for areas within maybe 100 miles of the Wilmington, NC NHC landfall prediction, i.e., down to about 25 miles NE of Charleston, but beyond there seems overkill. They could've easily had mandatory evacuations down to close to Charleston and voluntary ones from Charleston to GA - which could've easily been converted to mandatory evacuations if the forecast changed significantly by tomorrow - because if the forecast is still the same tomorrow, the error bars will be much smaller and most of SC will outside of the NHC track cone. But they're not paying me, lol.

Isn't the area between MB and C'town and west called the "Low Country"? It's flat and swampy. There's no protection and little elevation. I can see why the evacuation area extends almost 20 miles inland.

I can forsee another Houston situation. Hope I'm wrong,
 
Come on now.. use your imagination.

If you were forced at gunpoint to come up with a way such a video could be "useful".. what would that be?

Here's my take... the experts publish the results on so many model runs as lines, do they not? Are they "alarmist"? Only one of those lines might be correct, if that.

Each one of those lines provides possible long range warning of what may occur. The video posted was just an animation of one of those model runs.

It is not "useless"... just like the multiple lines in the static image of the model runs is not "useless".

You have to inject your own biases and inferences in order to have such a strong reaction to the posting of that video.

Hey no dissenting opinions allowed. [laughing]
 
Man, that mandatory evacuation is sure to affect tee times!

Seriously, though, what do the resorts do in situations like this?

Cash in on insurance policies? Then clean up and start taking reservations again.
 
Isn't the area between MB and C'town and west called the "Low Country"? It's flat and swampy. There's no protection and little elevation. I can see why the evacuation area extends almost 20 miles inland.

I can forsee another Houston situation. Hope I'm wrong,

My understanding is that the wetlands (flat and swampy?) are pretty good defenses agin storm surge. IANAM, YMMV.
 
My understanding is that the wetlands (flat and swampy?) are pretty good defenses agin storm surge. IANAM, YMMV.

That's one of the things they're good for.

Being the breeding ground for a large number of marine species is another.
 
My guess (and it's just that) is that the authorities do not want a rush to evacuate just as the storm is coming on; that will just clog the highways. They may feel it's better to be precautionary, and evacuate early all the areas that plausibly could be hit. But they're not paying me, either.

I was in Myrtle Beach when Hurricane Hugo approached. As I remember we weren't told to evacuate till the morning and it hit around 10pm, maybe a bit later. The highway system wasn't anywhere as robust as it is now. Highway 501 was backed up almost from Conway to the strand and back then the evacuation was only mandatory from the beachfront to Highway 17.

Myrtle Beach National was still open so we stopped off and played the West Course before heading North.
 
Very scary storm surge possible in SC/NC, which is why evacuations have already begun. Here's the latest post by Jeff Masters from Wunderground, one of the world's foremost experts on hurricanes. It's chilling. He says that if we get a Cat 4 landfalling hurricane in SC/NC there would likely be 15-20 foot storm surges based on surge models and historical data - catastrophic isn't a strong enough word for what would happen. A cat 4 landfalling solely in NC would be the first time in recorded history; there have only ever been 3 Cat 4's north of GA - Hugo (1989 which hit Charleston), Gracie (1959, which hit Edisto SC) and Hazel (1954, which hit the SC/NC border).

Expect a Storm Surge of 15 - 20 Feet in a Landfalling Category 4 Storm in the Carolinas
Dr. Jeff Masters · September 10, 2018, 1:48 PM EDT

Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record). All but three of these 27 landfalls by Cat4s and Cat5s have occurred south of South Carolina’s latitude; thus, Florence will be in very select company if it manages to make landfall at Category 4 strength in North or South Carolina.

If Florence hits the coast of North or South Carolina as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, we should expect to see record storm surge heights, with a 15 – 20’ surge very possible, according to two experts I communicated with today. Dr. Robert Young, Professor of Coastal Geology at Western Carolina University, says that “the track of Hurricane Florence, combined with its expected size and strength at landfall and the unique coastal geomorphology of the region, is likely to result in a record storm surge along portions of the warning area.” And according to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, “we could definitely see a 20+ foot storm surge/storm tide in the Carolinas. Even if Florence weakens a bit in the time right before landfall, the surge heights correlate better with the pre-landfall winds than the winds at landfall.”

It’s a good thing that landfalls by such strong hurricanes are rare along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast, since this coastline is extremely vulnerable to high storm surges. Two of these three historical Carolina Category 4 hurricanes generated a storm tide of 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge plus tide gets above the normal high tide mark.

The high vulnerability of this coastline is because the continental shelf extends out more than 50 miles from shore, creating a large region of shallow water less than 150 feet deep just offshore that forces storm surge waters to pile up to staggering heights. (See our storm surge basics page for more information).

41514483_10214630672634535_7193081167141142528_n.jpg


WU's storm surge inundation maps for the U.S. coast, computed using NOAA’s SLOSH model, tell a frightening story. Depending on where its center makes landfall, a mid-strength Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds hitting at high tide, in a worst-case scenario, can generate a storm tide in excess of twenty feet above ground level along the entire coast of South Carolina, and along most of the coast of southern North Carolina from the South Carolina border to Morehead City. Many locations could see a higher surge, of up to 27 feet. And a Category 5 storm is much worse: a theoretical peak storm tide of 33 feet is predicted by the SLOSH model for the Intracoastal Waterway north of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. These peak surges occur over a 10 - 40 mile stretch of coast where the right eyewall makes landfall. If Florence were to make landfall near Wilmington, NC, for example, the highest surges would extend northeastward to around Jacksonville, NC.

According to HURDAT, the official Atlantic hurricane database, these are the three Category 4 hurricanes that have hit the U.S. coast north of Georgia, since record keeping began in 1851:

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/E...0-Feet-Landfalling-Category-4-Storm-Carolinas
 
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I was in Myrtle Beach when Hurricane Hugo approached. As I remember we weren't told to evacuate till the morning and it hit around 10pm, maybe a bit later. The highway system wasn't anywhere as robust as it is now. Highway 501 was backed up almost from Conway to the strand and back then the evacuation was only mandatory from the beachfront to Highway 17.

Myrtle Beach National was still open so we stopped off and played the West Course before heading North.

LOL, I've never picked up a club in my life but that's awesome...
 
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