OT: Watching Possible Snow Event for late Wednesday Night/Thursday

[bac2therac]

Just a heads up. Last night models started to show a coastal popping in this time frame. Lots of model differences though run to run. Big question is can they cold air lock in place and how strong is the system. The NAM this morning just crushed us with 6-12 inches region wide but the GFS is just a sloppy 1-3 inches. Lots of model mayhem and pretty much any solution is on the table at this point so stay tuned.

 

[RocktheRac]

Enjoy the 60 degree tomorrow as all will shovel Thursday.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Guess I'll be hitting the supermarket on the way home!

The NAM this morning just crushed us with 6-12 inches region wide but the GFS is just a sloppy 1-3 inches.

Some people really like it sloppy!

 

[RUtix4me]

What about fri into Saturday? Something as well?

 

[bac2therac]

What about fri into Saturday? Something as well?

What about fri into Saturday? Something as well?

anything for the weekend timeframe is rain showers at this time with temps in the low 40s

 

[Knight Shift]

Guess I'll be hitting the supermarket on the way home!

Some people really like it sloppy!

Sounds like you should shop at the Hillsborough Deli.

 

[Knight Shift]

Just a heads up. Last night models started to show a coastal popping in this time frame. Lots of model differences though run to run. Big question is can they cold air lock in place and how strong is the system. The NAM this morning just crushed us with 6-12 inches region wide but the GFS is just a sloppy 1-3 inches. Lots of model mayhem and pretty much any solution is on the table at this point so stay tuned.

We just got our snowblower back from servicing, so no measurable snow will occur.

Funny thing on the service: We spent about $250 for pickup, dropoff and some work on the engine, sheared pins on augers, etc. The shop guy wanted to overhaul the carburetor for another $250 or so, most of it being labor. I overhauled a carburetor on a gas generator and knew how to do it (it took a good bit of time), so we passed. I searched for my carburetor on Amazon, and they make a replacement for $15. It takes 10 minutes to replace the carburetor and gasket (2 or 3 bolts). Not saying the guy at the shop was trying to rob me, but man, what huge difference in cost. Why bother rebuilding the carburetor?

 

[rurichdog]

We just got our snowblower back from servicing, so no measurable snow will occur.

Funny thing on the service: We spent about $250 for pickup, dropoff and some work on the engine, sheared pins on augers, etc. The shop guy wanted to overhaul the carburetor for another $250 or so, most of it being labor. I overhauled a carburetor on a gas generator and knew how to do it (it took a good bit of time), so we passed. I searched for my carburetor on Amazon, and they make a replacement for $15. It takes 10 minutes to replace the carburetor and gasket (2 or 3 bolts). Not saying the guy at the shop was trying to rob me, but man, what huge difference in cost. Why bother rebuilding the carburetor?

I'm guessing this new one doesn't have the exacting tolerances as the original, and was made with lower-grade materials and might possibly fail sooner. You saved a ton, but you may end up buying a few of them in the long run. Lawnmower replacement carbs are sometimes little more than metallized plastic, and dent easily or warp due to heat buildup.

 

[rurichdog]

Oh, and in before Numbers gets pissed someone upstaged his weather thread.

 

[TonyVolt]

Lots of model mayhem and pretty much any solution is on the table at this point so stay tuned

LOL. I'll stay tuned until Wednesday and go outside.

 

[koleszar]

For a Mason contractor this week is a scheduling nightmare. 60 degrees one day down to freezing temps the next. I had to have three different work schedules set up for this week. And I'm still confused on which one to implement.:confused:

 

[Source]

But I was going into Tosche Station to pick up some power converters!

 

[MYHATINTHERING]

We just got our snowblower back from servicing, so no measurable snow will occur.

Funny thing on the service: We spent about $250 for pickup, dropoff and some work on the engine, sheared pins on augers, etc. The shop guy wanted to overhaul the carburetor for another $250 or so, most of it being labor. I overhauled a carburetor on a gas generator and knew how to do it (it took a good bit of time), so we passed. I searched for my carburetor on Amazon, and they make a replacement for $15. It takes 10 minutes to replace the carburetor and gasket (2 or 3 bolts). Not saying the guy at the shop was trying to rob me, but man, what huge difference in cost. Why bother rebuilding the carburetor?

what shop was that? was it on 35?

 

[famousbill19]

We just got our snowblower back from servicing, so no measurable snow will occur.

Funny thing on the service: We spent about $250 for pickup, dropoff and some work on the engine, sheared pins on augers, etc. The shop guy wanted to overhaul the carburetor for another $250 or so, most of it being labor. I overhauled a carburetor on a gas generator and knew how to do it (it took a good bit of time), so we passed. I searched for my carburetor on Amazon, and they make a replacement for $15. It takes 10 minutes to replace the carburetor and gasket (2 or 3 bolts). Not saying the guy at the shop was trying to rob me, but man, what huge difference in cost. Why bother rebuilding the carburetor?

@Knight Shift - Curious where you went because I had a similar experience. My blower motor would not stay on and I was told that the carburetor was the problem so I paid the nearly $300 to have it replaced, only to have the same problem occur again (of course, just as I was about to plow through last year's blizzard). I brought it back (quite PO'd) and this time they said my gas cap inner seal was missing (which was probably the problem from the start).

 

[MYHATINTHERING]

Murray snow blowers; use what the Canadians use!

:)

 

[RocktheRac]

Numbers asleep at the wheel or his snowglobe broke.

 

[Knight Shift]

@Knight Shift - Curious where you went because I had a similar experience. My blower motor would not stay on and I was told that the carburetor was the problem so I paid the nearly $300 to have it replaced, only to have the same problem occur again (of course, just as I was about to plow through last year's blizzard). I brought it back (quite PO'd) and this time they said my gas cap inner seal was missing (which was probably the problem from the start).

I'd rather not say the name of the shop on a public forum. Like I said, I don't think they were trying to rip me off, I think the guy was thinking linearly in terms of rebuilding the carburetor is what should be done. If you message me, I will tell you who it was--if you want to save time, the shop we went to was in Monmouth County. I would definitely go there again because the service was otherwise excellent and they were straight shooters. They are one of the better shops in the area for power equipment sales and repair.

I'm guessing this new one doesn't have the exacting tolerances as the original, and was made with lower-grade materials and might possibly fail sooner. You saved a ton, but you may end up buying a few of them in the long run. Lawnmower replacement carbs are sometimes little more than metallized plastic, and dent easily or warp due to heat buildup.

You make a good point. Most of the reviews of the replacement carburetors said they held up for 3 or 4 years, which to me, seems like a good tradeoff. I have done a fair amount of small engine repair, and like I said, I cleaned and rebuilt a carburetor on a large generator, and it took me the better part of a weekend day. Funny thing, the engine and carburetor OEM parts are Tecumseh, and from reviews I read on Amazon, people said the Tecumseh replacements were cheap Chinese-made. I have no way of verifying that, but what I am going to do is buy the replacement carburetor made by Oregon, take off the original, and clean and rebuild it, with the goal of putting the original one back on the snowblower.

what shop was that? was it on 35?

No.

 

[RUJMM78]

Enjoy the 60 degree tomorrow as all will shovel Thursday.

Time to get the snow blower ready.Hope its not a wet snow storm that clogs the machine.

 

[nukem]

Numbers asleep at the wheel or his snowglobe broke.

I think his snow globe has been broken for awhile now with the way his predictions have gone.

 

[RUtix4me]

Time to call the paper company and tell them I will be on vacation and hold delivery? Last year the NY times was buried middle of the driveway. Jammed me for 45 minutes, used a utility knife to cut it out....

Forgot and left the utlity knif on the driveway started the blower...was still finding shards of razor blades 30-40 ft away in March.

 

[RUaMoose]

We just got our snowblower back from servicing, so no measurable snow will occur.

Funny thing on the service: We spent about $250 for pickup, dropoff and some work on the engine, sheared pins on augers, etc. The shop guy wanted to overhaul the carburetor for another $250 or so, most of it being labor. I overhauled a carburetor on a gas generator and knew how to do it (it took a good bit of time), so we passed. I searched for my carburetor on Amazon, and they make a replacement for $15. It takes 10 minutes to replace the carburetor and gasket (2 or 3 bolts). Not saying the guy at the shop was trying to rob me, but man, what huge difference in cost. Why bother rebuilding the carburetor?

Right before the holidays I brought my '60s era Snowhound 20 into the shop. It had been sitting out in the shed for 6 or 7 years - maybe more - since I last started it. Needed internal engine work, a new ignition coil and a new pull cord but she runs like a champ now. Been hoping for a nice 6" snow storm but there's been nothing. That Saturday storm we got back on Jan 7th I think it was would have been perfect but it was still in the shop for that one. They had a hard time finding parts for the machine so that delayed its repair/return.

 

[bac2therac]

Euro came in cold and more south, no precip issues but less for most.....1-3 central to north jersey and NYC with the 4-6 amounts going toward Monmouth/Ocean, south jersey to AC

 

[RU848789]

Oh, and in before Numbers gets pissed someone upstaged his weather thread.

I've never once been pissed that anyone else started a weather thread. I'd be happy with 2-3 weather threads, as I like talking about the weather. The only reason I tried to start the weather threads in the past was that quite a few posters liked when I would update the title of the thread as the system evolved (winter threads and game threads), which other posters don't necessarily do. I don't need that info, so I don't give a shit, really, but others liked that kind of updating and was just trying to help out.

 

[famousbill19]

I'd rather not say the name of the shop on a public forum. Like I said, I don't think they were trying to rip me off, I think the guy was thinking linearly in terms of rebuilding the carburetor is what should be done. If you message me, I will tell you who it was--if you want to save time, the shop we went to was in Monmouth County. I would definitely go there again because the service was otherwise excellent and they were straight shooters. They are one of the better shops in the area for power equipment sales and repair.

@Knight Shift thanks- that rules my guy out.

 

[RocktheRac]

Milf's at deli not happy with 1-3inches

 

[bac2therac]

Milf's at deli not happy with 1-3inches

the GFS gives a sloppy 1-3

Euro give a dry 1-3

so pick your poison

 

[Knight Shift]

the GFS gives a sloppy 1-3

Euro give a dry 1-3

so pick your poison

Dry 1-3 slot or a sloppy 1-3. What a dilemma.

 

[RU848789]

Euro came in cold and more south, no precip issues but less for most.....1-3 central to north jersey and NYC with the 4-6 amounts going toward Monmouth/Ocean, south jersey to AC

As you said in the op and is still the case, models have really been having trouble locking onto a solution, as both the Euro and GFS had major changes since last night's runs (and the Canadian shows no snow except for far NW areas). Now that the specific piece of energy that should reach us by Thursday morning is now on-shore in the Pac NW, the energy should be sampled better and I'd expect to see some narrowing of the possible outcomes with tonight's model runs, which initialize off of data from 7 pm EST tonight.

Still could be a near miss for most, to our south, a modest to significant snowfall (up to 6" is possible) for most, and more of a snowfall N/W of 95, as there may be temp issues and rain closer to the coast, i.e., it's way too early to try to predict the outcome with any good accuracy.

Now, if some of the snowier solutions come true, don't let people convince you that the ground will be too warm from the previous warm days to allow accumulation. That does make it harder for accumulation (more melting), but with temps around 32F and before sunrise, at least, when much of the precip should fall, if the precip rate is great enough, it will exceed the melting rate and we'll see accumulation on roads - but if it's light to moderate snow, accumulation will be spotty on roads.

 

[RU848789]

NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now - seems a little overdone, to me, but this certainly means that 3-5" is looking more likely, at least) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted. Since NYC is right on the I-95 corridor, this kind of snowfall would be expected to extend to the SW through at least Central Jersey, normally and maybe even to Philly. NWS-Philly update should be very soon.

Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly's first snowmap is up...2-4 inches throughout NJ

 

[bac2therac]

NWS in NYC is fairly bullish, now, on potential snowfall being in the 4-8" range Weds night into Thursday morning (not an official forecast yet, but that's their thinking now - seems a little overdone, to me, but this certainly means that 3-5" is looking more likely, at least) - with that much snow and good snowfall rates, there would be accumulation on roads and the morning commute would likely be impacted. Since NYC is right on the I-95 corridor, this kind of snowfall would be expected to extend to the SW through at least Central Jersey, normally and maybe even to Philly. NWS-Philly update should be very soon.

Amount of QPF remains in question after midnight through Thursday
noontime. Large spread in amounts, which makes for a challenging
snow forecast. much uncertainty, but an overall 4 to 8 inches
possible, less NW of NYC, and highest across Long Island, SE CT per
low track, and likely placement of banded precip. Once again, amounts
could be on either side of this average amount, but feel the morning
commute will be impacted regardless.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

I would hestitate to use Upton for most of NJ's forecast. From all the model stuff I have seen, we are possibly looking at big time precip issues here the more dynamic the storm is. Thats going to favor NYC north and to the east. Amped up solutions like the NAM are warmer than the GFS and Euro

 

[retired711]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.902243440183724&lon=-74.9653273123048#.WJjmQX9SSz8
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.902243440183724&lon=-74.9653273123048#.WJjmQX9SSz8
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has a storm reaching Cherry Hill very early Thursday morning. They say it will be all snow after 9 a.m., although they see the temperature as reaching 37. They say that precipitation amounts will be from one-quarter to one-half inch -- but of course that means 2-6 inches of snow (using the "normal" ratio of 10 to 1) if it's colder than forecast. Mount Holly has not put out a briefing about this storm yet.

 

[DennisHajekRC84]

FRACK! Burial of my Father in Law Friday morning on Staten Island. Coming back all the way from California.

Some family members coming in Thursday afternoon.

 

[bac2therac]

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.902243440183724&lon=-74.9653273123048#.WJjmQX9SSz8
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has a storm reaching Cherry Hill very early Thursday morning. They say it will be all snow after 9 a.m., although they see the temperature as reaching 37. They say that precipitation amounts will be from one-quarter to one-half inch -- but of course that means 2-6 inches of snow (using the "normal" ratio of 10 to 1) if it's colder than forecast. Mount Holly has not put out a briefing about this storm yet.

that may not be all snow, careful with that....use the snow map as Mt Hollys first call...which is around 2 inches in your area....could be 6 if the worst case scenerio verified and could be 0 if the best case verified

 

[RU848789]

I would hestitate to use Upton for most of NJ's forecast. From all the model stuff I have seen, we are possibly looking at big time precip issues here the more dynamic the storm is. Thats going to favor NYC north and to the east. Amped up solutions like the NAM are warmer than the GFS and Euro

Agreed, thought I made that clear - my main point was that often, points along the I-95 corridor experience relatively similar outcomes in snow/rain situations, but not always, based on both temp profiles and precip amounts. I also think NYC is being too bullish, as I said - I thought 3-5" would be more reasonable and that's what the NWS in Philly is predicting for most of Central Jersey/NE NJ/SE PA with their first map (and less towards the coast, due to temp issues). Also, if you look at the NYC-NWS map they really only show 4-6" for most, not 4-8" and 4-6" is reasonable relative to 3-5" to the SW in NJ.

 

[RU4Real]

It's a clipper. This means "a few inches, maybe". That's all it ever means.

 

[ruready4somefootball]

I'd rather not say the name of the shop on a public forum. Like I said, I don't think they were trying to rip me off, I think the guy was thinking linearly in terms of rebuilding the carburetor is what should be done. If you message me, I will tell you who it was--if you want to save time, the shop we went to was in Monmouth County. I would definitely go there again because the service was otherwise excellent and they were straight shooters. They are one of the better shops in the area for power equipment sales and repair.


You make a good point. Most of the reviews of the replacement carburetors said they held up for 3 or 4 years, which to me, seems like a good tradeoff. I have done a fair amount of small engine repair, and like I said, I cleaned and rebuilt a carburetor on a large generator, and it took me the better part of a weekend day. Funny thing, the engine and carburetor OEM parts are Tecumseh, and from reviews I read on Amazon, people said the Tecumseh replacements were cheap Chinese-made. I have no way of verifying that, but what I am going to do is buy the replacement carburetor made by Oregon, take off the original, and clean and rebuild it, with the goal of putting the original one back on the snowblower.


No.

If your in Monmouth County,I use Cerliones, they are very honest and been around a long time.https://www.facebook.com/Cerliones-Lawn-and-Garden-Equipment-353706051401200/

 

[RU848789]

It's a clipper. This means "a few inches, maybe". That's all it ever means.

It's not really a clipper. It's a low pressure system forming along the cold front that sweeps through here late on Wednesday, which then pops a coastal low which strengthens and travels close to the 40N/70W benchmark, bringing us mostly snow (if the models are correct). Precip amounts/snowfall will depend on how much it strengthens, but more than a few inches is definitely possible.

Clippers form in the Canadian prairies and dive down towards us and deliver usually just a few inches of snow, with very cold temps, often - this one is supposed to form to our SW along the front and then ride up the coast. This may well only deliver a few inches, but not because it's a clipper.

 

[RU848789]

that may not be all snow, careful with that....use the snow map as Mt Hollys first call...which is around 2 inches in your area....could be 6 if the worst case scenerio verified and could be 0 if the best case verified

Great point - bust potential is high with this storm due to borderline temps. Areas south of 195 and especially towards the coast will likely see some or mostly rain with this system, keeping accumulations down. Could easily see <1" in Hammonton, 2" in Cherry Hill, 2-4" in Valley Forge and 3-6" in Allentown, PA (for example). But if more cold air wraps in, Cherry Hill could see 4-6", while if not enough cold air is present, could only see an inch or less. Too early to know.

 

[retired711]

that may not be all snow, careful with that....use the snow map as Mt Hollys first call...which is around 2 inches in your area....could be 6 if the worst case scenerio verified and could be 0 if the best case verified

Yes, I was assuming that the event would be all snow, and of course you're right that's not true. I notice that NWS Mount Holly sent out a briefing late this afternoon on the freezing rain that may occur early in the week and the snow that may happen Wednesday night and Thursday. I also saw NWS is projecting 1-3 inches in Flemington on Wednesday night. But I take it that it's *much* too early to treat these forecasts as final; we'll probably end up "nowcasting" as we often do!