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OT: weather forecast help for Saturday - mercer county

tychicus

Junior
Dec 11, 2015
549
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Yay Area
any of you weather gurus can provide a more accurate weather forecast that should be expected for the mercer county area... tee time is at 12:15p

thanks in advance
 
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Looks like you folks lucked out. The secondary low to the west that was supposed to join the low along the coast never made it. For the most part the rains are done. Humidity dropping. Still cloudy and cool but much better than the original forecast.
 
Indeed, the washout forecast is washed out. Rain has ended in all but central NJ and right along the coast, down through Ocean County. It will gone in an hour or so.
 
Wretched handling by NWP, and the media outlets I heard weren't much better. 1015 was talking about today as if it were still rainy and stormy when I went to work at 1030am...it was already partly cloudy with a refreshing breeze...
 
Missed this thread. Even on Thursday, there was considerable spread in the model output for Saturday, with a couple of models showing a nearly dry afternoon NW of 95 (and especially NW of 78/287), then on Friday it started becoming clear that the worst of the rain on Saturday would be confined to the DelMarVa and South Jersey, especially towards the Shore, which is exactly what happened, although even there the 1-2" of rain that generally fell was less than the 2-4" or more being forecast. Early Friday morning I tried to convince our friends who live close to 78/287 to not postpone their Saturday afternoon BBQ, but they did - would've been fine, although I can see why they did. Certainly not a shining moment for most mets.
 
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Pretty evident these guys can't predict the weather anymore- even the Weather Channel - even 24 hours ahead of time.

It's their job - why are they getting worse?

Just look up - they are Chemtrailing the F out the sky and they are getting better at it...they can make a Weather Front stop on a dime and make it disperse within hours.

It's actually pretty funny - these Weather Channel people are looking at these historical wind and weather patterns and go with it and the Fed's run their Chemtrailing planes before the front and spray their their stuff and the weather changes.

Many patents on Weather Changing technology - you just have to look for it.
But they have gotten much much better at it - seems like the last 6 months.

They can make a drought, stop a drought, make a hurricane, stop a hurricane. -make a tornado - stop a tornado

All you have to do is look up.

Peace out

 
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To me if you care and watched the video - they seem to try and block the Sun. If you notice in Jersey there is always cloud cover to the West.

They don't want to show us the Sunset in the West - it seems like to me that there is max UV Light coming from the Sun for some reason but as kid the Sun was golden yellow going back to the 80's but now to me it is more white yellow - like the Sun is burning hotter.

To me it almost seems like the cloud cover - the sky looks fake. It has changed since I was a kid - no doubt. Looks fake to me.

Peace out
 
To me if you care and watched the video - they seem to try and block the Sun. If you notice in Jersey there is always cloud cover to the West.

They don't want to show us the Sunset in the West - it seems like to me that there is max UV Light coming from the Sun for some reason but as kid the Sun was golden yellow going back to the 80's but now to me it is more white yellow - like the Sun is burning hotter.

To me it almost seems like the cloud cover - the sky looks fake. It has changed since I was a kid - no doubt. Looks fake to me.

Peace out
 
Missed this thread. Even on Thursday, there was considerable spread in the model output for Saturday, with a couple of models showing a nearly dry afternoon NW of 95 (and especially NW of 78/287), then on Friday it started becoming clear that the worst of the rain on Saturday would be confined to the DelMarVa and South Jersey, especially towards the Shore, which is exactly what happened, although even there the 1-2" of rain that generally fell was less than the 2-4" or more being forecast. Early Friday morning I tried to convince our friends who live close to 78/287 to not postpone their Saturday afternoon BBQ, but they did - would've been fine, although I can see why they did. Certainly not a shining moment for most mets.


Zarrow on 101.5 is the biggest hedger and he refuses to tailor his forecasts seperating north, central and south jersey so often the hype of heavy rains which were supposed to be confined south gets confused in his overall forecast for the entire area. For those watching close like you or I saw a big trend on the models much like a snow event in the winter going south...I had an issue with too much jumping over the models runs in midrange rather than using forecasting tools. I saw a met in the NE forum question this event being able to happen given stuff he saw on the map. We need more than just model regurgitation which I think mets are falling back on too much
 
Zarrow on 101.5 is the biggest hedger and he refuses to tailor his forecasts seperating north, central and south jersey so often the hype of heavy rains which were supposed to be confined south gets confused in his overall forecast for the entire area. For those watching close like you or I saw a big trend on the models much like a snow event in the winter going south...I had an issue with too much jumping over the models runs in midrange rather than using forecasting tools. I saw a met in the NE forum question this event being able to happen given stuff he saw on the map. We need more than just model regurgitation which I think mets are falling back on too much

Agree and I think its easier than ever for that to be rationalized. I cant say that it isnt a natural human reaction to feel like as technology advances (and the model verification scores prove thst this is a fact) that there should be less room for human interpretation.
 
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