Michigan needs beat Ohio State. They still can go with 1 lose and beating Ohio State.
Ohio State needs to win out and Michigan to win the rest of their games and then beat them season finale.
Penn State needs to win out and Michigan to lose any 2 games.
The following procedure will determine the representative from each division in the event of a tie:
(a) If two teams are tied, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
(b) If three or more teams are tied, steps 1 through 6 will be followed until a determination is made. If only two teams remain tied after any step, the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative.
1. The records of the three tied teams will be compared against each other.
2. The records of the three tied teams will be compared within their division.
3. The records of the three teams will be compared against the next highest placed teams in their division in order of finish (4, 5, 6, and 7).
4. The records of the three teams will be compared against all common conference opponents.
5. The team with the best overall winning percentage [excluding exempted games] shall be the representative.
6. The representative will be chosen by random draw.
If one or both of the Big Ten division champions is ineligible to play in the Big Ten Championship Game, then the participant(s) in the Big Ten Championship Game shall be determined by the following procedure:
a) If the ineligible team is tied for the division championship, then the team it tied with shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
b) If two or more teams are tied with an ineligible team for the division championship, then the ineligible team is removed and the remaining teams revert to the tie-break procedure.
c) The division runner-up shall be the Big Ten Championship Game representative.
d) If there is a division runner-up tie, then the tied teams shall revert to the tie-break procedure.
If the championship game cannot be played (due to any reason beyond the control of the Big Ten Conference), the two division champions (using divisional tie-breakers as set forth above) shall be declared co-champions and the following procedure will be used to determine the Big Ten Conference representative to the College Football Playoff:
a) Teams ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll will automatically be placed in the College Football Playoff.
b) If the two divisional representatives met previously in the season and neither is ranked No. 1, 2, 3 or 4 in the final College Football Playoff poll, the team ranked highest in the final poll shall be the representative to the College Football Playoff, unless the other team is ranked within five or fewer places of the higher ranked team. In this case, the head-to-head results of the two teams shall determine the conference's representative.
c) If the two divisional representatives did not meet previously during the season, the team ranked highest in the College Football Playoff poll shall be the representative.
d) If the two teams are tied in the College Football Playoff poll, the team with the best overall Big Ten record shall be the representative.
e) If the two teams remain tied after d), the team with the best combined record of the tied teams against all common Big Ten opponents each team played that season shall be the representative.
f) If the two teams remain tied after e), the representative will be the team with the best overall winning percentage.
g) If the two teams remain tied after f), the representative will be the team furthest removed from College Football Playoff, Bowl Championships Series or Rose Bowl Game participation (as appropriate).
h) If the two teams remain tied after g), the representative shall be determined by a random draw.