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OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy

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As many of you know, im in real estate. And a question i keep getting bombarded with is, is this market a bubble. I did a webinar last night going over 50+ charts on why we are not and the data that backs it up. Posting here in case its of interest to anyone


Q1 2023 Update:
 
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Beyond thankful I locked a 4.875 rate last week. With today’s inflation report and the bond market selling off things are definitely trending up ratewise.
 
As many of you know, im in real estate. And a question i keep getting bombarded with is, is this market a bubble. I did a webinar last night going over 50+ charts on why we are not and the data that backs it up. Posting here in case its of interest to anyone
No disrespect Kyk but your continued bad take on just about everything you post here lessens my interest in just about anything you have to say..........regardless if it is your profession. So although the information may be good, it will just fall on deaf ears............at least for me.
 
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No disrespect Kyk but your continued bad take on just about everything you post here lessens my interest in just about anything you have to say..........regardless if it is your profession. So although the information may be good, it will just falls on deaf ears............at least for me.
What specifically do you disagree with?
 
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No disrespect Kyk but your continued bad take on just about everything you post here lessens my interest in just about anything you have to say..........regardless if it is your profession. So although the information may be good, it will just falls on deaf ears............at least for me.
That’s just great… “ no disrespect Kyk but” … remember they’re telling you for your own good Kyk .,
 
I'm calling it a bubble. The rising interest rates, comtinued inflation, plus I predicy a drop in consumer confidence that is coming will bring prices down. Feel free to call me out next year at this time if I am wrong,
Consumer confidence at all time low...
 
No disrespect Kyk but your continued bad take on just about everything you post here lessens my interest in just about anything you have to say..........regardless if it is your profession. So although the information may be good, it will just falls on deaf ears............at least for me.
Then why even respond? Strange behavior to say the least.
 
I'm calling it a bubble. The rising interest rates, comtinued inflation, plus I predicy a drop in consumer confidence that is coming will bring prices down. Feel free to call me out next year at this time if I am wrong,
I think a multi-year (possibly up to a decade) plateauing of prices is the most likely outcome in the NJ market rather than a broad scale, sudden decline in value. Schools and jobs will perpetually make this a desirable area and we haven’t seen the beyond insane runup in prices other parts of the country. Some states are still seeing places get snatched up same day sight unseen. That doesn’t happen around here.
 
All of the shuffling around due to the pandemic is starting to fade and the rise in rates will cause demand to fall off significantly.
Weve already seen the rise in rates and demand slow down. Prices have remained high and they are beginning to level out. Dont confuse leveling out with going down though. When you go from 20% price appreciation YOY to 12% that doesnt mean prices drop fyi
 
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Then why even respond? Strange behavior to say the least.
Disagree. It's a fair take. He has made an absolute arse out of himself on the basketball board, and he continues to double down on bad takes. It diminishes his credibility, IMO. That does not mean he doesn't have something useful to say about his area of purported expertise. We can have different opinions on these things, and not turn the thread into a donnybrook, can't we?
 
The major markets on east and west coasts of FL are still exploding. Retirees come to FL trying to buy real estate, but have to rent an apartment for a year since there is almost nothing available for immediate purchase.

I see this trend continuing. There are literally thousands of recent retirees living in apartments in FL until they can close on a condo or house. I’ve never seen such pent up real estate demand as this. Supply cannot keep up with demand at this point and many more Seniors are heading to FL in the next few years. The current rental rates in many areas of FL compete with NJ levels imo and are double what they were a few years ago.
 
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The major markets on east and west coasts of FL are still exploding. Retirees come to FL trying to buy real estate, but have to rent an apartment for a year since there is almost nothing available for immediate purchase.

I see this trend continuing. There are literally thousands of recent retirees living in apartments in FL until they can close on a condo or house. I’ve never seen such pent up real estate demand as this. Supply cannot keep up with demand at this point and many more Seniors are heading to FL in the next few year. The current rental rates in many areas of FL compete with NJ levels imo.
Rentals gonna keep booming imo. Too many people need housing and we are wayyy undersupplied. And when rates take a bite out of buyers purchasing power and they cant get anything they rent. All time low supply + all time high demand posted in q1 2022. Its best to be on the owner side here
 
Weve already seen the rise in rates and demand slow down. Prices have remained high and they are beginning to level out. Dont confuse leveling out with going down though. When you go from 20% price appreciation YOY to 12% that doesnt mean prices drop fyi
I don’t think prices will fall off a cliff, especially in this area, but we’ll be shifting to a buyers market in the next few years with modest pullbacks in prices imo.
 
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Minimally we will shift to a buyers market. Prices are going to cool and probably come down a bit at some point and houses will start to sit on the market longer

As far a a bubble is concerned, I don’t think it happens with real estate but also think it’s too early to be certain.

The economy has been so out of whack the past couple of years (supply, demand, interest rates, inflation) that I don’t think anyone can say for sure how and when the dust will settle related to anything.

More companies are missing earnings, inventories are increasing and cost of goods, energy, utilities etc. showing no signs of slowing down as of todays inflation report. Tech and start up companies are already starting to lay off/tighten hiring and my guess is that will eventually spill into other industries.

I also think some of those purchasing housing in the past 6-12 months got caught up in the housing market craze and some first time home buyers don’t realize how expensive their mortgages really are right now, especially anyone that’s purchased in the past 3 months. Let’s remember there are a lottt of average Americans out there who have spending problems, no issues with building massive debt or are not financially literate.
 
I don’t think prices will fall off a cliff, especially in this area, but we’ll be shifting to a buyers market in the next few years with modest pullbacks in prices imo.
To get to a buyers market we need inventory to get towards 6 months, about 2.9 million homes on market. We are at 2.2 months right now and around 1,030,000 homes on market. This is all while the largest demographic ever is hitting peak home buying/household formation age. Where does the inventory come from?
 
Whenever people have to argue there isn't a bubble, there's a bubble. Sell now if possible.
I didnt argue. I showed facts, figures and data regarding the people who keep saying bubble (theyve said bubble for a decade fyi lol). Heres a timeline of what the bubble boys have said every year for a decade https://t.co/Gd7tbnl3v3
 
I think there will be a softening in the RE market because of rising rates and what not but I don't know about a crash or similar to 2008. The supply is still low and demand destruction would have to be a lot to take prices down significantly. We'll see.
 
I think there will be a softening in the RE market because of rising rates and what not but I don't know about a crash or similar to 2008. The supply is still low and demand destruction would have to be a lot to take prices down significantly. We'll see.


From the articles:
  • Experts forecast a possible recession in 2023.
  • A downturn in the economy would hit a housing market that's been running hot for years.
  • But there's still a shortage of available housing and prices are not widely expected to drop.
Zandi predicts the year-over-year rate of U.S. home price growth will plummet from the all-time high of 20.6% to 0% by this time next year.

This sharp contraction in mortgage applications is similar to the one that began in 2006. That, of course, turned out to be the onset of a housing slump that culminated in a nationwide housing bust in 2008. But Zandi doesn't think we're headed back there. This time around, homeowners are in much better financial shape. Additionally, he says, this historic run wasn't underpinned by a credit rush of bad mortgages like we saw in the early 2000s.

Zandi doesn't foresee U.S. home prices falling nationally over the coming year. However, he forecasts this "housing correction" will likely result in 5% to 10% price reductions in significantly "overvalued" housing markets like Boise and Charlotte.
 
On the topic of beer, any new trends? Are we done with the hazy iPa nonsense yet?
No. Strong as ever. More people getting into the Seltzer business but White Claw is still king. Topo Chico is the new big hit.
Stella taking a hit as it is now being brewed by Bud in St. Louis, Word getting out. However other imports doing very well. Hofbrau, Pilsner Urquel, Delirium. Partially as they now are readily available in 4 pack 500ml cans which has made a big difference.
With a few exceptions the craft industry is settling into a local market for most. Taprooms in the Philly market are killing it. Brooklyn's Other Half has opened another brewery in Philly. I think it's their 5th. 2 in Brooklyn, DC , Philly and NY State.
If your close to Philly next Saturday 25th there is fund raiser at Love City Brewing for Street Tails Animal Rescue. Great brews!
 
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Well since we have a thread touting your own business then I want to let you know that I sell an inflation free product. Beer prices have not increased since last spring. 2021. I guess I should make a video on it too.
I don't drink but I just read an article on how consumers are cutting on this or that with regards to meals (different cuts of meat, veggies etc..) but the one place as of now at least that hasn't seen a change of habits....alcohol.


“Spending on alcohol has remained consistent so far,” said Lunney. “People are still hanging in there.”
 
I don't drink but I just read an article on how consumers are cutting on this or that with regards to meals (different cuts of meat, veggies etc..) but the one place as of now at least that hasn't seen a change of habits....alcohol.


“Spending on alcohol has remained consistent so far,” said Lunney. “People are still hanging in there.”
The first year of the pandemic was the best sales of alcohol ever. Crazy numbers.
 
As many of you know, im in real estate. And a question i keep getting bombarded with is, is this market a bubble. I did a webinar last night going over 50+ charts on why we are not and the data that backs it up. Posting here in case its of interest to anyone

Who's that gorgeous guy in the video (No Homo)?
 
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On the topic of beer, any new trends? Are we done with the hazy iPa nonsense yet?
https://capemaybrewery.com/beers/tan-limes I like this. We just started carrying it on tap at the place I bartend at during the weekends.

TanLimes.png
 
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