ADVERTISEMENT

OT: Why the real estate market is not in a bubble: Q1 2023 update video added to OP

$206K in North Jersey? Even in 2013 I couldn't imagine anything going that low for a single family house. Unless it is in a flood zone.

Not in a flood zone but definitely a flood prone town. The very low prices in the flood zone weigh down the rest of the prices in town.
 
hey @kyk1827 - how much do you see a drop in housing prices in middlesex and somerset counties by the spring of next year?
 
hey @kyk1827 - how much do you see a drop in housing prices in middlesex and somerset counties by the spring of next year?
Im no expert on those specific counties however, I have NJ as a whole pegged at about 3% YOY price growth over the next year or so. It could actually wind up being higher. Rates have peaked on the mortgage side I believe and if the 10Y keeps coming down mortgages are gonna get in the 4’s again.
 
The scare tactics against illegal immigration have always been a smokescreen for the politicians that fear changing demographics and getting voted out of office by hoards of new voters. I'm all for enforcing immigration laws, but why do you think we haven't reformed legal immigration?
What reform is needed? Im guessing you believe it's too difficult to becone a citizen? We already have more foreign born than any other nation! It's over 14% of our population. That doesn't even include illegals!
 
What reform is needed? Im guessing you believe it's too difficult to becone a citizen? We already have more foreign born than any other nation! It's over 14% of our population. That doesn't even include illegals!
The large majority of illegals are productive and positive contributors to our society and economy and should have a legal pathway to citizenship. Call it amnesty call it whatever you want they shouldn’t be deported if they are working and obeying our laws because we need their contributions. Beyond that, we need to raise the legal quotas for continued immigration in a sensible way. Growth of our economy requires more talent and workers due to falling birth rates
 
What reform is needed? Im guessing you believe it's too difficult to becone a citizen? We already have more foreign born than any other nation! It's over 14% of our population. That doesn't even include illegals!

False

Canada 21%


Australia 29.1%


Germany 17%


New Zealand 25%

 
The large majority of illegals are productive and positive contributors to our society and economy and should have a legal pathway to citizenship. Call it amnesty call it whatever you want they shouldn’t be deported if they are working and obeying our laws because we need their contributions. Beyond that, we need to raise the legal quotas for continued immigration in a sensible way. Growth of our economy requires more talent and workers due to falling birth rates

"I believe in the idea of amnesty for those who have put down roots and who have lived here even though sometime back they may have entered illegally." - Ronald Reagan
 
LOL nice.....seems he was tossing out some "alternative facts"
I believe in fair and compassionate immigration policy, but to be fair to CERU00, his statement was: "We already have more foreign born than any other nation".

If he was referring to the number of foreign born individuals (and not the percentage), then his statement was correct and accurate, by a large margin. I thought it was at least a possibility that he then mentioned the 14% as a separate, but related, statement. JMO
 
Last edited:
I believe in fair and compassionate immigration policy, but to be fair to CERU00, his statement was: "We already have more foreign born than any other nation".

If he was referring to the number of foreign born individuals (and not the percentage), then his statement was correct and accurate, by a large margin. I thought it was at least a possibility that he then mentioned the 14% as a separate, but related, statement. JMO
If that was the intent, it was a specious argument. Of course a nation of 330M cannot be compared on an absolute numeric basis to a nation of 30M.
 
hey @kyk1827 - how much do you see a drop in housing prices in middlesex and somerset counties by the spring of next year?
I own a brokerage in Middlesex County that is heavy coverage on both counties you mentioned. This will vary based on town and price range. Feel free to DM me.
 
Well, fwiw I've been watching my slice of the world here and I'm seeing home drop their ask prices by 125-150k which translates to about 5% reductions from comps.
 
Im no expert on those specific counties however, I have NJ as a whole pegged at about 3% YOY price growth over the next year or so. It could actually wind up being higher. Rates have peaked on the mortgage side I believe and if the 10Y keeps coming down mortgages are gonna get in the 4’s again.
Remember our recent exchange about what my agent told me…

 
Remember our recent exchange about what my agent told me…

still below long term historical averages. Alot of this comes from new construction being delayed and when people made offers they did so at 3% interest rates and now that rates are closer to 6% some can't afford leading them to cancel. Completions are taking longer. I wouldn't worry too much. Market is cooling down but cooling down from 20% YOY appreciation. As I've said, I expect 0-3% YOY appreciation (as long as rates stay above 5-5.25% on 30 year fixed rate loans)
 

We're living in it and raising our son there. We're alive. What does "livable" mean? It has updated kitchen, furnace and AC system were new when we bought it. We finished the basement ourselves and it's beautiful. The town has good schools and no crime. It's right on 287, on the 197/194 bus line. Why so cheap? Well, first....it's small: we bought it at 1100 sq. ft before we finished the basement. But there's only 3 of us. It's also on a moderately busy corner. If you need a big house it's not for you, but for us it's been perfect.
 
We're living in it and raising our son there. We're alive. What does "livable" mean? It has updated kitchen, furnace and AC system were new when we bought it. We finished the basement ourselves and it's beautiful. The town has good schools and no crime. It's right on 287, on the 197/194 bus line. Why so cheap? Well, first....it's small: we bought it at 1100 sq. ft before we finished the basement. But there's only 3 of us. It's also on a moderately busy corner. If you need a big house it's not for you, but for us it's been perfect.
Wow, 1100 sq ft is tiny for a family.
 
I dont think that anybody thought we were going to go from hot to cold instantly.

It's cooling now and then will go ice cold.

Don't discount macro economic factors such as a strong dollar making all the overseas money which was driving the markets higher with cash offers.

The euro and usd are also about to invert which will make it very tough on our economy.
 
Last edited:
2 BRs upstairs. 1 bath upstairs. Downstairs LR/Kitchen combo with an enclosed front porch. Less than 1 block from beach. We were very happy there.
Obviously, not happy enough or you wouldn't have moved (or perhaps you would have bought something similar in a new location). Way too small.
 
Obviously, not happy enough or you wouldn't have moved (or perhaps you would have bought something similar in a new location). Way too small.
We still own the place--it's a rental. I say to my wife we should move back when the kids are completely out of the house. Wake up, walk to the beach/boardwalk. Fish, swim, boogie board. People are always happy (most of the time) near the beach. Plenty of food options. We can bike to several great towns along the boardwalk/Ocean Ave.
 
We still own the place--it's a rental. I say to my wife we should move back when the kids are completely out of the house. Wake up, walk to the beach/boardwalk. Fish, swim, boogie board. People are always happy (most of the time) near the beach. Plenty of food options. We can bike to several great towns along the boardwalk/Ocean Ave.
Tear it down and build something better/bigger. Sounds like a good location, so maximize its value.
 
Wow, 1100 sq ft is tiny for a family.
Thats the largest home ive ever lived in lol. Until 4th grade it was a 2 bedroom 750 square feet, and until this day my mom still lives in our 1100 square foot 3 bedroom one bath. Plenty big. Too many people buy homes that are too large and a waste of space.

This was the house i lived in til 4th/5th grade. We had 5 people in a 2 bedroom but made it work and we all wound up alright
 
I dont think that anybody thought we were going to go from hot to cold instantly.

It's cooling now and then will go ice cold.

Don't discount macro economic factors such as a strong dollar making all the overseas money which was driving the markets higher with cash offers.

The euro and usd are also about to invert which will make it very tough on our economy.
So put it on paper. What do you define as “ice cold” and over what period of time
 
Thats the largest home ive ever lived in lol. Until 4th grade it was a 2 bedroom 750 square feet, and until this day my mom still lives in our 1100 square foot 3 bedroom one bath. Plenty big. Too many people buy homes that are too large and a waste of space.

This was the house i lived in til 4th/5th grade. We had 5 people in a 2 bedroom but made it work and we all wound up alright
That looks like a double-wide! 😜
 
We're living in it and raising our son there. We're alive. What does "livable" mean? It has updated kitchen, furnace and AC system were new when we bought it. We finished the basement ourselves and it's beautiful. The town has good schools and no crime. It's right on 287, on the 197/194 bus line. Why so cheap? Well, first....it's small: we bought it at 1100 sq. ft before we finished the basement. But there's only 3 of us. It's also on a moderately busy corner. If you need a big house it's not for you, but for us it's been perfect.
If it is good for you, then that is great. I still can’t wrap my head around 206k for a nice home in a nice middle class NNJ suburb
I’m looking at houses in NNJ and 600k gets you a house that needs 206k updating.
 
If it is good for you, then that is great. I still can’t wrap my head around 206k for a nice home in a nice middle class NNJ suburb
I’m looking at houses in NNJ and 600k gets you a house that needs 206k updating.

Tempted to post the Zillow link because I get the sense you don't believe me lol. But then id be doxxing myself.
 
ADVERTISEMENT