The MILF's at Hillsborough Deli are hoping there is some plowable action on Sunday morning.
OT: Winter Storm Sat Night/Sunday (2/17-18)?
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Euro holds with 3-6
so the 12z suites its basically the Euro the most bullish vs the other models which are more like a 1-3/2-4 inch event. I doubt NWS changes anything, still think they are a bit bullish and my amateur call would be that this is a 1-3/2-4 inch type event with marginal temps.
so the 12z suites its basically the Euro the most bullish vs the other models which are more like a 1-3/2-4 inch event. I doubt NWS changes anything, still think they are a bit bullish and my amateur call would be that this is a 1-3/2-4 inch type event with marginal temps.
Wow, was I way wrong about the NWS. They're simply ignoring the GFS and CMC and going with the Euro/NAM/UK blend for their forecast and have issued winter storm watches for counties along and NW of I-95 (north of Philly, through NYC and LI), for 4-6" of snow Sat night/Sun morning (and up to 7" N/E of NYC). Their snowfall amounts were also increased SE of 95 relative to yestreday, although they do still decrease towards the coast fairly rapidly with the 1" line from about Dover, DE to Toms River. They are the experts...
Nice write-up from the NWS on their rationale for the forecast, i.e., which models they used and how this was a pretty boderline call to go with watches, which might later need to be converted to warnings or just dropped to advisories (50/50 on that).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Attention focused on a potent northern stream shortwave diving
southeast from near the Alaska coast starting this morning, reaching
the Lower Great Lakes/Midwest by Saturday evening, and lifting to
near the New England coast by Sunday morning. The GFS seems to have
its usual progressive bias with the ridging/damming high ahead of
this system, so have opted to go with a non-GFS solution, leaning
towards a blend of the NAM/ECMWF/UKMET/SREF.
This shortwave will help develop a coastal low along the mid-
Atlantic coast Saturday evening, that tracks northeast to a position
southeast of Cape Cod by Sunday morning as it deepens. This track
takes the storm to the south/east of the 40N/70W bench mark.
Given the expected track, and rate of deepening, and with an assist
from the isallobaric component of the wind, that winds will quickly
go from SE to E to NE as the precipitation begins. This will limit
the amount of mixing with rain along the S shore of Long Island
during the start of precipitation Saturday evening, with the
transition to all snow last over the S Fork of Long Island.
Given that it appears that this change over will occur before
the heaviest precipitation arrives (except maybe along the S
Fork of Long Island by an hour or so), there is the potential
for a significant impact across most of the Tri-State. The other
limiting factors are QPF, which will be the least over NW
portions of the Tri- State, and the relatively quick movement of
the storm. There is the potential though for a quick hit of
heavy precipitation in banding to the NW of the storm - with
some indications that band could extend from NE NJ into SW CT.
However, this band could end up father NW or SE than progged.
Based on the above, in collaboration with WPC and surrounding
offices have issued a Winter Storm Watch from 00z-12Z Sunday for all
but Orange and Putnam Counties, and for the potential for 4-7 inches
of snow. Orange and Putnam Counties were excluded, because it is
more likely than not that there will not be sufficient QPF there to
have warning level snowfall. Elsewhere, confidence is at 50 percent
for warning level snowfall with uncertainty due to QPF amount,
banding placement, and along the S shore of Long Island how
quickly any mix with rain changes to all snow. As with any
watch, there is the potential for it to be converted to a
warning (about 50 percent of the time), or converted to an
advisory or cancelled (the other roughly 50 percent of the
time).
http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
http://www.weather.gov/phi/
Overall, not much model suite change from last night. Euro/UK/NAM all still showing a general 3-6" event from Wilmington to Hartford, including the I95 corridor in our area (with some lollipops to 7"), while the CMC and RGEM are showing more like 2-4" and the GFS is showing maybe an inch or two, as the outlier.
And almost every model shows a dropoff in snowfall amounts from 95 to the coast (about half as much or less, depending on location) - which means that the amounts for I-95 are certainly at risk of being a fair amount less with some minor changes in timing/track, bringing more warmth/rain inland.
If the NWS was ready to go with the Euro/UK/NAM last night, they'll certainly stick to their guns on that this afternoon and keep the watches up or maybe convert them to warnings (but maybe not all counties with watches - maybe Mercer and Middlesex and SI/LI get advisories and counties NW of there get warnings) and issue advisories for areas S/E of 95. We'll see.
Having said all that, probably the most amazing thing with this storm, if it verifies, will be getting 3-6" of snow after 4 of the last 6 days in the 50s and low 60s and temps going back into the 50s on Monday and mid/upper 60s (and maybe even hitting 70F) on Tues/Weds. Talk about threading the needle. Just goes to show you need just enough cold air for a day for snow.
Thanks. I think, lol. Just in case it wasn't clear, I do it so I can keep track of things better as a system evolves (it's an efficiency thing - I don't have to go hunt for that previous post). I Me Mine...
Southern Monmouth near the coast is a tough call, maybe even tougher than for I-95. A couple of models essentially showing little to no snow at all, a couple showing an inch or so after some rain, but at least 2 showing 2-4" with potential for more (the Euro shows about 4" and the NAM about 6"). I'm not feeling it down there, so I'd guess 2" of slop/slush with not much on the roads. Do you have something you need to make a decision on now?
Not my decision, but the ice rink in Wall where my boys have a game on Sunday a little after Noon.
Hoping not enough snow where they have to plow it and it screws up the schedule...games get pushed back or canceled. Screws everybody’s day up.
Any snow that accumulates on the roads will likely have melted by noon, with sunshine and temps in the low 40s by noon. A blacktop parking lot will melt more slowly without traffic, but will definitely be in full melt by noon, so I'm guessing even if Wall overachieves and gets 4-5" there won't be any impacts lingering past late morning.
But stuff starts early in hockey. There are games as early as 7am in this place.
If it snows enough that it needs to get plowed the domino effect could happen. That is my concern.
Justin Auciello of JSHN has this to say:
"Snow at the coast? Eh.... A quick moving system will likely deliver a wintry mix late tomorrow night into early Sunday, changing over to rain during the early morning hours. A few inches of snow are possible for inland Shore areas on colder surfaces. High temps will be around 50 on Sunday. Near 60 on Tuesday. No cold blasts are in sight through early March."
So, the NWS increased snowfall a little bit near I-95 and more than a little towards the coast in Monmouth/Ocean/Burlington and decreased it a little well N/W (Sussex/Poconos, etc.). They decided to just keep the watches up for a bit longer (and added Monmouth into the watch), presumably, until the decide to either convert them to warnings or advisories, probably later tonight after the 00Z model runs. Maps below. The 18Z NAM continues being a very good hit for I-95 and most of the area (4-7") and the 18Z GFS continues being further south with only 1-2" of snow for most. Interesting...
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GFS was wetter but warmer. NAM continues to be close to the Euro with its snowier and colder solution.
I'm sticking with what I said at the onset, which is that this storm is going to have a really tough time with temperatures. Warm before, warm after... threading this needle seems really unlikely.
Gotcha - yeah 7 am could be snow-covered in parking lots and require a bit of plowing, if the forecast holds for Wall. Still skeptical Wall gets more than 2" though, but hey, it's been the Shore's year for snow. And by the way, just ask more detailed explicit questions if you want some input...
especially for you...and once again it seem as we get closer to the actual event, instead of model consensus we get model divergence
Nick Gregory just said if any snow accumulates, it will be after midnight. Going to new Brunswick from Monmouth Saturday evening looks doable?
egads the GFS was warm...this is the least snowiest model
But the main reason the GFS has only 1-2" of snow is not temps and rain. It's precip rate and amount. Only 0.2-0.3" of precip (liquid equivalent) falls along I-95 and almost all of that is 1-2" of snow at or just above 32F. The >0.4" of precip amounts are all falling south of a Wilmington to AC line, mostly as rain, as temps are too warm there. If that precip made it up here, it would be falling as snow, as the column would cool more with greater precip rates and being closer to the cold air source. The GFS could certainly be correct, but it's largely alone in its track and keeping most of the precip well south.
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not sure I have seen some models push up start timing, it will depend on whether rates are heavier enough to stick, but I would think there should be sticking before midnight
Depends who you believe, the NWS or Nick. Nick's very good, but am surprised he said that. I think NB will be snowy in the evening. Monmouth maybe.
Posted this on 33andrain and similar posts earlier in this thread. I'll preface it by saying I'm not an expert in meteorology, but I am an absolute expert in heat transfer and kinetics of competing rate processes, such as melting and accumulating snow - people on the weather boards even recognize that. Anyway, bottom line is that if we get the snowfall rates forecast (a big if), we will get accumulating snow on all surfaces. Period. End of story. Here's the post - and note that it might be 35F at the start, but it's forecast to drop to 32-33F by midnight, decreasing the melting rate.
"Being at 35F at the surface at night is not too different, from a melting perspective, than snowing during the day in February - in either case, I'd estimate the melting rate to be 1/4-3/8" or so per hour, such that if snow is falling at 3/4-1" per hour as has been modeled in many cases, the snow will still accumulate on paved surfaces - even 35F ones - and once the accumulation starts, the temp of the "surface" is now 32F snow, so melting rates on paved surfaces decrease to near zero once the accumulation has started. At that point the only melting is coming from the 35F air, which is a very low melting rate (same thing during the day - once snow is on paved surfaces, most of the solar radiation is reflected by the high albedo of snow cover, greatly reducing melting rates after that)."
"Being at 35F at the surface at night is not too different, from a melting perspective, than snowing during the day in February - in either case, I'd estimate the melting rate to be 1/4-3/8" or so per hour, such that if snow is falling at 3/4-1" per hour as has been modeled in many cases, the snow will still accumulate on paved surfaces - even 35F ones - and once the accumulation starts, the temp of the "surface" is now 32F snow, so melting rates on paved surfaces decrease to near zero once the accumulation has started. At that point the only melting is coming from the 35F air, which is a very low melting rate (same thing during the day - once snow is on paved surfaces, most of the solar radiation is reflected by the high albedo of snow cover, greatly reducing melting rates after that)."
Does it depend if Mike Woods wrote his cue cards? Yeah, you are not a fan. Isn't the weather on one station all the same, or do different TV meteorologists say different things on the same channel?
Jenn Lahmers on Fox is easily the hottest woman on NYC news and is smokin' for the general population./ thread
The behind the scenes mets do the forecasts and the on-camera guys all deliver that single forecast, although the pros have a little more leeway for speculation. If the on-camera guys are pros, they often are part of developing the forecast. Mike Woods only delivers and not very well. He's probably dumber than Lonnie Quinn and that's saying a lot.
Weird eyebrowsJenn Lahmers on Fox is easily the hottest woman on NYC news and is smokin' for the general population.
Teeth too white.
Looks like she got a nose job.
(and pointy elbows).
He will kick your and my ass though.
I like Mike. Good guy. Pleasant delivery.
Best morning team in NYC (even without that eye candy JL).
She is near perfect, especially the bod. Just nit picking. Wonder if she likes diesels?
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