OT: Winter Storm Sat Night/Sunday (2/17-18)?

[APKnight]

All rain in Asbury Park. Just as iPhone weather app predicted.

 

[RU848789]

Me likey...

Edit: here's the text from that SPC report..

Mesoscale Discussion 0069
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0532 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

Areas affected...Southeastern Pennsylvania...Northern New
Jersey...Southern New York...and Western Connecticut

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 172332Z - 180330Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates around or in excess of 1 inch per hour are
possible for the next few hours this evening from southeastern
Pennsylvania into the New York City vicinity.

DISCUSSION...An approaching mid/upper-level shortwave trough and
low-level warm advection are contributing to ascent across the
region. As precipitation spreads east-northeastward across the
area, melting/evaporating hydrometeors will eventually saturate and
cool the low-level profiles, resulting in snow reaching the ground.
The latest high-resolution numerical guidance generally supports
snowfall rates around or exceeding 1 inch per hour for the next few
hours, as the system moves rapidly to the east-northeast.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0069.html

 

[bac2therac]

now will be our accumlating snow....7-11PM

 

[RU848789]

Just ripping here and it dropped from 35 to 33F in the last 15 minutes of mod/heavy snow. About 3/8" on the ground in the last 15-20 minutes, easily enough for snow to start accumulating on paved surfaces on our street, as expected.

Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.

 

[APKnight]

Get the snow skies out.

 

[APKnight]

Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.

Where are you? High Point?

 

[bac2therac]

23z HRRR holds with this wrapping up between 11-12

 

[WhiteBus]

Some flakes starting to mix in but is mostly rain and heavy rain at that.

 

[OTBOTOR]

Big@ss snowflakes in Jersey City. Pavement’s just wet. My thermometer reads 37 degrees.

 

[Rutgers1976]

Started snowing in New Providence @I-78 just before 6:00 there's now well over 2" of wet snow out less than 90 minutes later.

 

[RocktheRac]

Can we see 7 inches? 1 inch per hour till 11/12 says so. Run to the stores NOW!

 

[bac2therac]

over one inch on grass but paved is about 1/4 inch

 

[MulletCork]

Not much more than a coating on the pavement here in Scotch Plains.

Best thing about this crap is it will be gone as soon as it came.

 

[RocktheRac]

Where are you? High Point?

He's just high.

 

[RocktheRac]

Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.

I thought you don't make predictions? hhhmmmm

 

[RU848789]

Holy freakin' crap, from 3/8" at about 6:25 pm to 1.5" of snow at 7:05 pm - that's over a 1.5" per hour rate. Roads covered with about 3/4" of snow and accumulating easily now that melting is near nil, as temps are 33F. Will be surprised if I don't exceed my 4.5" prediction.

Up to 2" as of 7:30 pm, which is slightly over 1" per hour rates still and snowing heaviliy - heaviest snow of the winter for me. At this point, given the SPC notice and the radar, I think I'm going to bust low on my 4.5" forecast for my house. Reports of 5-7" in eastern PA, like Lancaster, Reading and towards the Lehigh Valley.

 

[bac2therac]

Not much more than a coating on the pavement here in Scotch Plains.

Best thing about this crap is it will be gone as soon as it came.

24 hours from now, most of it gone

although Numbers will be gathering it in bunches to put in his protective snow globe in Metuchen

 

[RU848789]

I thought you don't make predictions? hhhmmmm

I always predict for my house...

 

[bac2therac]

Up to 2" as of 7:30 pm, which is slightly over 1" per hour rates still and snowing heaviliy - heaviest snow of the winter for me. At this point, given the SPC notice and the radar, I think I'm going to bust low on my 4.5" forecast for my house. Reports of 5-7" in eastern PA, like Lancaster, Reading and towards the Lehigh Valley.

its going to wind down around 11 so not sure why you think you will get more than 5 inches

 

[knightfan7]

Changed over from rain to snow within the past 10 minutes here. Big flakes but not sticking yet.

 

[RU848789]

For anyone in NE NJ/NYC/Hudson Valley/CT:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New York NY
736 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

CTZ005-006-009-010-NJZ002-004-103>106-NYZ067-069>073-180230-
Northern Fairfield-Southern Fairfield-Northern New Haven-Southern New
Haven-Eastern Essex-Western Bergen-Western Passaic-Western
Essex-Eastern Bergen-Eastern Passaic-Rockland-Orange-Bronx-Southern
Westchester-New York (Manhattan)-Northern Westchester-
736 PM EST SAT FEB 17 2018

...HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT FAIRFIELD...SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAVEN...PASSAIC...BERGEN...ESSEX...WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN ORANGE...
BRONX...ROCKLAND...and NORTHERN NEW YORK COUNTIES...

A band of heavy snow will develop and continue over the region
through 930 pm.

Visibilities will drop to a quarter of a mile or less in this area,
with snowfall rates of 1 to possibly 2 inches per hour.

Roads are expected to become quickly snow covered, with travel
becoming difficult due to the poor visibilities and icy roads.

 

[RU at the shore]

Wow, pouring snow in Toms River. Huge flakes

 

[RocktheRac]

Wow, pouring snow in Toms River. Huge flakes

Biggest you have ever seen?

 

[Abro1975]

NW Essex County. Roads all covered looks like approx 2 inches.

 

[RU848789]

its going to wind down around 11 so not sure why you think you will get more than 5 inches

Please tell me your math isn't that bad. Have 2" as of 7:30 pm and if I continue to get >1" per hour for the next 3.5 hours (until 11:00 pm), I will then have more than 5". Not sure those rates will be sustained but the SPC statement said they should be for a few more hours.

 

[knightfan7]

Biggest you have ever seen?

Don't know about being the biggest Rock but pretty darn big.

 

[bac2therac]

will you get the same rates all the way until 11...thats your big question

 

[Rutgers1976]

Can we see 7 inches? 1 inch per hour till 11/12 says so. Run to the stores NOW!

You must be getting your wishcasting from the Hillsborough Deli.

 

[RocktheRac]

My NWS says Hillsborough at least 6 inches at rate of 1-2 inches per hour.

 

[Rutgers1976]

4" in the past 2 hours in New Providence now. Might have happier MILFs up here tonight.

 

[RU848789]

Warnings just issued for ~6" or so for Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Sussex, Warren, Poconos, Lehigh Valley, upper Bucks/Montco. Not for Middlesex, lol. Counties in pink are warnings. Some will get well beyond 6" with 3-4+" already on the ground in some of these locations (Morristown, Allentown, etc.). GFS can suck it.

Edit: here's what the NWS just said...

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
755 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
We are getting total snow reports up to 6 inches across parts of
eastern PA and northern NJ (see latest PNSPHI product) and snow
continues to fall over those areas. Therefore we have upgraded
to a winter storm warning there. Radar mosaic loop indicates
snow starting to taper off for Berks Co and vicinity, but
moderate to heavy snow should continue farther east for a couple
more hours.

 

[DJ Spanky]

Just went out to put the grill on: we are at 5.5 inches right now. Holy crap, this storm is out performing.

 

[RU848789]

Up to 2" as of 7:30 pm, which is slightly over 1" per hour rates still and snowing heaviliy - heaviest snow of the winter for me. At this point, given the SPC notice and the radar, I think I'm going to bust low on my 4.5" forecast for my house. Reports of 5-7" in eastern PA, like Lancaster, Reading and towards the Lehigh Valley.

Up to 2.75" as of 8:00 pm, which is 3/4" in the last half hour or 1.5" per hour. Wow. Pouring snow out there - true heavy snow with <1/4 mile visibility. Think we get to 5-6" before it ends around 11-12. 32F and roads are a mess in the region. Heard 4.5" in Morristown already.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

DJ,you will think of any reason to have a tailgate. I guess tomorrow you have Daytona 500 Day and Presidents Day on Monday.Not sure about Tuesday.

 

[bac2therac]

GFS should be retired

 

[e5fdny]

Changed over from rain to snow within the past 10 minutes here. Big flakes but not sticking yet.

Boo on the first part. Yay on the second.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Maybe half an inch in Manchester,but it has gone from rain to snow in the last z30 minutes or so.

 

[RocktheRac]

Warnings just issued for ~6" or so for Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Sussex, Warren, Poconos, Lehigh Valley, upper Bucks/Montco. Not for Middlesex, lol. Counties in pink are warnings. Some will get well beyond 6" with 3-4+" already on the ground in some of these locations (Morristown, Allentown, etc.). GFS can suck it.

I just posted that but this was updated at 4:40 pm according to my NWS site.

 

[RU848789]

I just posted that but this was updated at 4:40 pm according to my NWS site.

No, they were just issued about 30 minutes ago...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
741 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-
Lehigh-Northampton-Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown,
Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading,
Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont,
and Perkasie
741 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Total snow accumulations of around 6 inches
are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northern and northwest New Jersey and east
central, northeast and southeast Pennsylvania.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Sunday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Be
prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times. The
snow may fall at 1 to 2 inches per hour at times in parts of the
region, resulting in rapidly deteriorating road conditions.

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=winter storm warning

 

[RU848789]

New and improved snowfall map - major increases...