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Possible wintery weather for Thursday

RocktheRac

Heisman Winner
Sep 10, 2001
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Dan Zarrow honking for a wintery event for Thursday around 10am to 7 pm timeframe. Light snow and or freezing rain. Very light at this time but look for a coating of snow and or ice with the cold air in place.
 
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Even the NWS calls this a nuisance event...

With this in mind, retained PoPs in much of the area Thursday
and increased them to chance PoPs across the northern third or
so of the CWA while removing them from central/southern Delmarva
given the lack of model support for a farther south solution at
this time. Temperatures will be cold enough for mostly snow in
the morning but may warm sufficiently in the afternoon for
either rain or snow in the urban corridor eastward. Amounts
would be light (generally well under an inch), and there is
still quite a bit of uncertainty on overall coverage. Fine-
tuning of this "nuisance-looking" event will continue in later
forecasts given the weak nature of the system and the continued
model spread regarding the track of the vort max/surface lo.
 
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I served up a huge snowball for you to hit over the fence, and you whiffed. . . .
Just giving the OP a little grief like he gives you when you post a weather thread. I was calling his post a nuisance event. Sarcasm does not translate well sometimes. :fistbump:
The problem is that sarcasm is supposed to be funny and the intended target needs a sense of humor. 2 strikes
 
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I think this thread is worthy especially those north of 78. Stay tuned.

Not really. Less than 0.5" of snow during daylight hours, when the precip is most likely to fall, means fairly light snowfall rates, which means very little is likely to accumulate on paved surfaces with temps around freezing or above. I can't see this being anything more than a nuisance, except maybe for far NW NJ/Poconos, where temps will stay at or below 32F during the day and there's the potential for up to 1" of snow - and even then this won't be much an issue, except maybe on lightly traveled roads/sidewalks. Looks like mood flakes to me.

The only chance for this to be worth worrying about, is if the little storm overperforms significantly. There is about a 10% chance of and inch to locally 2" falling just NW of the 95 corridor, especially NW of the 78/287 intersection, but that's not the way to bet right now.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter
 
meh this is more like a nuisance thread

but I am sure that idiot Murphy will have thousands of salt trucks and all that brine ready to go
Murphy is going to overkill it, and when this storm doesn't pan out he will blame the weather people again. I thought Christie was bad, this guy may be the biggest a$$clown of all.
 
Not really. Less than 0.5" of snow during daylight hours, when the precip is most likely to fall, means fairly light snowfall rates, which means very little is likely to accumulate on paved surfaces with temps around freezing or above. I can't see this being anything more than a nuisance, except maybe for far NW NJ/Poconos, where temps will stay at or below 32F during the day and there's the potential for up to 1" of snow - and even then this won't be much an issue, except maybe on lightly traveled roads/sidewalks. Looks like mood flakes to me.

The only chance for this to be worth worrying about, is if the little storm overperforms significantly. There is about a 10% chance of and inch to locally 2" falling just NW of the 95 corridor, especially NW of the 78/287 intersection, but that's not the way to bet right now.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter


ive seen you start a thread for nuisance storms for those to the north early in the season..Do you want me to dig those out...just saying
 
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ive seen you start a thread for nuisance storms for those to the north early in the season..Do you want me to dig those out...just saying
Oh Just Stop it already will ya. What are you two are gonna do turn another weather thread unreadable!
 
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ive seen you start a thread for nuisance storms for those to the north early in the season..Do you want me to dig those out...just saying

I don't ever recall starting a thread for an event where nobody in NJ is expected to get more than 1" of snow. There are many events each winter where the higher elevations in NW NJ (Sussex/Warren, W. Passaic) and the Poconos/Catskills get 1-2" of snow and the rest of NJ gets maybe a dusting or mostly rain and I never start threads on those. I have started some threads where it looked like moderate (up to 3") to significant (up to 6") snowfall for much of the area and then the threat failed to materialize or ended up being minor, but that happens.

Having said that, I would actually start more threads like this one, except people like you generally give me a lot of grief even over the bigger threats and it's not worth even more grief for starting a thread like this one. This thread would be 3 pages long full of insults and arguing if I had started it.
 
Not really. Less than 0.5" of snow during daylight hours, when the precip is most likely to fall, means fairly light snowfall rates, which means very little is likely to accumulate on paved surfaces with temps around freezing or above. I can't see this being anything more than a nuisance, except maybe for far NW NJ/Poconos, where temps will stay at or below 32F during the day and there's the potential for up to 1" of snow - and even then this won't be much an issue, except maybe on lightly traveled roads/sidewalks. Looks like mood flakes to me.

The only chance for this to be worth worrying about, is if the little storm overperforms significantly. There is about a 10% chance of and inch to locally 2" falling just NW of the 95 corridor, especially NW of the 78/287 intersection, but that's not the way to bet right now.

https://www.weather.gov/phi/winter

Back to the weather. Still looks to be largely a nuisance snowfall on Thursday. Most areas near/along 95 (north of 195) will likely get some light snow and a dusting to a coating (1/4" or so) in the morning, before mixing/changing to some light rain as temps warm up into the mid/upper 30s by late morning. Areas NW of 78/287 up to about 80 could get 1/2" or so, which would still likely not have travel impacts on most roads.

Areas in far NW NJ (higher elevations in Sussex, Warren and W. Passaic) and the Poconos/Hudson Valley, in general, could get an inch to maybe close to 2" in a few spots and there could be some slick spots for the morning commute on secondary and side roads - major roads should be fine. Not enough for advisories anywhere and there's a good possibility that there will be little to no snow in 90% of NJ, except for the far NW locations, which appear likely to at least get 1/2".

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

48393139_10215209597547296_6506088224589348864_n.jpg
 
Back to the weather. Still looks to be largely a nuisance snowfall on Thursday. Most areas near/along 95 (north of 195) will likely get some light snow and a dusting to a coating (1/4" or so) in the morning, before mixing/changing to some light rain as temps warm up into the mid/upper 30s by late morning. Areas NW of 78/287 up to about 80 could get 1/2" or so, which would still likely not have travel impacts on most roads.

Areas in far NW NJ (higher elevations in Sussex, Warren and W. Passaic) and the Poconos/Hudson Valley, in general, could get an inch to maybe close to 2" in a few spots and there could be some slick spots for the morning commute on secondary and side roads - major roads should be fine. Not enough for advisories anywhere and there's a good possibility that there will be little to no snow in 90% of NJ, except for the far NW locations, which appear likely to at least get 1/2".

https://www.weather.gov/phi/

48393139_10215209597547296_6506088224589348864_n.jpg

Isn't the prediction now for snow north of the 78 corridor? It may not be much snow, but we both know that sometimes just a bit of snow is the most dangerous kind for drivers -- I don't know if I would just call it a nuisance,.
 
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Isn't the prediction now for snow north of the 78 corridor? It may not be much snow, but we both know that sometimes just a bit of snow is the most dangerous kind for drivers -- I don't know if I would just call it a nuisance,.

I said "largely a nuisance" and then defined where there could be some minor to modest impacts, i.e., far NW NJ/Poconos/Catskills/Hudson Valley, where 1-2" of snow could fall, including by the morning rush hour, especially for the Poconos (and maybe the northern Lehigh Valley). However for the 95 corridor up through NYC, any snow that falls will very likely be after 8 am, with temps at or above freezing, meaning no real impact on roads, which, to me, is a nuisance snowfall. Even for most of the region between 78 and 80 (except NW portions) there may be 1/2-1" of snow, but again with little accumulation likely on most roads (maybe side streets), which would be a nuisance.

And the latest suite of 0Z models (and the 6Z NAM/GFS which just came out) shows less snow than yesterday afternoon's models were showing, i.e., essentially nothing for the 95 corridor and only far NW NJ/Poconos and Hudson Valley getting an inch or maybe 2 with the area between 78 and 80 maybe getting 1/2" (near 78) to an inch (near 80). Those amounts after 8 am (the mesoscale models show no snow in NJ until 8 am) would generally melt on mosts paved surfaces during daylight at low/moderate intensity with temps generally at or above 32F, especially as the morning wears on.

Of course, people should monitor the radar and the forecast in the morning, as things can always change, but right now this is looking to be quite minor for 90% of NJ. Maps from this evening are below. Given the model trends, I would expect the NWS to either leave these the same (just to be conservative, after being bitten by badly underforecasting the 11/15 snow) or maybe decrease snowfall amounts a touch.

48086492_10215211895364740_9075478836631568384_n.jpg


StormTotalSnowWeb.png
 
If ya live in NJ, 2 to 4 inches of snow is a nuisance. I ya live in South Carolina it's a major event.
 
If ya live in NJ, 2 to 4 inches of snow is a nuisance. I ya live in South Carolina it's a major event.

Huge difference between there and here, in general, although even just a few inches can be major here, when the timing is just right (or wrong), like on 11/15, where mostly 3-7" fell and even where only 2-4" fell.
 
I said "largely a nuisance" and then defined where there could be some minor to modest impacts, i.e., far NW NJ/Poconos/Catskills/Hudson Valley, where 1-2" of snow could fall, including by the morning rush hour, especially for the Poconos (and maybe the northern Lehigh Valley). However for the 95 corridor up through NYC, any snow that falls will very likely be after 8 am, with temps at or above freezing, meaning no real impact on roads, which, to me, is a nuisance snowfall. Even for most of the region between 78 and 80 (except NW portions) there may be 1/2-1" of snow, but again with little accumulation likely on most roads (maybe side streets), which would be a nuisance.

And the latest suite of 0Z models (and the 6Z NAM/GFS which just came out) shows less snow than yesterday afternoon's models were showing, i.e., essentially nothing for the 95 corridor and only far NW NJ/Poconos and Hudson Valley getting an inch or maybe 2 with the area between 78 and 80 maybe getting 1/2" (near 78) to an inch (near 80). Those amounts after 8 am (the mesoscale models show no snow in NJ until 8 am) would generally melt on mosts paved surfaces during daylight at low/moderate intensity with temps generally at or above 32F, especially as the morning wears on.

Of course, people should monitor the radar and the forecast in the morning, as things can always change, but right now this is looking to be quite minor for 90% of NJ. Maps from this evening are below. Given the model trends, I would expect the NWS to either leave these the same (just to be conservative, after being bitten by badly underforecasting the 11/15 snow) or maybe decrease snowfall amounts a touch.

48086492_10215211895364740_9075478836631568384_n.jpg


StormTotalSnowWeb.png
So, there was zero impact on the morning rush hour everywhere and I still don't expect to see much impact on the roads south of 80. Still looks like only areas N of 80 and especially NW of 80/287 intersection in NJ and the Hudson Valley, as well as the Poconos will see an inch or more of snow, as temps there are still below 32F and they're getting light/moderate snow. Everywhere along and S of 78 is above 32F and precip is light, so the threat is basically over for those areas. Could be 1/2" or so between 78 and 80 (and west of 287 there), especially close to 80, but very little on the roads given light intensity and borderline temps.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
937 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Clipper system over western NY and western PA will pass north of
the area this morning. Based on model guidance, the surface low
seems to fizzle out as it tracks east. The 500 mb low, however,
remains fairly strong , and there is strong shortwave energy
associated with it that will pass north of the region later
today.

Light snow has developed across northern zones this morning
and the vsbys in the light snow have remained mostly 2SM - 5SM
as of this time. Another batch of precip, more showery in
nature, is across central PA. These areas will affect the
northern areas this morning and into the afternoon. Overall,
liquid QPF amounts will be fairly low, generally between
1/10-2/10 inch, and this should yield about an inch of snow,
generally along and north of I-80. In some of the higher
elevations, however, up to 2 inches of snow will fall, and still
cannot rule out an isolated 3 inch report.

For areas along and south of I-78 to around I-195, light snow
later this morning will mix with and eventually change to rain
by midday or so. Again, QPF amounts will be light, generally
less than 1/10", so not much at all in the way of snow will
accumulate, and in these areas, snow will melt off by this
afternoon.
 
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So, there was zero impact on the morning rush hour everywhere and I still don't expect to see much impact on the roads south of 80. Still looks like only areas N of 80 and especially NW of 80/287 intersection in NJ and the Hudson Valley, as well as the Poconos will see an inch or more of snow, as temps there are still below 32F and they're getting light/moderate snow. Everywhere along and S of 78 is above 32F and precip is light, so the threat is basically over for those areas. Could be 1/2" or so between 78 and 80 (and west of 287 there), especially close to 80, but very little on the roads given light intensity and borderline temps.

National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
937 AM EST Thu Dec 13 2018

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Clipper system over western NY and western PA will pass north of
the area this morning. Based on model guidance, the surface low
seems to fizzle out as it tracks east. The 500 mb low, however,
remains fairly strong , and there is strong shortwave energy
associated with it that will pass north of the region later
today.

Light snow has developed across northern zones this morning
and the vsbys in the light snow have remained mostly 2SM - 5SM
as of this time. Another batch of precip, more showery in
nature, is across central PA. These areas will affect the
northern areas this morning and into the afternoon. Overall,
liquid QPF amounts will be fairly low, generally between
1/10-2/10 inch, and this should yield about an inch of snow,
generally along and north of I-80. In some of the higher
elevations, however, up to 2 inches of snow will fall, and still
cannot rule out an isolated 3 inch report.

For areas along and south of I-78 to around I-195, light snow
later this morning will mix with and eventually change to rain
by midday or so. Again, QPF amounts will be light, generally
less than 1/10", so not much at all in the way of snow will
accumulate, and in these areas, snow will melt off by this
afternoon.

Snow threat is over for everyone except the Poconos and Catskills and even there, they're now only expecting an inch to maybe 2". Temps are above 32F everywhere except Sussex, NW Passaic and northern Morris (and north of the Tappan Zee and in the Poconos), so any more precip south of 80 is likely to be rain and there's not much precip going on. I have not heard of anyone outside of higher elevations in NW NJ or the Poconos even getting 1/2". Nuisance storm.
 
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Snow threat is over for everyone except the Poconos and Catskills and even there, they're now only expecting an inch to maybe 2". Temps are above 32F everywhere except Sussex, NW Passaic and northern Morris (and north of the Tappan Zee and in the Poconos), so any more precip south of 80 is likely to be rain and there's not much precip going on. I have not heard of anyone outside of higher elevations in NW NJ or the Poconos even getting 1/2". Nuisance storm.
Snowmageddon? :oops:
 
If a month ago NYC did 1/4th of the prep that they did today we would've avoided that whole disaster.
 
Huge difference between there and here, in general, although even just a few inches can be major here, when the timing is just right (or wrong), like on 11/15, where mostly 3-7" fell and even where only 2-4" fell.
I'm starting to understand that you are very argumentative and have to have the last word on everything. Even if it's trivial, such as the word nuisance. I guess comparisons are just relative to your definition.
 
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I'm starting to understand that you are very argumentative and have to have the last word on everything. Even if it's trivial, such as the word nuisance. I guess comparisons are just relative to your definition.
Welcome to the Club
 
I rolled back into Jersey at 2:30 this afternoon and when I hit the NJTP at Exit 6 it was 50 degrees.

Then there was this idiocy:

Some of the replies to that tweet are delightfully hilarious...I’ve never seen so much sand and salt spread on our roads...it looked like a beach...could have built a sand castle...in the military they call that fraud, waste and abuse...
 
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