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Post-Mortem on Exhibition Game - One Person's View

lion1983

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So ... I am posting this post-mortem BEFORE reading any other articles or views - as I often will do this season ... so as to convey my initial impressions "untainted" by other views. No doubt, after reading other accounts, I will take those into consideration and my opinions may evolve after such reviews. Be aware this is a long post (for those who complain about the length of my posts).

Understand that the view we just got is valuable - but there are still 3 full weeks before the first real game, and 5-6 weeks before the Vegas games (ND, Alabama, Houston). That is a lot of practice time to improve on fundamentals, especially on defense. Also, consider that because of how much practice is still to come, the team could and should look quite different in a month.

Understanding the limits of what can be learned about the team in an exhibition game with a lot of practice time remaining, and from a game where Pikiell stated in advance he was NOT going to use practice time to prep the team for the other players' tendencies (like they would normally do during the season game by game prep), I offer this VERY preliminary thought about the upcoming season:

Based SOLELY on this game, and assuming only "normal" and gradual in-season developmental improvements as if the season started LAST NIGHT (i.e. not 3 more weeks of practice before the first real game, nor 5 relatively easier games to start the season), I see RU, as it CURRENTLY is, as perhaps ranked #7 to #10 in the Big Ten, and a probably NCAA team (but not a top 8 seed). With those caveats, understand, also based on this ONE game, RU does have plenty of room to GROW as a team, as well.

I will start with the areas that RU will have to work on over the next 3 weeks, and through the early part of their season:

1) Rebounding. RU was beaten to the rebound too often, and had the ball dribble off their hands too much while attempting rebounds. And were badly outrebounded on the offensive glass, a major problem in this game ... and going forward unless this is improved upon. RU, as constructed, may not have to be the superior offensive rebounding team relative to their opponents, but they must improve, and close the gap. RU ended up with a good amount of its own offensive rebounds, but needs to improve its defensive rebounding.

2) Post Defense / Help Defense. I THINK these may be related in this game. I do need much more of a sample size to truly understand what was going on. But clearly, RU's post defense was not good in this game. I'll get to individual players later, but 2 things stood out in this game: Sommerville was absolutely abused defensively - and his minutes were limited severely because of that ... and Martini could not defend a post player with size and strength. Now, these are the sorts of things that can improve as RU's help defense rotations improve ... and will have to improve if RU wants to finish in the top third of the Big Ten.

3) Inability To Close - possibly due to untimely late turnovers. So ... RU led 79-70 with maybe 6-8 minutes left, and could not close the deal. In that stretch, RU had at least 4 turnovers: Ogbole stripped on post move, Bailey with a too aggressive cross court pass easily intercepted, Harper with a turnover after forcing himself inside the paint 1 on 3, and Williams on a drive to the rim, ball off him after his shot was blocked. Plus, something that probably would not have happened in a real game, when Harper got his 4th foul with 6:30 left, Pikiell left him in (presumably to see how he'd play with 4 fouls) ... Harper immediately played "ole" defense (not even trying, but literally just letting his player get easy shots) on back to back possessions, and was pulled. If I had to guess, this inability to close was a combination of Harper and Bailey perhaps being a little tired (short on shots, more careless), plus their inexperience ... both of which are fixable with practice, experience and slight tweaks in the substitution rotations.

Positive Team Signs (though a small sample size) - individual players comments to follow after:

1) Definitely better FT shooting.
RU was 18-22 FT - and almost every player's FT form looked solid (Ogbole and Davis looked improved, the new players look like they can all hit their FT's).

2) Much better scorers than last season - even with a small sample size. That does not mean RU will not have games where they miss plenty of shots (all teams have those games). Bailey, Harper and Hayes are better shooters and scorers than ANY players RU had last season. Any other offensive shortcomings of other players pale in comparison to the improved scoring potential of those 3 players. Too early to tell if Davis is improved as a scorer, and Williams had foul trouble and did not try many shots. It was only ONE game, and at home, so way too early to tell overall or longer term, but RU was 9-22 from 3 - 40% ... fueled by the correct guys taking the 3's: Bailey, Harper and Hayes took 1`7 of RU's 22 3's.

3) New Style of Offense. RU used a outside weave (with hand offs) for the most part, coupled with high screens ... and TONS of willing ball movement and passes. Bailey used screens less often than did Harper (as we saw in RU's intra-squad scrimmage), but he DID use screens. Bailey was the main RU player who went only one on one (Harper very occasionally - but often off screens) ... and I suspect that will continue, as when he is hitting his shots he is simply undefendable one on one. One fly in the ointment on offense: Though RU shot 45% from the field, 40%+ from 3, 81% FT, but only had 11 assists on 29 made FG. Part of that was Bailey's ability and tendency to score one on one. Part of that was scoring off 13 offensive rebounds (no assists on some of those). Part if that was Harper also scoring in isolation.

I am sure there is, and will be, much more.

Players:

1) Bailey
: 36 minutes ... which is probably a little too much, as he looked like a couple of shits late were short. He is something else, eh? Early, he missed (maybe 2-6 FG to start), but of course, scorer that he is he kept shooting and started to hit his shots (including contested mid-range pull ups and turnarounds) ... and in the 2nd half hit is 3's (including back to back possessions - one after 4 quick passes, and one in transition). He was ... okay ... on defense (to those who said he should not cover Richmond in response to my pre-game post - maybe you were correct). Bailey was slow early in the game in closing on the 3-point line offensive players, but appeared to do better with that later. He WAS very good coming from the weak side to contest and block shots. He was okay with defensive rebounding, and will either need to improve, or get help from other RU players there. And he got to the FT line. In all, a nice debut, albeit in an exhibition game. I still think he may have games where he misses a lot of shots, but he will ALSO have games where he actually makes a better percentage of his shots and scores 30+. Bailey seems likely to lead RU in scoring, over even Harper. FYI, with Davis starting alongside Williams and Harper, Bailey started at the 4 spot.

2) Harper: 32 minutes, and a more than solid showing. Early in the game he looked like RU's best player, and the best player on the floor. Picked up 2 fouls and was not as effective, generally, in the 2nd half (though still good). He only had 1 assist - not sure why ... perhaps he played a little more isolation drives and not dishing off than I expected ... perhaps that was just what the defense gave. His step-back mid-range and 3-point shooting is truly high level, and he showed that off last night. His defense was generally solid - until he got his 3rd foul. He did commit 2 bad turnovers in the 2nd half - and at bad times. I am not worried about Harper, who is, and will be, very good.

3) Williams: Limited to 16 minutes, partly due to fouls (which did happen occasionally last year also). Other than the fouls, when in, played solid defense - did NOT generally force his offense ... but also was not much of a playmaker either. It is POSSIBLE, that Derkack, Acuff and Davis take minutes from him as the season goes on. I'll get to that in a moment.

4) Davis: My apologies to Jon Rothstein, who I believe stated Davis would start over Martini ... and for this game he was correct. Davis was solid - but 3-9 FG (I scored him as 3-7, but obviously missed a couple of shots - one of which I had as a turnover, not a shot - a strip, but must have been a shot). He remains a superior on-ball defener - and it showed in this game. His FT motion looks smoother (and he was 2-2). He will obviously get more than 10 minutes per game playing time - not sure he gets the 26 minutes he did last night (Acuff was given just a flavor, a taste, and will get more minutes when ready) - at the expense of Davis and Derkack.

5) Ogbole. So ... lots of debate about him. Was able to be on the court for 21 minutes, without material foul trouble. 2 blocked shots. 4 rebounds. 1-3 FG, 2-2 FT. I thought he was stripped on 1 post move (so either a turnover or another missed shot should have been recorded - but neither showed up). He is definitely improved from last season, but I am not sure he showed he was improved enough. But he got the minutes because Sommerville was hopeless on defense, and Martini had foul trouble (and Martini had trouble defending the post also). Jury is still out.

6) Hayes. Wow ... great showing. He's not going to go 4-4 FG every game, of course. But he was great in the 1st half. For some reason he appeared to have many fewer minutes in the 2nd half. I could be wrong about that but that is what it felt like watching the game. He did have 18 minutes overall. He also played a solid floor game: 2 rebounds, 2 nice assists, reasonable defense as best I could tell.

7) Derkack. Interesting game ... 30 minutes of floor time, 3rd most on the team behind Bailey and Harper. That will come down when Acuff is more game-ready (Acuff just 3 minutes). Subbed for Williams and Davis and Harper in the various rotations. His missed shots really hurt (1-7 FG, 0-2 3-point). None of the shots were bad shots (maybe 1, but they were mostly reasonable shots) - one can hope that in a larger sample size he will hit those types of shots (if he is 3-7, RU probably wins the game). And, he had 3 turnovers - all because he was trying to force things. BUT ... he was amazing in both defense and rebounding ... and I mean that seriously. He looked like a fantastic (not merely good) defender. He and Davis are RU's 2 best defenders by a wide margin (and Williams is an above-average defender, but Derkack and Davis are clearly a step above). Derkack did a terrific job on Richmond, for example, when he was covering him, was excellent in help, and a terror to the offense above the perimeter, very, very disruptive on defense. And he led RU in rebounding. If that remains consistent, Pikiell is going to give him real minutes - and hopefully he will hit 40% of his FG's. I was concerned about his transition defensively from the zone-orientation at Merrimack (though he was defensive player of the year in that conference) to the man to man concept of Pikiell. Not worried at all about that defensive transition now.

8) Martini. Only 11 minutes. Picked up 2 quick fouls in the 1st half after he entered the game. Did better in the 2nd half when he entered as a reserve - several good rebounds and scores off offensive rebounds. BUT ... could not defend the post at all against Ejiofor. He did miss his only 3 - way too small sample size. RU did go a couple of minutes with Bailey at the 5, going small - probably because neither Martini nor Sommerville could defend at all. If Martini really has trouble defending, he will lose playing time (to Grant - who did not play at all), to Sommerville, to Hayes, to Derkack). I know - small sample size.

9) Acuff. Only 3 minutes, just a taste - probably they wanted him just to get his feet wet, that he was not fully game-ready. Only took one shot, a missed 3 (it was a little hurried and forced, in my opinion). I am presuming he will be getting double digit minutes when game-ready. Obviously, we got not clue at all of what his role in the rotation will be. Presumably, his minutes come at the expense of Davis's 26 minutes in this game, and Derkack's 30 minutes.

10) Sommerville. Just 7 minutes ... entirely because he got completely schooled on defense several times - like "looked really bad" fooled. His ONE offensive move was really nice, and a nice pull-up mid-range (12 footer, maybe?). I suspect Sommerville will be one of the primary beneficiaries of the next 3 weeks of practice time, then the warm-up part of RU's schedule.

Grant and Dortch were DNP's - I suspect that does say where they are on the playing time sliding scale, eh?

And. becasue this was not long enough, I am sure I forgot things - which people will undoubtedly gleefully inform me of.
 
Surprised you watched the game and thought we looked like 7-10 in the B1G when we dominated SJU for stretches who should be a top top team in the (recently better than B1G) Big East. If Pike treated it as a real game, we likely would have won

Acuff "tweaked something" was reported elsewhere

Hopefully Dercack can figure out how to be passable as a shooter bc he did everything else and could be the ultimate glue guy this team needs

Sommerville's defense and rebounding was really poor. Disappointing bc he does not look ready to handle a large role. Fans don't want to hear it, but right now Ogbole is better. The one offensive move was super sweet, but offense isn't the concern

Martini can hopefully play the 5 against teams without a monster 5 like SJU, but he looked soooo short out there. Martini and Lathan offer zero rim protection

The 5 is a concern, but hopefully we can overcome it. Good thing it's 2024-25 where there are less good bigs that are focal points of the offense. Maybe something clicks with Lathan or Ogbole as the season rolls on
 
Great write up. I am not sure why Acuff played this game. I thought it would be a ramp up back.

I feel like Martini looked bigger in Princeton's conference than he will the big ten.
 
Surprised you watched the game and thought we looked like 7-10 in the B1G when we dominated SJU for stretches who should be a top top team in the (recently better than B1G) Big East. If Pike treated it as a real game, we likely would have won
If this was a sandwich. the bread was 3-17 and the meat was 17-3. We looked dreadful in the beginning and the end and really good in the middle.
 
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Your analysis says Dercack, JWill and JaMike played good/great defense. We know they have limitations shooting (that is being kind). These are the chess pieces Pike has. It will be very interesting how they are used. There could also be restrictions that we don't know about.

What are your thoughts of 10 minutes of Ace at the 5?
 
Pike was good in the experimenting. Since this is the toughest game before vegas, I think it was very important to try different things.. a win was much less important. I suppose my strongest take-away that Saint John's 1-2 punch of big men can go far if they stay out of foul trouble.

The other strong impression was how mature Harper's game is. I thought all this talk of one and done for our stars was a bit strong.. but you could see it in Harper. Whatever he is doing, keep doing it.

Now I am torn.. do I want this team to have no challenges before Vegas? Would be nice to see some domination... but will it help them get things right for when the real season begins.. the real challenges emerge.

Bailey can be amazing, as we saw.. but it seemed to me he also made assumptions about what he could get away with vs a defense and learned things have changed when facing St. Johns players vs even McDonald's HS All-Stars last year. If I had to guess now I'd suggest he'd be better off going 2 and out than 1 and done.. but its not my millions of dollars I'd be betting. If he is 1 and done, that probably means we all got to see an amazing season of Rutgers basketball and we'll always think of that fondly.

Good luck to us all.. stay healthy. As we see on the football side, that can make all the difference.
 
Small sample size but here's my take

1. Assuming no injuries, guys click and we learn from this game (blown lead, no killer instinct, D and Rebounding suspect at best), we should be a top 5 team in the league. Easily could be higher if things break right

2. We could, and should, make a deep run in the conference and NCAA tourney's, respectively

3. This is by far the most talented team I've seen in my lifetime OTB

4. Dylan is a pro's pro. He'll be most consistent player on the team

5. Ace will have nights with single digits, then others with 25 + points. Huge upside

6. Acruff / J Will. will be the 3rd and 4th options. Great issue to have

7. Derkack is a leader

8. Martini will have a big impact - reminds me of Sean Axani, does a lot of little things that don't show up in the box score

9. J Mike has that Montez out of control style in him, needs to play more in control

10. Zach will take minutes from Big O, and Somerville, if he learns to play a smigen of D, will be solid this year. I'd be thrilled with 20 minutes at the 5, combined, for O and Lathan this year

11. Losing Cliff hurts. Big time. If he opted to come back, sky's the limit

12. Hayes is clutch. Reminds me of Cam with his timely 3's.
 
I like the lion write up, but what I enjoy about the RU staff is that they see the game the way I was taught to play and how I learned in Hoops camps a very long time ago.....that means, work on your weaknesses in practice and try to expand your game, beyond your comfort levels. ...so when you are pushed beyond your limits, the staff finds out how players react or "chart out".

I will only isolate a couple of thoughts that make the final score ultimately irrelevant and why I believe this staff might be committed to finally pushing the tempo.

Derkack.....what I texted to someone during the game, was the staff tested him, by treating him like he was Paul Mulcahy....make him defend, switch and also make him run the offense at times and try to generate offense. 30 minutes is nowhere near where he will play once everyone is healthy and full speed, but his stat line looked like a lot of Mulcahy games, just with vicious and relentless defense. I grade his game as a B+, because his effort on defense disrupted SJU for extended stretches of possessions.

Center position- it was actually significantly better than I expected, because the staff also extended way more minutes to Ogbole, than would be in a realistic game. 21 minutes, stress-tested in crunch time to see how he performs. All in all, his hands are better and his catching and passing to Ace for a corner 3, is a play neither center last year makes cleanly or doesn't fumble away.

With Sommerville and Martini, both showed flashes of offense and I don't expect Martini to rebound in the big, or defend B1G caliber players. But the difference between Martini and others asked to play inside last year or two, is he scraps and finds points and can hit a 3.....just because he missed a 3, doesn't mean it wasn't a quick release and within the flow. He can offset what he may give up in terms of points on the defensive end.

Sommerville is by far the best RU big in a very long time. Plays within himself and you only learn defense by getting schooled and adjusting. I would be very careful with RU fans crying the blues about our bigs and Cliff/portal.

JMike also played beyond a normal level of required offense, but it gives an idea what he can do, against quality guards like St Johns presented. Davis is just going to look and play better in an up-tempo setting and offense, vs being asked to play half-court....

Why I'm not concerned is that RU actually outplayed the supposed up tempo magician in Pitino for extended stretches of the game, with no game planning.

My last point was that RU has arrived......but someone will say RU lost....LMAO......why did RU arrive last night....??

Because St Johns really REALLY felt the pressure to win the game.....the handful of SJU fans looked and saw 4K fans for an exhibition game at RU, with RU as the spotlight of the story. You could sense an amount of "this relevance thing is slipping away from the region to RU".....a program that would never have taken a RU game seriously, coached and rotated players like it mattered. It was like a prize fighter that is known and on its last legs, with a couple of hay makers.....

I think the RU staff has to prepare for everyone's best shot, now more than ever.....RU is "disrupting" the established old guard or way of thinking. Anyone watching the last 6 minutes of the game, saw a desperate team and one that was kinda like "OK, we're here, but I'm not sweating it".

RU is now in a rare position of having a bullseye on it.....just part of the growth process, even if KenPom has RU at 17th out of 18th in the preseason ranking. We have stolen the spotlight in the region and how we sustain that in recruiting and environment, is only UP and UP from here (2026 & 2027 recruits are taking notice).
 
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Pike was good in the experimenting. Since this is the toughest game before vegas, I think it was very important to try different things.. a win was much less important. I suppose my strongest take-away that Saint John's 1-2 punch of big men can go far if they stay out of foul trouble.

The other strong impression was how mature Harper's game is. I thought all this talk of one and done for our stars was a bit strong.. but you could see it in Harper. Whatever he is doing, keep doing it.

Now I am torn.. do I want this team to have no challenges before Vegas? Would be nice to see some domination... but will it help them get things right for when the real season begins.. the real challenges emerge.

Bailey can be amazing, as we saw.. but it seemed to me he also made assumptions about what he could get away with vs a defense and learned things have changed when facing St. Johns players vs even McDonald's HS All-Stars last year. If I had to guess now I'd suggest he'd be better off going 2 and out than 1 and done.. but its not my millions of dollars I'd be betting. If he is 1 and done, that probably means we all got to see an amazing season of Rutgers basketball and we'll always think of that fondly.

Good luck to us all.. stay healthy. As we see on the football side, that can make all the difference.
Ace scores 25 in his first ever scrimmage against elite competition and your first thought is that means he needs to stay another year?

I guess if he had a bad game he would become a 4 year player 🤷
 
Look, defense usually improves as season goes on, particularly for Rutgers. I understand that no Cliff, we are definitely weaker inside. But we dropped 85 on a great SJU team, were winning almost entire game, free throw shooting looked great (even Ogbole dropped two!), Hayes could be next Cam from deep, and RAC was only half full. Overall, last night was a success.
 
Ace scores 25 in his first ever scrimmage against elite competition and your first thought is that means he needs to stay another year?

I guess if he had a bad game he would become a 4 year player 🤷
8-18 3 TOs.. forced shots.. 1 assist.. 4/9 from 3 is golden but that also means he was 4/9 from 2.. for a big man. In 36 minutes we're not talking dbl/dbl or even threatening a dbl/dbl. And we did not win. PJ Hayes had a competitive, slightly superior, stat line proportionately to the minutes he played.

Forget the 25.. what did your eyes tell you when he was against St. John's best?

besides.. what are we really talking about? one more year while he is still growing, filling out? I even said he'd be betting millions.. meaning he could come out with one and done but maybe 2 would be better for him.

It is a question that the entire season will decide.. not one scrimmage.

But you do have a point.. I said Harper could be one and done and he had a similar stat line. Perhaps my eyes fooled me.. I gave more bias toward the early game impressions.
 
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Pike was good in the experimenting. Since this is the toughest game before vegas, I think it was very important to try different things.. a win was much less important. I suppose my strongest take-away that Saint John's 1-2 punch of big men can go far if they stay out of foul trouble.

The other strong impression was how mature Harper's game is. I thought all this talk of one and done for our stars was a bit strong.. but you could see it in Harper. Whatever he is doing, keep doing it.

Now I am torn.. do I want this team to have no challenges before Vegas? Would be nice to see some domination... but will it help them get things right for when the real season begins.. the real challenges emerge.

Bailey can be amazing, as we saw.. but it seemed to me he also made assumptions about what he could get away with vs a defense and learned things have changed when facing St. Johns players vs even McDonald's HS All-Stars last year. If I had to guess now I'd suggest he'd be better off going 2 and out than 1 and done.. but its not my millions of dollars I'd be betting. If he is 1 and done, that probably means we all got to see an amazing season of Rutgers basketball and we'll always think of that fondly.

Good luck to us all.. stay healthy. As we see on the football side, that can make all the difference.
Ace is definitely 1 and done..he’s projected now and will be picked in June more on potential than actual performance anyway. He has incredible upside and the experts know it.
 
8-18 3 TOs.. forced shots.. 1 assist.. 4/9 from 3 is golden but that also means he was 4/9 from 2.. for a big man. In 36 minutes we're not talking dbl/dbl or even threatening a dbl/dbl. And we did not win. PJ Hayes had a competitive, slightly superior, stat line proportionately to the minutes he played.

Forget the 25.. what did your eyes tell you when he was against St. John's best?

besides.. what are we really talking about? one more year while he is still growing, filling out? I even said he'd be betting millions.. meaning he could come out with one and done but maybe 2 would be better for him.

It is a question that the entire season will decide.. not one scrimmage.

But you do have a point.. I said Harper could be one and done and he had a similar stat line. Perhaps my eyes fooled me.. I gave more bias toward the early game impressions.
You're conflating college performance with NBA draft value. That's not what players get drafted on. It's all about ceiling and potential and Ace's ceiling is NBA superstar. Ace is pretty much a locked in top 5 draft pick so there is no chance he returns

I do agree that Ace has a lot to work on. On the court, Dylan plays like someone with years more experience but that only further emphasizes the fact that Ace is nowhere near his ceiling as a player
 
Surprised you watched the game and thought we looked like 7-10 in the B1G when we dominated SJU for stretches who should be a top top team in the (recently better than B1G) Big East. If Pike treated it as a real game, we likely would have won

Acuff "tweaked something" was reported elsewhere

Hopefully Dercack can figure out how to be passable as a shooter bc he did everything else and could be the ultimate glue guy this team needs

Sommerville's defense and rebounding was really poor. Disappointing bc he does not look ready to handle a large role. Fans don't want to hear it, but right now Ogbole is better. The one offensive move was super sweet, but offense isn't the concern

Martini can hopefully play the 5 against teams without a monster 5 like SJU, but he looked soooo short out there. Martini and Lathan offer zero rim protection

The 5 is a concern, but hopefully we can overcome it. Good thing it's 2024-25 where there are less good bigs that are focal points of the offense. Maybe something clicks with Lathan or Ogbole as the season rolls on
As you mentioned, the 5 is a concern. There were a lot of positives to take away from last night and I personally thought this team looked better than I thought they would. However, on the flip side, the 5 position overall looked worse than I expected. It was a glaring issue in the exhibition. The 5 level of play overall needs to improve as defensive rebounding and interior defense were nonexistent for long stretches of the game. Dylan and Ace can help cover up this glaring issue with their level of play, but the 5 spot will unfortunately limit the upside and ceiling of this team if it does not improve.
 
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Number one picks in say baseball or hockey don't always end in pros on day 1. Ace is a top 3 pick, 1 and done...but he needs time to develop
 
So ... I am posting this post-mortem BEFORE reading any other articles or views - as I often will do this season ... so as to convey my initial impressions "untainted" by other views. No doubt, after reading other accounts, I will take those into consideration and my opinions may evolve after such reviews. Be aware this is a long post (for those who complain about the length of my posts).

Understand that the view we just got is valuable - but there are still 3 full weeks before the first real game, and 5-6 weeks before the Vegas games (ND, Alabama, Houston). That is a lot of practice time to improve on fundamentals, especially on defense. Also, consider that because of how much practice is still to come, the team could and should look quite different in a month.

Understanding the limits of what can be learned about the team in an exhibition game with a lot of practice time remaining, and from a game where Pikiell stated in advance he was NOT going to use practice time to prep the team for the other players' tendencies (like they would normally do during the season game by game prep), I offer this VERY preliminary thought about the upcoming season:

Based SOLELY on this game, and assuming only "normal" and gradual in-season developmental improvements as if the season started LAST NIGHT (i.e. not 3 more weeks of practice before the first real game, nor 5 relatively easier games to start the season), I see RU, as it CURRENTLY is, as perhaps ranked #7 to #10 in the Big Ten, and a probably NCAA team (but not a top 8 seed). With those caveats, understand, also based on this ONE game, RU does have plenty of room to GROW as a team, as well.

I will start with the areas that RU will have to work on over the next 3 weeks, and through the early part of their season:

1) Rebounding. RU was beaten to the rebound too often, and had the ball dribble off their hands too much while attempting rebounds. And were badly outrebounded on the offensive glass, a major problem in this game ... and going forward unless this is improved upon. RU, as constructed, may not have to be the superior offensive rebounding team relative to their opponents, but they must improve, and close the gap. RU ended up with a good amount of its own offensive rebounds, but needs to improve its defensive rebounding.

2) Post Defense / Help Defense. I THINK these may be related in this game. I do need much more of a sample size to truly understand what was going on. But clearly, RU's post defense was not good in this game. I'll get to individual players later, but 2 things stood out in this game: Sommerville was absolutely abused defensively - and his minutes were limited severely because of that ... and Martini could not defend a post player with size and strength. Now, these are the sorts of things that can improve as RU's help defense rotations improve ... and will have to improve if RU wants to finish in the top third of the Big Ten.

3) Inability To Close - possibly due to untimely late turnovers. So ... RU led 79-70 with maybe 6-8 minutes left, and could not close the deal. In that stretch, RU had at least 4 turnovers: Ogbole stripped on post move, Bailey with a too aggressive cross court pass easily intercepted, Harper with a turnover after forcing himself inside the paint 1 on 3, and Williams on a drive to the rim, ball off him after his shot was blocked. Plus, something that probably would not have happened in a real game, when Harper got his 4th foul with 6:30 left, Pikiell left him in (presumably to see how he'd play with 4 fouls) ... Harper immediately played "ole" defense (not even trying, but literally just letting his player get easy shots) on back to back possessions, and was pulled. If I had to guess, this inability to close was a combination of Harper and Bailey perhaps being a little tired (short on shots, more careless), plus their inexperience ... both of which are fixable with practice, experience and slight tweaks in the substitution rotations.

Positive Team Signs (though a small sample size) - individual players comments to follow after:

1) Definitely better FT shooting.
RU was 18-22 FT - and almost every player's FT form looked solid (Ogbole and Davis looked improved, the new players look like they can all hit their FT's).

2) Much better scorers than last season - even with a small sample size. That does not mean RU will not have games where they miss plenty of shots (all teams have those games). Bailey, Harper and Hayes are better shooters and scorers than ANY players RU had last season. Any other offensive shortcomings of other players pale in comparison to the improved scoring potential of those 3 players. Too early to tell if Davis is improved as a scorer, and Williams had foul trouble and did not try many shots. It was only ONE game, and at home, so way too early to tell overall or longer term, but RU was 9-22 from 3 - 40% ... fueled by the correct guys taking the 3's: Bailey, Harper and Hayes took 1`7 of RU's 22 3's.

3) New Style of Offense. RU used a outside weave (with hand offs) for the most part, coupled with high screens ... and TONS of willing ball movement and passes. Bailey used screens less often than did Harper (as we saw in RU's intra-squad scrimmage), but he DID use screens. Bailey was the main RU player who went only one on one (Harper very occasionally - but often off screens) ... and I suspect that will continue, as when he is hitting his shots he is simply undefendable one on one. One fly in the ointment on offense: Though RU shot 45% from the field, 40%+ from 3, 81% FT, but only had 11 assists on 29 made FG. Part of that was Bailey's ability and tendency to score one on one. Part of that was scoring off 13 offensive rebounds (no assists on some of those). Part if that was Harper also scoring in isolation.

I am sure there is, and will be, much more.

Players:

1) Bailey
: 36 minutes ... which is probably a little too much, as he looked like a couple of shits late were short. He is something else, eh? Early, he missed (maybe 2-6 FG to start), but of course, scorer that he is he kept shooting and started to hit his shots (including contested mid-range pull ups and turnarounds) ... and in the 2nd half hit is 3's (including back to back possessions - one after 4 quick passes, and one in transition). He was ... okay ... on defense (to those who said he should not cover Richmond in response to my pre-game post - maybe you were correct). Bailey was slow early in the game in closing on the 3-point line offensive players, but appeared to do better with that later. He WAS very good coming from the weak side to contest and block shots. He was okay with defensive rebounding, and will either need to improve, or get help from other RU players there. And he got to the FT line. In all, a nice debut, albeit in an exhibition game. I still think he may have games where he misses a lot of shots, but he will ALSO have games where he actually makes a better percentage of his shots and scores 30+. Bailey seems likely to lead RU in scoring, over even Harper. FYI, with Davis starting alongside Williams and Harper, Bailey started at the 4 spot.

2) Harper: 32 minutes, and a more than solid showing. Early in the game he looked like RU's best player, and the best player on the floor. Picked up 2 fouls and was not as effective, generally, in the 2nd half (though still good). He only had 1 assist - not sure why ... perhaps he played a little more isolation drives and not dishing off than I expected ... perhaps that was just what the defense gave. His step-back mid-range and 3-point shooting is truly high level, and he showed that off last night. His defense was generally solid - until he got his 3rd foul. He did commit 2 bad turnovers in the 2nd half - and at bad times. I am not worried about Harper, who is, and will be, very good.

3) Williams: Limited to 16 minutes, partly due to fouls (which did happen occasionally last year also). Other than the fouls, when in, played solid defense - did NOT generally force his offense ... but also was not much of a playmaker either. It is POSSIBLE, that Derkack, Acuff and Davis take minutes from him as the season goes on. I'll get to that in a moment.

4) Davis: My apologies to Jon Rothstein, who I believe stated Davis would start over Martini ... and for this game he was correct. Davis was solid - but 3-9 FG (I scored him as 3-7, but obviously missed a couple of shots - one of which I had as a turnover, not a shot - a strip, but must have been a shot). He remains a superior on-ball defener - and it showed in this game. His FT motion looks smoother (and he was 2-2). He will obviously get more than 10 minutes per game playing time - not sure he gets the 26 minutes he did last night (Acuff was given just a flavor, a taste, and will get more minutes when ready) - at the expense of Davis and Derkack.

5) Ogbole. So ... lots of debate about him. Was able to be on the court for 21 minutes, without material foul trouble. 2 blocked shots. 4 rebounds. 1-3 FG, 2-2 FT. I thought he was stripped on 1 post move (so either a turnover or another missed shot should have been recorded - but neither showed up). He is definitely improved from last season, but I am not sure he showed he was improved enough. But he got the minutes because Sommerville was hopeless on defense, and Martini had foul trouble (and Martini had trouble defending the post also). Jury is still out.

6) Hayes. Wow ... great showing. He's not going to go 4-4 FG every game, of course. But he was great in the 1st half. For some reason he appeared to have many fewer minutes in the 2nd half. I could be wrong about that but that is what it felt like watching the game. He did have 18 minutes overall. He also played a solid floor game: 2 rebounds, 2 nice assists, reasonable defense as best I could tell.

7) Derkack. Interesting game ... 30 minutes of floor time, 3rd most on the team behind Bailey and Harper. That will come down when Acuff is more game-ready (Acuff just 3 minutes). Subbed for Williams and Davis and Harper in the various rotations. His missed shots really hurt (1-7 FG, 0-2 3-point). None of the shots were bad shots (maybe 1, but they were mostly reasonable shots) - one can hope that in a larger sample size he will hit those types of shots (if he is 3-7, RU probably wins the game). And, he had 3 turnovers - all because he was trying to force things. BUT ... he was amazing in both defense and rebounding ... and I mean that seriously. He looked like a fantastic (not merely good) defender. He and Davis are RU's 2 best defenders by a wide margin (and Williams is an above-average defender, but Derkack and Davis are clearly a step above). Derkack did a terrific job on Richmond, for example, when he was covering him, was excellent in help, and a terror to the offense above the perimeter, very, very disruptive on defense. And he led RU in rebounding. If that remains consistent, Pikiell is going to give him real minutes - and hopefully he will hit 40% of his FG's. I was concerned about his transition defensively from the zone-orientation at Merrimack (though he was defensive player of the year in that conference) to the man to man concept of Pikiell. Not worried at all about that defensive transition now.

8) Martini. Only 11 minutes. Picked up 2 quick fouls in the 1st half after he entered the game. Did better in the 2nd half when he entered as a reserve - several good rebounds and scores off offensive rebounds. BUT ... could not defend the post at all against Ejiofor. He did miss his only 3 - way too small sample size. RU did go a couple of minutes with Bailey at the 5, going small - probably because neither Martini nor Sommerville could defend at all. If Martini really has trouble defending, he will lose playing time (to Grant - who did not play at all), to Sommerville, to Hayes, to Derkack). I know - small sample size.

9) Acuff. Only 3 minutes, just a taste - probably they wanted him just to get his feet wet, that he was not fully game-ready. Only took one shot, a missed 3 (it was a little hurried and forced, in my opinion). I am presuming he will be getting double digit minutes when game-ready. Obviously, we got not clue at all of what his role in the rotation will be. Presumably, his minutes come at the expense of Davis's 26 minutes in this game, and Derkack's 30 minutes.

10) Sommerville. Just 7 minutes ... entirely because he got completely schooled on defense several times - like "looked really bad" fooled. His ONE offensive move was really nice, and a nice pull-up mid-range (12 footer, maybe?). I suspect Sommerville will be one of the primary beneficiaries of the next 3 weeks of practice time, then the warm-up part of RU's schedule.

Grant and Dortch were DNP's - I suspect that does say where they are on the playing time sliding scale, eh?

And. becasue this was not long enough, I am sure I forgot things - which people will undoubtedly gleefully inform me of.
Outstanding post, lion.
 
I actually thought martini did a solid job. Guys will get to their post moves but thought he at least gave a bit of havoc to Zuby
 
Good write up OP. I was there and a few quick thoughts.

1) Regarding OP points #1 and #2 - boy do we miss Cliff (naysayers regarding Cliff’s lost value are something that rhymes with boron)
2) Dercack played a surprising/puzzling number of minutes (more than JWill). He was solid (HE WILL CONTRIBUTE) but still seemed a step slow, an inch short, and lukewarm on offense.
3) I was impressed with Hayes… with our offensive weapons (Ace and Dylan) he will have some big games as the 3rd/4th threat. Good hustle and firey on the court.
4) Davis Yin and Yang… Yin is his unbelievable motor, steals and disruptive defense is his realm. Yang - like last year has to learn to kick it out, jump stop/pull up shot, or dribble through at times n stead of attacking 1 on 3. PS - him hitting a 3 was nice and he was close to having 7 or 8 steals (he will be good on FC trap/press, and on-ball defender). LOVE HIS HUSTLE.
5) Dylan is the real deal and is going to be fun to watch and easy to root for. Awesome all around.
6) Ace is going to amaze us a lot and frustrate a us a little. He is hands down the most gifted player physically I have seen in my RU fandom (going back to ‘76). It’s going to be fun.
7) We will likely foul a lot this year.
 
I actually thought martini did a solid job. Guys will get to their post moves but thought he at least gave a bit of havoc to Zuby
I also found Martini did decently, at least for the first shot. Problem was we weren't grabbing the defensive boards, so the putback (or worse, second or third put back) scored.
 
You're conflating college performance with NBA draft value. That's not what players get drafted on. It's all about ceiling and potential and Ace's ceiling is NBA superstar. Ace is pretty much a locked in top 5 draft pick so there is no chance he returns

I do agree that Ace has a lot to work on. On the court, Dylan plays like someone with years more experience but that only further emphasizes the fact that Ace is nowhere near his ceiling as a player
Exactly. Well said.
 
I was out after “Beware this is a long post.” I enjoy the boards and will dedicate some time, but I prefer to view a number of threads and topics from a variety of contributors. The manifestos are not for me. Nothing personal.
 
8-18 3 TOs.. forced shots.. 1 assist.. 4/9 from 3 is golden but that also means he was 4/9 from 2.. for a big man. In 36 minutes we're not talking dbl/dbl or even threatening a dbl/dbl. And we did not win. PJ Hayes had a competitive, slightly superior, stat line proportionately to the minutes he played.

Forget the 25.. what did your eyes tell you when he was against St. John's best?

besides.. what are we really talking about? one more year while he is still growing, filling out? I even said he'd be betting millions.. meaning he could come out with one and done but maybe 2 would be better for him.

It is a question that the entire season will decide.. not one scrimmage.

But you do have a point.. I said Harper could be one and done and he had a similar stat line. Perhaps my eyes fooled me.. I gave more bias toward the early game impressions.
Bruh, are you smoking crack, or just know nothing about basketball? Ace is about as sure a top 5 pick as there is, and more likely top 3, unless he breaks a leg this year. He would be starting for a bad NBA team right now this year if they would have been allowed to draft him.
 
I was out after “Beware this is a long post.” I enjoy the boards and will dedicate some time, but I prefer to view a number of threads and topics from a variety of contributors. The manifestos are not for me. Nothing personal.
Whatever ... why waste your time even commenting on how uninterested you are? If you are not interested, then ignore it ... geez ...

FYI, you mislabel this in your disdain for lengthy analysis. Not a "manifesto", which is defined as being a "public declaration of policy and aims." By labelling it a manifesto, you also put a rather pejorative spin (definition of pejorative = "expressing contempt or disapproval") on it, without even bothering to read it. No policy or aims here, just one person's opinion and analysis as to what was seen on the court.
 
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Good write up OP. I was there and a few quick thoughts.

1) Regarding OP points #1 and #2 - boy do we miss Cliff (naysayers regarding Cliff’s lost value are something that rhymes with boron)
2) Dercack played a surprising/puzzling number of minutes (more than JWill). He was solid (HE WILL CONTRIBUTE) but still seemed a step slow, an inch short, and lukewarm on offense.
3) I was impressed with Hayes… with our offensive weapons (Ace and Dylan) he will have some big games as the 3rd/4th threat. Good hustle and firey on the court.
4) Davis Yin and Yang… Yin is his unbelievable motor, steals and disruptive defense is his realm. Yang - like last year has to learn to kick it out, jump stop/pull up shot, or dribble through at times n stead of attacking 1 on 3. PS - him hitting a 3 was nice and he was close to having 7 or 8 steals (he will be good on FC trap/press, and on-ball defender). LOVE HIS HUSTLE.
5) Dylan is the real deal and is going to be fun to watch and easy to root for. Awesome all around.
6) Ace is going to amaze us a lot and frustrate a us a little. He is hands down the most gifted player physically I have seen in my RU fandom (going back to ‘76). It’s going to be fun.
7) We will likely foul a lot this year.
Cannot disagree with any of these thoughts.

On Derkack and his minutes: 1) Williams had foul trouble, and 2) Acuff only played 3 minutes (not game-ready and heard maybe a "twinge" so not played more as a precaution). I'd be very surprised if Derkack got more than 15-20 mpg on average ... and I was even wondering if he would get that many. But I have to say I was EXTREMELY impressed with his defense ... he was REALLY good defensively ... and his rebounding was very good also.

On another thread, in response to someone saying Pikiell may have stated Derkack was like a Mulcahy on steroids, I suggested he was less like Mulcahy and more like McConnell-lite (which IS meant as actually more of a complement than comparing him to Mulcahy). In just the 1 game, and an exhibition on top of that, it sure looked to me like Derkack could play the role of a 6'6"+ defensive stopper (maybe not quite as good as McConnell, who was the best defender in the country 2 straight seasons), but similar - and maybe even better than Mag both defensively and rebounding ... but in some ways better than McConnell offensively (not shooting-wise - we won't know that yet) - though he did average 17 ppg last year as a soph), but much more of an inclination to pass and keep the offense flowing than McConnell. For years, when McConnell had the ball in his hands, the offense completely stalled and all motion and movement stopped. Derkack is not like that.

I do hope that with 3 more weeks of practice, followed by 2+ weeks of easier games and practices, Pikiell and staff can help the team improve a bit defensively, to enable the players to paly a little better defense without fouling. Hoping.
 
Surprised you watched the game and thought we looked like 7-10 in the B1G when we dominated SJU for stretches who should be a top top team in the (recently better than B1G) Big East. If Pike treated it as a real game, we likely would have won

Acuff "tweaked something" was reported elsewhere

Hopefully Dercack can figure out how to be passable as a shooter bc he did everything else and could be the ultimate glue guy this team needs

Sommerville's defense and rebounding was really poor. Disappointing bc he does not look ready to handle a large role. Fans don't want to hear it, but right now Ogbole is better. The one offensive move was super sweet, but offense isn't the concern

Martini can hopefully play the 5 against teams without a monster 5 like SJU, but he looked soooo short out there. Martini and Lathan offer zero rim protection

The 5 is a concern, but hopefully we can overcome it. Good thing it's 2024-25 where there are less good bigs that are focal points of the offense. Maybe something clicks with Lathan or Ogbole as the season rolls on
In re the "where RU might rank in the Big Ten" ... Frankly, 7th or 8th in the Big Ten might be a #7 to #9 seed ... that is top 35 in the country. That ain't shabby. And that does not preclude a run in the NCAA, assuming those 2 star frosh continue to mature (which I WOULD expect).

It is hard for me to see RU higher than that unless the defense improves, and/or the rebounding improves. I would be surprised if at least the defense does not improve - there is a lot of practice time left. Rebounding may be more difficult to fix as much. The Big Ten continues to have a fair number of teams with big, strong post players (even if not Edey-like stars).

Also, I do recognize this is NOT the team we will see in a month or so ... Acuff should be back more fully, which adds a different dimension, a positive one, on offense, making RU more dangerous. And potentially allows Harper and Bailey to be more rested at the end of games ... which will also help, theoretically, with closing out games as they gain experience. And I surely hope and expect Sommerville to improve - which would allow him to play more minutes - which will also help the team quite a bit.
 
Good write up OP. I was there and a few quick thoughts.

1) Regarding OP points #1 and #2 - boy do we miss Cliff (naysayers regarding Cliff’s lost value are something that rhymes with boron)
2) Dercack played a surprising/puzzling number of minutes (more than JWill). He was solid (HE WILL CONTRIBUTE) but still seemed a step slow, an inch short, and lukewarm on offense.
3) I was impressed with Hayes… with our offensive weapons (Ace and Dylan) he will have some big games as the 3rd/4th threat. Good hustle and firey on the court.
4) Davis Yin and Yang… Yin is his unbelievable motor, steals and disruptive defense is his realm. Yang - like last year has to learn to kick it out, jump stop/pull up shot, or dribble through at times n stead of attacking 1 on 3. PS - him hitting a 3 was nice and he was close to having 7 or 8 steals (he will be good on FC trap/press, and on-ball defender). LOVE HIS HUSTLE.
5) Dylan is the real deal and is going to be fun to watch and easy to root for. Awesome all around.
6) Ace is going to amaze us a lot and frustrate a us a little. He is hands down the most gifted player physically I have seen in my RU fandom (going back to ‘76). It’s going to be fun.
7) We will likely foul a lot this year.
Cliff was never coming back. As I mentioned in another thread, he now realizes he is not going to play in the NBA, and went for the bag at Alabama (hard to blame him). And I think it is easier for him to accept a lesser role on a very experienced team that is expected to make a big run vs playing a similar lesser role at Rutgers behind two freshmen.
 
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Whatever ... why waste your time even commenting on how uninterested you are? If you are not interested, then ignore it ... geez ...

FYI, you mislabel this in your disdain for lengthy analysis. Not a "manifesto", which is defined as being a "public declaration of policy and aims." By labelling it a manifesto, you also put a rather pejorative spin (definition of pejorative = "expressing contempt or disapproval") on it, without even bothering to read it. No policy or aims here, just one person's opinion and analysis as to what was seen on the court.
I said nothing personal, but since you’re clearly trying to be the smartest guy in the room, also try not getting your panties in a bunch.
 
I was out after “Beware this is a long post.” I enjoy the boards and will dedicate some time, but I prefer to view a number of threads and topics from a variety of contributors. The manifestos are not for me. Nothing personal.
For me I hate the complainers 😬
 
Cliff was never coming back. As I mentioned in another thread, he now realizes he is not going to play in the NBA, and went for the bag at Alabama (hard to blame him). And I think it is easier for him to accept a lesser role on a very experienced team that is expected to make a big run vs playing a similar lesser role at Rutgers behind two freshmen.
OK … still doesn’t diminish his lost value. I wish we were the ones paying him.
 
Whatever ... why waste your time even commenting on how uninterested you are? If you are not interested, then ignore it ... geez ...

FYI, you mislabel this in your disdain for lengthy analysis. Not a "manifesto", which is defined as being a "public declaration of policy and aims." By labelling it a manifesto, you also put a rather pejorative spin (definition of pejorative = "expressing contempt or disapproval") on it, without even bothering to read it. No policy or aims here, just one person's opinion and analysis as to what was seen on the court.
Appreciate that you are willing to state your case, and try to back it up with facts. Not unreasonable and well articulated. Every post can’t be “we need to rebound better” or “Ace and Dylan are phenomenal”. Thanks for adding to the substance. Just admit you were wrong when (inevitably) you make an error and you’re money.

Btw what’s the lion thing all about man. Got me thinking about some other B1G team out west when I see your handle.
 
Appreciate that you are willing to state your case, and try to back it up with facts. Not unreasonable and well articulated. Every post can’t be “we need to rebound better” or “Ace and Dylan are phenomenal”. Thanks for adding to the substance. Just admit you were wrong when (inevitably) you make an error and you’re money.

Btw what’s the lion thing all about man. Got me thinking about some other B1G team out west when I see your handle.
Not PSU or ... who is the team out West? Washington? They are the Cougars, no, not the Lions? ... Another school, not a competitor of RU ... not even in the same class as RU athletically. But I grew up with RU, going to games with my Dad (RU Class of '47) since the late 1960's (football and hoops). RU is my only college sports interest.

I make plenty of errors ... and since my analyses are posted, my errors, when they occur, become pretty obvious, eh? Can't hide from them. Anyway, my "analyses" are just one person's opinion, not worth any more than another person's opinion, even if I strongly argue for them until proven wrong. It is just how I process my fandom of sports, with analysis (whether hoops, football or baseball, in particular). I score while I watch the games, I analyze before and after.
 
Not PSU or ... who is the team out West? Washington? They are the Cougars, no, not the Lions? ... Another school, not a competitor of RU ... not even in the same class as RU athletically. But I grew up with RU, going to games with my Dad (RU Class of '47) since the late 1960's (football and hoops). RU is my only college sports interest.

I make plenty of errors ... and since my analyses are posted, my errors, when they occur, become pretty obvious, eh? Can't hide from them. Anyway, my "analyses" are just one person's opinion, not worth any more than another person's opinion, even if I strongly argue for them until proven wrong. It is just how I process my fandom of sports, with analysis (whether hoops, football or baseball, in particular). I score while I watch the games, I analyze before and after.
I was joking about PSU and was joking about admitting being wrong since we’ve all seen some wild back pedaling before here.
 
I watched Ace and Dylan play in high school and am impressed by how little drop off there seemed to be now that they are playing against experienced college players instead of high school kids. The notable differences were that Ace wasn’t an elite rebounder and Dylan didn’t have many assists and turned the ball over in the final minutes of the game. Given the level of competition, they were impressive. Definitely excited about seeing them play this season.
 
In re the "where RU might rank in the Big Ten" ... Frankly, 7th or 8th in the Big Ten might be a #7 to #9 seed ... that is top 35 in the country. That ain't shabby. And that does not preclude a run in the NCAA, assuming those 2 star frosh continue to mature (which I WOULD expect).

It is hard for me to see RU higher than that unless the defense improves, and/or the rebounding improves. I would be surprised if at least the defense does not improve - there is a lot of practice time left. Rebounding may be more difficult to fix as much. The Big Ten continues to have a fair number of teams with big, strong post players (even if not Edey-like stars).

Also, I do recognize this is NOT the team we will see in a month or so ... Acuff should be back more fully, which adds a different dimension, a positive one, on offense, making RU more dangerous. And potentially allows Harper and Bailey to be more rested at the end of games ... which will also help, theoretically, with closing out games as they gain experience. And I surely hope and expect Sommerville to improve - which would allow him to play more minutes - which will also help the team quite a bit.
I don't think most B1G teams have the offensive firepower to hang with Rutgers. They won't have a player like Richmond. How many B1G teams will have a dominate 5 as good as SJU?
 
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