Projections and RPI’s

[huskersalways]

Pretty down year for the Big 10 to only have 2 teams in the top 25 RPI. It’ll help to start playing conference games but not many big wins for teams to date. Some publications starting to say Big 10 is a 4 bid league this year. I would have to agree with them currently and 4 would be stretching it.
Here are some projections:

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/by-conference/


NCAA RPI (12/26)
1. Duke
2. Xavier
3. North Carolina
4. Arizona State
5. Villanova
6. TCU
7. Michigan State
8. Texas A&M
9. Tennessee
10. Oklahoma
11. Arkansas
12. Purdue
13. Temple
14. Seton Hall
15. Missouri
16. Syracuse
17. Rhode Island
18. Kansas
19. St. John's
20. Clemson
21. Arizona
22. Wichita State
23. Nevada
24. Lipscomb
25. Virginia
-------------------------------
36. Michigan
50. Minnesota
59. Ohio State
69. Maryland
74. Northwestern
81. Nebraska
105. Wisconsin
111. Penn State
122. Indiana
142. Illinois
158. Iowa
166. Rutgers

 

[zebnatto]

Gotta realize there are no pencilled in wins.

 

[bac2therac]

I think eventually we get up to 5 with Maryland and a 6 may slip in if they get hot...that would be either OSU or Northwestern. I think the rest ships already sailed for various reasons, RU would actually have the best shot of the rest if not for the horrific SOS

 

[gordel1]

This website is garbage...they have ASU as a 3 seed?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Let's let this play out. B1G isn't as down as people think, IMO

 

[huskersalways]

Let's let this play out. B1G isn't as down as people think, IMO

I think there are 2 damn good teams, 7 average at best teams, and 5 poor teams. It’s going to be a year where the conference keeps itself from getting to many teams in. Mediocrity is going to eat it alive when they play each other and end up with a jumbled mess at the end of the year and very few with a resume to get to the dance.

 

[BoroKnight]

The conference is not doing this to itself. At this point, everyone has played two league games and those are the numbers. Not good.

The RPI, it took people years to realize, is not the be-all and end-all, but it sure does say a lot, and what it says is the Big Ten is not that strong this year. And beating each other is not going to help that much. Only way we avoid the four-bid fate is if the same few teams take care of business and a clear stratification occurs.

 

[BOGDANOVICH]

Rutgers beats #14 Seton Hall and #19 St.John's and it is ranked 166TH? This makes no sense.

 

[huskersalways]

Rutgers beats #14 Seton Hall and #19 St.John's and it is ranked 166TH? This makes no sense.

The St John’s game was an exhibition game and does not count.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The old RPI was....
25% your winning percentage
50% your opponents winning percentage
25% your opponents opponents win %

I think now you get extra credit for road wins

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

.6 for a home win and 1.4 for a road win

 

[bac2therac]

THE RPI IS TRASH BECAUSE THE SOS IS ABOMINABLE....SOS OF 194

and that includes having the #7, 14, 40 and 50 ranked teams on the schedule

just for non conference it is 288

RU has played 4 schools plus 300 rpi and will play 307 Hartford next

RU lost to 181 Stony Brook

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Our RPI will go down no matter what happens with Hartford game

 

[kcg88]

Playing the bottom of the barrel kills your RPI. The way to game RPI is to play (and beat of course) teams like Stony Brook, not teams like Hartford. The smart teams don't schedule games with teams who are going to be at the bottom of the low-major conferences. For instance while TCU played only two top-50 teams in the OOC, they also only played one team below 250. In contrast we've played seven such games.

Now the big difference of course is that I don't think we put together our schedule to maximize our RPI this year. I hope that changes as we improve and are in the mix for a tournament bid because if the committee is going to rely on an easily-manipulated stat then you better manipulate it.

 

[RUJMM78]

Playing the bottom of the barrel kills your RPI. The way to game RPI is to play (and beat of course) teams like Stony Brook, not teams like Hartford. The smart teams don't schedule games with teams who are going to be at the bottom of the low-major conferences. For instance while TCU played only two top-50 teams in the OOC, they also only played one team below 250. In contrast we've played seven such games.

Now the big difference of course is that I don't think we put together our schedule to maximize our RPI this year. I hope that changes as we improve and are in the mix for a tournament bid because if the committee is going to rely on an easily-manipulated stat then you better manipulate it.

The easy out of conference schedule was made to achieve a winning season .The loss to Stony Brook will make achieving that goal more difficult because there is no margin for error.As the talent increases fans should expect a more difficult out of conference schedule including road games.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Playing the bottom of the barrel kills your RPI. The way to game RPI is to play (and beat of course) teams like Stony Brook, not teams like Hartford. The smart teams don't schedule games with teams who are going to be at the bottom of the low-major conferences. For instance while TCU played only two top-50 teams in the OOC, they also only played one team below 250. In contrast we've played seven such games.

Now the big difference of course is that I don't think we put together our schedule to maximize our RPI this year. I hope that changes as we improve and are in the mix for a tournament bid because if the committee is going to rely on an easily-manipulated stat then you better manipulate it.

Incorrect. RPI doesn't care which team on your schedule you beat. It cares whether the wins or home and away. It makes zero difference beating SHU and losing to SB OR beating SB and losing to SHU.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Actually reading your post I think you are correct...playing RPI game is about who you schedule and I think that is what you are saying.

maximizing RPI vs. maximizing $?
Play local teams on the road can negate the sting of bad SOS by getting the road win.

If we feel we are a NCAA T contender it will be very interesting what our schedule looks like. Need a schedule where 19 or 20 wins gets you in.

 

[kcg88]

Unless they've changed the formula, this still applies: http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2015/12/how-to-inflate-your-resume-how-texas.html

Key takeaway, from the 2015 season (emphasis mine):

Here's an extreme example from last season:

Xavier went just 23-14 due to a very difficult schedule, which was why they finished 22nd in Pomeroy and earned a 6 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Albany went 24-9 despite not being a very good team thanks to a very soft schedule, which was why they were just 128th in Pomeroy and earned just a 14 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

On first glance, the RPI seems to have these teams rated properly: Xavier was 28th in RPI and 8th in RPI SOS, while Albany was 104th in RPI and 277th in RPI SOS.

The problem? Via the RPI formula, your RPI SOS is better off facing Albany than facing Xavier. In fact, facing Albany at home would be treated better than facing Xavier on the road. Imagine you were a team that just narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament, such as Temple. Via the Sagarin ratings, Temple would have been a 10 point underdog at Xavier and a 10 point favorite at home vs Albany. Yet they'd get more credit for the Albany game. That's a massive gap for creative coaches to exploit.​

 

[bac2therac]

you want to schedule better low majors, not the worst ones, there are schools that have empolyees whose jobs are to numbers crunch and come up with very good projected SOS. RU just went out and schedule some of the worst of the worst and played all of them at home.

 

[RutgHoops]

Our SOS last season was #66. Nine (9) teams received at large bids with a worse SOS than #66. Our OOC is fine and because we play in what is normally one of the two or three toughest leagues in the country our OOC will have little to no impact on an NCAA bid should RU ever finish .500 or better in league. However, our OOC may/will matter in seeding. Here's to hoping it matters soon.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I guess with a 20 game schedule the math changes a bit.

Arguing with rutghoops....10-2 10-8 1-1 21-11 probably doesn't get it done this year with this schedule. Not 100% sure though.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Kenpom has enough data to be useful....smells like 6 to me

MSU 25-4 IN
PU 24-6 IN
Mich 20-10 IN
MD 20-10 IN

BUBBLE
OSU 19-11
MIN 19-11
PSU 19-11

OUTSIDE LOOKING IN
NW 17-13

 

[RutgHoops]

I guess with a 20 game schedule the math changes a bit.

Arguing with rutghoops....10-2 10-8 1-1 21-11 probably doesn't get it done this year with this schedule. Not 100% sure though.

I think that resume is 95% in the tournament. As a point of comparison 2016-17 USC Trojans and Providence:

USC: SOS 71- 14-0/10-8/1-1--11 seed
PC: SOS: 52- 10-2/10-8/0-1-- 11 seed

And I'll add Illinois which was a "last four out" or "next four out" if I recall:

Ill: SOS: 44- 10-3/8-10/0-1- That resume "easily" made the NIT as a 2 Seed

 

[bac2therac]

Our SOS last season was #66. Nine (9) teams received at large bids with a worse SOS than #66. Our OOC is fine and because we play in what is normally one of the two or three toughest leagues in the country our OOC will have little to no impact on an NCAA bid should RU ever finish .500 or better in league. However, our OOC may/will matter in seeding. Here's to hoping it matters soon.

our OOC schedule is the problem...not the straight up SOS, every power conference school will have an overall top 80 schedule as there are only what 6 top conferences so thats about 80 schools or less.....it will have major impact especially in a year where the Big 10 is considered down....going 9-9 but RU could do that with just 1 top 50 win...going 1-7 vs top 50 doesnt get you in...

also last year our non conference SOS was 341..one of the worst in the country

i see your above using Illinois and USC but you have to look deeper into SOS nonconference, I have been following this for years with the bubble stuff and its one of things that keeps SEC schools out. Illinois was 5-8 vs top 50 and 10-10vs top 100...their non conference SOS was 40..the overall SOS was 25...they played a tough OOC schedule, bad comparison to RU whose OOC sos is going to be like 230 but probably even worse

RU would have to hope that every Big 10 school finishes in the top 100...not so sure of that happening this year..in fact unlikely given the early results

 

[RUTrack94]

Who cares ...

 

[Rhuarc]

Going forward, our OOC strength of schedule will undoubtedly get better. I'm more concerned about committing to 2 game series and getting stuck playing the away games all in the same season. There needs to be more balance to the schedule than having a million home games to start the season.

 

[Unionst]

Who cares ...

Clearly the people having the discussion do. Is it too complicated for you to follow?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Clearly the people having the discussion do. Is it too complicated for you to follow?

All this stuff is what makes college basketball great