Quantifying the passing game (2016-present)

[Randal7]

My gut has told me the passing offense has been historically bad since Chris Ash took over and through the present...

But...I'm a numbers guys. I needed to see the data for myself.

The results confirmed what I suspected. Since 2016 among FBS teams Rutgers has the:
- 5th fewest average passing yards per game at 173.3; three of those teams worse than us run the triple option (GA Tech, Army, Air force)

- 5th fewest average passing touchdowns per season at 11.4; again, three of those teams run the triple option (GA Tech, Army, Air force)

- 3rd lowest passer rating per season at 115.3

The data tells us we are performing in the lower 5% of FBS as a passing offense, and adjusted for scheme (i.e. teams that predominantly run in the triple option), we are the lower 1%.

We aren't an "outlier" in terms of moribund performance, but we are persistently poor from a quantitative standpoint and the data is certainly remarkably consistent in that story.

 

[mdk01]

It would be interesting, though probably impossible, to quantify the quality of the offensive line during that time frame. The last of the bumper OL crop in the 2012 recruiting class were leaving the scene right around the beginning of that time.

 

[realhoops2]

It would be interesting, though probably impossible, to quantify the quality of the offensive line during that time frame. The last of the bumper OL crop in the 2012 recruiting class were leaving the scene right around the beginning of that time.

I get your point and I could be wrong but I don't believe the 3 int's thrown in the 2nd half were due to poor oline play

 

[mdk01]

I get your point and I could be wrong but I don't believe the 3 int's thrown in the 2nd half were due to poor oline play

That's 1 game not 7 years. That's like saying Nova's 6 interception game vs. Kent St. sums up 2003-20015.

 

[RUChoppin]

We weren't exactly lighting the world on fire prior to 2016, either. Taking a look at numbers since Teel/Britt left.

2015: Passing yards (207.1 - 86th), Pass Eff (138.66 - 53rd), 19 TD, 12 INT (Laviano)
2014: Passing yards (277.4 - 68th), Pass Eff (138.35 - 44th), 22 TDs, 13 INT (Nova)
2013: Passing yards (235.6 - 62nd), Pass Eff (118.98 - 93rd), 22 TDs, 22 INT (Nova/Dodd)
2012: Passing yards (208.5 - 86th), Pass Eff (126.19 - 80th), 23 TDs, 16 INT (Nova)
2011: Passing yards (241.23 - 52nd), Pass Eff (117.21 - 95th), 21 TDs, 16 INT (Dodd/Nova)
2010: Passing yards (194.00 - 79th), Pass Eff (124.78 - 76th), 16 TDs, 10 INT (Dodd)
2009: Passing Yards (191.92 - 89th), Pass Eff (123.61 - 77th), 15 TDs, 10 INT (Savage)

 

[Shelby65]

2016 doesn’t matter. Wouldn’t be fair to just look at Schiano’s 2.5 years given what he inherited, but I think a 5 year window is a better assessment.

 

[Randal7]

In 2006 on an 11 win team we threw for 12 TDs.

 

[mdk01]

In 2006 on an 11 win team we threw for 12 TDs.

Of course if Cincinnati hadn't committed multiple pass interference penalties it would have been 15 or 16. 😉

 

[tomatocan]

2016 doesn’t matter. Wouldn’t be fair to just look at Schiano’s 2.5 years given what he inherited, but I think a 5 year window is a better assessment.

It does matter because this data is a comparison to every other FBS school over this period. What if everyone of these teams had the luxury of deleting one of its years because of new coaches, poor recruiting, rebuilding, etc.

 

[LotusAggressor]

In 2006 on an 11 win team we threw for 12 TDs.

I always thought that team should have been better offensively. With Rice, Leonard, Harris, Britt, and Underwood, and a great OL, it was surprising that play action passing wasn't emphasized more.

 

[Plum Street]

I always thought that team should have been better offensively. With Rice, Leonard, Harris, Britt, and Underwood, and a great OL, it was surprising that play action passing wasn't emphasized more.

Teel was a game manager in 2006. Then he played great at West Virginia and we lost ironically

 

[nutfromSEC117]

Don’t need data or analytics … just use your 2 eyes , how many QB’s every weekend do you say to family/friend or yourself ..” geez if we had this kid we might be 5-1 “

 

[Randal7]

Don’t need data or analytics … just use your 2 eyes , how many QB’s every weekend do you say to family/friend or yourself ..” geez if we had this kid we might be 5-1 “

Every game I watch I say that. Including the temple QB

 

[Randal7]

Teel was a game manager in 2006. Then he played great at West Virginia and we lost ironically

He also was very good in the bowl game. But yes, you are correct

 

[mdk01]

Don’t need data or analytics … just use your 2 eyes , how many QB’s every weekend do you say to family/friend or yourself ..” geez if we had this kid we might be 5-1 “

Every game I watch I say that. Including the temple QB

You picture them behind the RU offensive line when you think that?

 

[RUChoppin]

Teel was a game manager in 2006. Then he played great at West Virginia and we lost ironically

Townsend drop, and the PI on Rice on the 2pt conversion attempt....

 

[Plum Street]

Townsend drop, and the PI on Rice on the 2pt conversion attempt....

Defense couldn’t stop a backup qb . That’s where game was lost

 

[Rufaninga]

You can spin #s so many ways.

What I took from this,
We have a great young RB and QBs that struggle to throw. Let's switch to Triple option :)

 

[NickRU714]

In 2006 on an 11 win team we threw for 12 TDs.

Ok so?
And in 2016 on a 2 win team we threw for 11 TDs.

Are people still trying to make the point we don't need to score points to win games?

 

[Randal7]

Ok so?
And in 2016 on a 2 win team we threw for 11 TDs.

Are people still trying to make the point we don't need to score points to win games?

My point there was, we’ve never had a dominant passing attack. Not Schiano 1.0 or 2.0

 

[RUChoppin]

Defense couldn’t stop a backup qb . That’s where game was lost

What? They were the #3 scoring offense in the country at 39 pts/g, and we held them to 23 in regulation time at their place. That game wasn't on the defense. Townsend dropped a sure TD and we had to kick a FG from their 4 in the 4th quarter.

 

[Plum Street]

What? They were the #3 scoring offense in the country at 39 pts/g, and we held them to 23 in regulation time at their place. That game wasn't on the defense. Townsend dropped a sure TD and we had to kick a FG from their 4 in the 4th quarter.

Up 3, 4 minutes to go. Stop the backup and we win.

 

[Randal7]

Up 3, 4 minutes to go. Stop the backup and we win.

Ya that Townsend drop loomed very very large. Steve slaton also fumbled.

 

[RUChoppin]

Up 3, 4 minutes to go. Stop the backup and we win.

Or catch that TD, or not get stopped in the red zone, or not have the Slaton fumble taken away, or make our final FG.... defense did its job throughout.

 

[RU Cheese]

Lol. Okay, ignore passing TDs then. You see the bottom 1% of passing yards and passer rating? It's embarassing and literally amongst, if not the worst, the worst in the country.

 

[Randal7]

Couple more interesting data points:

Average interceptions: Rutgers is 13th BEST here at 7.4 / season -- not bad; indicative that, versus peers, INTs alone aren't a huge issue

Average differential (TDs - INTs): Rutgers is 9th worst here at +4. Meaning, on average, we throw 4 more TDs than INTs. Not great; like a sharpe ratio in finance, we aren't getting a great return on investment for the risk we're taking with passing.

 

[Plum Street]

Ya that Townsend drop loomed very very large. Steve slaton also fumbled.

Yes but still . Our greatest defense and coach of all time should have stopped a backup qb . I think even schiano would agree.

 

[Randal7]

Yes but still . Our greatest defense and coach of all time should have stopped a backup qb . I think even schiano would agree.

Yes. That one still hurts 16 years later.

 

[RUChoppin]

Backup QBs were always our kryptonite. We'd prep for the starter, and then get a different look. But still, we held them to almost half their average scoring in their house.... we had to put more points on the board and blew several chances. And even with that WVU FG, we had time to get back into FG range to win it. That loss was on the offense.