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Ranking Progress

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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist

Senior
Feb 2, 2019
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This is something we started to do near the end of last season. I'll update weekly to follow progress.
Last update: 1/7/2025


125 Peterson No. 9 17 19 19 18 18 18 16 16
133 Shawver No. 6 6 5 5 9 16 16 16 17
141 Olivieri No. 22 22 24 24 24 22 20 18 16
149 Clark No. NR NR 32 31 33 NR 33 25 24
Cetta No. 33 33 NR NR NR
157 Harer No. NR NR NR NR 33 33 33 33 31
165 White No. 32 32 NR 27 26 26 25 27 26
Barbosa No. NR NR NR NR NR
174 Turley No. 13 18 20 20 21 21 22 23 23
184 Soldano No. 20 21 22 22
184 Walsh No. NR NR NR NR 29 29 29 28 27
197 Poznanski No. 12 12 14 14 15 15 14 18 18
HWT Slavikouski No. 4 9 9 9 6 5 5 8 8
 
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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
125 Peterson No. 9 17 19
133 Shawver No. 6 6 5
141 Olivieri No. 22 22 24
149 Clark No. NR NR 32
149 Cetta No. 33 33 NR
157 Harer No. NR NR NR
165 White No. 32 32 NR
165 Barbosa No. NR NR NR
174 Turley No. 13 18 20
184 Soldano No. 20 21 22
184 Walsh No. NR NR NR
197 Poznanski No. 12 12 14
HWT Slavikouski No. 4 9 9
Click to expand...
Intermat is only going to rank 1 guy per team per weight, whoever they consider the starter.
 
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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
December 10, 2024
125 Peterson No. 9 17 19 19 18
133 Shawver No. 6 6 5 5 9
141 Olivieri No. 22 22 24 24 24
149 Clark No. NR NR 32 31 33
Cetta No. 33 33 NR NR NR
157 Harer No. NR NR NR NR 33
165 White No. 32 32 NR 27 26
Barbosa No. NR NR NR NR NR
174 Turley No. 13 18 20 20 21
184 Soldano No. 20 21 22 22
184 Walsh No. NR NR NR NR 29
197 Poznanski No. 12 12 14 14 15
HWT Slavikouski No. 4 9 9 9 6
Click to expand...
I really wish Soldano would get his head of his ass and wrestle the way he really is supposed too. Pinning a couple of flea bags doesn't impress me.I thought he would be an AA by now.
 
RUCrackers said:
I really wish Soldano would get his head of his ass and wrestle the way he really is supposed too. Pinning a couple of flea bags doesn't impress me.I thought he would be an AA by now.
Click to expand...
I really think we've done a poor job with him. He hasn't progressed and he's too small against Big Ten opponents. He'll get away with his funk against Clarion and Lock Haven, but when he wrestles legit opponents he's just too small at 184.

I know I've said this plenty, but I think he'd be at his best at 174. A redshirt this year would've been ideal unless Soldano is just against cutting weight.
 
LETSGORU91 said:
Poz isnt competitive?? He was one win from being an AA last year!!
Click to expand...
Ok but he was also an NCAA fourth place finisher as a freshman. The conversation we should be having now, is him being a title contender...not "oh I hope he can all american again or pull out 2 wins". Also concerned about Peterson. He can pound mid-level competition, but i'm worried about the way he overcommits on his shots. He gets too wild with them and against calculated top tier wrestlers he's going to get smoked. He's constantly getting countered. There's nothing wrong with his aggression. I just think it's too much sometimes. He needs to be more refined. He's another one who should be at least an all american by now. I feel
like we're inflicting scott winston syndrome again. Hyping wrestlers up so much that they are content with just the verbal accolades.Its great to say " he is a bona-fide AA or National Champ". We say that every year about the great catches we get and then they get content and falter.
 
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KidDagger said:
The main concern is all these guys+ Turley seemingly peaked their freshman year for one reason or another…
Click to expand...
I think it's very clear now that Poz and Turley both benefitted from the post-Covid full season where many guys didn't wrestle, there were very short dual schedules (just 4 B1G duals for RU that season?), no Ivies, etc.
 
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LETSGORU91 said:
Poz isnt competitive?? He was one win from being an AA last year!!
Click to expand...
You're right, he is competitive, but not to the level I expected from him. Watching his high school senior performance, I thought he was dominant like I saw from Damion Hahn. I stated that here years ago, but maybe I was wrong. My issue is more with what I perceive to be poor development from the Rutgers program. I know very well that there are some that develop well; Shawver comes to mind. There have been numerous high-level recruits that have come and not "panned out". Rutgers has a difficult enough time attracting the top talent, so must make the best of it when they do. This probably involves more than just what happens on the practice mat. Peterson was a top recruit; JoJo was, and I believe Poz and Soldano are. Many have their best year straight out of high school
 
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biochemist01 said:
I think it's very clear now that Poz and Turley both benefitted from the post-Covid full season where many guys didn't wrestle, there were very short dual schedules (just 4 B1G duals for RU that season?), no Ivies, etc.
Click to expand...
Lemme ask you something do you think this current version of Poz is beating Nelson Brands? Taking Hidlay into OT and having a tight match w Keikesen?? The schedule is a great excuse but he was legit up there w Kekeisen that year.. explain that. How come Kekeisen has only gotten stronger and no one saying he had a flukey 3rd place finish bc ez Covid schedule?
 
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KidDagger said:
Lemme ask you something do you think this current version of Poz is beating Nelson Brands? Taking Hidlay into OT and having a tight match w Keikesen?? The schedule is a great excuse but he was legit up there w Kekeisen that year.. explain that. How come Kekeisen has only gotten stronger and no one saying he had a flukey 3rd place finish bc ez Covid schedule?
Click to expand...
No and no. KD, I'm not saying that I disagree that Poz has failed to develop further at Rutgers. I am just pointing out that it was an unusual season that benefitted some guys and didn't benefit others. Can you explain Turley to me?
 
biochemist01 said:
No and no. KD, I'm not saying that I disagree that Poz has failed to develop further at Rutgers. I am just pointing out that it was an unusual season that benefitted some guys and didn't benefit others. Can you explain Turley to me?
Click to expand...
Turley was having a .500 season-ish and barely qualified for nationals… legend has it Turley heard someone talking bout his grandma and went to honeybadger mode once he was on the backside that year…
 
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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
You're right, he is competitive, but not to the level I expected from him. Watching his high school senior performance, I thought he was dominant like I saw from Damion Hahn. I stated that here years ago, but maybe I was wrong. My issue is more with what I perceive to be poor development from the Rutgers program. I know very well that there are some that develop well; Shawver comes to mind. There have been numerous high-level recruits that have come and not "panned out". Rutgers has a difficult enough time attracting the top talent, so must make the best of it when they do. This probably involves more than just what happens on the practice mat. Peterson was a top recruit; JoJo was, and I believe Poz and Soldano are. Many have their best year straight out of high school
Click to expand...
Thanks for the reply. He is competitive, that's all I was questioning. Obviously he isn't as much as Rutgers fans have envisioned following his freshman year.
PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
That's true, but look back at who he wrestled and beat or hung tough with. Also observe his aggressiveness.
Click to expand...
The change to '97 has limited his effectiveness and hence he has become more apprehensive. He usually is undersized against most competition. This has been discussed several times here. He is limited with shot selection due to his opponent's strength and also their length as his opponents are usually taller/have longer reach. Higher level opponents, most things being equal, strength and length have the advantage and this works against Poz. He's a real solid wrestler with good offensive and defensive skills but the size thing hampers his ability. I'm not sure if he can make '84, but he is undersized for '97. 🤷‍♂️
 
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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
Updated 1/7/2025
Click to expand...
I don’t recall, but did you do this last year (rankings update?). It’s interesting to see the steady decline in basically EVERY wrestler.

Based on your info..the only wrestler having a better than expected year is Oliveri moving up 6 spots from where he started and White.

It doesn’t mean much to go from NR to 30-33, so not counting those since basically your a fringe NQ at those weights
 
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pish69 said:
I don’t recall, but did you do this last year (rankings update?). It’s interesting to see the steady decline in basically EVERY wrestler.

Based on your info..the only wrestler having a better than expected year is Oliveri moving up 6 spots from where he started and White.

It doesn’t mean much to go from NR to 30-33, so not counting those since basically your a fringe NQ at those weights
Click to expand...
I think I did something at the end of the year, but not from the beginning. I had observed over years that the Rutgers guys tended to drop in the rankings. If I were to say that, the predictable numbskulls would point to a few that didn't. This year I thought I would report every week as a data. It's up to others to turn it into useful information and action, although unlikely.

Some may very well improve and do well towards the end of the year, but I think they would all do better to come into the season better prepared in mind and body.
 
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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
I think I did something at the end of the year, but not from the beginning. I had observed over years that the Rutgers guys tended to drop in the rankings. If I were to say that, the predictable numbskulls would point to a few that didn't. This year I thought I would report every week as a data. It's up to others to turn it into useful information and action, although unlikely.

Some may very well improve and do well towards the end of the year, but I think they would all do better to come into the season better prepared in mind and body.
Click to expand...
 
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PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
What a tangled web we weave. Fact and data are both valuable and meaningful. How exactly to interpret that chart is the challenge. Is this your work? Can it be updated to current? With the more senior guys, the starting point would be meaningful. Can it possibly go back a little further? I wonder how other B1G charts would look.
Click to expand...


Indeed, it is my work. I have 2023 as well, but the data format is a mess. I have been meaning to fix that, but have not gotten around to it.

I have a bunch of other stuff too. I will post some things from time to time that I find interesting if you care.
 
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Here is an example of other data I produce and how I use it.



Notes:
  • Using past 10 years of results I calculate the probability of placement for every seed (and therefore, probability of AA and likely points scored at NCAAs)
  • For example, a wrestler seeded 8th finishes in the top 8 about 46.5% of the time.
  • Using that Slavikouski contributes almost half an expected AA based on Intermat's #8 rank for him.
  • Aggregating across all ten weights using Intermat rankings suggest Rutgers has a 91% chance of 1 AA. Replace that with WrestleStat rankings and the expectation is to have roughly 2 AAs. I can also calculate the odds of any number from 0 to 10 AAs.
  • The difference comes down to the extreme difference of opinion on Dean Peterson.
  • As for scoring, it looks like Rutgers is on track for between 20 and 37 points at the tournament.
  • During the season I use rankings as a proxy for seeds and replace them with actual seeds when available.
 
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wrestleknownothing said:


Indeed, it is my work. I have 2023 as well, but the data format is a mess. I have been meaning to fix that, but have not gotten around to it.

I have a bunch of other stuff too. I will post some things from time to time that I find interesting if you care.
Click to expand...
I think any data that you can turn into information will be helpful. This graph is easier on the eyes than the first one and better represents the current season. Thank you for this.
 
wrestleknownothing said:
Here is an example of other data I produce and how I use it.



Notes:
  • Using past 10 years of results I calculate the probability of placement for every seed (and therefore, probability of AA and likely points scored at NCAAs)
  • For example, a wrestler seeded 8th finishes in the top 8 about 46.5% of the time.
  • Using that Slavikouski contributes almost half an expected AA based on Intermat's #8 rank for him.
  • Aggregating across all ten weights using Intermat rankings suggest Rutgers has a 91% chance of 1 AA. Replace that with WrestleStat rankings and the expectation is to have roughly 2 AAs. I can also calculate the odds of any number from 0 to 10 AAs.
  • The difference comes down to the extreme difference of opinion on Dean Peterson.
  • As for scoring, it looks like Rutgers is on track for between 20 and 37 points at the tournament.
  • During the season I use rankings as a proxy for seeds and replace them with actual seeds when available.
Click to expand...
Wrestlestat has its purpose, but its methods won't accurately represent newer wrestlers. Between Intermat and Flo, I don't know which has a better reputation for accuracy. I have picked Intermat for no particular reason. I do not have much experience in statistics, but I do not agree with the grand total view of our chances. Based on your analysis, I think one AA is hopeful. Peterson seems to have come on strong recently, but we're yet to see if he will keep up the aggressiveness against better opponents. Thanks again for your work.
 
PessimisticallyHopefulPragmatist said:
Wrestlestat has its purpose, but its methods won't accurately represent newer wrestlers. Between Intermat and Flo, I don't know which has a better reputation for accuracy. I have picked Intermat for no particular reason. I do not have much experience in statistics, but I do not agree with the grand total view of our chances. Based on your analysis, I think one AA is hopeful. Peterson seems to have come on strong recently, but we're yet to see if he will keep up the aggressiveness against better opponents. Thanks again for your work.
Click to expand...
Generally, I trust flo’s rankings more.. one AA? At the start of the season most on this forum were predicting between 3-5 lol…… then again, coming into the post season last year we were projected with 1(forgot what seed was Shawver) or 0. And came away with 2 so who knows…
Peterson could end up in the finals or the round of 16 again.. just depends which mentally strong Peterson shows up. I’m hoping the red hair taps into some alter ego but yeah we will see during the b10 slate.
 
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KidDagger said:
Generally, I trust flo’s rankings more.. one AA? At the start of the season most on this forum were predicting between 3-5 lol…… then again, coming into the post season last year we were projected with 1(forgot what seed was Shawver) or 0. And came away with 2 so who knows…
Peterson could end up in the finals or the round of 16 again.. just depends which mentally strong Peterson shows up. I’m hoping the red hair taps into some alter ego but yeah we will see during the b10 slate.
Click to expand...
This is how my model saw it based on seeds in 2024



1.4 expected based on 47% chance of 1 and 32% chance of 2 AAs. So nice job of hitting the over.
 
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