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Ranking the 2018 NFL Draft QBs

Morrischiano

All American
Dec 3, 2019
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At the end of their 3rd yr the initial evaluation period of the 4 QBs drafted in the 2018 is setting in. It's interesting how their career fortunes have risen and fallen in 2020.

Baker Mayfield (#1 pick overall)- after an uneven 2 years, he's performing in the top 3rd of all QBs with 23 TD and 8 INTs

Sam Darnold (#3)- granted that he has no weapons around him but he's definitely not resigning with the Jets and his star has plummeted from a franchise QB to someone who might follow Alex Smith's career

Josh Allen (#7)- experiencing a breakout in 2020. Increased his completion % by 10% this year and is less reliant on his running. Is having the best year out of the class of 2018

Josh Rosen (#10)- an unsurprising bust. Hanging on as a practice squad QB for Tampa Bay

Lamar Jackson (#32)- a surprising drop-off after a historic year last year. His passing TDs are way off and he's running a little less



Here's how I see their ranking after (close to 3 seasons):
1) Jackson
1a) Allen- a very close second. A better passer than Jackson and may last longer in his career
3) Baker- has a lot of Brett Favre in him. He's driving a very talented offense into the playoffs
4) Darnold- criminally mismanaged by the Jets
5) Rosen
 
I'm not a Jets fan, so I think I have some degree of objectivity. "Criminally mismanaged" is right. Somebody can probably pick him up in the off-season for a 3rd and have a 50% chance of fair value and 50% chance of a steal.
 
After a couple more weeks I think Jackson has to fall.

1) Allen: He has improved every year in the league. While 2020 is a breakout he was still pretty good in 2019 and even 2018.

2) Baker: Seems to finally be settling in and the new HC is a big positive. Proof rebuilds don’t take 5 years if you hit on a QB.

Both of them will be getting big extensions in the off season.

3) Jackson: Was last year a fluke? Definitely “regressed to the mean” a bit this year. Last two games against Giants/Bengals will help finish year strong.

4) Rosen: For Arizona this has actually turned out to be a great pick. Rosen was so bad they ended up #1 in 2019 Draft and got Kyler Murray. Really a perfect scenario for the Cardinals.

5) Darnold: He been bad but not terrible enough to get the Jets #1 overall and a shot at TL. Now the Jets are in a weird draft Fields/overpay Darnold limbo with no clear future at QB.
 
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After a couple more weeks I think Jackson has to fall.

1) Allen: He has improved every year in the league. While 2020 is a breakout he was still pretty good in 2019 and even 2018.

2) Baker: Seems to finally be settling in and the new HC is a big positive. Proof rebuilds don’t take 5 years if you hit on a QB.

Both of them will be getting big extensions in the off season.

3) Jackson: Was last year a fluke? Definitely “regressed to the mean” a bit this year. Last two games against Giants/Bengals will help finish year strong.

4) Rosen: For Arizona this has actually turned out to be a great pick. Rosen was so bad they ended up #1 in 2019 Draft and got Kyler Murray. Really a perfect scenario for the Cardinals.

5) Darnold: He been bad but not terrible enough to get the Jets #1 overall and a shot at TL. Now the Jets are in a weird draft Fields/overpay Darnold limbo with no clear future at QB.

Outside of Rosen, who was a total bust, add the quality of their OLs into the mix. Buffalo and Cleveland's lines have gotten better over the last few years and the Raven's has regressed. It may affect your conclusions.
 
After a couple more weeks I think Jackson has to fall.

1) Allen: He has improved every year in the league. While 2020 is a breakout he was still pretty good in 2019 and even 2018.

2) Baker: Seems to finally be settling in and the new HC is a big positive. Proof rebuilds don’t take 5 years if you hit on a QB.

Both of them will be getting big extensions in the off season.

3) Jackson: Was last year a fluke? Definitely “regressed to the mean” a bit this year. Last two games against Giants/Bengals will help finish year strong.

4) Rosen: For Arizona this has actually turned out to be a great pick. Rosen was so bad they ended up #1 in 2019 Draft and got Kyler Murray. Really a perfect scenario for the Cardinals.

5) Darnold: He been bad but not terrible enough to get the Jets #1 overall and a shot at TL. Now the Jets are in a weird draft Fields/overpay Darnold limbo with no clear future at QB.

Reasonable analysis but only a real Jets hater would put Darnold after Rosen, who is barely even in the league at this point.
 
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If I were the Jets and I didn't get the #1, I'd keep Darnold another year and actually give him a chance to turn it around.

If he doesn't there will be other opportunities to draft a QB.
 
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I don't think Jackson last year was a fluke, but for as great a runner as he is, he is also limited as a passer.
 
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Reasonable analysis but only a real Jets hater would put Darnold after Rosen, who is barely even in the league at this point.

Not a Jets hater but looking at it more from the Team perspective.
In fact, as a Giants fan I don't think a Darnold vs. Jones discussion is out of the question. Especially since they are the same age.

Darnold vs Rosen is clearly a big win for Darnold (haha I accidentially put Rosen at first).
But "drafting Darnold" vs. "drafting Rosen" is a big win for Arizona.
 
I think "running" quarterbacks fade quickly in terms of value as they age in the NFL. For starters, the quarterback isn't there primarily to run in the first place; that's for others, although of course it can help a lot on a busted play. But mostly, that ability is going to get bludgeoned out of a quarterback after few seasons, he is a prime target on every play.

So I don't see Jackson as a long-term star, personally. A guy like Haskins, who is off to a slow start with the Redskins, will probably have a better career in the end, because he has an NFL quarterback skill set.
 
If I were the Jets and draft at 2 I would trade down and load up on draft choices and keep Darnald. They have so many holes to fill.
 
If I were the Jets and I didn't get the #1, I'd keep Darnold another year and actually give him a chance to turn it around.

If he doesn't there will be other opportunities to draft a QB.
Agree. Get some weapons for this guy. Get a legit #1 receiver
 
Not a Jets hater but looking at it more from the Team perspective.
In fact, as a Giants fan I don't think a Darnold vs. Jones discussion is out of the question. Especially since they are the same age.

Darnold vs Rosen is clearly a big win for Darnold (haha I accidentially put Rosen at first).
But "drafting Darnold" vs. "drafting Rosen" is a big win for Arizona.
OK - I get what you're saying. It was easier for the Cardinals to immediately move on and realize he stunk and end up with a franchise guy in Murray.
 
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I think "running" quarterbacks fade quickly in terms of value as they age in the NFL. For starters, the quarterback isn't there primarily to run in the first place; that's for others, although of course it can help a lot on a busted play. But mostly, that ability is going to get bludgeoned out of a quarterback after few seasons, he is a prime target on every play.

So I don't see Jackson as a long-term star, personally. A guy like Haskins, who is off to a slow start with the Redskins, will probably have a better career in the end, because he has an NFL quarterback skill set.
Most of this post is fair until the absurd statement at the end. People like to say Haskins has an NFL quarterback skill set for whatever reason. He does not. Plain and simple. He's a pocket passer instead of a runner, sure, but he has little to no future in the league.
 
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Most of this post is fair until the absurd statement at the end. People like to say Haskins has an NFL quarterback skill set for whatever reason. He does not. Plain and simple. He's a pocket passer instead of a runner, sure, but he has little to no future in the league.

I mean of all the crazy stuff posted on this board - that last statement you are talking about might be the most absurd. Even over Al's annual "Ohio State Upset Alert" threads.
This needs to be saved for any future "most ridiculous posts" poll.
It's not even "Haskins might/maybe/has a chance to have a better career than Jackson".

He says:
"A guy like Haskins, who is off to a slow start with the Redskins, will probably have a better career in the end, because he has an NFL quarterback skill set. "
 
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I mean of all the crazy stuff posted on this board - that last statement you are talking about might be the most absurd. Even over Al's annual "Ohio State Upset Alert" threads.
This needs to be saved for any future "most ridiculous posts" poll.
It's not even "Haskins might/maybe/has a chance to have a better career than Jackson".

He says:
"A guy like Haskins, who is off to a slow start with the Redskins, will probably have a better career in the end, because he has an NFL quarterback skill set. "

We can compare stats in ten or twelve years...

Edited to add that I am thrilled to be equated with your RutgersAl. I'm a huge fan of his...
 
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At the end of their 3rd yr the initial evaluation period of the 4 QBs drafted in the 2018 is setting in. It's interesting how their career fortunes have risen and fallen in 2020.

Baker Mayfield (#1 pick overall)- after an uneven 2 years, he's performing in the top 3rd of all QBs with 23 TD and 8 INTs

Sam Darnold (#3)- granted that he has no weapons around him but he's definitely not resigning with the Jets and his star has plummeted from a franchise QB to someone who might follow Alex Smith's career

Josh Allen (#7)- experiencing a breakout in 2020. Increased his completion % by 10% this year and is less reliant on his running. Is having the best year out of the class of 2018

Josh Rosen (#10)- an unsurprising bust. Hanging on as a practice squad QB for Tampa Bay

Lamar Jackson (#32)- a surprising drop-off after a historic year last year. His passing TDs are way off and he's running a little less



Here's how I see their ranking after (close to 3 seasons):
1) Jackson
1a) Allen- a very close second. A better passer than Jackson and may last longer in his career
3) Baker- has a lot of Brett Favre in him. He's driving a very talented offense into the playoffs
4) Darnold- criminally mismanaged by the Jets
5) Rosen
Switch Allen and Jackson. Otherwise, looks good!
 
A friend of mine is a big Browns fan who grew up in Cleveland. The talk there is that Mayfield isn't in line for an extension just yet. Could have to prove it next year unless he makes a nice run in the playoffs.
He's so jaded that he bet me $500 that neither Mayfield nor Ward would be on the roster in year 5. I'm pulling for Baker.
 
How about some OL to keep him upright and healthy?

That too.
They had a nice start with Becton last year. Mims is still a wait and see, but their #1 receiver is a journeyman receiver in Crowder. Maybe grab another bigtime OL with the #2 pick and grab a receiver in the second round.
 
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