RU and Big 10 Tournament Tie-Breakers

[lion1983]

Here are the tiebreakers as of 5 PM Saturday:

In a tie with just 1 team:

RU WINS the tiebreaker in a tie with just 1 team with NW, Washington ... and Nebraska (RU is 1 game behind Nebraska) should they end up tied.

RU LOSES the tiebreaker in a tie with just 1 team with PSU (RU is 1-1, but PSU beat Purdue, a team currently higher in the Big 10 standings than RU beating UCLA ... that could change if UCLA wins at Purdue, finishes tied or ahead of Purdue - UCLA is currently 10-6 vs Purdue 11-5 ... UCLA is likely favored in the 3 games left other than Purdue), Iowa (bummer of a loss), Indiana and Ohio St (RU is 1 game behind OSU and a half a game behind Indiana).

TBD: RU tiebreaker if in a tie with just 1 team: USC and Minnesota - 2 RU home games, still ot be played.

In a tie with 3 or more teams:

I suppose if RU can just win its home games, to go 8-12, then the odds are Washington, PSU, NW all have at least 12 losses each - probably more ... And if RU ties with all 3 with 12 losses (or even 13), RU wins the tiebreaker (by the virtue of a 3-1 record in that mini-pool of RU, Washington, PSU and NW ... PSU is 2-2 in that pool with no more games; Washington is 2-1 in that pool, no more games; NW is 0-3 in the pool, with no more games), and finishes 15th - in the Big 10 tourney by the skin of their noses, so to speak.

Things get a lot more complicated if RU ties in a pool with 11 or 12 losses with 3 or more teams that include teams they lost to (like Iowa, Indiana and OSU) ... or with teams they beat (like Nebraska, NW and/or Washington) ... and of course, teams they have yet to play, like USC and Minnesota - wins or losses in those games will make a huge difference.

I mean, jeez ... you COULD see a jam with RU, Minnesota, USC, Iowa, and even Nebraska and Indiana or OSU with 11 or 12 losses each. It would NOT be far-fetched to see RU, Minnesota, USC, Iowa and Indiana ALL with 12 losses in conference ... Nebraska seems less likely (easier remaining schedule, would have to lose 3 of 4 - with 3 at home, including Iowa and Minnesota at home). The current combinations seem limitless.

 

[fatsam98]

Helpful link to play around with

https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

 

[Smols]

They started the day at 14. After today's games they're at 15 according to the above website.

 

[RuSnp]

Helpful link to play around with

https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

This is a great link. Playing around a bit with it best case is #9 but that's a huge stretch. Most likely we will be in that 12/13 game maybe against USC again. We could definitely miss out on the B10 tourney if we lose out. Winning 1 out of the remaining 4 puts us in a decent - albeit not guaranteed - spot.

 

[JavaDunk18]

Odd that Nebraska is on the BTT bubble, but they projected as a 10 seed in the tournament!
Rutgers should be OK to get in BTT, and if they could hot, maybe make it to CBS Saturday

 

[lion1983]

Update - Conference records at 2/24/25, plus remaining opponents:

7. Illinois (9-8) ... Iowa, @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (9-8) ... USC, Indiana, @Washington
9. Nebraska (7-9) ... Michigan, Minnesota, @Ohio St, Iowa
10. Indiana (7-9) ... Penn St, @Washington, @Oregon, Ohio St
11. Ohio St (7-10) ... @USC, Nebraska, @Indiana
12. RU (7-10) ... @Michigan, @ Purdue, Minnesota
13. Minnesota (6-10) ... Northwestern, @Nebraska, Wisconsin, @Rutgers
14. USC (6-10) ... Ohio St, @Oregon, Washington, @UCLA
15. Iowa (6-10) ... @Illinois, @Northwestern, Michigan St, @Nebraska
16. Northwestern (5-11) ... Iowa, UCLA, @Maryland
17. Penn St (5-12) ... @Indiana, Maryland, @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-12) ... @Wisconsin, Indiana, @USC, Oregon

RU has arguably the most difficult remaining schedule, with road games against 2 of the top 6 teams in the standings. Only Illinois and Penn State play 2 of the top 6 teams in the standings (no other team plays more than 1 of the top 6 teams), and each of them get at least 1 of those top games at home ... RU is the only team with both their toughest games on the road.

That said ... ONE more win by RU almost certainly locks them into at least 15th, if not better. One more win gets RU to no worse than 8-12: No way PSU and Washington go undefeated ... Northwestern would also have to sweep Iowa, UCLA and @Maryland - because an 8-12 RU has the tiebreaker over an 8-12 Northwestern (or presuming NW beats Iowa, even if RU is in 3-way tie with NW).

RU beats out USC for 15th - and likely Iowa (NW would edge out RU due to a win over Maryland) in a 4-way tie with NW, Iowa and USC. So RU might finish 14th in this scenario, behind NW, ahead of Iowa and USC.

If RU beats Minnesota, and a 5-way tie with Minnesota added ... I think RU beats out USC and Minnesota.

If RU upsets Purdue or Michigan, and beats Minnesota, finishing 9-11, they could finish as high as 10th in the league (maybe 9th, but that seems less likely).

Even in the extremely unlikely event if RU wins out with 2 upsets plus Minnesota, and finishes 10-10 ... anywhere from 8th to 11th in conference. FYI, still would have to win the Big 10 tournament for an NCAA bid (21-15, assuming winning out, no bye in the Big 10 tourney, and 4 wins to the final - not enough IMO ... though that WOULD have RU with 7-12 in Quad 1 ... and 5-1 or 6-1 Quad 2 ... 12-13 or 13-13 Quad 1 and 2 ... Just those awful losses.

 

[lion1983]

Update - Conference records at 2/26/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated recr0d and remaining oppoinents - did not reorder (too much daily flux to do that).:

7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (9-8) ... USC, Indiana, @Washington
10. Nebraska (7-10) ... Minnesota, @Ohio St, Iowa
9. Indiana (7-9) ... Penn St, @Washington, @Oregon, Ohio St
11. Ohio St (7-10) ... @USC, Nebraska, @Indiana
12. RU (7-10) ... @Michigan, @ Purdue, Minnesota
14. Minnesota (6-11) ... @Nebraska, Wisconsin, @Rutgers
13. USC (6-10) ... Ohio St, @Oregon, Washington, @UCLA
15. Iowa (6-11) ... @Northwestern, Michigan St, @Nebraska
16. Northwestern (6-11) ... Iowa, UCLA, @Maryland
17. Penn St (5-12) ... @Indiana, Maryland, @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-13) ... Indiana, @USC, Oregon

Every day this will be very fluid.

Relevant games Wednesday: PSU @Indiana ... OSU @USC.

Who to root for? Definitely Ohio St over USC: RU has the tiebreaker over USC and not over OSU - so passing OSU in the standings is less likely, but we want USC to finish as low as possible, BELOW RU to make it easier for RU to be in the top 15. Probably the same for Indiana (same as for OSU relative to RU's chances to be ahead of Indiana) hosting PSU - put PSU's nail in their coffin, getting them to 13 losses in the Big 10?

If RU does not pass Indiana or OSU in the standings, 12th would be the highest RU could finish - but the goal is no worse than 15th, to make the Big 10 tournament.

 

[lion1983]

More thoughts, an "what if" for various (not all possible) 3-way ties if RU loses out and has a 7-13 in conference record ... I have not done any 4-way ties:

1) a 3-way ties at 7-13 with RU, NW and USC: RU has the 14th seed, ahead of both NW and USC - one of whom misses the Big 10 tourney (RU 2-0 in the mini-group).

2) A 3-way tie with Minnesota and USC, RU losing to Minnesota: RU is still okay, but finishes 15th (RU would be 1-1 in the mini-group, USC 0-2, Minny 2-0).

3) A 3-way tie with RU, Iowa and NW: RU is 1-1 in the mini-group, NW is either 0-2 or 1-1 (depending on their next game with Iowa). Iowa would be 2-0 or 1-1 (depending on their game with NW). If all are 1-1, I think RU beats out Iowa, though NW beats out RU and Iowa - so RU would be 15th. How so> If the mini-pool teams are all tied with each other within the pool, the next tiebreaker is each team in the mini-pool's record against the highest team in the standings - but if 2 or more teams are tied, its the record against the POOL (not who won the tiebreaker). Iowa, NW and RU each lost all their games against MSU. UM, and Wisconsin. But the next team is Maryland: RU and Iowa lost to them, and NW beat them - so NW gets the tiebreaker. The next team after that would be UCLA (and/or Purdue). But if UCLA either finishes ahead of Purdue or tied, RU beats out Iowa in that tiebreaker scenario, due to RU's win over UCLA (Iowa lost to UCLA and Purdue).

In all the above scenarios RU is either the 14th or 15th seed, IN the Big 10 tourney.

There are reasonable scenarios in which RU gets as high as an 11th to 13th seed - but most of those involve RU beating Minnesota - or perhaps UM or Purdue - ending up with an 8-12 or 9-11 record in conference. It may be possible for RU to get a 13 seed with 13 conference losses, in a 4-way or 5-way tie, I suppose - though I am sure Nebraska would have to be involved (since RU owns a win over them).

 

[stribucher]

It would seem that the absolute best seed we could get would be 9th, assuming winning last 3 games. Not likely but posing the question if it is better to play one less game but having to face number 1 seed in second game or play extra 12 -13 game and see 4 and 5 seeds in subsequent rounds. Would need huge miracle to win big ten tournament but dare to dream.

 

[zebnatto]

More thoughts, an "what if" for various (not all possible) 3-way ties if RU loses out and has a 7-13 in conference record ... I have not done any 4-way ties:

1) a 3-way ties at 7-13 with RU, NW and USC: RU has the 14th seed, ahead of both NW and USC - one of whom misses the Big 10 tourney (RU 2-0 in the mini-group).

2) A 3-way tie with Minnesota and USC, RU losing to Minnesota: RU is still okay, but finishes 15th (RU would be 1-1 in the mini-group, USC 0-2, Minny 2-0).

3) A 3-way tie with RU, Iowa and NW: RU is 1-1 in the mini-group, NW is either 0-2 or 1-1 (depending on their next game with Iowa). Iowa would be 2-0 or 1-1 (depending on their game with NW). If all are 1-1, I think RU beats out Iowa, though NW beats out RU and Iowa - so RU would be 15th. How so> If the mini-pool teams are all tied with each other within the pool, the next tiebreaker is each team in the mini-pool's record against the highest team in the standings - but if 2 or more teams are tied, its the record against the POOL (not who won the tiebreaker). Iowa, NW and RU each lost all their games against MSU. UM, and Wisconsin. But the next team is Maryland: RU and Iowa lost to them, and NW beat them - so NW gets the tiebreaker. The next team after that would be UCLA (and/or Purdue). But if UCLA either finishes ahead of Purdue or tied, RU beats out Iowa in that tiebreaker scenario, due to RU's win over UCLA (Iowa lost to UCLA and Purdue).

In all the above scenarios RU is either the 14th or 15th seed, IN the Big 10 tourney.

There are reasonable scenarios in which RU gets as high as an 11th to 13th seed - but most of those involve RU beating Minnesota - or perhaps UM or Purdue - ending up with an 8-12 or 9-11 record in conference. It may be possible for RU to get a 13 seed with 13 conference losses, in a 4-way or 5-way tie, I suppose - though I am sure Nebraska would have to be involved (since RU owns a win over them).

Maybe I need a reading lesson, but does the above imply that with 7 Ws, we're in?

 

[lion1983]

Maybe I need a reading lesson, but does the above imply that with 7 Ws, we're in?

Not for sure. In MOST 3-way ties, RU SHOULD end up the 14th or 15th seed (in the tournament) - but there are still game results to occur that could change ... like what happens if OSU loses out and finishes 7-13? RU may not do well in a 3-way tie including Ohio St - or Indiana for that matter. I did not look at those.

Plus, RU COULD end up in a 2-way tie with Minnesota with both at 7-13 - with NW at 8-12. In THAT scenario, RU finishes 16th - out of the tournament.

BUT ... if RU WINS any of its 3 remaining games - but especially beating Minnesota - and finishes no worse than 8-12, then RU is LOCKED into the Big 10 tournament. RU controls its own fate here.

 

[bac2therac]

What's the 3 way tie with nw and minny look like

 

[lion1983]

What's the 3 way tie with nw and minny look like

Presuming RU loses out (including RU losing to Minny) and all have a record of 7-13 ...

1) Each team would have a mini-pool record of 1-1 (RU beat NW, lost to Minny, NW beat Minny).

2) Each have the following records against:

a) Michigan St: Each are 0-1

b) Michigan: RU and NW are currently 0-1 (RU vs UM tomorrow), Minny is 1-0 ... thus, regardless of RU's result, Minny is seeded ahead of RU and NW. BUT ... I think if RU loses to UM it may not matter - because it is by WINNING PERCENTAGE ... so being 0-2 is the same winning percentage as being 0-1.

c) The next teams in the standings is Wisconsin. Each of the 3 are 0-1, so NW does not get the advantage over RU.

d) Maryland is next (though could easily be tied with Wisconsin - or the teams below, UCLA and Purdue): And NW has the advantage, as they are currently 1-0 vs MD - and even if they lose, they would be 1-1, to RU's 0-1. So ... unless UCLA passes MD in the standings, RU could lose this tiebreaker - UCLA still has to play NW, but RU beat UCLA.

Basically, if RU loses to Minnesota and ties with a 7-13 record with ether JUST Minnesota, or Minnesota and NW, RU is probably out of luck - unless UCLA beats NW and finishes ahead of Maryland in the standings.

So ... root HARD for RU to win at least 1 more game, and root hard for RU NOT to be in a 3-way ties with NW and Minnesota.

 

[bac2therac]

Presuming RU loses out (including RU losing to Minny) and all have a record of 7-13 ...

1) Each team would have a mini-pool record of 1-1 (RU beat NW, lost to Minny, NW beat Minny).

2) Each have the following records against:

a) Michigan St: Each are 0-1

b) Michigan: RU and NW are currently 0-1 (RU vs UM tomorrow), Minny is 1-0 ... thus, regardless of RU's result, Minny is seeded ahead of RU and NW. BUT ... I think if RU loses to UM it may not matter - because it is by WINNING PERCENTAGE ... so being 0-2 is the same winning percentage as being 0-1.

c) The next teams in the standings is Wisconsin. Each of the 3 are 0-1, so NW does not get the advantage over RU.

d) Maryland is next (though could easily be tied with Wisconsin - or the teams below, UCLA and Purdue): And NW has the advantage, as they are currently 1-0 vs MD - and even if they lose, they would be 1-1, to RU's 0-1. So ... unless UCLA passes MD in the standings, RU could lose this tiebreaker - UCLA still has to play NW, but RU beat UCLA.

Basically, if RU loses to Minnesota and ties with a 7-13 record with ether JUST Minnesota, or Minnesota and NW, RU is probably out of luck - unless UCLA beats NW and finishes ahead of Maryland in the standings.

So ... root HARD for RU to win at least 1 more game, and root hard for RU NOT to be in a 3-way ties with NW and Minnesota.

Isnt it the case that once Minny wins the 3 team tiebreaker that next tiebreaker would be head to head between RU/NW?

 

[lion1983]

Isnt it the case that once Minny wins the 3 team tiebreaker that next tiebreaker would be head to head between RU/NW?

No, not how I read it:

B. Multiple team tie:

1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular-season. [clarified by A., B., etc. below - the "head to head" record is within the mini-pool]

a. When comparing records against the tied teams, the team with the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

b. After the top team among the tied teams is determined, the second team is ranked by its record among the original tied teams, not the head-to-head record vs. the remaining team(s).

2. If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team's record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.

a. When arriving at another pair of tied teams while comparing records, use each team's record against the collective tied teams as a group (prior to their own tie-breaking procedures), rather than the performance against the individual tied teams.

b. When comparing records against a single team or group of teams, the higher winning percentage shall prevail, even if the number of games played against the team or group are unequal (i.e., 2-0 is better than 3-1, but 2-0 is not better than 1-0).

3. Won-loss percentage of Division I opponents.

4. Coin toss conducted by Commissioner or designee.

 

[bac2therac]

OK thanks

I really fear this particular 3 team tie but I guess we win the 4 way tie with Usc in there

 

[lion1983]

Helpful link to play around with

https://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

So ... current "projection" from this site is one I like (not perfect, but works out as well as anything other than RU winning out - which cannot be projected by any reasonable forecaster):

https://bball.notnothing.net/bracket.php?conf=big10m

RU as the 12th seed would be good, at least for the 1st round: They'd face the now projected 13 seed NW - I like that match-up. Unfortunately, RU would then have to face Michigan a 3rd time ... and then Purdue ...

Now, if RU would win out, the seedings would look totally different: RU would be 10-10, and the 10th seed (losing out to OSU for the bye), would face Minnesota again, back to back ... then Oregon ... then maybe Wisconsin.

That said, look how close everything is - this projection is as valuable - or as worthless - as any other ... so many moving pieces.

 

[lion1983]

OK thanks

I really fear this particular 3 team tie but I guess we win the 4 way tie with Usc in there

In a 4-way tie at 7-13 with NW, Minny and USC, USC ends up 4th in that mini-group with a record of 0-3 amongst the 4 - RU, NW and Minny would all be would be 2-1, without going to the record against teams higher in the standings - thus they would be the 16th team, with RU, NW, Minny as the 13th, 14th and 15th seeds. I do not know if you include USC in the next tiebreaker for the 13th to 15th seeds: They beat MSU, but lost to each of the next 4-6 teams in the standings..

 

[RUtrumpet92]

I found a couple of scenarios where a 10-10 Rutgers would be the #8 seed. The miracle run to the BTT crown would be so much easier if we can somehow get to the 8/9 slot. If only we have defeated Iowa, we could get it by stealing one of these road games and beating Minnesota.

There are very few scenarios I see where we don't make the tournament. It looks like Northwestern needs to finish 8-12 or better for that to happen. There may be other combinations that screw us.

I have not found a way for us to miss the tournament with one more win.

 

[lion1983]

Update - Conference records at 2/27/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder this morning ... good results for RU Wednesday night, with USC and PSU both losing:

7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (9-8) ... USC, Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (8-9) ... @Washington, @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11T. RU (7-10) ... @Michigan, @ Purdue, Minnesota
11T. Nebraska (7-10) ... Minnesota, @Ohio St, Iowa
13T. Minnesota (6-11) ... @Nebraska, Wisconsin, @Rutgers
13T. USC (6-11) ... @Oregon, Washington, @UCLA
13T. Iowa (6-11) ... @Northwestern, Michigan St, @Nebraska
13T. Northwestern (6-11) ... Iowa, UCLA, @Maryland
17. Penn St (5-13) ... Maryland, @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-13) ... Indiana, @USC, Oregon

Every day this will be very fluid.

Who to root for the next couple of days:

Today: RU over @Michigan.

Friday:

1) UCLA over @Purdue ... and ...

2) I have no idea about the Iowa @NW game ... I guess NW, as RU has a tiebreaker over NW - and a 2nd level tiebreaker if UCLA passes Purdue in the standings. Plus NW has a slightly tougher last 2 games (UCLA and @Maryland), vs Iowa's last 2 (MSU and @Nebraska).

If RU can somehow upset Michigan, that will come very close to mathematically locking up making the Big 10 tourney, and strongly, exponentially, increase the odds of doing so mathematical guarantee or not.

 

[robjknight]

I’m in favor of winning out!!

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Vs. Illinois, 1-0, (12-8, 10-10)
@ Oregón, 0-1, (12-8, 9-11)
@ Indiana, 0-1, (11-9, 8-12)
@ Ohio St, 0-1, (10-10, 8-12)
Rutgers. X-X, (10-10, 7-13)
@ Neb, 1-0, (10-10, 7-13)
Vs Minn, 0-0, (9-11, 6-14)
Vs USC, 1-0, (9-11, 6-14)
Vs Iowa, 0-1, (9-11, 6-14)
@ NW, 1-0, (9-11, 6-14)
Penn St, 1-1, (7-13, 5-15)
@ Wash, 1-0, (7-13, 4-16)

If we win tonight or just one more, it's oretty close to a lock we avoid 16-18. We would need all 4 6-11 teams to win 3 due to tiebreakers below us, which is impossible with NW and Iowa playing each other.

 

[Bigs Hanter]

It looks like a win tonight still would not clinch us a spot in the Tournament. It would take some insane bad luck, but I was able to find a few scenarios, including this one with 6 teams at 8-12 where we end up the odd team out.

Screenshot-2025-02-27-110813 hosted at ImgBB

Image Screenshot-2025-02-27-110813 hosted in ImgBB

ibb.co

 

[RUGiddy777]

Not gonna lie, I’m rooting more for a 2-1 finish than a 3-0 finish. Best case to me is a 2-1 finish and somehow snagging the last bye. Not sure our team has the mental makeup to ride a 5 game win streak into the BTT and not lose focus over what could be another 5 game stretch.

 

[RUHotTrumpetMonkeyLove]

A team with 8 wins not making the conference tournament would be criminal.

 

[Treaster51]

Psu and Washington are done as far as taking our spot. Essentially just need to finish ahead of someone like NW who based on their schedule shouldn’t be tough

 

[RUtrumpet92]

It looks like a win tonight still would not clinch us a spot in the Tournament. It would take some insane bad luck, but I was able to find a few scenarios, including this one with 6 teams at 8-12 where we end up the odd team out.

Screenshot-2025-02-27-110813 hosted at ImgBB

Image Screenshot-2025-02-27-110813 hosted in ImgBB

ibb.co

Mathematically possible, yes... but extremely unlikely IMO.

Northwestern needs to beat Iowa (home), UCLA (home), and win at Maryland.

Then Iowa needs to beat Michigan State (home) and win at Nebraska.

Then USC needs to win at Oregon, beat Washington at home, then win at UCLA.

Then Nebraska needs to beat Minnesota (home) and win at Ohio State.

Then Minnesota needs to beat Wisconsin (home) and Rutgers (away).

Plus we need to lose at Purdue, too.

That's 13 games that would need to break exactly right to finish as the 16 seed if we win tonight. Even if everyone of those games was 80% likely to happen, the chances of them all happening would be 5.49%. If each game is 60% likely to go the required way, the odds are .1306%. If it is 50/50 in every game, the odds fall to 0.0122%.

The Northwestern/Iowa game desired outcome depends on the goal you want. If it is just for RU to make the tournament, I think you want NW to lose. They could lose out at that point, and we'd be guaranteed in even if we lose out.

If the goal is to get the highest possible seed, you want NW to beat Iowa tomorrow.

 

[zebnatto]

OK, so let’s see how I’m doing on all this stuff: as of this moment noon on Thursday, our chances of making the tournament are about 85%; our chances of getting the ninth seed and avoiding the first round are about 5%. One win in any of our next three games brings the tournament likelihood up to about 95%. If we win two of the next three, our chances of getting the nine seed dropped to one or 2%. If we win all three, our chances of getting the nine seed go up to about 20%. Polite corrections welcome.

 

[Bigs Hanter]

OK, so let’s see how I’m doing on all this stuff: as of this moment noon on Thursday, our chances of making the tournament are about 85%; our chances of getting the ninth seed and avoiding the first round are about 5%. One win in any of our next three games brings the tournament likelihood up to about 95%. If we win two of the next three, our chances of getting the nine seed dropped to one or 2%. If we win all three, our chances of getting the nine seed go up to about 20%. Polite corrections welcome.

Through Tuesday, Hackman had our chances of making the tournament at 94%, if anything I think they probably went up with yesterday's results. He had us at a 1.6% chance of getting the 7,8, or 9 seed. I think OSU and Indiana winning would've hurt those chances, so I think that is likely lower now. One win in our next 3, I think we are 99.5%+ in (and higher if that win is vs Minn).

Bart gives us a 1.3% chance to win all 3 of our remaining games, but even at 10 wins we lose tiebreakers to Oregon, Indiana, OSU. Nebraska beating OSU becomes the important game in this scenario (or Wash over Indiana or Illinois losing out). 20% seems a bit low, but it's surely under 50%

 

[RUJMM78]

At least half the teams will have at least 10 league losses.

 

[RuWishBone]

There was not a mention of a player or coach in this thread its all about the team now. It's a war now, survive and the war goes on.

 

[Bigs Hanter]

At least half the teams will have at least 10 league losses.

Yes, half the teams already have 10 league losses. Illinois and Indiana could make it 11/18

 

[Loyal_2RU]

Update - Conference records at 2/27/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder this morning ... good results for RU Wednesday night, with USC and PSU both losing:

7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (9-8) ... USC, Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (8-9) ... @Washington, @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11T. RU (7-10) ... @Michigan, @ Purdue, Minnesota
11T. Nebraska (7-10) ... Minnesota, @Ohio St, Iowa
13T. Minnesota (6-11) ... @Nebraska, Wisconsin, @Rutgers
13T. USC (6-11) ... @Oregon, Washington, @UCLA
13T. Iowa (6-11) ... @Northwestern, Michigan St, @Nebraska
13T. Northwestern (6-11) ... Iowa, UCLA, @Maryland
17. Penn St (5-13) ... Maryland, @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-13) ... Indiana, @USC, Oregon

Every day this will be very fluid.

Who to root for the next couple of days:

Today: RU over @Michigan.

Friday:

1) UCLA over @Purdue ... and ...

2) I have no idea about the Iowa @NW game ... I guess NW, as RU has a tiebreaker over NW - and a 2nd level tiebreaker if UCLA passes Purdue in the standings. Plus NW has a slightly tougher last 2 games (UCLA and @Maryland), vs Iowa's last 2 (MSU and @Nebraska).

If RU can somehow upset Michigan, that will come very close to mathematically locking up making the Big 10 tourney, and strongly, exponentially, increase the odds of doing so mathematical guarantee or not.

I think last night's results were bad. I want to finish 9. Could have knocked osu behind us and brought Indiana into a tie...

 

[RUTrack94]

Why bother worrying and talking what if’s … usually ends up in the worst outcome.

 

[lion1983]

Update - Conference records at 3/1/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder this morning:

7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (9-8) ... USC, Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (8-9) ... @Washington, @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11. Nebraska (7-10) ... Minnesota, @Ohio St, Iowa
12. RU (7-11) ... @ Purdue, Minnesota
13. Northwestern (7-11) ... UCLA, @Maryland
14T. Minnesota (6-11) ... @Nebraska, Wisconsin, @Rutgers
14T. USC (6-11) ... @Oregon, Washington, @UCLA
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St, @Nebraska
17. Washington (4-13) ... Indiana, @USC, Oregon
18. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin

Every day this will be very fluid.

Who to root for the next couple of days:

Saturday:

Maryland over PSU (just finished with the correct result for RU).

Indiana over Washington - seeding no longer matters for RU, get Washington DONE with 14 losses.

Oregon over USC - get USC to 12 losses, with Washington and @ UCLA left - RU does own the 2-way tiebreaker with USC, but better to get them to 14 losses if possible.

I guess Nebraska over Minnesota - get Minnesota to 12 losses with Wisconsin and @RU left. If Minny loses to Nebraska, root like hell for Wisconsin to beat Nebraska - give them 13 losses going into the RU game ... though it makes RU and Minny both likely desperate to win.

Sunday:

RU over @Purdue, of course - would mean a guaranteed slot in the Big 10 tourney if USC loses Saturday to Oregon.


RU can't actually mathematically lock in a Big Tourney slot this weekend, even if RU beats Purdue and USC loses to Oregon. They would still need Iowa or USC to get to 13 losses - which cannot happen until later in the week, or be sure they finish in a tie with a group of teams in which RU has the advantage in that mini-pool of tied teams, or finish in a 2-way tie with Nebraska, USC or NW, over whom RU has the advantage (or Minny if RU beats Minny - but that won't happen until the last game).

 

[bac2therac]

Iowa is pretty likely to finish 6-14 and miss

 

[LOU-RU85]

Iowa is pretty likely to finish 6-14 and miss

We should have beaten these guys. Ugh.

 

[Treaster51]

Iowa is pretty likely to finish 6-14 and miss

Yeah correct me if I’m wrong but pretty confident Rutgers gets in big ten tourney without having to win another game?

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Yeah correct me if I’m wrong but pretty confident Rutgers gets in big ten tourney without having to win another game?

It's highly likely but not guaranteed yet.

 

[lion1983]

Update - Conference records after 3/1/25, plus remaining opponents ... renumbered, updated record and remaining opponents - did reorder this morning:

7. Illinois (10-8) ... @Mich, Purdue
8. Oregon (10-8) ... Indiana, @Washington
9. Indiana (9-9) ... @Oregon, Ohio St
10. Ohio St (8-10) ... Nebraska, @Indiana
11T. RU (7-11) ... @ Purdue, Minnesota
11T. Nebraska (7-11) ... @Ohio St, Iowa
11T. Northwestern (7-11) ... UCLA, @Maryland
11T. Minnesota (7-11) ... Wisconsin, @Rutgers
15. USC (6-12) ... Washington, @UCLA
16. Iowa (6-12) ... Michigan St, @Nebraska
17. Penn St (5-14) ... @Wisconsin
18. Washington (4-14) ... @USC, Oregon

PSU and Washington are 100% out of the running, , even if Iowa and USC each lose out to 14 losses, and PSU and Washington remain with 14 losses. Even in a 4-way ties at 14 losses, here is how it shakes out: Washington, to tie with USC and Iowa would have to beat USC and Oregon - they would then have a 1-1 record vs USC, an 0-1 record vs Iowa and 1-0 vs PSU. PSU would have an 0-1 vs Washington, 0-1 vs Iowa and 0-1 vs USC. Iowa would be 1-0 vs PSU, 1-0 vs Washington, 0-1 vs USC. USC would be 1-1 vs Washington, and 1-0 vs PSU and 1-0 vs Iowa. In a 4-way tie at 14 losses, USC would get the 15th seed, the others out, with a 3-1 mini-pool record vs Iowa's 2-1, Washington's 2-2 and PSU's 0-3.

Every day this will be very fluid.

With the loss to Michigan, the only thing that matters for RU is to get into the Big 10 tournament, and hope to win 5 in a row (the 9th seed is out of reach, so no single bye is possible. RU COULD finish 10th, if RU beats Purdue and Minnesota and OSU loses out (to Nebraska and Indiana) - but it is not all that relevant whether RU finishes 10th, 11th or 15th - as long as they make the Big 10 tournament.

So ... in the above context, who to root for the next couple of days:

Sunday 3/2: No games matter for RU purposes.

Monday, 3/3:

UCLA vs Northwestern: Root for UCLA to beat NW to give NW 12 conference losses.

Tuesday, 3/4:

RU @Purdue: Obviously root hard for RU

Nebraska @OSU: Root for OSU to give Nebraska 12 conference losses

Indiana @Oregon: No longer relevant (if RU had beaten Michigan, it might have been relevant for seeding purposes, but not relevant any more.

Wednesday, 3/5:

Wisconsin @Minnesota: Root for Wisconsin, get Minnesota to 12 losses ... Even if RU beats Purdue, RU might STILL have to beat Minnesota to make the Big 10 tourney ... It depends on how other games shake out.

Washington @USC: Root for Washington, though they are not very good, even at home. Still, getting USC to 13 losses would be good for RU.

Maryland @Michigan is not relevant for RU.

A reminder - others have posted on this:

1) RU wins the tiebreaker in 2-way ties with NW, Nebraska and USC. And Minnesota if RU beats Minnesota.

2) RU would win in a 3-way tie in the following combos, due to having a better mini-pool record: a) RU, NW, Nebraska; b) RU, USC, Nebraska; c) if they BEAT Minnesota, then RU, Minnesota, USC; d) If RU BEATS Minnesota, then RU, Minnesota, NW, e) if RU BEATS Minnesota, then RU, Minnesota, NW.

3) It starts getting really complicated in other 3-way ties - Minnesota, if they beat RU, will be 1-0 vs ALL the potential teams with whom they would tie: RU, Iowa, Nebraska, NW, and USC. Iowa would be 1-0 vs RU, NW and Nebraska, 0-1 vs Minnesota and USC. NW is 0-1 vs RU, Minnesota and Iowa, 1-0 vs Nebraska and USC. Nebraska is 0-1 vs 4 potential teams with whom they could be tied, but 1-0 vs USC. USC is 1-0 vs Nebraska and Iowa, 0-1 vs RU, NW and Minnesota. Someone else can work out these permutations today, LOL!

The odds still are that RU makes the Big 10 tourney even losing out - and a bit stronger if RU goes 1-1 ... I THINK guaranteed if RU beats Minnesota.