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RU opens at +19 @ Wisconsin

...give the points. We're lucky we can even field a defense at this point and our best player is injured.


Joe P.
 
Badgers banged up too. Seems way high. Maybe 12 or so. But come enjoy the atmosphere and city. You won't regret it.
 
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Badgers banged up too. Seems way high. Maybe 12 or so. But come enjoy the atmosphere and city. You won't regret it.

...I don't think you've seen us play "defense" this year. If your team is capable of throwing a forward pass you're guaranteed at least 5 scores.


Joe P.
 
#8 D in the nation guys. We didn't s score until garbage time, against the previous number 19 D in the nation, and we only moved the ball effectively on the first drive and last drive of the game. Also, watch Cory Clement come back, and I have a huge game.

Line seems right to me with HFA included.
 
I would not touch this game. I did some statistical analysis today that suggests a 34-14 Wisconsin win at home. Not that it means anything but based on the two teams performances so far that spread is right on.
 
Was curious so just stopped 20 minutes ago at one of the casinos (Hard Rock in Tahoe) and the line is currently 20.5. This is a William Hill Sports Book.

Also found out that they have an app that allows people to bet on their phone from anywhere in NV. Seems kind of scary for you compulsive gamblers out here.
 
With carroo playing we scored a lot against msu and indiana. With him not or mostly not playing we've scored 10 points against psu and osu. It does not bode well for saturday.
 
I would not touch this game. I did some statistical analysis today that suggests a 34-14 Wisconsin win at home. Not that it means anything but based on the two teams performances so far that spread is right on.

Did that analysis account for their D only giving up 4 PPG at home this year?
 
I would not touch this game. I did some statistical analysis today that suggests a 34-14 Wisconsin win at home. Not that it means anything but based on the two teams performances so far that spread is right on.
You know Vegas already did the statistical analysis right?
 
With carroo playing we scored a lot against msu and indiana. With him not or mostly not playing we've scored 10 points against psu and osu. It does not bode well for saturday.
Carroo is a huge asset, no doubt. But we have enough good skill players on offense to score even without Carroo.

IMO, where we suffer the most against the top Big Ten teams is in our line play. Even with a first year starter at QB, when we consistently protect and run block, we score points. When we don't consistently protect and run block, we struggle to score. In order for the O to be successful, the line has to be consistently successful at what it's trying to do. I think it's that simple.

Same goes for defense. Given the personnel losses on D this season, we're going to give up points no matter what. But when we're getting pressure on the QB with the front four and maybe one extra player, we can limit the really big plays. When we can't get pressure on the QB without more than 5 guys, we either have to send more and put our DBs one on one without help or we have to play zone and the QB and receivers have all day to find the holes.

I'll put it another way. Even with a healthy Carroo, if the QB doesn't have time to throw, it limits what Carroo can do for us. And if we can't run the ball, the QB isn't going to have enough time because the D will come after the QB until we show we can run the ball.
 
Carroo is a huge asset, no doubt. But we have enough good skill players on offense to score even without Carroo.

Eh, I'm not sure about that, to be honest. Yes, our backs look GREAT against very bad D's, as do our other WR's, but once we play good D's the skill sets these guys have are pretty much negated (granted, somewhat do to the OL, no doubt...). Somebody said last week "how is OSU going to stop us when Carroo and Agudosi are on the field together."

I mean really??? The the poster was basing this off of Carlton's 3-catch performance against the 12th WORST Pass Efficiency D in the nation - Indiana - prior to playing the 2nd BEST PED in the nation.

Bottom line: you can't base your expectations, for this O, on how its played against some of the worst D's in the nation (NFSU, Wazzou (97th), IU (119th), and KU (dead-last at 127th and we didn't score much to be honest...).
 
Eh, I'm not sure about that, to be honest. Yes, our backs look GREAT against very bad D's, as do our other WR's, but once we play good D's the skill sets these guys have are pretty much negated (granted, somewhat do to the OL, no doubt...). Somebody said last week "how is OSU going to stop us when Carroo and Agudosi are on the field together."

I mean really??? The the poster was basing this off of Carlton's 3-catch performance against the 12th WORST Pass Efficiency D in the nation - Indiana - prior to playing the 2nd BEST PED in the nation.

Bottom line: you can't base your expectations, for this O, on how its played against some of the worst D's in the nation (NFSU, Wazzou (97th), IU (119th), and KU (dead-last at 127th and we didn't score much to be honest...).
I hear what you're saying. I'm not one to be provincial about putting our players on pedestals. In other words, I tend not to put much stock into statements where our fans claim that we have the best RBs in the Big Ten or similar homer statements about our players because those statements are often made ignorant of the quality of the other teams' skill players, all of whom are pretty good or they wouldn't be playing where they're playing.

However, I've seen enough out of both our WRs and RBs to know that they can get the job done if they are put in the right position to do so. I'm not making a comparative judgement about them. Just saying they can have success against any other team in the Big Ten if everything else goes right. For sure they will always look better against weaker teams than against the elite teams.

Where we might break a run for TD against an Indiana, we might only gain 5-10 yards against an OSU. Because OSU's linebackers and secondary players are going to be athletically superior, generally speaking, than Indiana's players. So even when the O line creates a hole and our RB gets through it, the OSU players can close down on the RB quickly. But 5-10 yards on a run is enough to win a game if it's happening a handful of times or more on each possession. Because it opens up the passing game.

My point stands that if the D and O lines consistently outperform our opponent's D and O lines, we're going to have a really good shot at winning the game. Our skill players, IMO, are good enough to hit the holes, make the catches, even tough ones, and gain some extra yards even against good teams. But if the D and O lines cannot consistently outperform, or at least match, our opponents D and O lines, then we're not good enough to win. With or without Carroo.
 
Obviously, however, they'd likely hold either team to a season low.
I'm not saying their D isn't good. It's just kinda relevant to check out WHO they played at home thus far....especially given that 4-point per game thing.
Well, it was Miami(Ohio), Troy, Hawaii, Iowa, and Purdue. That info helps put the 4 ppg into a little better context.
 
I'm not saying their D isn't good. It's just kinda relevant to check out WHO they played at home thus far....especially given that 4-point per game thing.
Well, it was Miami(Ohio), Troy, Hawaii, Iowa, and Purdue. That info helps put the 4 ppg into a little better context.

So why bring up TCU and Baylor? They play nothing BUT bad defenses lol!

(I get it, don't get me wrong, but we're talking FOUR PPG at home...not 14....so regardless of whom they've played, let's face it, that's damn impressive!)
 
So why bring up TCU and Baylor? They play nothing BUT bad defenses lol!

'cause when you brought up the 4 ppg. at home stat I was impressed. However, being a Rutgers fan I'm well-schooled in the whole "Who'd they play" stuff. So I checked it out. Miami is 1-7. Hawaii is 2-6. Troy is 2-5, and Purdue is 1-6. Holding undefeated Iowa to 10 points IS impressive...although the Hawkeyes WON that game.
Again, I'm not saying Wisconsin doesn't have a fine D. I'm just saying that if "Who'd they play" is good for a little context vis-a-vis Rutgers it's also good for Wisconsin.
It also makes me less pessimistic about our chances of scoring on Saturday. I mean we may well be the best offense they've faced at home thus far this season.
 
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'cause when you brought up the 4 ppg. at home stat I was impressed. However, being a Rutgers fan I'm well-schooled in the whole "Who'd they play" stuff. So I checked it out. Miami is 1-7. Hawaii is 2-6. Troy is 2-5, and Purdue is 1-6. Holding undefeated Iowa to 10 points IS impressive...although the Hawkeyes WON that game.
Again, I'm not saying Wisconsin doesn't have a fine D. I'm just saying that if "Who'd they play" is good for a little context vis-a-vis Rutgers it's also good for Wisconsin.
It also makes me less pessimistic about our chances of scoring on Saturday. I mean we may well be the best offense they've faced at home thus far this season.

Okay, I'll give us 14 points on Saturday, you made a good argument! Remember, our offense that has played GREAT against God-awful D's (NFSU, Wazzou (97th), IU (115th) and KU (127th), and okay against MSU (37th and dropping...took advantage of a very weak/depleted secondary, however, to score points...yardage was "okay" at about 350...).
 
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