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RU Seeding Possibilities in Big 10 Tournament

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lion1983

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So ... some won't care - if you do not care, no need to read this or comment.

RU Gets the 11th Seed if ... and only if ...

RU beats Minnesota ... no other games would matter, as RU would own the tiebreakers in all circumstances.

RU would play the 14th seed - not clear who that would be at this time ... Minnesota would have 13 losses ... if NW and USC lose, as expected, they would each have 13 losses ... If Iowa beats Nebraska BOTH of them would have 13 losses ... If Nebraska wins, Iowa is out as the 16th team, and Nebraska would have an 8-12 record, but lose the tiebreaker to RU and be the 12th seed.

RU Gets the 12th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

RU ends up tied in a multi-team "mini-pool" with Nebraska, Iowa, NW and USC - all with 13 losses in conference ... in other words if Iowa beats Nebraska and NW and USC both lose, so there is a 5-way tie for 12th. RU would have the best mini-pool record (done by winning percentage) at 3-1 ... Iowa would be 2-2, Nebraska would be 2-3, NW would be 3-4 and USC would be 2-2. Nebraska would be the odd team out with the lowest winning percentage (.400) to NW's .428.

RU cannot get the 12th seed if they lose to Minnesota and Nebraska beats Iowa (Nebraska would be 8-12 vs RU being 7-13).

In this scenario, RU would play the 13th seed USC in the 1st round (USC with a 2-2 mini-pool record the same as Iowa, owns the next tiebreaker over Iowa, as they beat MSU, the top Big 10 team, while Iowa best win is Illinois) ... Indiana OR OSU would play the 15th seed (NW), Minnesota would play Iowa.

RU Gets the 13th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

RU ends up in a mini-pool with NW and USC - each with a 7-13 conference record ... Iowa is the odd team out because they would have 14 losses after losing to Nebraska. RU would have a mini-pool record of 2-0, vs NW being 1-1 and USC would be 0-2.

RU would then play the 12th seed ... Which would be Nebraska, who at the same 8-12 record as Minnesota would lose the tiebreaker.

RU Gets the 14th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

RU ends up tied in a 2-way tie with either NW or USC - meaning one of those 2 gain upset wins this weekend, and only one finishes at 7-13 alone with RU, and Nebraska beats Iowa - leaving Iowa as the odd team out and Nebraska with an 8-12 record.

RU would then play the 11th seed, which would be ... complicated ... as there would be a 3-way tie at 8-12 with either Minnesota, Nebraska and either NW OR USC. Nebraska would be 1-1 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and NW, 0-2 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and USC ... Minnesota would be 1-1 in a mini-pool with Nebraska and NW, 2-0 in a mini-pool with Nebraska and USC ... USC would be 1-1 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and Nebraska ... NW would be 2-0 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and Nebraska.:

1) In a 3-way tie between Minnesota, Nebraska and NW, then NW would be the 11th seed with the best mini-pool record​
2) In a 3-way tie between Minnesota, Nebraska and USC, then Minnesota would be the 11th seed with the best mini-pool record.​

RU Gets the 15th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

NW and USC both win in upsets and either Nebraska beats Iowa (Iowa with 14 losses is out and Nebraska is 8-12 and RU is alone at 7-13;

OR if Iowa beats Nebraska ... In a 3-team mini-pool of these 3 teams, RU would be 1-1, Iowa would be 3-0 and finish 14th, and Nebraska would be the odd team out at 0-3 in the mini-pool.

RU would then play either Indiana or OSU, who play each other this weekend ... the loser is the 10th seed.

I THINK I got all this correct, no guarantees.
 
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Seems if we win, we are very likely to play Minnesota again if all the other favorites win but correct me if I am wrong
 
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Simce91 said:
It may be just me, however who cares about the seed,

RU is in and can hopefully pull their heads out of their arses and get a couple of W's
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Sorry for being a Debbie Downer, but they haven't shown they can do that all year, don't think it's happening now miraculously. If I'm wrong I'll be very happy to admit it.
 
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fatsam98 said:
If you're an optimist I think you're just rooting for whatever seed sets us up to play teams we can actually beat (e.g., not Purdue).
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In previous seasons Rutgers won games against Purdue thanks to Harper and Spencer.
 
fatsam98 said:
If you're an optimist I think you're just rooting for whatever seed sets us up to play teams we can actually beat (e.g., not Purdue).
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The ideal path is probably to get 11 seed would probably draw UCLA as the 6 and the 3 is currently Maryland

That is the only draw that gives me more than 0% hope to win a few games
 
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For matchup purposes, I will assume Maryland beats Northwestern and UCLA beats USC. These seem to be high favorites and it cuts the options down drastically.

Rutgers and Nebraska both win: we play Minnesota

Rutgers and Iowa both win: we play USC.

Rutgers loses, Nebraska wins: we play Nebraska

Rutgers loses, Iowa wins: we play Iowa.

It looks like we are 15 and play the Indiana/Ohio State loser if we lose and both USC and Northwestern pull off the upsets.
 
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lion1983 said:
So ... some won't care - if you do not care, no need to read this or comment.

RU Gets the 11th Seed if ... and only if ...

RU beats Minnesota ... no other games would matter, as RU would own the tiebreakers in all circumstances.

RU would play the 14th seed - not clear who that would be at this time ... Minnesota would have 13 losses ... if NW and USC lose, as expected, they would each have 13 losses ... If Iowa beats Nebraska BOTH of them would have 13 losses ... If Nebraska wins, Iowa is out as the 16th team, and Nebraska would have an 8-12 record, but lose the tiebreaker to RU and be the 12th seed.

RU Gets the 12th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

RU ends up tied in a multi-team "mini-pool" with Nebraska, Iowa, NW and USC - all with 13 losses in conference ... in other words if Iowa beats Nebraska and NW and USC both lose, so there is a 5-way tie for 12th. RU would have the best mini-pool record (done by winning percentage) at 3-1 ... Iowa would be 2-2, Nebraska would be 2-3, NW would be 3-4 and USC would be 2-2. Nebraska would be the odd team out with the lowest winning percentage (.400) to NW's .428.

RU cannot get the 12th seed if they lose to Minnesota and Nebraska beats Iowa (Nebraska would be 8-12 vs RU being 7-13).

In this scenario, RU would play the 13th seed USC in the 1st round (USC with a 2-2 mini-pool record the same as Iowa, owns the next tiebreaker over Iowa, as they beat MSU, the top Big 10 team, while Iowa best win is Illinois) ... Indiana OR OSU would play the 15th seed (NW), Minnesota would play Iowa.

RU Gets the 13th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

RU ends up in a mini-pool with NW and USC - each with a 7-13 conference record ... Iowa is the odd team out because they would have 14 losses after losing to Nebraska. RU would have a mini-pool record of 2-0, vs NW being 1-1 and USC would be 0-2.

RU would then play the 12th seed ... Which would be Nebraska, who at the same 8-12 record as Minnesota would lose the tiebreaker.

RU Gets the 14th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

RU ends up tied in a 2-way tie with either NW or USC - meaning one of those 2 gain upset wins this weekend, and only one finishes at 7-13 alone with RU, and Nebraska beats Iowa - leaving Iowa as the odd team out and Nebraska with an 8-12 record.

RU would then play the 11th seed, which would be ... complicated ... as there would be a 3-way tie at 8-12 with either Minnesota, Nebraska and either NW OR USC. Nebraska would be 1-1 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and NW, 0-2 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and USC ... Minnesota would be 1-1 in a mini-pool with Nebraska and NW, 2-0 in a mini-pool with Nebraska and USC ... USC would be 1-1 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and Nebraska ... NW would be 2-0 in a mini-pool with Minnesota and Nebraska.:

1) In a 3-way tie between Minnesota, Nebraska and NW, then NW would be the 11th seed with the best mini-pool record​
2) In a 3-way tie between Minnesota, Nebraska and USC, then Minnesota would be the 11th seed with the best mini-pool record.​

RU Gets the 15th Seed if ...

RU loses to Minnesota and:

NW and USC both win in upsets and either Nebraska beats Iowa (Iowa with 14 losses is out and Nebraska is 8-12 and RU is alone at 7-13;

OR if Iowa beats Nebraska ... In a 3-team mini-pool of these 3 teams, RU would be 1-1, Iowa would be 3-0 and finish 14th, and Nebraska would be the odd team out at 0-3 in the mini-pool.

RU would then play either Indiana or OSU, who play each other this weekend ... the loser is the 10th seed.

I THINK I got all this correct, no guarantees.
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Holy crap…that’s a lot of scenarios. Good work. I’ll take the lazy way out and what until around 3:30 Sunday and re-visit.
 
GlaFIPLWsAAPtXw


Courtesy of Matt Hackman on X. Confirmation that we are #11 if we win and could be anywhere from 12 to 15 (although this is highly unlikely) with a loss.
 
RUtrumpet92 said:
For matchup purposes, I will assume Maryland beats Northwestern and UCLA beats USC. These seem to be high favorites and it cuts the options down drastically.

Rutgers and Nebraska both win: we play Minnesota

Rutgers and Iowa both win: we play USC.

Rutgers loses, Nebraska wins: we play Nebraska

Rutgers loses, Iowa wins: we play Iowa.

It looks like we are 15 and play the Indiana/Ohio State loser if we lose and both USC and Northwestern pull off the upsets.
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I don’t like the very real possibility of playing Minnesota right after we just beat them.
 
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BillyC80 said:
Or hopefully some other team knocks off Purdue first. They are beatable, just not by us.
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They are beatable if you get TKR in foul trouble. Actually they are extremely beatable for any team that can accomplish that.
 
Seems like if Illinois beats Purdue tonight and we beat Minny, we'd be on opposite sides of the bracket from Purdue.

I don't care who we play in the BTT, except I wanna avoid Purdue. Kind of how I usually feel about Iowa.
 
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Mholinko said:
Maybe Dylan and ace have a kemba walker at the garden type run hidden in there

Wow that was an epic thing to watch
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That Kemba run was something else. UConn was the No. 9 seed in the BET, then won five games and the national title. Almost unbelievably, it got a 3-seed in the big dance. Obviously, conference tourneys meant more in 2011.

Hate the Cuse, but the "McNamara Invitational" was almost as impressive. Biggest difference was the Huskies had to win five games, and the Orange only had to win four.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Big_East_men's_basketball_tournament
 
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PiscatawayMike said:
That Kemba run was something else. UConn was the No. 9 seed in the BET, then won five games and the national title. Almost unbelievably, it got a 3-seed in the big dance. Obviously, conference tourneys meant more in 2011.

Hate the Cuse, but the "McNamara Invitational" was almost as impressive. Biggest difference was the Huskies had to win five games, and the Orange only had to win four.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Big_East_men's_basketball_tournament
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PMike will remember it was not McNamara but it was Rautins The Younger who was the unstoppable force on that Orange team, not evident in box scores but in supernatural, mystical orchestration of the win streak.
 
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Smols said:
Sorry for being a Debbie Downer, but they haven't shown they can do that all year, don't think it's happening now miraculously. If I'm wrong I'll be very happy to admit it.
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How many teams has Ru beaten that are going to tourney?
 
RUtrumpet92 said:
For matchup purposes, I will assume Maryland beats Northwestern and UCLA beats USC. These seem to be high favorites and it cuts the options down drastically.

Rutgers and Nebraska both win: we play Minnesota
Click to expand...

Is this right? Seems unlikely we play them twice no matter what as Minny owns the tie breakers against everyone except NW don’t they? We own the tie breaker vs Nebraska.

If we win - we’re guaranteed the 11 seed. And I’m not sure it’s even possible Minny falls to 15 unless USC pulls an upset.

If we lose - Minny is 11 but we still own the tie breakers over everyone else in the mix except Iowa. Chalk outcomes still avoid the 15 slot.

Am I missing something?
 
According to the mred tiebreaker, if we win and Nebraska wins, plus NW and USC lose, yes - we play Minnesota.

Rutgers and Nebraska would be 8-12. We are 11, they are 12.

Iowa ia 6-14. They're out.

The other three are tied. Northwestern beat Minny and USC so they would be 13. Minny beat USC so they would be 14.

Click the link, put in any combination you want.

Mred big ten seeding
 
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RUtrumpet92 said:
According to the mred tiebreaker, if we win and Nebraska wins, plus NW and USC lose, yes - we play Minnesota.

Rutgers and Nebraska would be 8-12. We are 11, they are 12.

Iowa ia 6-14. They're out.

The other three are tied. Northwestern beat Minny and USC so they would be 13. Minny beat USC so they would be 14.

Click the link, put in any combination you want.

Mred big ten seeding
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Oh nevermind - I was thinking 11 plays 15.
 
Obviously, we can only speculate who we will be playing in the BTT. All I’ve got to say is that if we actually make it to the weekend of the tournament, I will fly to Indianapolis Friday night/Saturday morning to root them on.

I was hoping to travel for March Madness, but all things considered, this might be just as critical/emotional. I would hope if that were to happen that RU fans flood Indianapolis and try to will them to victory. If they scratch and claw and at least try their damndest until the very end, I can at least have some closure for the ending of a season.
 
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Looking like losing to Minn might put us in a better position if things go according to plan otherwise. There's a path of Nebby, Wisconsin and UCLA. Win and it could be Minn rematch, Purdue, Michigan.
 
RuSnp said:
Looking like losing to Minn might put us in a better position if things go according to plan otherwise. There's a path of Nebby, Wisconsin and UCLA. Win and it could be Minn rematch, Purdue, Michigan.
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So then the RU screw has made its decision. Rutgers wins tomorrow.
 
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RuSnp said:
Looking like losing to Minn might put us in a better position if things go according to plan otherwise. There's a path of Nebby, Wisconsin and UCLA. Win and it could be Minn rematch, Purdue, Michigan.
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A 3 game losing streak isn't the best way to enter an elimination tournament. Just sayin
 
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So ... before the USC v UCLA game, after NW lost, RU cannot be the 15th seed. They could still be anywhere from the 11th to 14th seeds.

IF USC loses, RU cannot be the 14th seed either.

IF USC loses, AND Iowa beats Nebraska, and RU loses to Minnesota, RU gets the 12th seed.

If USC loses and Nebraska beats Iowa and RU loses to Minnesota, RU gets the 13th seed.

If RU beats Minnesota, RU gets the 11th seed.

And, in other seeding news:

1) Indiana beat OSU, so Indiana gets the 9th seed and a single bye. OSU gets the 10th seed and plays the 15th seed - which cannot be RU at this stage.

2) If UCLA beats USC, they get the double bye as the 4th seed, Purdue gets the 5th seed and plays the winner of the 12/13 game, and Wisconsin gets the 6th seed and plays the winner of the 11/14 game.
 
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lion1983 said:
So ... before the USC v UCLA game, after NW lost, RU cannot be the 15th seed. They could still be anywhere from the 11th to 14th seeds.

IF USC loses, RU cannot be the 14th seed either.

IF USC loses, AND Iowa beats Nebraska, and RU loses to Minnesota, RU gets the 12th seed.

If USC loses and Nebraska beats Iowa and RU loses to Minnesota, RU gets the 13th seed.

If RU beats Minnesota, RU gets the 11th seed.

And, in other seeding news:

1) Indiana beat OSU, so Indiana gets the 9th seed and a single bye. OSU gets the 10th seed and plays the 15th seed - which cannot be RU at this stage.

2) If UCLA beats USC, they get the double bye as the 4th seed, Purdue gets the 5th seed and plays the winner of the 12/13 game, and Wisconsin gets the 6th seed and plays the winner of the 11/14 game.
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Yeah again, I think you have the tiebreaker rules confused. Everyone else is saying if UCLA wins tonight, Purdue is 6 seed.
 
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fatsam98 said:
Yeah again, I think you have the tiebreaker rules confused. Everyone else is saying if UCLA wins tonight, Purdue is 6 seed.
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Yup.

2 is Maryland if Michigan loses today, 4 Michigan. Reverse those if Michigan wins.

4 is UCLA
5 is Wisconsin
6 is Purdue
7 Illinois
8 Oregon
9 Indiana
10 Ohio State
 
RUDeac said:
So we should lose tomorrow.
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That's a crazy scenario. I'm not disagreeing with the benefit but holy smokes. That Screw comment above is appropriate. I'm rooting for them to win (hear that fellas?) but crazy the implications now.
 
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