Rutgers is 6-3 in B1G when Ace and Dylan are both healthy

[Degaz-RU]

I preface this by saying that I agree with everyone that the supporting cast Pike assembled this year left a lot to be desired and was a major reason we stand at 14-14 (7-10). But the series of injuries, illnesses and misfortunes that beset this team also contributed greatly -- Acuff foot injury, JWill shoulder injury, Dylan flu, Dylan ankle injury, Ogbole knee injury (just when he was starting to contribute), Ace illness/asthma, and JWill flu. Yes, other teams suffered injuries and illnesses, but I'm not making excuses here, just telling the reality that with the subpar supporting cast, Rutgers was just not equipped to operate efficiently with major pieces out of action or limited.

The absence or limitations of Dylan and Ace were the primary factor. Rutgers is 6-3 in games in which both Ace and Dylan were healthy, and a stunning 1-7 in games where one of them was either out or limited.

When both Ace and Dylan were healthy (6-3):

• PSU - win
• OSU - LOSS
• UCLA - win
• Nebraska - win
• Illinois - win
• Iowa - LOSS
• Oregon - LOSS
• Washington - win
• USC - win

When either Ace or Dylan not playing or limited (1-7):

• Dylan flu:
  • Indiana - LOSS
  • Wisky - LOSS
  • Purdue - LOSS
• Dylan ankle:
  • PSU - LOSS
  • MSU - LOSS
  • NW - win
  • Michigan - LOSS
• Ace illness/asthma:
  • Maryland - LOSS

Take this for what it's worth, but despite the limitations on this team, we could be 16-12 or 17-11 if Dylan and Ace had been healthy this year and sitting firmly on the right side of the bubble.

 

[S_Janowski]

100%.

And in before those that will come in and say “but we lost to Kennesaw and Princeton with a healthy Ace and Dylan”.

Yes no crap, every team has bad losses during the year. And younger or newly constructed teams tend to have more bad losses, especially earlier in the year.

Our defense still stinks but there’s not doubt in my mind we would be at least 2-3 wins better right now if Dylan never got the flu / sprained his ankle and these last 3 games would mean a whole lot more to our tournament chances.

 

[seansherm]

I'm still amazed that RU brings in two of the top three talents in the class and they both have asthma/stamina issues. I can't remember seeing a kid that age notably affected by asthma.

 

[socaldave]

I preface this by saying that I agree with everyone that the supporting cast Pike assembled this year left a lot to be desired and was a major reason we stand at 14-14 (7-10). But the series of injuries, illnesses and misfortunes that beset this team also contributed greatly -- Acuff foot injury, JWill shoulder injury, Dylan flu, Dylan ankle injury, Ogbole knee injury (just when he was starting to contribute), Ace illness/asthma, and JWill flu. Yes, other teams suffered injuries and illnesses, but I'm not making excuses here, just telling the reality that with the subpar supporting cast, Rutgers was just not equipped to operate efficiently with major pieces out of action or limited.

The absence or limitations of Dylan and Ace were the primary factor. Rutgers is 6-3 in games in which both Ace and Dylan were healthy, and a stunning 1-7 in games where one of them was either out or limited.

When both Ace and Dylan were healthy (6-3):

• PSU - win
• OSU - LOSS
• UCLA - win
• Nebraska - win
• Illinois - win
• Iowa - LOSS
• Oregon - LOSS
• Washington - win
• USC - win

When either Ace or Dylan not playing or limited (1-7):

• Dylan flu:
  • Indiana - LOSS
  • Wisky - LOSS
  • Purdue - LOSS
• Dylan ankle:
  • PSU - LOSS
  • MSU - LOSS
  • NW - win
  • Michigan - LOSS
• Ace illness/asthma:
  • Maryland - LOSS

Take this for what it's worth, but despite the limitations on this team, we could be 16-12 or 17-11 if Dylan and Ace had been healthy this year and sitting firmly on the right side of the bubble.

Any assessment of the season that does not include Pike’s coaching, including lack of offensive structure , poor player rotations,
Game day scheming, half time adjustments,
Scheduling Princeton, KSU doesn’t accurately reflect why Rutgers is 14-14 and 7-10

 

[socaldave]

100%.

And in before those that will come in and say “but we lost to Kennesaw and Princeton with a healthy Ace and Dylan”.

Yes no crap, every team has bad losses during the year. And younger or newly constructed teams tend to have more bad losses, especially earlier in the year.

Our defense still stinks but there’s not doubt in my mind we would be at least 2-3 wins better right now if Dylan never got the flu / sprained his ankle and these last 3 games would mean a whole lot more to our tournament chances.

Or if Pike didn’t needlessly schedule Princeton and KSU

 

[Mr_Twister]

“Asthma can be a challenging condition for athletes, but with proper management, it is possible to compete at a high level.”
James Harden and Dennis Rodman, for instance.

 

[RUich]

Is 75% what everyone expected at the beginning of the season?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Thanks for the analysis.....
took it one step further....

18 games we are calling them healthy
10 games not

in parenthesis what bart ranking would be

In the 18 games
average adjusted offensive efficiency 1.1671 (40)
average adjusted defensive efficiency 1.0468 (117)
differential .1202 (67)

In the 10 games
average adjusted offensive efficiency 1.11063 (102)
average adjusted defensive efficiency 1.0204 (76)
differential .0859 (83)

EDITED 11:23AM when I noticed I had UCLA in wrong pile

 

[superfan01]

Every team was decimated by flu this year.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Any assessment of the season that does not include Pike’s coaching, including lack of offensive structure , poor player rotations,
Game day scheming, half time adjustments,
Scheduling Princeton, KSU doesn’t accurately reflect why Rutgers is 14-14 and 7-10

This wasn’t intended to be a comprehensive assessment of the entire complex of issues affecting the season. Just wanted to isolate one specific factor, but I would add that… we were still 6-3 in Big Ten games with Ace and Dylan DESPITE the coaching factors you cite.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Thanks for the analysis.....
took it one step further....

17 games we are calling them healthy
11 games not

In the 17 games
average adjusted offensive efficiency 1.1624
average adjusted defensive efficiency 1.0503

In the 11 games
average adjusted offensive efficiency 1.1191
average adjusted defensive efficiency 1.0174

I’d be interested in these stats for the B1G games only (the 9 healthy games vs. the 8 non-healthy games).

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Had the spreadsheet open and just needed to delete the OOC games....

....and noticed I fvcked up as I had UCLA in the wrong pile which makes a huge difference!

B1G only

B1G only rank in ()

healthy
O 1.194 (6)
D 1.038 (16)
diff .156 (10)

not healthy
O 1.1183 (16)
D 1.0192 (12)
diff .099 (16)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I think the bottom line is we are better offensively "healthy" (DUH), but at best no better defensively "healthy".

I have a tough time thinking the added offense is enough to put us over the hump in more than 1 or 2 games.

Obviously 1 game would be enough to give us an at large hope.

 

[kt124]

is this supposed to be a way of excusing the coaching staff? or just something that is supposed to help us cope with the failure?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

The other consideration to make with the analysis.......
The Iowa game we were great when Ace and Dylan were off the floor together. I think we win that game if Dylan was out.

 

[mjjoyce51]

The other consideration to make with the analysis.......
The Iowa game we were great when Ace and Dylan were off the floor together. I think we win that game if Dylan was out.

Iowa and Oregon were just really strange games and I was convinced that they had officially checked out. Those were the first two games where neither one really showed up. It's unfortunate because the rest of the team did for the most part.

 

[darkcheck]

I preface this by saying that I agree with everyone that the supporting cast Pike assembled this year left a lot to be desired and was a major reason we stand at 14-14 (7-10). But the series of injuries, illnesses and misfortunes that beset this team also contributed greatly -- Acuff foot injury, JWill shoulder injury, Dylan flu, Dylan ankle injury, Ogbole knee injury (just when he was starting to contribute), Ace illness/asthma, and JWill flu. Yes, other teams suffered injuries and illnesses, but I'm not making excuses here, just telling the reality that with the subpar supporting cast, Rutgers was just not equipped to operate efficiently with major pieces out of action or limited.

The absence or limitations of Dylan and Ace were the primary factor. Rutgers is 6-3 in games in which both Ace and Dylan were healthy, and a stunning 1-7 in games where one of them was either out or limited.

When both Ace and Dylan were healthy (6-3):

• PSU - win
• OSU - LOSS
• UCLA - win
• Nebraska - win
• Illinois - win
• Iowa - LOSS
• Oregon - LOSS
• Washington - win
• USC - win

When either Ace or Dylan not playing or limited (1-7):

• Dylan flu:
  • Indiana - LOSS
  • Wisky - LOSS
  • Purdue - LOSS
• Dylan ankle:
  • PSU - LOSS
  • MSU - LOSS
  • NW - win
  • Michigan - LOSS
• Ace illness/asthma:
  • Maryland - LOSS

Take this for what it's worth, but despite the limitations on this team, we could be 16-12 or 17-11 if Dylan and Ace had been healthy this year and sitting firmly on the right side of the bubble.

Appreciate the preface, and love your post game recaps, but this says maybe 16-12. We could have done that if we just beat Kennesaw and Princeton which Pike should have been able to do with what he had.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Iowa and Oregon were just really strange games and I was convinced that they had officially checked out. Those were the first two games where neither one really showed up. It's unfortunate because the rest of the team did for the most part.

i am going with "the WALL".

people will debate me and there obviously no way to prove, but I am sticking with it.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Appreciate the preface, and love your post game recaps, but this says maybe 16-12. We could have done that if we just beat Kennesaw and Princeton which Pike should have been able to do with what he had.

I never saw Pike in the game. Players play the game. Too much credit and too much blame go to coaches.

Ace had 1 rebound against Kennesaw State and we got obliterated on the glass. So that is Pike's fault

 

[dconifer]

Iowa and Oregon were just really strange games and I was convinced that they had officially checked out. Those were the first two games where neither one really showed up. It's unfortunate because the rest of the team did for the most part.

Maybe the "they were checked out" games should be disregarded as well...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Also not sure who did the analysis.......take a look at our performance with Derkack in rotation vs out rotation.

 

[bac2therac]

I never saw Pike in the game. Players play the game. Too much credit and too much blame go to coaches.

Ace had 1 rebound against Kennesaw State and we got obliterated on the glass. So that is Pike's fault

at one point we were outscored 40-15 to that team...its an inexcusable on any level...a complete breakdown of coaching and players mental capabilities...not impressed by some frantic comeback that failed in the 2nd half

 

[Southside Lonny]

i am going with "the WALL".

people will debate me and there obviously no way to prove, but I am sticking with it.

Not disputing that "the Wall" for freshman is a real thing (and is something I've also personally witnessed in my son's (albeit div. 3) experience); how can we explain the current resurgence?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

at one point we were outscored 40-15 to that team...its an inexcusable on any level...a complete breakdown of coaching and players mental capabilities...not impressed by some frantic comeback that failed in the 2nd half

We have had Pike here for 9 years......we haven't seen anything like this before.

At some point you need to come to the conclusion the lion share of the blame HAS to go to the players.

Rutgers basketball is on the map because Pike gets players to play hard. We are the opposite of IOWA. He is the furthest from an offensive mind.

So all of a sudden Pike can't players to play hard. NO!

 

[bac2therac]

We have had Pike here for 9 years......we haven't seen anything like this before.

At some point you need to come to the conclusion the lion share of the blame HAS to go to the players.

Rutgers basketball is on the map because Pike gets players to play hard. We are the opposite of IOWA. He is the furthest from an offensive mind.

So all of a sudden Pike can't players to play hard. NO!

he had zero control over them the first part of the season..they ran the show period

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

he had zero control over them the first part of the season..they ran the show period

1. Is that his fault?
2. I don't know if anything has really changed through out the season

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Not disputing that "the Wall" for freshman is a real thing (and is something I've also personally witnessed in my son's (albeit div. 3) experience); how can we explain the current resurgence?

My son's experience had him breaking through the wall after a few weeks of lethargy

 

[bac2therac]

1. Is that his fault?
2. I don't know if anything has really changed through out the season

1. yes
2. i think there is some more accountability..perhaps not as much as we would like. We shoud never take one and dones anymore....Pitino is so right on 5 star high school players

 

[darkcheck]

I never saw Pike in the game. Players play the game. Too much credit and too much blame go to coaches.

Ace had 1 rebound against Kennesaw State and we got obliterated on the glass. So that is Pike's fault

BS. Then why have one.

 

[darkcheck]

We have had Pike here for 9 years......we haven't seen anything like this before.

At some point you need to come to the conclusion the lion share of the blame HAS to go to the players.

Rutgers basketball is on the map because Pike gets players to play hard. We are the opposite of IOWA. He is the furthest from an offensive mind.

So all of a sudden Pike can't players to play hard. NO!

Are you kidding? There’s a whole history of collapses, runs against us and scoring droughts

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

1. yes
2. i think there is some more accountability..perhaps not as much as we would like. We shoud never take one and dones anymore....Pitino is so right on 5 star high school players

Why was I the ONLY one saying this BEFORE the season?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Are you kidding? There’s a whole history of collapses, runs against us and scoring droughts

That is sports.

Did Pike get a huge raise because he was lucky?
Did we get lucky that Ace and Dylan thought of RU as a landing spot?

Think what you want. Pikiell resurrected the program. The reason you are even on this message board is because of what he built.

You joined the message board in 2022…..because of him.

 

[darkcheck]

That is sports.

Did Pike get a huge raise because he was lucky?
Did we get lucky that Ace and Dylan thought of RU as a landing spot?

Think what you want. Pikiell resurrected the program. The reason you are even on this message board is because of what he built.

You joined the message board in 2022…..because of him.

Dude I’ve been a fan since 83. RC 90. I’m old. Did know rivals existed

Again under your logic why have a coach? It’s comical you say coaches get too much credit and blame, then you say Pike is the absolute program savior.

 

[FerrisBuellerrrrr]

One issue with this analysis is that the top 5 teams in the conference (MSU, UM, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin) are all on the not healthy list. Makes the numbers misleading.

 

[needmorecowbell]

he had zero control over them the first part of the season..they ran the show period

I would say they did not know what they were doing and just did what came natural.

I’ve said it a million times, this team was always going to struggle in November and December. Too many freshman and transfers. Then the illness and injuries hit (Dylan unfortunately the most) in January when they should have been figuring it out but they never could play at full strength.

It’s not an excuse. The roster was clearly not built correctly and this amount of change, with 2 freshmen positioned to lead the team, was very difficult to make work. We are starting to see what they had hoped would come together but it was too little too late.

 

[needmorecowbell]

One issue with this analysis is that the top 5 teams in the conference (MSU, UM, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin) are all on the not healthy list. Makes the numbers misleading.

The only difference is Dylan was the engine of the team. They don’t go when he is not there or less than 100%. He’s the best player in the conference by a wide margin in my opinion.

 

[Degaz-RU]

One issue with this analysis is that the top 5 teams in the conference (MSU, UM, Purdue, Maryland and Wisconsin) are all on the not healthy list. Makes the numbers misleading.

I don't disagree with this, but I still think we could've won 2 or 3 of the 7 losses.

 

[Degaz-RU]

is this supposed to be a way of excusing the coaching staff? or just something that is supposed to help us cope with the failure?

Neither. Just stating the facts.

 

[mjjoyce51]

1. yes
2. i think there is some more accountability..perhaps not as much as we would like. We shoud never take one and dones anymore....Pitino is so right on 5 star high school players

I think the bigger takeaway is they should never put themselves in a position where they have to replace 83% of the prior year's minutes ever again.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I don't disagree with this, but I still think we could've won 2 or 3 of the 7 losses.

maybe.....I still think bottom line, RIGHT NOW, FULLY HEALTHY, we are not a Top 45 team.

We either have to make significant strides defensively or be an elite Top 10 type of offensive team.

Unfortunately for us to be a great offensive team it requires a 1 standard deviation above average shooting night.