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Season Prediction Thread

My main point is I think/hope we have weapons at other positions and better ball movement. I'd like to think the 2 and 3 positions on the floor can score a lot more than they did last year. I'd love to see Kiss, Issa and Mathis combine for 30+ PPG. I am hoping McConnell plays more than backing up Baker at the PG and Harper can play 10+ MPG.

Eugene is a very good passer and I'd love to see him get good shots for others AND put the ball in the basket.

As I said before if we can get equal scoring 1 thru 4 on the floor (say 16 points) you won't see anyone averaging over 12 PPG. Maybe I am being unrealistic or putting too high of expectation on the newcomers.
I think you may be more underestimating potential improvement from Geo/Eugene/Thiam than expecting too much from the newcomers. You generally seem to not expect the "jump" that people here do, or frankly that people that follow other programs get, from year to year.
 
Asking Baker to play out of position as PG where he will be responsible for the offense to flow AND asking him to score 14 PPG is way too much!

Unless there is massive improvement scoring is not what Eugene brings to the table. Asking 12 PPG is a bit much

The thing is, Geo and Gene will be our two primary offensive options, with Kiss and Thiam mixed in as well. When the game is on the line, I want -- and I would guess most people would want -- Geo taking the shots. I don't see where adding 3.2 ppg is too overwhelming for him.

I see your point more with asking Gene to go from 8 ppg to 12 ppg, but again, he was a bench player last year and will be a 30-mpg guy this year, and our most accomplished front-court scoring option, so it's not out of the realm of possibility -- though I admit it will require him to actually hit 15-foot jumpers with some regularity.
 
Asking Baker to play out of position as PG where he will be responsible for the offense to flow AND asking him to score 14 PPG is way too much!

Unless there is massive improvement scoring is not what Eugene brings to the table. Asking 12 PPG is a bit much
EO actually does bring scoring to the table. He is pretty dominate at the high post getting to the basket. He's not a pure shooter clearly but that doesn't mean he can't score. He will get 10 points based on effort and put backs alone a lot of games
 
A year away from breaking 500 and getting out of B10 basement. 13 wins.
 
17 WINS - 13 losses.
That is what we need and that is what we will get. A losing season and finishing in the B1G basement will not improve recruiting no matter how many nice things get said about Pikes. A good coach should have a winning record.
 
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You guys seen it here first. RU will loose no more than 8 games. Let's look at the match ups. We physically match up better than most teams in the country. We're by far Wayyy better than last year's team. This team will beat most of the big ten teams. Split with MSU and beat Michigan. You guys are so stuck on 5 star and 4 star players.. Yes in some instances, but stars mean nothing.. Just an opinion. Ex. Geo.. McConnell was predicted to be a 5 star after his stellar AAU So. season. EO was predicted to be a 4 after his So. Season. So just someone's opinion..
RU have basketball players that can do several things. As opposed to having guys that just do one thing.. Adv. Us.. All star coaching staff.. Adv. Us. Length Adv. Us. Last, you guys are completely sleeping on McConnell, he's a stud. He's really, really good. He'll be starting at pg by Jan. Geo will be at the 2. His natural spot. Not saying McConnell is better, only because your gonna need more ball handlers on the court. Kiss not capable of handling the press, and Montez is just not ready yet. Remember, there's alot of 5 and 4 stars who made it to college and were a bust. Don't get so tunnel vision on stars. Does a kids game translate to college and pro basketball.. Not just high school.. RU will win this year. No I'm not crazy.. Lol..
 
You guys seen it here first. RU will loose no more than 8 games. Let's look at the match ups. We physically match up better than most teams in the country. We're by far Wayyy better than last year's team. This team will beat most of the big ten teams. Split with MSU and beat Michigan. You guys are so stuck on 5 star and 4 star players.. Yes in some instances, but stars mean nothing.. Just an opinion. Ex. Geo.. McConnell was predicted to be a 5 star after his stellar AAU So. season. EO was predicted to be a 4 after his So. Season. So just someone's opinion..
RU have basketball players that can do several things. As opposed to having guys that just do one thing.. Adv. Us.. All star coaching staff.. Adv. Us. Length Adv. Us. Last, you guys are completely sleeping on McConnell, he's a stud. He's really, really good. He'll be starting at pg by Jan. Geo will be at the 2. His natural spot. Not saying McConnell is better, only because your gonna need more ball handlers on the court. Kiss not capable of handling the press, and Montez is just not ready yet. Remember, there's alot of 5 and 4 stars who made it to college and were a bust. Don't get so tunnel vision on stars. Does a kids game translate to college and pro basketball.. Not just high school.. RU will win this year. No I'm not crazy.. Lol..

“RU will Lose no more than 8 games...By January”. There, I fixed it for you. I’m hoping for 13th place. 12th would be fantastic.
 
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To me the goal is not about getting X amount of wins or finishing in 13th place.

It is all about getting on the right path and validating the new pieces are guys that will help us in the future.

We all think the new pieces are quality B1G players, but until they play it is all guesswork.

In Year 3 of the Pikiell regime we have set the foundation, but we really are in Year 1 as far as I am concerned.
 
I'd think 12 or 13 wins and would love to see a repeat of last year's B1G tourney with 2 wins there. The key will be improving as the year goes on because as GRF says right above, this is truly year 1 of the Pikiell regime.
 
You guys seen it here first. RU will loose no more than 8 games. Let's look at the match ups. We physically match up better than most teams in the country. We're by far Wayyy better than last year's team. This team will beat most of the big ten teams. Split with MSU and beat Michigan. You guys are so stuck on 5 star and 4 star players.. Yes in some instances, but stars mean nothing.. Just an opinion. Ex. Geo.. McConnell was predicted to be a 5 star after his stellar AAU So. season. EO was predicted to be a 4 after his So. Season. So just someone's opinion..
RU have basketball players that can do several things. As opposed to having guys that just do one thing.. Adv. Us.. All star coaching staff.. Adv. Us. Length Adv. Us. Last, you guys are completely sleeping on McConnell, he's a stud. He's really, really good. He'll be starting at pg by Jan. Geo will be at the 2. His natural spot. Not saying McConnell is better, only because your gonna need more ball handlers on the court. Kiss not capable of handling the press, and Montez is just not ready yet. Remember, there's alot of 5 and 4 stars who made it to college and were a bust. Don't get so tunnel vision on stars. Does a kids game translate to college and pro basketball.. Not just high school.. RU will win this year. No I'm not crazy.. Lol..
Wow, what are you smoking? Let's get out of last place as the first step before putting us in the NCAA's.
 
Illinois
I just read the preview for Illinois over at BTPowerhouse.com and for the life of me I cannot understand why they are ranked or projected any higher than us. They lost a massive amount of players, including their star and multiple other contributors, and are starting this year with 3 transfers and 6 new recruits. Somehow KenPom has them projected at #85, and us at #149. It seems to just be based on Underwood as the coach. They lost a massive amount of their overall team minutes, have almost no big men, and other than 1 top-50 recruit the rest of their newcomers are no more impressive than ours.


https://www.btpowerhouse.com/2018/1...preview-depth-chart-schedule-roster-underwood
 
Their returning pieces on paper are better than ours and on paper their incoming players are much better than ours. Add the fact that we have been in the basement a long time I think putting Illinois over us is logical.
 
Their returning pieces on paper are better than ours and on paper their incoming players are much better than ours. Add the fact that we have been in the basement a long time I think putting Illinois over us is logical.

They only return 4 contributors, equaling 45% of last years scoring and 36% of last years rebounding. And remember, that was not a good team.

They bring in 1 top 50 freshman, 1 top-150 freshman, and 4 relatively unranked freshman, along with 3 transfers.

Their frontcourt is 1 grad transfer 7-footer, 1 undersized returning forward and 2 freshman.

And again, they were not good last year. I can get the media picking us last until we prove it, but how does KenPom's algorithm have them at 85 and us at 149? They return only 4 players from a bad team.

Just what I'm thinking about this morning... if you're looking for teams we may be able to be better than in conference, I think these guys and Northwestern are candidates
 
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They only return 4 contributors, equaling 45% of last years scoring and 36% of last years rebounding. And remember, that was not a good team.

They bring in 1 top 50 freshman, 1 top-150 freshman, and 4 relatively unranked freshman, along with 3 transfers.

Their frontcourt is 1 grad transfer 7-footer, 1 undersized returning forward and 2 freshman.

And again, they were not good last year. I can get the media picking us last until we prove it, but how does KenPom's algorithm have them at 85 and us at 149? They return only 4 players from a bad team.

Just what I'm thinking about this morning... if you're looking for teams we may be able to be better than in conference, I think these guys and Northwestern are candidates

KenPom's preseason rankings are the least accurate ones he publishes. It relies on past team data and the very true idea that most teams play to their established baseline... Team X has been Y good for the past three years, so they'll be about that good this year. That has merit but obviously a lot of blind spots.

In Pikiell's first year, we started out at 191 and finished at 135. Last year we started at 125 and ended at 120, probably because his algorithm regressed our awful 3P% from 2016-17, but it turned out we were even worse at it last season.

I'm surprised we're so low this year but another thing his model relies on is that losing high-volume players is bad for a team. Even if they're inefficient... the thought being, these guys took so many shots because the other players are even worse, which was true, to an extent. And we lost two very high-usage players in Sanders and Freeman. He also openly admits that his model isn't very good at projecting freshmen/JUCO transfers/newcomers.

Once actual data is being generated for this season, then I'd put more trust in it. Torvik's model on the other hand relies more on individual player components. His has us at 108 right now, which feels more right to me: I think we're a borderline top-100 team, but there's a high degree of uncertainty.
 
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They only return 4 contributors, equaling 45% of last years scoring and 36% of last years rebounding. And remember, that was not a good team.

They bring in 1 top 50 freshman, 1 top-150 freshman, and 4 relatively unranked freshman, along with 3 transfers.

Their frontcourt is 1 grad transfer 7-footer, 1 undersized returning forward and 2 freshman.

And again, they were not good last year. I can get the media picking us last until we prove it, but how does KenPom's algorithm have them at 85 and us at 149? They return only 4 players from a bad team.

Just what I'm thinking about this morning... if you're looking for teams we may be able to be better than in conference, I think these guys and Northwestern are candidates

The 85 is probably right. The 149 is debatable.

However.....
Our starting PG is a 2 guard who played a ton of minutes and shot sub 40% and less than 10 PPG in conference play
Our starting 2 guard is either a freshman or a transfer with terrible shooting numbers as a freshman
Our starting 3 is a player who played a ton of minutes last year and only scored 6 PPG in conference play at a scoring position
Our starting 4 averaged 7.5 PPG in conference play and statisticly at best is an average rebounder
Our starting 5 either is a JUCO who barely saw action in his teams playoff or another who player who didn't excel

I am sorry it is tough on paper to start ranking us in the Top 100. Personally I am expecting us to finish in the Top 100. I love our coaches and I like our players and chemistry.
 
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how good is OSU? at least 3 people picking a W...

OSU was up and down and they lose Diop who covered up a lot of their holes. They recruited alright but can they replace Kam William and Tate? Even so, I can’t see them being better than a middle of the the pack team in conference, which does make them a lot better than Rutgers. When do we get them in the year? They may need to find their way a bit first before replacing that production.
 
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Regular season win probabilities based on what I’ve seen and expect:
8 wins or fewer - 5%
9 - 5%
10 - 5%
11-16 wins - 12% chance of each in that range
17 - 5%
18 -5%
19 or more - 5%
Regular season win probabilities based on what I’ve seen and expect:
8 wins or fewer - 5%
9 - 5%
10 - 5%
11-16 wins - 12% chance of each in that range
17 - 5%
18 -5%
19 or more - 5%
Barring injury, there is a 0 percent chance of us winning nine or less games.
 
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This is probably two games better than I should be predicting as the schedule with 23 of 30 games coming against the power 6 leagues ...

Thinking that we just find a way...and that we will be a pretty tough out

We got to survive the first 1/3 of the big ten schedule which is brutal ...can’t start 0-6....got to find a way to steal one or two of those ...

We also really need to take care of business and go 7-0 against the “easier out of confrence games”....last year’s 15-19 could have been 17-17 if we didn’t blow home games against Hartford and stony brook

And we really need geo to stay healthy ...he is the one guy we cannot afford to get hurt

All in all....think we squeak out 15-15 heading to Chicago for the big ten tournament
 
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Just not seeing it. The loss of Sanders is huge. I’m predicting 9-21. This schedule is not quite the joke it’s been the last two years.
 
The early part of our schedule is much tougher this year, esp considering the adjustments to the loss of Corey and Deshawn and the influx of new players.

My goals for the season are getting out of basement and finishing at .500.
 
I don’t really have expectations for this year but I am excited to watch this team continue to progress under Coach Pike. I think if we can win 14/15 games that will be considered a very successful season with all factors considered.

FDU- W
Drexel- W
St Johns- W
EMU- L
Boston U- W
Miami- L
Michigan St- L
Wiscy- L
Fordham- W
Seton Hall- W
Columbia- W
Maine- W
Maryland- W
Ohio State- W
Minny- L
Purdue- L
Northwestern- W
Nebraska- L
PSU- L
Indiana- L
Ohio state- L
Michigan- L
Illinois- W
Northwestern- L
Iowa- W
Mich State- L
Minny- W
Iowa- L
PSU- W
Indiana- L

15-15 (7-13)
12-18/5-15, but increasingly competitive in games.
Team just has too many new parts to be strong this season, but looking for
marked improvement the following season, where team could win 18-20
and maybe a slight shot at NIT. That's progress.
 
I have updated my base case to 11 wins (which includes a win in 10/14 B1G game again)

BEAR CASE (35%) 9 wins.....Newcomers, as a whole, not ready to make an impact on Day1. Which means 25+ minutes for Issa and seeing 2 bigs on the floor almost exclusively. We have major trouble scoring and it bleeds to the defensive end. 1 injury to a core player makes depth even a bigger issue and guys not ready are being forced in to too many minutes

BASE CASE (50%) 11.....2 out of (Kiss, Mathis, McConnell and Harper) are or very close to being "B1G" players from the start. We look a lot better offensively, but take a step back defensively. We see a lot of lineups with 1 traditional big man. We finish ranked in the 90 area in KenPom and lose a decent amount of games we are in for 35-37 minutes. There are major signs the program has turned the corner

BULL CASE 15% 14-15 wins.....We take major strides forward as the ball movement is very good. Chemistry is great and there is harmony between the newcomers and upperclassmen. Issa thrives and is a major factor on offense. 3 out of 4 of the newcomers are 25+ MPG players by choice. Our 3 attempts increase a ton and we shot an average amount of them and we hit 37% as a team. We take a small step back defensively. Carter and/or Myles Johnson outperform expectations (at least mine).
 
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Rutgers will win at least 12 games in the regular season. Opportunity for more is definitely there.

RRRRRRRR
 
FDU, Drexel, EMU, BU, @Fordham Columbia and Maine should all be non-conference wins 7-0
Is it possible we lose 1, yes, don't see it this year.

St. John's, @Miami, MSU, @Wisc., and @Seton Hall think they should go 2-3, possible for 1-4 or 3-2.
So 8-4 to 10-2.

The rest of 18 conference game, 9 home 9 road. Last year only 4 teams had winning road record UM, MSU, Purdue and OSU. The other 9 had ranging 1-4 wins with 7-9 losses. We were the only winless team on the road 0-9, but a few close losses.

H- Md, OSU, Northwestern, Nebraska, Indiana, UM, Iowa, Minnesota and PSU

R- Minnesota, Purdue, PSU, OSU, Ill., Northwestern, MSU, Iowa, Indiana.

I don't see why we can't go at least 5-4 or 6-3 at home since we were 3-6 last year and a better team this year, and win at least 1 if not 2 or 3 on the road. Put us between 6-12 to 9-9 so anywhere from 14-16 to 19-11 sounds reasonable. I'll go with 17-13 this year, but I wouldn't be surprised if it was better than that with all the shooters and scorers on the team.
 
Can Mathis and Kiss replace Sanders and Williams?
It will be Geo that replaces Corey and Mathis and Kiss combined give you 2 Mike Williams. Mike was hurt and not as effective as his junior year
 
It will be Geo that replaces Corey and Mathis and Kiss combined give you 2 Mike Williams. Mike was hurt and not as effective as his junior year

I know that Geo is being moved to PG, technically replacing Corey, what I was talking about was the > 50 minutes per game that Sanders and Williams played. Geo was already playing 30 minutes a game last year.
 
I know that Geo is being moved to PG, technically replacing Corey, what I was talking about was the > 50 minutes per game that Sanders and Williams played. Geo was already playing 30 minutes a game last year.
Williams was a shooting guard who couldn't shoot. Kiss and Mathis are upgrades IMO and Kiss and Mathis also seem like tough kids which is what Williams really brought that was a positive. Williams was a liability on offense. Couldn't shoot. Couldn't create his own shot or get to the basket. Didn't create for others. Everyone loved his toughness and effort but his offensive production was just bad
 
I went on a tweetstorm... reposting here. It's funny that I've been a bit of a brake-pumper around here (like in the NCAA tournament thread) because I do actually like this team. Anyway, this was inspired by a throwaway Rutgers take on a podcast.

I'm probably one of the most pessimistic sports fans when it comes to my own teams but I'm intrigued by this year's Rutgers basketball squad. Incoming tweetstorm that nobody asked for inspired by the Rutgers take from @BFQuinn and @umhoops on their (mostly very good!) podcast...

They made the point that Rutgers is what it is and will be the same until the end of time. Which is crazy because this is only year three for Steve Pikiell! This isn't Ernie Kent going into year six at Washington State.

Moreover, the roster has way more turnover this season. Corey Sanders, Mike Williams, and DeShawn Freeman combined to shoot 20% on 200 three-pointers. They did other stuff well that will be missed but you can't overstate how bad that is.

I don't see Pikiell as a newcomer miracle worker but it's worth noting that Geo Baker outplayed his recruiting ranking, and it's undeniable that Ron Harper, Myles Johnson bring skills that last year's team lacked, while Montez Mathis and Peter Kiss replace the lost athleticism.

The offense the past two seasons was painful to watch. But almost all of that personnel is gone. Baker and Issa Thiam both shot 37% from 3 last year. The new guys will be better shooters than the departed trio because *they were the worst 3-point trio in the country.*

They made another point: "Rutgers has to compete with Seton Hall." Which sounds rough, but they were basically just about even in the Big East. SHU made a good hire and had institutional support. Rutgers cycled through Fred Hill, Mike Rice, Eddie Jordan, and a circus of ADs.

Point is, Seton Hall being better than Rutgers was not handed down on stone tablets. Also Rutgers does have the #7 player in NJ committed for 2019 while "Seton Hall and the New York schools" don't have any, but that's mostly an aside.

The Mike Rice fiasco and the Eddie Jordan era buried the program to a degree few other programs have experienced, and the school lacked the history or fanbase to bounce back quickly. (Those factors also limit the program's ceiling, to be fair).

Anyway, we haven't seen what Pikiell can do with players who can actually shoot the ball. What we have seen is that he's found other ways to compete. With the worst personnel in the Big Ten, RU ranked 4th in OR% and 3rd in defensive TO%.

Basketball is a game of making shots (h/t @clubtrillion) so a team will never really be *good* if they're #347 at it. Even Cincinnati, the poster child of a good team without an offense, has at least cracked the top 200 the past four years.

So the fact that the coaching staff was able to identify areas where they could get an edge is encouraging, and I hope it continues with very different personnel. Certainly not a given, but if you're looking for a sign of life, there it is.

Last point: The 2007 Devil Rays finished 66-96, their 10th year (out of 10) with more than 90 losses. A directionless franchise had changed ownership and management in 2006 but the losses persisted. Except... the 2007 team wasn't THAT far away from being respectable.

They were above average in runs scored. Their starting pitchers ranked 17th in WAR and that was with Casey Fossum and Jae Seo making 10 starts apiece.

However, their bullpen was an abject disaster. It was the era before super-bullpens, but still: ONE GUY had a FIP under 4.00. They ranked comfortably last in bullpen WAR. Brian Stokes and Shawn Camp each had ERAs over 7.00 yet combined for over 100 IP.

And then... the team went 92-70 and went to the World Series the very next year. The offense was a little better and the young starting pitching took a step forward, but the real key was the bullpen moved from 30th... to 5th. That's what fixing a historically-awful flaw can do.

Basketball isn't baseball, and bullpens are a smaller part of the game than shooting. Rutgers isn't going to go from worst to first. But expecting "same old Rutgers" this season is going to turn out to be wrong. The team will look a LOT different, and I think for the better.

It's 100% possible that the new pieces are better shooters but not by enough to offset what they give back on the defensive side, and they go something like 11-19 (4-16). That'd be a letdown but it's very much in the range of outcomes.

If you look through my tweet history. you'll see I am never Mr. Blue Sky about my team's chances. It actually surprises me how many Rutgers fans have rosy outlooks in both FB and BB given that the last decade happened.

Maybe this changes once I see them actually take the court and play on Friday. Maybe they still can't throw a beach ball in the ocean, only this year they add more turnovers with a young roster. But right now? I like this team. Fin. @BFQuinn @umhoops
 
For every 1 Devil Rays team there are 40 teams that are in the basement and stay in the basement

Casey Fossum and Sean Camp?
 
I have updated my base case to 11 wins (which includes a win in 10/14 B1G game again)

BEAR CASE (35%) 9 wins.....Newcomers, as a whole, not ready to make an impact on Day1. Which means 25+ minutes for Issa and seeing 2 bigs on the floor almost exclusively. We have major trouble scoring and it bleeds to the defensive end. 1 injury to a core player makes depth even a bigger issue and guys not ready are being forced in to too many minutes

BASE CASE (50%) 11.....2 out of (Kiss, Mathis, McConnell and Harper) are or very close to being "B1G" players from the start. We look a lot better offensively, but take a step back defensively. We see a lot of lineups with 1 traditional big man. We finish ranked in the 90 area in KenPom and lose a decent amount of games we are in for 35-37 minutes. There are major signs the program has turned the corner

BULL CASE 15% 14-15 wins.....We take major strides forward as the ball movement is very good. Chemistry is great and there is harmony between the newcomers and upperclassmen. Issa thrives and is a major factor on offense. 3 out of 4 of the newcomers are 25+ MPG players by choice. Our 3 attempts increase a ton and we shot an average amount of them and we hit 37% as a team. We take a small step back defensively. Carter and/or Myles Johnson outperform expectations (at least mine).
Very reasonable post. I went with the high side of your base case because I'm an optimist . This team truly is young, so it's wise to temper expectations.
 
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For every 1 Devil Rays team there are 40 teams that are in the basement and stay in the basement

Casey Fossum and Sean Camp?

Not even close... I’m telling you right now, this team and teams to come from here on in are going straight up hill. Greene Rice - love most of your posts but you need to get on the train baby! This is going to be a great season and then sky rocket. Get on board, don’t be scared. Call me out at the end of the year if I’m wrong. I’m going for a 19-20 win season this year! Imagine 2019-20? 2020-21? I can!
 
Not even close... I’m telling you right now, this team and teams to come from here on in are going straight up hill. Greene Rice - love most of your posts but you need to get on the train baby! This is going to be a great season and then sky rocket. Get on board, don’t be scared. Call me out at the end of the year if I’m wrong. I’m going for a 19-20 win season this year! Imagine 2019-20? 2020-21? I can!

Honest questions, when you haven't seen 6 out of the eleven players on this team play and one of the players you have seen play is learning a new and important position, how can you predict 19-20 wins? Pikiell is a great coach and I think he's building something really special here, but I don't see it yet. This team is going to have to learn, grow and gel together. You're asking a team that graduated or lost to the pros 3 of its best players and are replacing them with new players--who haven't seen a Big Ten court before. What are you basing this on other than blind optimism?
 
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Honest questions, when you haven't seen 6 out of the eleven players on this team play and one of the players you have seen play is learning a new and important position, how can you predict 19-20 wins? Pikiell is a great coach and I think he's building something really special here, but I don't see it yet. This team is going to have to learn, grow and gel together. You're asking a team that graduated or lost to the pros 3 of its best players and are replacing them with new players--who haven't seen a Big Ten court before. What are you basing this on other than blind optimism?

I get that, I just like how this staff operates. Pike selects “types” of players he has in mind that will play as a “team” and for me, that’s paramount. I’m just feeling giddy about everything that’s going on around here, and I’ve been around a very long time. And I’m ready! We shall see but all I’m saying is that these guys will exceed early expectations. Blind optimism? Maybe, maybe not. We shall see...
 
I get that, I just like how this staff operates. Pike selects “types” of players he has in mind that will play as a “team” and for me, that’s paramount. I’m just feeling giddy about everything that’s going on around here, and I’ve been around a very long time. And I’m ready! We shall see but all I’m saying is that these guys will exceed early expectations. Blind optimism? Maybe, maybe not. We shall see...

I hope you're right. I just think we're at least a year away from really breaking through.
 
I hope you're right. I just think we're at least a year away from really breaking through.
I agree however, I truly think what sets us apart is the Coaching. This really is the difference in my opinion. In addition, we’re getting some exciting talent. This staff will succeed! I guess I could wait a year but I’d prefer not to :sunglasses:.
 
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I went on a tweetstorm... reposting here. It's funny that I've been a bit of a brake-pumper around here (like in the NCAA tournament thread) because I do actually like this team. Anyway, this was inspired by a throwaway Rutgers take on a podcast.

I'm probably one of the most pessimistic sports fans when it comes to my own teams but I'm intrigued by this year's Rutgers basketball squad. Incoming tweetstorm that nobody asked for inspired by the Rutgers take from @BFQuinn and @umhoops on their (mostly very good!) podcast...

They made the point that Rutgers is what it is and will be the same until the end of time. Which is crazy because this is only year three for Steve Pikiell! This isn't Ernie Kent going into year six at Washington State.

Moreover, the roster has way more turnover this season. Corey Sanders, Mike Williams, and DeShawn Freeman combined to shoot 20% on 200 three-pointers. They did other stuff well that will be missed but you can't overstate how bad that is.

I don't see Pikiell as a newcomer miracle worker but it's worth noting that Geo Baker outplayed his recruiting ranking, and it's undeniable that Ron Harper, Myles Johnson bring skills that last year's team lacked, while Montez Mathis and Peter Kiss replace the lost athleticism.

The offense the past two seasons was painful to watch. But almost all of that personnel is gone. Baker and Issa Thiam both shot 37% from 3 last year. The new guys will be better shooters than the departed trio because *they were the worst 3-point trio in the country.*

.....

The Mike Rice fiasco and the Eddie Jordan era buried the program to a degree few other programs have experienced, and the school lacked the history or fanbase to bounce back quickly. (Those factors also limit the program's ceiling, to be fair).

Anyway, we haven't seen what Pikiell can do with players who can actually shoot the ball. What we have seen is that he's found other ways to compete. With the worst personnel in the Big Ten, RU ranked 4th in OR% and 3rd in defensive TO%.

Basketball is a game of making shots (h/t @clubtrillion) so a team will never really be *good* if they're #347 at it. Even Cincinnati, the poster child of a good team without an offense, has at least cracked the top 200 the past four years.

So the fact that the coaching staff was able to identify areas where they could get an edge is encouraging, and I hope it continues with very different personnel. Certainly not a given, but if you're looking for a sign of life, there it is.

....

It's 100% possible that the new pieces are better shooters but not by enough to offset what they give back on the defensive side, and they go something like 11-19 (4-16). That'd be a letdown but it's very much in the range of outcomes.

If you look through my tweet history. you'll see I am never Mr. Blue Sky about my team's chances. It actually surprises me how many Rutgers fans have rosy outlooks in both FB and BB given that the last decade happened.

Maybe this changes once I see them actually take the court and play on Friday. Maybe they still can't throw a beach ball in the ocean, only this year they add more turnovers with a young roster. But right now? I like this team. Fin. @BFQuinn @umhoops

Really good post.

One thing I'll add. Coach P has "overachieved" both seasons he's been here. Past is prologue. I see a lot of folks pointing to three B1G wins last season. We beat Indiana, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois and Northwestern. I count more than three. And SHU. And played FSU (Elite 8) to the buzzer. And @ MSU to the buzzer. And Purdue (2x) to the buzzer. Including the B1G tournament Illinois and Minnesota had fewer B1G wins. Iowa and RU had 5. I thought last season was kind of solid.

Kenpom had us at #130 to finish last season. Not good, but the highest we've been since Rice's last season. The best Kenpom season we've had this decade is #78. Rice's first year/Mitchell's terrific Senior season. I think we could get there.
 
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