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Semi-OT: Population Shift in NJ to urban areas

NotInRHouse

NotInRHouse

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Oct 17, 2007
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Hudson, Bergen, Union and Middlesex County have gained significant population, while Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon and Monmouth have lost.

Not necessarily RU related, but goes back to my (heavily disputed) theory about population moving away from the exurbs. This is the latest data that bears that out.

After the boom drew up prices and people moved to Warren, Sussex, etc...the millenial children went to urban areas. They are not coming back. If and when the millenials move the burbs- and it won't be all of them- it will be to the "train towns" in places like Union and Bergen with good schools as well.

Monmouth strikes me as the odd man but I do know from my parents being there that the school population is decreasing in some parts and prices are not recovering in parts of the county.

You will also note that the counties in the rest of the tri-state with the most gains are Nassau, Westchester, and Fairfield- close to the city with the best schools and train access.

Exurban counties in NY and PA are also doing poorly.

link- (NJ.Com sorry)
 
That article ignores a few reasons for the office park vacancies, which are high NJ taxes (NJ hasn't been very business friendly) & M&A. Nonetheless, top companies like Google & Apple have massive campuses offering everything & no one, especially Millennials, wants to work in a crappy small office building that offers nothing else, so it's a mistake to move away from corporate campuses for some large companies.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
I wouldn't make too much of that aspect especially in NJ where pretty much every urban area aside from part of Jersey City hasn't done anything to attract business.

Union, Bergen, and Middlesex have plenty of office parks.

This has to do with where people want to live.

Plenty of the Silicon Valley office workers live in San Fran- so much so that there are buses for them. Just like I sit in traffic every morning with people from Hoboken and JC working in the burbs.

Once upon a time people my age moved to burbs. Not happening these days. NJ is well positioned with this, but it would be better positioned if a certain governor didn't treat public transportation like he treats higher ed.
 
Streetsblog has a bit on this as well.


Growth since 2010 has been concentrated in the core counties, accounting for 69 percent of the region's total population growth. The gains have been so strong, core counties have added about 30 percent as many people in the past three years as they lost in the 30 years after 1950.
The report says young adults between the ages of 20 and 29 are behind both of these trends. From 1970 to 1980, suburban counties captured 96 percent of the growth in this demographic. From 2010 to 2013, that figure dropped to 56 percent, with the urban core becoming increasingly competitive.

link
 
NIRH, it may well be the exurban parts of Monmouth that are seeing a decline. Monmouth has always been split between the "train towns" and beach towns east of 35, the older burbs (or older portions of burbs) between 35 and the Parkway and the farmland (now burbs and exurbs beyond the Parkway).

It would be interesting to see an intra-county comparison of population shifts within Monmouth County.

And I've heard a lot of millennial age people talking of buying or renting in Union County. Hadn't heard that in well neigh o'er a hundred years...well you get the drift. A long time. The post WWII folks are probably finally moving out and there are some good deals for smaller homes to be had in places like Tamaques Park area in Westfield, Clark, Union, Garwood, Fanwood, etc.
 
Originally posted by MidwestKnights:

Originally posted by Upstream:
Here is the original report: http://policy.rutgers.edu/reports/rrr/RRR37sept14.pdf

The authors attribute the decline in Monmouth County to effects from Superstorm Sandy.
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That makes sense. It would be interesting to see who's moving and what towns experienced the decline,
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It's not by me.

Are some towns a little slower to rebuild then others? Sure.

But I do not notice any changes (people leaving and not being replaced) from the the towns I have family in...from Lake Como all the way down to Brielle.
 
I think Union County is popular with millenials because of the train line, and the quaint, somewhat walkable towns it passes through.

I think in Monmouth, some of it is Sandy some of it is exurbs. The value of my parents' house (considered one of the best HS in the county) has not recovered compared to the train towns, Bergen and Hudson, etc. My parents are a good 15 minutes without traffic from the train, and over a mile walk to the bus. But many millenials are just not interested in that type of hike, no matter the schools- they'd rather the small house in Cranford or Westfield or Montclair.

The upswing down there right now is in Red Bank...the surrounding towns continue to have cache as well. Red Bank has a decent high school, the train, probably the most varied restaurant selection (though IMO Belmar is pretty underrated in that category).

The NYT recently did a piece on Wall, and realtors were saying that people were buying second homes in Wall versus, say Squan because the prices were much less. This is a phenomenon I think you will see more of- people will use a small house in a train town as a primary residence and then get a cheaper house for weekends in the shore area.
 
Originally posted by NotInRHouse:
I think Union County is popular with millenials because of the train line, and the quaint, somewhat walkable towns it passes through.

I think in Monmouth, some of it is Sandy some of it is exurbs. The value of my parents' house (considered one of the best HS in the county) has not recovered compared to the train towns, Bergen and Hudson, etc. My parents are a good 15 minutes without traffic from the train, and over a mile walk to the bus. But many millenials are just not interested in that type of hike, no matter the schools- they'd rather the small house in Cranford or Westfield or Montclair.

The upswing down there right now is in Red Bank...the surrounding towns continue to have cache as well. Red Bank has a decent high school, the train, probably the most varied restaurant selection (though IMO Belmar is pretty underrated in that category).

The NYT recently did a piece on Wall, and realtors were saying that people were buying second homes in Wall versus, say Squan because the prices were much less. This is a phenomenon I think you will see more of- people will use a small house in a train town as a primary residence and then get a cheaper house for weekends in the shore area.
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Where in Wall because that and Howell are the biggest towns (by land) in Monmouth County? So IMO it matters where....location, location, location.

And taxes are VERY high in Wall compared to Manasquan.

One of the nice things with regard to high schools in Monmouth County are the Vocational Academies . It is nice option if your child is into what each one (and smart enough to get in) is offering.

Red Bank Regional while not part of the MCVSD is the artsy/"Fame" one.
 
Originally posted by NotInRHouse:
I think Union County is popular with millenials because of the train line, and the quaint, somewhat walkable towns it passes through.

I think in Monmouth, some of it is Sandy some of it is exurbs. The value of my parents' house (considered one of the best HS in the county) has not recovered compared to the train towns, Bergen and Hudson, etc. My parents are a good 15 minutes without traffic from the train, and over a mile walk to the bus. But many millenials are just not interested in that type of hike, no matter the schools- they'd rather the small house in Cranford or Westfield or Montclair.

The upswing down there right now is in Red Bank...the surrounding towns continue to have cache as well. Red Bank has a decent high school, the train, probably the most varied restaurant selection (though IMO Belmar is pretty underrated in that category).

The NYT recently did a piece on Wall, and realtors were saying that people were buying second homes in Wall versus, say Squan because the prices were much less. This is a phenomenon I think you will see more of- people will use a small house in a train town as a primary residence and then get a cheaper house for weekends in the shore area.
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I wonder if its much simpler than generational preferences.


What if the difference is just price. Down where I used to work they built a nice new condo building with retail right on the metro line. Opened in 2007. Should be selling like hot cakes. But its not. Because now, with the real estate crash, you can afford to live in a similar place closer in. Its not exurban - its problem is that the surrounding neighborhood has nothing to offer and is kind of bad.

Alot of people move to the exurbs not because they are fleeing an urban/small town suburban life style, but basically drive to you qualify. Lower housing prices means you don't have to drive so far to qualify.
 
With respect to Monmouth you have Sandy plus the closure of Ft. Monmouth in 2012 which moved to Aberdeen MD taking it's 22,000 (Including contractors) jobs with it. Also the decline and loss of Lucent in recent years. Monmouth county used to be a great area for high paying tech jobs now that's gone.
 
Originally posted by RobertG:
With respect to Monmouth you have Sandy plus the closure of Ft. Monmouth in 2012 which moved to Aberdeen MD taking it's 22,000 (Including contractors) jobs with it. Also the decline and loss of Lucent in recent years. Monmouth county used to be a great area for high paying tech jobs now that's gone.
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It was that many? Wow.

I can see that but for the Shore while some might not have rebuilt number-wise by me, I don't see the change.
 
Yea it was that many, and this is what really bothered me about the whole thing. Those jobs were good solid middle class jobs: Engineers, Computer Scientists, technicians. But the politicians in the state let them go with very little fight and the guy with the most influence who did the least we elected governor: Corzine.
 
At least in NJ the urban/walkable areas are mostly a very, very significant markup on a comparative property in the suburbs. For the price of my 750 sqft condo, I could have bought a 3 bedroom townhouse near where I grew up in Monmouth County, perhaps even with a basement and garage, and my taxes would be less, and if I had kids, I could fit them and send them to public school without fear for their lives. I'm not the only person who made that trade.

In that area there is a kinda-sorta 24 hour bus...and I do notice that those condos and townhomes nearby sell for a premium, but not even close to what they would cost in even Morristown or Red Bank.
 
Originally posted by e5fdny:
Originally posted by NotInRHouse:
I think Union County is popular with millenials because of the train line, and the quaint, somewhat walkable towns it passes through.

I think in Monmouth, some of it is Sandy some of it is exurbs. The value of my parents' house (considered one of the best HS in the county) has not recovered compared to the train towns, Bergen and Hudson, etc. My parents are a good 15 minutes without traffic from the train, and over a mile walk to the bus. But many millenials are just not interested in that type of hike, no matter the schools- they'd rather the small house in Cranford or Westfield or Montclair.

The upswing down there right now is in Red Bank...the surrounding towns continue to have cache as well. Red Bank has a decent high school, the train, probably the most varied restaurant selection (though IMO Belmar is pretty underrated in that category).

The NYT recently did a piece on Wall, and realtors were saying that people were buying second homes in Wall versus, say Squan because the prices were much less. This is a phenomenon I think you will see more of- people will use a small house in a train town as a primary residence and then get a cheaper house for weekends in the shore area.
Click to expand...
Where in Wall because that and Howell are the biggest towns (by land) in Monmouth County? So IMO it matters where....location, location, location.

And taxes are VERY high in Wall compared to Manasquan.

One of the nice things with regard to high schools in Monmouth County are the Vocational Academies . It is nice option if your child is into what each one (and smart enough to get in) is offering.

Red Bank Regional while not part of the MCVSD is the artsy/"Fame" one.
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It did not say but I would guess close to 35 otherwise what's the point?
 
Originally posted by Jim_from_RU:
Good. Keep the people off what's left of our farmland and open space.

Posted from Rivals Mobile
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Great point!

But still, this is a small recent trend and will be a temporary one. Living in a city/urban area is the in thing for the younger generation, but NJ cities are still dirty and dangerous. This demo may put up with such negatives to be hip and cool for now, but once they start having children, they are heading right back to the safety and security of the burbs (and their superior school systems).
 
Originally posted by T2Kplus10:
Originally posted by Jim_from_RU:
Good. Keep the people off what's left of our farmland and open space.

Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
Great point!

But still, this is a small recent trend and will be a temporary one. Living in a city/urban area is the in thing for the younger generation, but NJ cities are still dirty and dangerous. This demo may put up with such negatives to be hip and cool for now, but once they start having children, they are heading right back to the safety and security of the burbs (and their superior school systems).f
Click to expand...
While I agree about NJ cities (with a few exceptions), the movement to - and investment in - American cities (especially larger ones w/ a good job base and/or great quality of life) is actually pretty substantial and sustained. It is not just about being "hip and cool"; it's about being close to amenities and enjoying a certain kind of lifestyle. This "trend" began before the millenials and doesn't just pertain to young people. Of course, many urban millennials will move back to the suburbs - but there are more of them to begin with and they probably won't move back at the same rate as other generations because their chosen cities have become more compelling places than they were in previous decades. Plus, long-term demographic shifts - e.g., a massive increase in % of households without children - bode well for urban growth. There might be some setbacks, but there are several factors that suggest a positive cycle whereby urban growth and reinvestment continues among the cities that are already experiencing this.
 
Originally posted by T2Kplus10:
Originally posted by Jim_from_RU:
Good. Keep the people off what's left of our farmland and open space.

Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
Great point!

But still, this is a small recent trend and will be a temporary one. Living in a city/urban area is the in thing for the younger generation, but NJ cities are still dirty and dangerous. This demo may put up with such negatives to be hip and cool for now, but once they start having children, they are heading right back to the safety and security of the burbs (and their superior school systems).
Click to expand...
It is not necessarily the cities that are seeing the growth in the central core. For example, growth in Passaic County is not being driven by Paterson City (which continues to lose population). The growth is in towns like Wayne or Clifton or Woodland Park.
 
Originally posted by Upstream:

Originally posted by T2Kplus10:
Originally posted by Jim_from_RU:
Good. Keep the people off what's left of our farmland and open space.

Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
Great point!

But still, this is a small recent trend and will be a temporary one. Living in a city/urban area is the in thing for the younger generation, but NJ cities are still dirty and dangerous. This demo may put up with such negatives to be hip and cool for now, but once they start having children, they are heading right back to the safety and security of the burbs (and their superior school systems).
Click to expand...
It is not necessarily the cities that are seeing the growth in the central core. For example, growth in Passaic County is not being driven by Paterson City (which continues to lose population). The growth is in towns like Wayne or Clifton or Woodland Park.
Click to expand...
This is a key point. Towns are growing, and towns without downtowns are getting them built.
 
Originally posted by derleider:

Originally posted by Upstream:

Originally posted by T2Kplus10:
Originally posted by Jim_from_RU:
Good. Keep the people off what's left of our farmland and open space.

Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
Great point!

But still, this is a small recent trend and will be a temporary one. Living in a city/urban area is the in thing for the younger generation, but NJ cities are still dirty and dangerous. This demo may put up with such negatives to be hip and cool for now, but once they start having children, they are heading right back to the safety and security of the burbs (and their superior school systems).
Click to expand...
It is not necessarily the cities that are seeing the growth in the central core. For example, growth in Passaic County is not being driven by Paterson City (which continues to lose population). The growth is in towns like Wayne or Clifton or Woodland Park.
Click to expand...
This is a key point. Towns are growing, and towns without downtowns are getting them built.
Click to expand...
And that is what is really happening in NJ. Housing in the urban core has become more affordable allowing for shorter commutes, and the trend is toward walkable towns and close amenities and less of a desire for McMansions on 2 acres. That favors the more densely populated areas of the state, versus the rural outer ring.

But with the exception of Hudson County (which is more like an outer borough to Manhattan) the growth in NJ is not happening in the cities. Newark, Paterson, Trenton, Camden are not seeing the growth that exists in the suburban towns in surrounding areas.

(And despite NIRH's claim, there is nothing in the Rutgers study that suggests that any of the core growth is driven by rail access. There are not enough people who live in NJ, outside Hudson and Bergen counties, who commute to NYC for rail access to NYC to make a difference. There are not enough people who commute by rail to other locations to make a difference.)
 
Originally posted by Upstream:


Originally posted by T2Kplus10:

Originally posted by Jim_from_RU:
Good. Keep the people off what's left of our farmland and open space.


Posted from Rivals Mobile
Click to expand...
Great point!

But still, this is a small recent trend and will be a temporary one. Living in a city/urban area is the in thing for the younger generation, but NJ cities are still dirty and dangerous. This demo may put up with such negatives to be hip and cool for now, but once they start having children, they are heading right back to the safety and security of the burbs (and their superior school systems).
Click to expand...
It is not necessarily the cities that are seeing the growth in the central core. For example, growth in Passaic County is not being driven by Paterson City (which continues to lose population). The growth is in towns like Wayne or Clifton or Woodland Park.
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True, but towns like Wayne, Clifton, and WP are still way more suburb than urban.
 
I always thought the option for NJ was to keep the super base of Dix, McGuire, Lakehurst or keep Ft Monmouth but there was no way to keep both.


RobertG- the information I recall is that Ft Monmouth job loss was under 6,000.

This link says 6,000 government plus 4,000 private

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Monmouth

Here is a link that says the super base has 44,000 people living and working on the base

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Base_McGuire%E2%80%93Dix%E2%80%93Lakehurst



This post was edited on 10/8 7:32 PM by brianoc


This post was edited on 10/8 7:34 PM by brianoc

This post was edited on 10/8 7:36 PM by brianoc
 
The counties with the most growth are the ones with the most rail access. Sussex has none and I think Warren has one station. Hudson and Bergen had the most growth and the best train/PT access. And Union and Middlesex are definitely the best after that- certainly the fastest to the city outside a small part of Essex.

Also, there are less people getting married and having children so there is minimal need to move to the suburbs.

The idea that NJ's cities are "bad" is outdated. Newark, Camden, Paterson, Plainfield, OK. But much of almost-all urban Hudson County is safer, more expensive, and more sought after than it was 10-15 years ago. Then you have smaller cities like New Brunswick (still some bad to be sure- as there would be in any city), Montclair, Morristown, Red Bank...

Eventually, the Ironbound is going to be getting more people that can't afford Jersey City. It's already getting a few. A place like Camden is so bad you have to wonder if it ever changes, but you also to have remember that Philadelphia is affordable comparatively even in its heavily gentrified and trendy areas which changes the dynamic.

How many people these days who can afford to own their first home seek out the towns in NJ that have no train nor excellent schools? There may be population growth but it's probably people without such great choices.
 
You are forgetting to add Trenton to the bad category. So honestly, other than a portion of Jersey City (and a small portion) all NJ cities are dumps and haven't shown any improvement.
 
Originally posted by brianoc:

I agree- all of the cities except for a limited section of JC have gone seriously down hill since the 80's
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I doubt statistics back you up on that at all. The 80s was the nadir for cities in almost every respect.
 
Trenton is bad but again when you look at many of the urban areas you see a change.

There are plenty of bad urban areas throughout America that remain bad or gotten worse, but still the trend is overall towards more urban living.
 
der- statistics may not back me up but I manage staff that have been working in everyone of these cities since the 1980's and our common opinion (no matter our political view) is that things are worse than they have ever been.

We used to go solo into these cities that is never done now. When we used to need the police they were always available to assist us. Now we can not ask the city police when we need a police presence in the cities we arrange to bring the State police
 
The only city I can speak for is New Brunswick and New Brunswick is 10 Times better than it was in the 80s and 90s. Hard to imagine Newark worse than the decade of crack and car-jackings. I'm frequently in Jersey city and as a whole, it has improved, individual neighborhoods may counterbalance improvements tho
 
Camden is probably worse. Newark is probably worse in parts. In the 80s you didn't have the area around the Rock which is an improvement but by no means great.

But again- this isn't the point. Look at LA and Chicago, both have areas with tremendous growth, increasing income and development, and places that have weekly murders. That doesn't take away from the overall trend.

And if you asked the average person under 35 from NJ the first cities they think of in NJ are not Paterson or Trenton or probably even Camden or Newark. They probably all have spent some time in at least one of NB, JC, Hoboken or Morristown, if not all of them and frequently. That is what is shaping them.

I absolutely agree that it has not made a difference for those older and many of them will move to gated places in the burbs like their parents but I do think those will be increasingly closer to the urban core to stay close to future grandchildren. The days of building hundreds of retirement communities in a place like Ocean County are long over and for all the hemming and hawing about cities, there is a huge heroin epidemic down there.
 
Originally posted by derleider:

It is not necessarily the cities that are seeing the growth in the central core. For example, growth in Passaic County is not being driven by Paterson City (which continues to lose population). The growth is in towns like Wayne or Clifton or Woodland Park.
Click to expand...
This is a key point. Towns are growing, and towns without downtowns are getting them built.
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The density in Northern NJ is such that a lot of the towns are basically small urban centers. NJ is kind of a strange case in that a lot of it is as dense as a lot of the cities you find out West.
 
That's certainly true. Parts of LA and Houston make a place like Montclair or Westfield look like Midtown Manhattan.
 
Originally posted by NotInRHouse:
At least in NJ the urban/walkable areas are mostly a very, very significant markup on a comparative property in the suburbs. For the price of my 750 sqft condo, I could have bought a 3 bedroom townhouse near where I grew up in Monmouth County, perhaps even with a basement and garage, and my taxes would be less, and if I had kids, I could fit them and send them to public school without fear for their lives. I'm not the only person who made that trade.

In that area there is a kinda-sorta 24 hour bus...and I do notice that those condos and townhomes nearby sell for a premium, but not even close to what they would cost in even Morristown or Red Bank.
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That's an easy trade for you -- you're single. I wonder if you'll still want your 750 square foot condo when you have kids. This is why I think a lot of the millenials' choices are not long-term.
 
That's true, but we probably won't know that for years...as a general proposition though, I think millenials are OK with less space but getting more conveniences. But years ago, it wouldn't have been safe to live in many areas where people want to move these days in Hudson County or Brooklyn, and those people ended up in the burbs from after college and are still there. When my parents got married, first place they lived was Staten Island, after growing up in Brooklyn...at that time that was a rare place to live in NYC that wasn't making you take your life in your hands. Today, I doubt very many Brooklynites dream of marrying and leaving unless they're moving to a place like Maplewood...which the NYT deemed Brooklyn West yesterday.
 
We won't know for years. One thing we need, as you have emphasized, is for public education in places like Brooklyn to become *much* better than it is today. Otherwise, millenials (who after all are going to be parents, as hard as that may be to visualize right now) will move to the 'burbs as soon as their children reach school age. And improving public education would be a massive effort that not even millenials can accomplish alone -- there are just so many problems.

But even that's not enough. City apartments are small; will people who are not filthy rich be willing to tolerate trying to raise kids there? As you say, we won't know for years.
 
Camden,

I have a kid, am in my 40s, and live in 1,200 sq feet in Jersey City. I could afford 4x this space in the suburbs nearby, but I don't want it and the commute that goes with it.

The grade schools here are overflowing with kids of people who are staying. Sure some people move out, but the numbers staying are significant.
Posted from Rivals Mobile
 
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