Shot Distribution “Moneyball”

[BillyC80]

If Pike is going back to a defense-first approach, where we win low-scoring games, then that makes each offensive possession more valuable.

IMO he needs to do a better job of demanding only certain types of shots for each player, to maximize our efficiency and “Moneyball” our way to more wins.

For example, I looked back at the last year we were a legit NCAA bubble team, and I was horrified to see that Cliff took 22 threes that season (he made 4, for 18%)!

In fact, his eFG for the year was a paltry 51% (by comparison Ogbole’s was 58% this season). He not only took too many treys, he took too many 2-pointers that were not dunks or put-backs.

Contrast that to this year when Cliff’s eFG was a whopping 73% with Alabama, and he only took (and missed) 1 three. Clearly, his coaches demanded he play within himself and focus on rebounding, dunks, put-backs and rim protection.

This is not an indictment of Cliff, but rather a criticism of Pike. We had Cam on that bubble team, who made 46% of his treys. Could we have won 1 more game and made the tournament if Cam took all of Cliff’s 22 threes that year?

Just food for thought.

 

[Unionst]

It wasn’t the threes so much. It was all the wasted post ups where we ran the offense through Cliff even though he had no post game at all. I’m sure Pike saw this as a trade off for keeping him happy and continuing the premise that he had NBA talent.

 

[Atlasxal]

It wasn’t the threes so much. It was all the wasted post ups where we ran the offense through Cliff even though he had no post game at all. I’m sure Pike saw this as a trade off for keeping him happy and continuing the premise that he had NBA talent.

That and the very poor two-point shooting (outside of dunks) as BillyC mentioned.

 

[Groz]

If Pike is going back to a defense-first approach, where we win low-scoring games, then that makes each offensive possession more valuable.

IMO he needs to do a better job of demanding only certain types of shots for each player, to maximize our efficiency and “Moneyball” our way to more wins.

For example, I looked back at the last year we were a legit NCAA bubble team, and I was horrified to see that Cliff took 22 threes that season (he made 4, for 18%)!

In fact, his eFG for the year was a paltry 51% (by comparison Ogbole’s was 58% this season). He not only took too many treys, he took too many 2-pointers that were not dunks or put-backs.

Contrast that to this year when Cliff’s eFG was a whopping 73% with Alabama, and he only took (and missed) 1 three. Clearly, his coaches demanded he play within himself and focus on rebounding, dunks, put-backs and rim protection.

This is not an indictment of Cliff, but rather a criticism of Pike. We had Cam on that bubble team, who made 46% of his treys. Could we have won 1 more game and made the tournament if Cam took all of Cliff’s 22 threes that year?

Just food for thought.

22 threes in a year is not even 1 per game. Not a big factor at all.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[Atlasxal]

If Pike is going back to a defense-first approach, where we win low-scoring games, then that makes each offensive possession more valuable.

IMO he needs to do a better job of demanding only certain types of shots for each player, to maximize our efficiency and “Moneyball” our way to more wins.

For example, I looked back at the last year we were a legit NCAA bubble team, and I was horrified to see that Cliff took 22 threes that season (he made 4, for 18%)!

In fact, his eFG for the year was a paltry 51% (by comparison Ogbole’s was 58% this season). He not only took too many treys, he took too many 2-pointers that were not dunks or put-backs.

Contrast that to this year when Cliff’s eFG was a whopping 73% with Alabama, and he only took (and missed) 1 three. Clearly, his coaches demanded he play within himself and focus on rebounding, dunks, put-backs and rim protection.

This is not an indictment of Cliff, but rather a criticism of Pike. We had Cam on that bubble team, who made 46% of his treys. Could we have won 1 more game and made the tournament if Cam took all of Cliff’s 22 threes that year?

Just food for thought.

Agree wholeheartedly. Our team’s shot selection has to be more strategic and players have to be held accountable for inefficient shot selection. The margin between winning and losing is small especially in low scoring games. Also less wasted dribbling resulting in forced shots to beat the shot clock. JWill was one player who was guilty of too much wasted dribbling.

 

[RCBeta79]

Are you suggesting Rutgers adopt a Hickory High strategy on offense and defense?
Hickory Ball.

 

[BillyC80]

22 threes in a year is not even 1 per game. Not a big factor at all.

Best of Luck,
Groz

In general I agree, but not from a center who isn’t a good shooter AT ALL (from any distance beyond a layup or dunk).

We lost at least 2 games that year by less than 3 points where Cliff took a three and missed.

Sure, someone else could have missed those same shots, and others, but you want your best big man hunting ORebs on misses instead of shooting them.

 

[Groz]

If Pike is going back to a defense-first approach, where we win low-scoring games, then that makes each offensive possession more valuable.

IMO he needs to do a better job of demanding only certain types of shots for each player, to maximize our efficiency and “Moneyball” our way to more wins.

For example, I looked back at the last year we were a legit NCAA bubble team, and I was horrified to see that Cliff took 22 threes that season (he made 4, for 18%)!

In fact, his eFG for the year was a paltry 51% (by comparison Ogbole’s was 58% this season). He not only took too many treys, he took too many 2-pointers that were not dunks or put-backs.

Contrast that to this year when Cliff’s eFG was a whopping 73% with Alabama, and he only took (and missed) 1 three. Clearly, his coaches demanded he play within himself and focus on rebounding, dunks, put-backs and rim protection.

This is not an indictment of Cliff, but rather a criticism of Pike. We had Cam on that bubble team, who made 46% of his treys. Could we have won 1 more game and made the tournament if Cam took all of Cliff’s 22 threes that year?

Just food for thought.

I do agree we need "moneyball" strategy in taking better shots. Alabama wants either a 3 pointer or basically a layup. Nate Oats will bench a player if he takes a shot just inside of the 3 point line.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[BillyC80]

Are you suggesting Rutgers adopt a Hickory High strategy on offense and defense?
Hickory Ball.

Only if we run the picket fence on ‘em.

 

[RUChow]

If Pike is going back to a defense-first approach, where we win low-scoring games, then that makes each offensive possession more valuable.

IMO he needs to do a better job of demanding only certain types of shots for each player, to maximize our efficiency and “Moneyball” our way to more wins.

For example, I looked back at the last year we were a legit NCAA bubble team, and I was horrified to see that Cliff took 22 threes that season (he made 4, for 18%)!

In fact, his eFG for the year was a paltry 51% (by comparison Ogbole’s was 58% this season). He not only took too many treys, he took too many 2-pointers that were not dunks or put-backs.

Contrast that to this year when Cliff’s eFG was a whopping 73% with Alabama, and he only took (and missed) 1 three. Clearly, his coaches demanded he play within himself and focus on rebounding, dunks, put-backs and rim protection.

This is not an indictment of Cliff, but rather a criticism of Pike. We had Cam on that bubble team, who made 46% of his treys. Could we have won 1 more game and made the tournament if Cam took all of Cliff’s 22 threes that year?

Just food for thought.

He's never used his offensive talent well. Everyone knows that, and its not likely to change.

 

[FerrisBuellerrrrr]

Pike is a very nice and positive, perhaps too much. Many players have been allowed well outside their comfort zone over the years. Caleb outside shooting, JWill at the end of the game when you need a basket (twice in 2025 B10 loss), and GG forcing up rushed/long three pointers when we knew they were low %. Some optimism is required, but too much can lead to losses and discontent from teammates.

 

[Mholinko]

I do agree we need "moneyball" strategy in taking better shots. Alabama wants either a 3 pointer or basically a layup. Nate Oats will bench a player if he takes a shot just inside of the 3 point line.

Best of Luck,
Groz

The key to playing that way as much as people may not like it is to have excellent ball movement and spacing which requires offensive knowledge which Rutgers staff hasn’t shown much of

You can critique that style of offense but you can’t run an offense like that without having sets and principles that require your players constantly be moving looking for one of those shots and also be willing to give up the ball if the lane isn’t open or you’re not open on the outside

 

[LotusAggressor]

The key to playing that way as much as people may not like it is to have excellent ball movement and spacing which requires offensive knowledge which Rutgers staff hasn’t shown much of

You can critique that style of offense but you can’t run an offense like that without having sets and principles that require your players constantly be moving looking for one of those shots and also be willing to give up the ball if the lane isn’t open or you’re not open on the outside

It also requires multiple players who are accurate 3 point shooters and can get to the basket and finish.