Still confident in a full RU Stadium given NJ's high vaccination rates/low case rates and sources; Update: RU announces 100% capacity for football

RU848789

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This is intended to be about Rutgers football, even though there's a fair amount of COVID content to justify why we should have a full RU stadium w/o restrictions, so hopefully it can remain here. Anyway, I've been saying we'd have a full Rutgers Stadium this fall, since at least January, once it became clear we'd have enough vaccines for everyone by about April and would likely start getting close to herd immunity and very low case rates by June. We're there now. In NJ, we have 63% of the population vaccinated (at least one dose), which translates to about 75% of adults vaccinated (at least one dose) and today, Governor Cuomo (and California's Gov Newsom) announced that they're dropping most COVID restrictions in NY, including all restrictions (such as masks or proof of vaccination) on outdoor sporting, entertainment and other events, based on 70% of adults in NY being vaccinated, and I'm sure Murphy wil be doing the same any day now, especially since we have almost 75% of our adults vaccinated (at least one dose) in NJ, and I assume Holloway will follow that up with an announcement of a full Rutgers Stadium (and tailgating) without restrictions. Getting very excited for the season and really hoping we can get to 6 wins and a bowl.

https://www.newyorkupstate.com/coro...vid-rules-mean-for-concerts-sports-shows.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/15/nyregion/coronavirus-restrictions.html

Also, note that "herd immunity," the point at which transmissions would slow to a trickle and eventually stop, has been estimated to be in the range of 70-80% of the population having immunity (from vaccines or past infections) and we're likely around 75-78% of people in NJ who are immune at this point. That comes from the 63% of New Jerseyans who are immune from being vaccinated, combined with another 12-15% of New Jerseyans, who are immune from having had COVID and who were also not vaccinated. This assumes about 1/3 of the 35-45% of the population (or 12-15% of those from NJ), who have already been infected with COVID, have not been vaccinated (similar to the 1/3 of the population who haven't been vaccinated), which means another 12-15% of New Jerseyans are immune, which would bring us to about 75-78% "immune" from either vaccination or infection, which is pretty close to herd immunity.

In addition, both NY and NJ are now officially below the equivalent to 10,000 US cases per day threshold Fauci said would be reasonable to "get back to normal" - this translates to 270 cases/day for NJ (8.9MM vs. 330MM in the US) and about 625 cases/day for NY. NJ's 7-day moving average of cases is now at about 240-260/day and has been below 270/day for almost 2 weeks, while NY's is now at about 625 cases/day, which is right at that threshold. Lifting most restrictions in NY and NJ (and other states with high vaccination rates/low case rates) makes sense at this time with very low cases and fairly high vaccination rates, which will hopefully keep increasing until we get over 80% of adults and those from 12-15 vaccinated, which is doable if enough people believe the science, especially on the incredible safety and efficacy of these vaccines, as per a recent article - and if anyone doubts the science, just look at the link below which notes that 96% of practicing doctors have been vaccinated.

https://www.medpagetoday.com/specia...2&utm_term=NL_Daily_DHE_dual-gmail-definition

https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucej...4973590318&utm_campaign=sprinklrForbesScience

Given that we're at 75% of adults vaccinated in NJ, I'd think we're likely going to stay at a very low case level (barring some new variant that eludes the vaccines - unlikely, but possible, which is why we need everyone on the planet vaccinated), and if we maintain very low case levels, I would hope the RAC is fully filled without restrictions come November. We'll see, as large, densely opulated indoor events will be the last places to have mask or vaccination restrictions lifted. As an aside, I think other states, some of which only have 35-45% of their populations vaccinated, are far more likely to still keep experiencing case surges (not like this past winter, but well above the 10,000 cases/day threshold equivalent), which might make it difficult for the US to achieve the overall <10,000 cases/day target, even if many individual states do get there.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-jersey/

If anyone is interested, here are my posts from awhile back on some of these points/topics.

1/28/21 post on likely full stadiums: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/ot-vaccine.209080/post-4909220

3/2/21 post on RU "preparing for a normal season": https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/alabama-set-to-play-in-full-stadium.213005/post-4991115

4/16/21 post on Fauci's thresholds and when they'd likely be achieved: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...ic-for-returning-to-normal-from-fauci.216340/

5/10/21 post on high RU Admin source and full stadiums: https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/threads/spring-game-ticket-email-has-been-sent.217521/post-5107075
 

RU848789

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Still worried about Holloway and his "Campus Guidance". Especially re. tailgating.
I am not, based on his statements in the podcast in early March, where he was clear about waiting until June to see where we would be with vaccinations, case rates, etc. Well we're now in mid-June and outdoor restrictions have been lifted in most places, including NJ, so I have every reason to expect Holloway to follow suit. I liked his leadership on COVID up until his decision on graduation, but that's a fairly minor point, IMO. However, if he fails to follow what NJ policy is and we're restricted in any way for tailgating or games in RU stadium, I'll be grabbing a pitchfork...

I think Holloway made a bad decision about graduation that he felt he couldn't back down from, but we've covered the podcast before. With regard to the podcast, he never definitively said what you're saying he said - he said those were possible outcomes depending on the data and trajectory of the pandemic. If one actually listens to that podcast from early March, people need to listen more closely to what Holloway said in the beginning when he says, "I'll be better able to answer these questions (about fans in stands) by June" and then went on to say what I would expect him to say, which was, "it's all about the vaccine rollout and vaccine takeup, frankly." And that's going pertty damn well, especially in NJ, as we're getting close to 270 cases/day (equivalent to Fauci's 10,000 cases/day target for the US for "returning to normal"), so I'm pretty sure we'll have a full RU stadiuim without restrictions.
 
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Knight Shift

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They'll find something else to complain about regarding Holloway. Actually just watched that little video, which was pretty cool, including a nice intro from Schiano.
Schiano: "Can't wait to unleash our crowd on the B1G."




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RU848789

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I am not, based on his statements in the podcast in early March, where he was clear about waiting until June to see where we would be with vaccinations, case rates, etc. Well we're now in mid-June and outdoor restrictions have been lifted in most places, including NJ, so I have every reason to expect Holloway to follow suit. I liked his leadership on COVID up until his decision on graduation, but that's a fairly minor point, IMO. However, if he fails to follow what NJ policy is and we're restricted in any way for tailgating or games in RU stadium, I'll be grabbing a pitchfork...
And the full press release did say that it’s based on the State’s updated guidance on outdoor events and that guidance explicitly states that there are zero restrictions on outdoor events in NJ, plus it said, "The Marching Scarlet Knights, the Scarlet Walk and tailgating are all long-held traditions in Piscataway that were sidelined in 2020 due to the pandemic that fans can look forward to enjoying again."

So, as the song says, “see you…in September.” Can I get a woohoo??!!

https://scarletknights.com/news/2021/6/16/football-returns-to-full-capacity-at-shi-stadium.aspx
 

RUhasarrived

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Will they drop their plan for all electronic ticketing?Or have paper tickets become a convenient casualty?
 

RUaMoose

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Doubt you'll see big crowds. Maybe 25-30k best case. Just don't see the casual fan running out to catch a RU game live anytime soon. Obviously ppl on this board aren't casual fans.
 
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Zak57

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And the full press release did say that it’s based on the State’s updated guidance on outdoor events and that guidance explicitly states that there are zero restrictions on outdoor events in NJ, plus it said, "The Marching Scarlet Knights, the Scarlet Walk and tailgating are all long-held traditions in Piscataway that were sidelined in 2020 due to the pandemic that fans can look forward to enjoying again."

So, as the song says, “see you…in September.” Can I get a woohoo??!!

https://scarletknights.com/news/2021/6/16/football-returns-to-full-capacity-at-shi-stadium.aspx

Very close family friend is the guitarist for the current Happenings for past 30 years. Only one original member left.
 
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RU848789

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Doubt you'll see big crowds. Maybe 25-30k best case. Just don't see the casual fan running out to catch a RU game live anytime soon. Obviously ppl on this board aren't casual fans.
Really? I think we'll be very close to a sellout for Temple. it will be an event, given no fans last year and all the positive energy around Schiano, the team, and the program.
 

NickKnight 1

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A little side note on the vaccine. yesterday .my
wife and daughter saw a sign at shop rite Get
vaccine here. they asked when and how, they
said here and now. So they did the paper work and did the shot right there and then. and scheduled the second one.
 
Dec 22, 2016
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A little side note on the vaccine. yesterday .my
wife and daughter saw a sign at shop rite Get
vaccine here. they asked when and how, they
said here and now. So they did the paper work and did the shot right there and then. and scheduled the second one.
How sad.
 

rutgersdave

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Really? I think we'll be very close to a sellout for Temple. it will be an event, given no fans last year and all the positive energy around Schiano, the team, and the program.
I think he meant he hoping no one shows up. Moose always coming to this board with negative vibes. He should be banned from this board.
 
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mildone

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I think he meant he hoping no one shows up. Moose always coming to this board with negative vibes. He should be banned from this board.
If the mods banned people from the FB board for negativity, there'd be like 5 people here who post regularly, and hundreds who rarely, if ever, post. Everybody else would have to be banned.

Think about it. Negativity in sports forums is rarely in short supply.
 

RU848789

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I think he meant he hoping no one shows up. Moose always coming to this board with negative vibes. He should be banned from this board.
Moose is an odd duck, but I assume he genuinely thinks attendance will be light for the opener. Sounds like a good poll thread...
 

Wolv RU

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They'll find something else to complain about regarding Holloway. Actually just watched that little video, which was pretty cool, including a nice intro from Schiano.

Let's keep the praise on Holloway in perspective here. This is the same guy that just had no graduation, and also the same one that was highly supportive of cancelling Big Ten football last fall, which same approach led to other ridiculous policies like having no Big Ten baseball tournament.

It would be pretty reasonable to conclude that the reason there will be fans this fall is because doing otherwise would be so completely out of the norm that Holloway would be sticking his neck too far out to do so.
 

NotInRHouse

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Thanks again President Holloway.

It's interesting to see two threads on this and not one apology for the baseless smears insisting fans would be banned this fall.
 

RU848789

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Let's keep the praise on Holloway in perspective here. This is the same guy that just had no graduation, and also the same one that was highly supportive of cancelling Big Ten football last fall, which same approach led to other ridiculous policies like having no Big Ten baseball tournament.

It would be pretty reasonable to conclude that the reason there will be fans this fall is because doing otherwise would be so completely out of the norm that Holloway would be sticking his neck too far out to do so.
I criticized his efforts on graduation above, but I thought his leadership through most of COVID was strong and thought delaying/cancelling last season was the right decision at the time and thought it was also the right decision to reverse that stance once daily COVID testing became available to give teams a chance of not having major team/staff outbreaks.

And I have zero issue, as I've said, with his handling of this coming season. He never said we weren't going to have full stadiums in that March podcast - he just outlined the issues involved that would affect what would be decided in June. And now, having the data in hand that we're doing great with vaccinations and cases, the decision to have unrestricted football games/tailgates is scientifically sound.
 
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