The Legend of Saint Greg

[sherrane]

Greg Schiano was the right hire 19 years ago. He built Rutgers' a solid foundation in football which was needed to weather the oncoming conference expansion storm and help get RU into the B1G. Temple is the only original BCS team that is not in a Power 5 conference. Without Schiano, it is possible Rutgers would have suffered the same fate as Temple.

After Miami and Virginia Tech left the Big East, the conference was not as competitive as the other BCS conferences, with the possible exception of the ACC. After 2009 (the last time the conference finished the season with three ranked teams), the conference was not much stronger than the American Athletic Conference is today. I reviewed the past schedules and results to gauge how RU performed under Schiano against top teams in an attempt to determine expected performance in the toughest division in college football.

Rutgers with Schiano (2006 -- 2011)
I this section I will document the performance of Rutgers in the six seasons from 2006 and 2011 and the competitiveness of the schedule.

Overall record: 49-28 (.636)
Record vs Winning Teams: 19-22 (.463)
Record vs Teams .500 or Worse: 23-6 (.793)
Record vs FCS Teams: 7-0 (1.000)

Current Power 5 teams played (Years Played, Combined Record during those years):
West Virginia (2006 – 2011, 59-19 .756)
Pitt (2006 – 2011, 44-32 .579)
Louisville (2006 – 2011, 41-34 .547)
Syracuse (2006 – 2011, 26-47 .356)
North Carolina (2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 26-25 .510)
Maryland (2007, 2009, 9-16 .360)
Kansas State (2006, 7-6 .538)
North Carolina State (2008, 6-7 .462)
Iowa State (2011, 6-7 .462)
Illinois (2006, 3-9 .250)
------------------------------------
Cumulative Record: 227-202 .529
B1G Cumulative Record for 2017 and 2018: 200-157 .560

Record against current Power 5 teams: 17-17
Record of opponents in 17 wins: 87-123 (.414)
Record of the opponents in the 17 losses: 138-81 (.630)
Record against winning Power 5 teams: 3-14 (.214)
The three wins were against Louisville in 2006, Kansas State in 2006, and Pitt in 2008

Overall record of all teams played (not including FCS): 477-399 (.545)

Record against teams that were ranked the week the game was played: 3-7
Average ranking of teams defeated: 9.7
Record of ranked teams defeated: 29-10 (.744)
Wins were against #2 USF in 2007, #3 Louisville in 2006, and #24 USF in 2009

Average ranking of teams RU lost to: 18.1
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 69-22 (.758)
Losses were against #25 West Virginia in 2011, #24 West Virginia in 2010, #23 West Virginia in 2009, #20 Cincinnati in 2007, #15 West Virginia in 2006, #13 Connecticut in 2007, and #7 West Virginia in 2007

Record against teams that were ranked at the end of the season: 2-8
Average ranking of teams defeated: 14.0
Record of ranked teams defeated: 22-4 (.846)
Wins were against #7 Louisville in 2006 and #21 Cincinnati in 2011

Average ranking of teams RU lost to: 14.6
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 84-21 (.800)
Losses were against #22 West Virginia in 2009, #20 Cincinnati in 2007, #18 West Virginia in 2011, #17 Cincinnati in 2008, #15 Pitt in 2009, #10 West Virginia in 2006, #9 Cincinnati in 2009, and #6 West Virginia in 2007

I had to double check that Rutgers only played 10 teams that finished the season ranked in the final six seasons of Schiano’s tenure as well as only 10 teams that were ranked when RU played. The highest ranked opponent RU defeated in this time span was #2 USF in 2007, who finished that season unranked. These numbers are worse than I expected.

B1G Challenges
Ohio State and Michigan appear to be the top two teams in the B1G East. To get to their level, we need to be better than Penn State and Michigan State who I believe are the next two teams in the B1G East. I gave each Franklin a two year mulligan to get started at their current job. I also could not include this season because part of the analysis is based on a full season. That means Franklin’s numbers are from 2016 – 2018 and Dantonio’s numbers are from 2009 – 2018. My thinking is by examining the performance of others, we can better determine Schiano’s effectiveness in his first stint at RU and apply that to expectations if he is rehired.

Overall record of all teams played (not including FCS) – Strength of Schedule
Franklin: 286-224 (.561)
Dantonio: 905-709 (.561)
Schiano: 477-399 (.545)

Overall record
Franklin 31-9 (.775)
Dantonio 91-41 (.689)
Schiano 49-28 (.636)

Record vs winning teams
Franklin 13-9 (.591)
Dantonio 39-34 (.534)
Schiano 19-22 (.463)

Record vs .500 teams or worse
Franklin 18-0 (1.000)
Dantonio 45-8 (.849)
Schiano 23-6 (.793)

Record against current Power 5 teams
Franklin 25-9 (.735)
Record of opponents in the 25 wins: 156-158 (.497)
Record of opponents in the 9 losses: 90-29 (.756)

Dantonio 66-39 (.629)
Record of opponents in 66 wins: 430-407 (.514)
Record of opponents in 39 losses: 366-149 (.711)

Schiano 17-17 (.500)
Record of opponents in 17 wins: 87-123 (.414)
Record of the opponents in the 17 losses: 138-81 (.630)

Record against winning Power 5 teams
Franklin 10-15 (.400)
Dantonio 34-32 (.515)
Schiano 3-14 (.176)

Record against teams that were ranked the week the game was played
Franklin: 5-6 (.455)
Average opponent ranking of 5 wins: 11.2
Record of ranked teams defeated: 49-17 (.742)

Average opponent ranking of 6 losses: 8.7
Record of teams PSU lost to: 65-18 (.813)

Dantonio 22-20 (.524)
Average opponent ranking of 22 wins: 12.2
Record of ranked teams defeated: 208-82 (.717)

Average opponent ranking of 20 losses: 11.2
Record of teams MSU lost to: 225-46 (.830)

Schiano: 3-7 (.300)
Average opponent ranking of 3 wins: 9.7
Record of ranked teams defeated: 29-10 (.744)

Average opponent ranking of 7 losses: 18.1
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 69-22 (.758)

Record against teams that were ranked at the end of the season
Franklin: 3-7 (.300)
Average opponent ranking of 3 wins: 10
Record of ranked teams defeated: 32-8 (.800)

Average opponent ranking of 7 losses: 9.1
Record of teams PSU lost to: 75-18 (.807)

Dantonio 15-19 (.441)
Average opponent ranking of 15 wins: 12.7
Record of ranked teams defeated: 160-40 (.800)

Average opponent ranking of 19 losses: 11.2
Record of teams MSU lost to: 202-55 (.786)

Schiano: 2-8 (.200)
Average opponent ranking of 2 wins: 14
Record of ranked teams defeated: 22-4 (.846)

Average opponent ranking of 8 losses: 14.6
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 84-21 (.800)

Summary
In my opinion, Greg Schiano is a very good Plan B and a mediocre Plan A. He will manage the program and recruit well, perhaps at a grade A or B+ level. He is a C grade coach. With the exception of 2010, Schiano was a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season coach against a fairly weak schedule. From 2006 -- 2013, Rutgers had 21 players drafted by the NFL. During the same timeframe, West Virginia had 18, Pitt had 19, and Syracuse had 17.

Although his supporters consider him a sure thing / known quantity, he will make a similar jump from Big East Rutgers to B1G Rutgers as Memphis’ Mike Novell would be making. Schiano went 42-28 (.600) against FBS opponents in his final six seasons at Rutgers while playing seven conference games instead of the nine Rutgers plays as a member of the B1G. Rutgers has played 19 ranked teams in their first five seasons in the B1G compared to 10 ranked teams in Schiano’s final six seasons.

Rutgers schedule against (final) ranked teams by year:
2018: 4 (#3 Ohio State, #14 Michigan, #17 Penn State, and #19 Northwestern)
2017: 4 (#5 Ohio State, #8 Penn State, #15 Washington, and #16 Michigan State)
2016: 4 (#4 Washington, #6 Ohio State, #7 Penn State, and #10 Michigan)
2015: 4 (#4 Ohio State, #6 Michigan State, #11 Michigan, and #21 Wisconsin)
2014: 3 (#1 Ohio State, #5 Michigan State, and #13 Wisconsin)

2011: 2 (#18 West Virginia, and #21 Cincinnati)
2010: 0
2009: 3 (#9 Cincinnati, #15 Pitt, and #22 West Virginia)
2008: 1 (#17 Cincinnati)
2007: 2 (#6 West Virginia, and #20 Cincinnati)
2006: 2 (#7 Louisville, and #10 West Virginia)

 

[RU4Real]

Excellent write-up, but if I'm being honest I'm a little disappointed. When I saw the thread title, I was expecting a song.

 

[TonyVolt]

Christ almighty. How long did it take you to do this analysis?

 

[bethlehemfan]

Christ almighty. How long did it take you to do this analysis?

Can’t see the forest for the trees. Rutgers was a top 40 program, beat a team that ended up 6th in the country and was 5-1 in bowl games recruiting into a failing big east conference. All this at Rutgers which has had zero big boy football success before or after.

 

[anon_ivydyf0amkzay]

The subject of the thread is super creepy so props on that anyways...

 

[redking]

I'm willing to live with a Plan B coach because I'd love to see us scoring at least once per game again.

Afterwards, we can work on scoring at least once per half, then improve on that to scoring at least once per quarter!

 

[buffalochicken21]

Present a better plan A then that's going to fit in our price range and will be willing to come here.

If you don't want Greg, present someone who's clearly better than him that will take our job for our pay and you'll start making an argument.

 

[Knight Shift]

I'm willing to live with a Plan B coach because I'd love to see us scoring at least once per game again.

Afterwards, we can work on scoring at least once per half, then improve on that to scoring at least once per quarter!

That sounds like settling.

In the lyrics of of a Rage Against the Machine Song-
If we settle for nothing now
We'll settle for nothing later.

The fact is nobody knows how Rutgers will perform if we hire Greg, Jones, Candle, or Chip Kelly when he gets fired from UCLA.

While neither would never get hired here, the only two sure things I can think of are Urban Meyer and Mike Leach. Both have succeeded on at least two P5 teams. Mike Leach has a greater probability than Urban Meyer, but he says things that makes some people uncomfortable. There is Nick Saban too- but he is not moving.

 

[TommyGunn]

My head hurts.

 

[RU4Real]

Present a better plan A then that's going to fit in our price range and will be willing to come here.

If you don't want Greg, present someone who's clearly better than him that will take our job for our pay and you'll start making an argument.

Your argument assumes that Schiano wants the job.

 

[BigRnj]

OP I know a few single woman. I could set up a blind date for you... your life would improve quite a bit from where you are now.... let me know.

 

[RUich]

The concept of this being a program that a lot of top candidates would take is false. Other than Greg, Rutgers has been a total failure playing at this level.
I seriously doubt many of Greg's supporters think he is a genius. Quite simply, what they see is a guy who did what nobody else has been able to do, period! They believe that he is capable of doing it yet again.
We are nowhere near being a team with the luxury of being that selective.

 

[jerzeyguy]

Whose to say OP isn't a playa with the ladies, and had one of them do this research for him

OP I know a few single woman. I could set up a blind date for you... your life would improve quite a bit from where you are now.... let me know.

 

[chrisru99]

Great job and good analysis still want Greg back but some of those numbers are sobering.

 

[jerzeyguy]

The thing about Schiano worshippers, they think they know everything. It's funny how Saint Greg is so incredible, but way better programs, with a history of success, wouldn't touch him with a 10ft pole. Just maybe Greg isn't the slam dunk choice - they swear he is. Their's alot of evidence to support - the b10 would expose Greg

 

[essexknight]

He took the worst program in the country and made them relevant. His players won a share of the conference title with Flood at the helm. Now years after he left and his players are no longer here, the program is back to being arguably the worst in the country. There is no statistic to quantify that. His success here is a major reason that RU is in the B1G.

With that said, he definitely has his faults. There are definitely other viable options out there. I’m just not sure that there are a lot of good coaching options who would come here and coach in the brutal B1G East for what RU is most likely willing to pay for in terms of salary and a monetary commitment to the program. Ash was paid near the bottom of B1G coaches. He definitely did not deserve more money. But, a guy like Ash was hired in large part because historically RU has not invested significant money (compared to conference peers) in football. For example, Iowa St and Minnesota both spent $3.5 m per year on their most recent coaching hires. Both programs are in better position because of it. They got coaches with head coaching experience. Is RU willing to pay near that level? I guess we will find out.

 

[Knight Shift]

The concept of this being a program that a lot of top candidates would take is false. Other than Greg, Rutgers has been a total failure playing at this level.
I seriously doubt many of Greg's supporters think he is a genius. Quite simply, what they see is a guy who did what nobody else has been able to do, period! They believe that he is capable of doing it yet again.
We are nowhere near being a team with the luxury of being that selective.

Your first two sentences are inherently contradictory.
In the first, you say top candidates would not take a job with Rutgers. In the second, you give an example of a coach who succeeded at some level, showing that it is indeed possible. There are coaches out there like Mike Leach who have shown that they can succeed at two P5 programs. What would stop them from succeeding at Rutgers?

 

[srru86]

The subject of the thread is super creepy so props on that anyways...

Yes, the lead really undermines the content.

 

[DJ Spanky]

OP I know a few single woman. I could set up a blind date for you... your life would improve quite a bit from where you are now.... let me know.

What if he's more interested in a few single men? Or a few single sheep? Oh, wait, @mildone has that covered!

 

[rutgersguy1]

He took the worst program in the country and made them relevant. His players won a share of the conference title with Flood at the helm. Now years after he left and his players are no longer here, the program is back to being arguably the worst in the country. There is no statistic to quantify that. His success here is a major reason that RU is in the B1G.

With that said, he definitely has his faults. There are definitely other viable options out there. I’m just not sure that there are a lot of good coaching options who would come here and coach in the brutal B1G East for what RU is most likely willing to pay for in terms of salary and a monetary commitment to the program. Ash was paid near the bottom of B1G coaches. He definitely did not deserve more money. But, a guy like Ash was hired in large part because historically RU has not invested significant money (compared to conference peers) in football. For example, Iowa St and Minnesota both spent $3.5 m per year on their most recent coaching hires. Both programs are in better position because of it. They got coaches with head coaching experience. Is RU willing to pay near that level? I guess we will find out.

Correction on that. Minnesota did pay Fleck 3M plus when he was hired. Campbell wasn't paid that when he was hired. He was paid in the 2M range...he got bumped to 3.5M later on.

From an article.

Campbell agreed to a new six-year contract worth $22.5 million, ISU announced Monday. The contract gives Campbell, who turns 38 Wednesday, an annual bump in salary from $2.1 million to $3.5 million, with a buyout in 2018 of $7 million.

https://www.amestrib.com/sports/201...u-just-getting-started-after-agreeing-to-deal

 

[DJ Spanky]

Yes, the lead really undermines the content.

Could the OP be angling for a job at NJ.com?

 

[RU848789]

Summary
In my opinion, Greg Schiano is a very good Plan B and a mediocre Plan A. He will manage the program and recruit well, perhaps at a grade A or B+ level. He is a C grade coach. With the exception of 2010, Schiano was a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season coach against a fairly weak schedule. From 2006 -- 2013, Rutgers had 21 players drafted by the NFL. During the same timeframe, West Virginia had 18, Pitt had 19, and Syracuse had 17.

I'm sure there are several coaches out there who could do better than Greg and if we could get one of them, I'd be happy. However, the vast majority of names I see bandied about are of coaches who could be as good or better than Greg, but also could fail miserably. For me, it's not about winning championships, but about restoring respectability. I'd rather have a coach with a limited ceiling, but a much higher floor, right now, than one with maybe a higher ceiling, but very likely a much lower floor. I simply can't take not getting back to respectability in ~3 years and continuing the death spiral we're in and looking for the next coach again 3-4 years from now. Seriously, I don't know if I can continue supporting the program at this level of ineptitude.

I think Greg has a very high floor, as I'm highly confident he can get us back to 6-8 regular season wins (with an occasional 5 or 9 win season), while I'm less confident most of the others on the list can do that here at Rutgers, given the rebuilding job ahead. I'd kill to go 7-5 again in the B1G and go to a bowl, like we did in Flood's first year in the B1G, with Greg's upperclassmen. I had a ton of fun going to all the games and being competitive with most of our foes and winning some good games too.

And once we get to respectable, maybe Greg-2, having learned from his past mistakes, is better equipped to get us to beyond respectable. But if we're at 6-8 regular season wins for a few years and then remain at that level for 3-4 more years or so, then the job is at least far more attractive for a top, top coach to come in and get us to the next level, especially since we'll be in much better financial shape (more B1G money and a lot more revenue from the fanbase if we're respectable).

 

[RUPsyched]

The Big East was very strong in 2006 and likely would have been very competitive against B1G and SEC opponents. They were 5-0 in bowl games that year. Louisville got robbed by the selection committee in putting them against Wake Forest, a weak ACC champ. Also screwed that year, WVU played Georgia Tech, another just OK ACC team. As for Rutgers, the BE screwed them by not having an adequate bowl to play in. As you know Rutgers pasted their bowl opponent Kansas State.

That year, I would put up the top 4 BE teams against anyone.

 

[mildone]

Greg Schiano was the right hire 19 years ago. He built Rutgers' a solid foundation in football which was needed to weather the oncoming conference expansion storm and help get RU into the B1G. Temple is the only original BCS team that is not in a Power 5 conference. Without Schiano, it is possible Rutgers would have suffered the same fate as Temple.

After Miami and Virginia Tech left the Big East, the conference was not as competitive as the other BCS conferences, with the possible exception of the ACC. After 2009 (the last time the conference finished the season with three ranked teams), the conference was not much stronger than the American Athletic Conference is today. I reviewed the past schedules and results to gauge how RU performed under Schiano against top teams in an attempt to determine expected performance in the toughest division in college football.

Rutgers with Schiano (2006 -- 2011)
I this section I will document the performance of Rutgers in the six seasons from 2006 and 2011 and the competitiveness of the schedule.

Overall record: 49-28 (.636)
Record vs Winning Teams: 19-22 (.463)
Record vs Teams .500 or Worse: 23-6 (.793)
Record vs FCS Teams: 7-0 (1.000)

Current Power 5 teams played (Years Played, Combined Record during those years):
West Virginia (2006 – 2011, 59-19 .756)
Pitt (2006 – 2011, 44-32 .579)
Louisville (2006 – 2011, 41-34 .547)
Syracuse (2006 – 2011, 26-47 .356)
North Carolina (2006, 2008, 2010, 2011, 26-25 .510)
Maryland (2007, 2009, 9-16 .360)
Kansas State (2006, 7-6 .538)
North Carolina State (2008, 6-7 .462)
Iowa State (2011, 6-7 .462)
Illinois (2006, 3-9 .250)
------------------------------------
Cumulative Record: 227-202 .529
B1G Cumulative Record for 2017 and 2018: 200-157 .560

Record against current Power 5 teams: 17-17
Record of opponents in 17 wins: 87-123 (.414)
Record of the opponents in the 17 losses: 138-81 (.630)
Record against winning Power 5 teams: 3-14 (.214)
The three wins were against Louisville in 2006, Kansas State in 2006, and Pitt in 2008

Overall record of all teams played (not including FCS): 477-399 (.545)

Record against teams that were ranked the week the game was played: 3-7
Average ranking of teams defeated: 9.7
Record of ranked teams defeated: 29-10 (.744)
Wins were against #2 USF in 2007, #3 Louisville in 2006, and #24 USF in 2009

Average ranking of teams RU lost to: 18.1
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 69-22 (.758)
Losses were against #25 West Virginia in 2011, #24 West Virginia in 2010, #23 West Virginia in 2009, #20 Cincinnati in 2007, #15 West Virginia in 2006, #13 Connecticut in 2007, and #7 West Virginia in 2007

Record against teams that were ranked at the end of the season: 2-8
Average ranking of teams defeated: 14.0
Record of ranked teams defeated: 22-4 (.846)
Wins were against #7 Louisville in 2006 and #21 Cincinnati in 2011

Average ranking of teams RU lost to: 14.6
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 84-21 (.800)
Losses were against #22 West Virginia in 2009, #20 Cincinnati in 2007, #18 West Virginia in 2011, #17 Cincinnati in 2008, #15 Pitt in 2009, #10 West Virginia in 2006, #9 Cincinnati in 2009, and #6 West Virginia in 2007

I had to double check that Rutgers only played 10 teams that finished the season ranked in the final six seasons of Schiano’s tenure as well as only 10 teams that were ranked when RU played. The highest ranked opponent RU defeated in this time span was #2 USF in 2007, who finished that season unranked. These numbers are worse than I expected.

B1G Challenges
Ohio State and Michigan appear to be the top two teams in the B1G East. To get to their level, we need to be better than Penn State and Michigan State who I believe are the next two teams in the B1G East. I gave each Franklin a two year mulligan to get started at their current job. I also could not include this season because part of the analysis is based on a full season. That means Franklin’s numbers are from 2016 – 2018 and Dantonio’s numbers are from 2009 – 2018. My thinking is by examining the performance of others, we can better determine Schiano’s effectiveness in his first stint at RU and apply that to expectations if he is rehired.

Overall record of all teams played (not including FCS) – Strength of Schedule
Franklin: 286-224 (.561)
Dantonio: 905-709 (.561)
Schiano: 477-399 (.545)

Overall record
Franklin 31-9 (.775)
Dantonio 91-41 (.689)
Schiano 49-28 (.636)

Record vs winning teams
Franklin 13-9 (.591)
Dantonio 39-34 (.534)
Schiano 19-22 (.463)

Record vs .500 teams or worse
Franklin 18-0 (1.000)
Dantonio 45-8 (.849)
Schiano 23-6 (.793)

Record against current Power 5 teams
Franklin 25-9 (.735)
Record of opponents in the 25 wins: 156-158 (.497)
Record of opponents in the 9 losses: 90-29 (.756)

Dantonio 66-39 (.629)
Record of opponents in 66 wins: 430-407 (.514)
Record of opponents in 39 losses: 366-149 (.711)

Schiano 17-17 (.500)
Record of opponents in 17 wins: 87-123 (.414)
Record of the opponents in the 17 losses: 138-81 (.630)

Record against winning Power 5 teams
Franklin 10-15 (.400)
Dantonio 34-32 (.515)
Schiano 3-14 (.176)

Record against teams that were ranked the week the game was played
Franklin: 5-6 (.455)
Average opponent ranking of 5 wins: 11.2
Record of ranked teams defeated: 49-17 (.742)

Average opponent ranking of 6 losses: 8.7
Record of teams PSU lost to: 65-18 (.813)

Dantonio 22-20 (.524)
Average opponent ranking of 22 wins: 12.2
Record of ranked teams defeated: 208-82 (.717)

Average opponent ranking of 20 losses: 11.2
Record of teams MSU lost to: 225-46 (.830)

Schiano: 3-7 (.300)
Average opponent ranking of 3 wins: 9.7
Record of ranked teams defeated: 29-10 (.744)

Average opponent ranking of 7 losses: 18.1
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 69-22 (.758)

Record against teams that were ranked at the end of the season
Franklin: 3-7 (.300)
Average opponent ranking of 3 wins: 10
Record of ranked teams defeated: 32-8 (.800)

Average opponent ranking of 7 losses: 9.1
Record of teams PSU lost to: 75-18 (.807)

Dantonio 15-19 (.441)
Average opponent ranking of 15 wins: 12.7
Record of ranked teams defeated: 160-40 (.800)

Average opponent ranking of 19 losses: 11.2
Record of teams MSU lost to: 202-55 (.786)

Schiano: 2-8 (.200)
Average opponent ranking of 2 wins: 14
Record of ranked teams defeated: 22-4 (.846)

Average opponent ranking of 8 losses: 14.6
Record of ranked teams RU lost to: 84-21 (.800)

Summary
In my opinion, Greg Schiano is a very good Plan B and a mediocre Plan A. He will manage the program and recruit well, perhaps at a grade A or B+ level. He is a C grade coach. With the exception of 2010, Schiano was a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season coach against a fairly weak schedule. From 2006 -- 2013, Rutgers had 21 players drafted by the NFL. During the same timeframe, West Virginia had 18, Pitt had 19, and Syracuse had 17.

Although his supporters consider him a sure thing / known quantity, he will make a similar jump from Big East Rutgers to B1G Rutgers as Memphis’ Mike Novell would be making. Schiano went 42-28 (.600) against FBS opponents in his final six seasons at Rutgers while playing seven conference games instead of the nine Rutgers plays as a member of the B1G. Rutgers has played 19 ranked teams in their first five seasons in the B1G compared to 10 ranked teams in Schiano’s final six seasons.

Rutgers schedule against (final) ranked teams by year:
2018: 4 (#3 Ohio State, #14 Michigan, #17 Penn State, and #19 Northwestern)
2017: 4 (#5 Ohio State, #8 Penn State, #15 Washington, and #16 Michigan State)
2016: 4 (#4 Washington, #6 Ohio State, #7 Penn State, and #10 Michigan)
2015: 4 (#4 Ohio State, #6 Michigan State, #11 Michigan, and #21 Wisconsin)
2014: 3 (#1 Ohio State, #5 Michigan State, and #13 Wisconsin)

2011: 2 (#18 West Virginia, and #21 Cincinnati)
2010: 0
2009: 3 (#9 Cincinnati, #15 Pitt, and #22 West Virginia)
2008: 1 (#17 Cincinnati)
2007: 2 (#6 West Virginia, and #20 Cincinnati)
2006: 2 (#7 Louisville, and #10 West Virginia)

Great post. One of the best, if not the best, football posts since the Ash firing.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Good analysis. That's my main arguement, Greg Schiano will come in and be a bottom half Head Coach with no room to move up. Harbaugh, Franklin, D'Antonio, Ohio St. sells itself with Ryan Day, Ferentz, Chryst, Fitzgerald, Frost are already better coaches than Schiano. That's 8 coaches deep 4 each side, he will have a hard time beating even with talent. I think he's better than Lovie Smith and Mike Locksley and on par with Allen, Fleck and Brohm if he is hired today, do we want to settle for a 9th-12th best coach in the B1G or find a coach better?

 

[mildone]

If you don't want Greg, present someone who's clearly better than him that will take our job for our pay and you'll start making an argument.

You don't know what our pay is. You don't know Schiano wants the job himself. And several people have already presented lots of options besides Schiano.

Hobbs is hopefully looking far and wide to find the best possible person. That's a good thing.

If he cannot find anybody really good to come (something I think is unlikely), then that would suck. But he cannot base his search on the wishful thinking of fans who only want Schiano and who insist, without any factual basis for doing so, that nobody good will take the job. There's no value in his doing that anyway.

 

[mildone]

I'm sure there are several coaches out there who could do better than Greg and if we could get one of them, I'd be happy. However, the vast majority of names I see bandied about are of coaches who could be as good or better than Greg, but also could fail miserably. For me, it's not about winning championships, but about restoring respectability. I'd rather have a coach with a limited ceiling, but a much higher floor, right now, than one with maybe a higher ceiling, but very likely a much lower floor. I simply can't take not getting back to respectability in ~3 years and continuing the death spiral we're in and looking for the next coach again 3-4 years from now. Seriously, I don't know if I can continue supporting the program at this level of ineptitude.

I think Greg has a very high floor, as I'm highly confident he can get us back to 6-8 regular season wins (with an occasional 5 or 9 win season), while I'm less confident most of the others on the list can do that here at Rutgers, given the rebuilding job ahead. I'd kill to go 7-5 again in the B1G and go to a bowl, like we did in Flood's first year in the B1G, with Greg's upperclassmen. I had a ton of fun going to all the games and being competitive with most of our foes and winning some good games too.

And once we get to respectable, maybe Greg-2, having learned from his past mistakes, is better equipped to get us to beyond respectable. But if we're at 6-8 regular season wins for a few years and then remain at that level for 3-4 more years or so, then the job is at least far more attractive for a top, top coach to come in and get us to the next level, especially since we'll be in much better financial shape (more B1G money and a lot more revenue from the fanbase if we're respectable).

The pattern described by the OP's numbers regarding the Big Ten challenge does not appear very promising for a Schiano-coached team. Not sure how you're arriving at a likelihood of his winning 6-8 wins per season.

I only see 3 "sure" wins (the OOC games), plus a couple more reasonably competitive games against average opponents of which we'll likely win roughly half in any given season. So that's an average of 4 wins per season as the starting point.

The crossover games will depend on who the team is. If it's a ranked team, the OP's numbers suggest we probably lose based on Schiano's past performance. If it's an average team, then we win roughly half the time. If it's a crappy team, then we win more often than not.

I think the more likely range is 4-6 wins per season, with most seasons being 5 wins and no bowl game. Now and then we'd get to 7 or if both cross-over game are bad, 8.

And I'm not even factoring in Schiano's consistent annual WTF game or two. There are signs he still has those moments, based on defensive WTF games for Ohio State. That could impact the 3 "likely" OOC wins.

 

[sherrane]

Christ almighty. How long did it take you to do this analysis?

I have been working on this since the day Ash was fired. I went into this with the opinion that as long as a reasonable search was conducted, that Schiano emerging as the #1 candidate would be satisfactory. After this, I'd prefer if he's the second choice. If the first choice doesn't come here, Greg v2.0 is fine with me. He will get talented players into the RU lockerroom, we'll have players getting good grades and staying out of trouble. However, I think we'd eventually get into an Addazio / BC situation where 7-5 no longer cuts it (although we're probably looking at 5-7, 6-6, 7-5 seasons rather than always 7-5).

 

[sherrane]

OP I know a few single woman. I could set up a blind date for you... your life would improve quite a bit from where you are now.... let me know.

I have this time because I've been married for 35 years. LOL.

 

[RUJohnny99]

He took the worst program in the country and made them relevant. His players won a share of the conference title with Flood at the helm.

His players won the Big East BECAUSE he wasn’t here to blow the games against Temple and Cinn.

 

[sherrane]

The concept of this being a program that a lot of top candidates would take is false. Other than Greg, Rutgers has been a total failure playing at this level.
I seriously doubt many of Greg's supporters think he is a genius. Quite simply, what they see is a guy who did what nobody else has been able to do, period! They believe that he is capable of doing it yet again.
We are nowhere near being a team with the luxury of being that selective.

If that is the case, you go with Plan B (Greg). Just try to drive in the winning run first.

 

[sherrane]

Present a better plan A then that's going to fit in our price range and will be willing to come here.

If you don't want Greg, present someone who's clearly better than him that will take our job for our pay and you'll start making an argument.

I don't have a Plan A yet. That is for a later analysis. Schiano was fairly easy because he does have a track record to analyze. I also don't know what RU's price range is and I'm not sure anyone on this forum does.

 

[sherrane]

Good analysis. That's my main arguement, Greg Schiano will come in and be a bottom half Head Coach with no room to move up. Harbaugh, Franklin, D'Antonio, Ohio St. sells itself with Ryan Day, Ferentz, Chryst, Fitzgerald, Frost are already better coaches than Schiano. That's 8 coaches deep 4 each side, he will have a hard time beating even with talent. I think he's better than Lovie Smith and Mike Locksley and on par with Allen, Fleck and Brohm if he is hired today, do we want to settle for a 9th-12th best coach in the B1G or find a coach better?

There are parts of the analysis where people could make a point for Greg vs. Franklin, such as that Greg had a 2-8 record against ranked teams, but Franklin is only 3-7. An argument that Greg would be recruiting in the B1G rather than a fading Big East could potentially transform that 2-8 record to 4-6. He was also 1-1 vs Dantonio when he was at Cincinnati (win in 2005, loss in 2006).

I was very surprised that Franklin was 18-0 against teams .500 or lower. To me, that's a statistical anomaly. Going undefeated at anything in football over a 3 year span is nearly impossible. Perhaps Nunzio performs the correction this year.

 

[Scarlet_Scourge]

Former BCS teams not in Power 5 conferences off the top of my head:

Uconn
Temple
USF
UCF

 

[RU_87]

... From 2006 -- 2013, Rutgers had 21 players drafted by the NFL. ...

This to me is what I see as GS' biggest success at RU. He was able to develop talent on the team. If you can do that again, games will be exciting to watch. He needs the $'s for good coaches...if he can get some good / great OC (and give them more control), I'd take it.

 

[NotInRHouse]

Franklin and D'Antonio also had the benefit of recruiting players to a team that wasn't heading to the Island of Misfit Toys.

 

[jerzeyguy]

Temple has like 20 players in the nfl - atleast half is from Jersey.. Anyone who half decently recruits NJ, is gonna produce NFL talent. Schiano wasn't no master developer. Even if you praise him for the NFL players, you gotta admit he wasn't good enough on gameday to win with them.

 

[RU848789]

The pattern described by the OP's numbers regarding the Big Ten challenge does not appear very promising for a Schiano-coached team. Not sure how you're arriving at a likelihood of his winning 6-8 wins per season.

I only see 3 "sure" wins (the OOC games), plus a couple more reasonably competitive games against average opponents of which we'll likely win roughly half in any given season. So that's an average of 4 wins per season as the starting point.

The crossover games will depend on who the team is. If it's a ranked team, the OP's numbers suggest we probably lose based on Schiano's past performance. If it's an average team, then we win roughly half the time. If it's a crappy team, then we win more often than not.

I think the more likely range is 4-6 wins per season, with most seasons being 5 wins and no bowl game. Now and then we'd get to 7 or if both cross-over game are bad, 8.

And I'm not even factoring in Schiano's consistent annual WTF game or two. There are signs he still has those moments, based on defensive WTF games for Ohio State. That could impact the 3 "likely" OOC wins.

You're entitled to your (wrong) opinion. I see 3 OOC wins and 3-5 B1G wins most years, once we've rebuilt. I also don't expect to always have 3-4 ranked teams in the B1G east like we've often had recently (prior to 2015, there were usually only two ranked B1G east teams), so getting 2 wins (and sometimes 3) in the B1G east should be easier and 1-2 crossover wins is doable when we're better (that's an average of 4 B1G wins). That's 7 with variations around that mean depending on how good we are and how good our opponents are. To me, 5 is in range, but so is 9.

 

[brookdale-soda]

This analysis is great.

If you did the same analysis on our coaching candidates, i wonder what you would find? I hope the athletic dept is doing similar analysis.

By the way, where do you get your data?

 

[mildone]

This analysis is great.

If you did the same analysis on our coaching candidates, i wonder what you would find? I hope the athletic dept is doing similar analysis.

By the way, where do you get your data?

Me too. While I realize Hobb's didn't hire Ash solely on the basis of a "great interview" as many like to claim, I suspect that he also didn't take the time to do this sort of in-depth evaluation of all likely candidates.

This time around, I'm hoping that, with all the time we have between now and the end of the season, an even deeper evaluation of such statistics will take place. I also hope that many conversations take place with associates of all potential candidates.

We know of some potential red flags with Schiano (personality issues that seem to have dogged him at Tampa Bay and Ohio State). Are those real or myth? And if real, how significant were they. Those sorts of details can only be determined by talking with other coaches off the record.

And what similar issues exist among candidates other than Schiano?

If I'm Hobbs and my job depended on this hire (as it probably does), I'd make damn sure as much of this sort of stuff (analysis and off-the-record informed opinion gathering) took place as can be reasonably done. Then at least whatever decision I make is as fully informed as possible.