The OFFICIAL March 13-14 Winter Weather Thread (This is the B1G 1)

RU848789

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Earthlight, the met behind NY Metro Weather and a great generally level-headed poster, just said, about the 12Z Euro, "The greatest model run I've ever seen." I've seen the output panels and there are 6 hour periods fo 2-3" per hour snowfall rates. Remember this is a model, not a forecast, but damn, it highlights the potential for an historic snowfall of 20-30" of snow.

Also, if this and the UK/CMC models verified it would almost certainly be a blizzard for most of the Shore to inland 10-20 miles - expect to see a blizzard watch go up and for snowfall forecasts to go up a couple of inches at 4 pm from the NWS.
 
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mikemarc1

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Euro comes in and continues to crush us

expect more confidence in the 12-18 inch forecasts going forward
That EURO run shows a crippling blizzard. Wow.

Seems to be be a historic Tuesday coming up. Be safe all.
 

RU4Real

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Cautionary note: The last few model runs are reflective of something I like to call "The 48 hour Cardiac".

With seemingly every major storm there's a period around 48 hours prior where the models go though some kind of orgasmic hysteria and predict what is essentially the end of the world.

In nearly every case, they recover their sanity no more than 24 hours later.

What I'm saying is... there's a good chance that we start to see some decreased intensity starting with the overnight runs, tonight. I still think we'll get a hell of a storm, but... not the storm that the latest Euro - and the latest UKMet - are showing us.
 
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RU848789

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Cautionary note: The last few model runs are reflective of something I like to call "The 48 hour Cardiac".

With seemingly every major storm there's a period around 48 hours prior where the models go though some kind of orgasmic hysteria and predict what is essentially the end of the world.

In nearly every case, they recover their sanity no more than 24 hours later.

What I'm saying is... there's a good chance that we start to see some decreased intensity starting with the overnight runs, tonight. I still think we'll get a hell of a storm, but... not the storm that the latest Euro - and the latest UKMet - are showing us.
Yes, this is often the case, plus the NWS and media won't just go with the output of the models verbatim, I don't think - the NWS in Mt. Holly at least hopefully learned that painful lesson in Jan-15 when they stuck with the 20-30" Euro forecasts when most other models were showing 10-20" or so - at least the 5-10" many got would've been a far smaller bust vs. 10-20", although the folks that got 2-3" would've still busted hugely. That's why I expect the NWS to go from maybe 10-18" currently on the maps in the Philly-NYC area to maybe 12-20" or maybe 14-24" but not 20-30". I do expect blizzard watches for the Shore to go up, too.
 

RUMcMahon

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Cautionary note: The last few model runs are reflective of something I like to call "The 48 hour Cardiac".

With seemingly every major storm there's a period around 48 hours prior where the models go though some kind of orgasmic hysteria and predict what is essentially the end of the world.

In nearly every case, they recover their sanity no more than 24 hours later.

What I'm saying is... there's a good chance that we start to see some decreased intensity starting with the overnight runs, tonight. I still think we'll get a hell of a storm, but... not the storm that the latest Euro - and the latest UKMet - are showing us.
Agreed and by Tuesday it will be mixing issues with rain :uzi:
 
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bac2therac

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Cautionary note: The last few model runs are reflective of something I like to call "The 48 hour Cardiac".

With seemingly every major storm there's a period around 48 hours prior where the models go though some kind of orgasmic hysteria and predict what is essentially the end of the world.

In nearly every case, they recover their sanity no more than 24 hours later.

What I'm saying is... there's a good chance that we start to see some decreased intensity starting with the overnight runs, tonight. I still think we'll get a hell of a storm, but... not the storm that the latest Euro - and the latest UKMet - are showing us.

yep pretty much this
 

RU4Real

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Another reason to dampen the collective enthusiasm for this storm is that the latest Euro puts a 977 mb low just off of Atlantic City and brings 60+ mph winds to the entire coast, with gusts inland upwards of 48 - 50 mph. At astronomical high tide. That can't be good.
 

brista21

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The weenies are out on AmericanWX in full force, smdh.

I think in Bergen County it's safe to say we should expect a foot or so at this point. A work from home day.
 

knightfan7

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Another reason to dampen the collective enthusiasm for this storm is that the latest Euro puts a 977 mb low just off of Atlantic City and brings 60+ mph winds to the entire coast, with gusts inland upwards of 48 - 50 mph. At astronomical high tide. That can't be good.
Yup. And I'm supposed to move out the end of the month and start the lift. I've already moved what I can upstairs. CRAP!!!
 

RocktheRac

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The weenies are out on AmericanWX in full force, smdh.

I think in Bergen County it's safe to say we should expect a foot or so at this point. A work from home day.

You will be working from home Tuesday and Wednesday. Peeps will be digging out Wednesday.
 

RU848789

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The weenies are out on AmericanWX in full force, smdh.

I think in Bergen County it's safe to say we should expect a foot or so at this point. A work from home day.
You guys could be the NJ sweetspot. Even if the storm makes a significant shift west, you're far enough inland that you'd likely still get all snow and even if it makes a significant shift east, you'd still likely get major snow, as the precip shield is going to be pretty large no matter what. And if the snowy solutions hit, you're perfectly placed a few hundred miles NW of the storm center, where the best mesoscale deformation bands set up. plus you're far enough NE that you'll be closer to the storm when it's more powerful than it will be when it's closer to Philly, for example (it'll be strengthening during its entire move NE off the coast. At least 12-16" and 24" or more are on the table right now for you.
 

RUBand

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Cautionary note: The last few model runs are reflective of something I like to call "The 48 hour Cardiac".

With seemingly every major storm there's a period around 48 hours prior where the models go though some kind of orgasmic hysteria and predict what is essentially the end of the world.

In nearly every case, they recover their sanity no more than 24 hours later.

What I'm saying is... there's a good chance that we start to see some decreased intensity starting with the overnight runs, tonight. I still think we'll get a hell of a storm, but... not the storm that the latest Euro - and the latest UKMet - are showing us.
I hope you're right
 

camdenlawprof

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I see Bac thinks the storm will start close to midnight. In which direction will this storm will be moving? For instance, will it hit the north first and then the south, or vice versa? Or is it too soon to say?
 

Zak57

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Already have a hotel 5 mins from work for Monday and Tuesday night. Uggggh.
 

ru109

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You guys could be the NJ sweetspot. Even if the storm makes a significant shift west, you're far enough inland that you'd likely still get all snow and even if it makes a significant shift east, you'd still likely get major snow, as the precip shield is going to be pretty large no matter what. And if the snowy solutions hit, you're perfectly placed a few hundred miles NW of the storm center, where the best mesoscale deformation bands set up. plus you're far enough NE that you'll be closer to the storm when it's more powerful than it will be when it's closer to Philly, for example (it'll be strengthening during its entire move NE off the coast. At least 12-16" and 24" or more are on the table right now for you.
Sweetspot for who? 24" does not sound like fun. I'm also in Bergan County and even 16+ inches doesn't sound like good time. LOL
 

RocktheRac

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Well let the party begin for those mega snowlovers. I don't get the hardons for these folks who bask in seeing over 12 inches. It's overkill, And by Thursday they will be licking their chops on Saturday's system. Of course best of luck to those who get in traffic accidents, have property damage and suffer heartattacks from this storm.
 

RUtix4me

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You guys could be the NJ sweetspot. Even if the storm makes a significant shift west, you're far enough inland that you'd likely still get all snow and even if it makes a significant shift east, you'd still likely get major snow, as the precip shield is going to be pretty large no matter what. And if the snowy solutions hit, you're perfectly placed a few hundred miles NW of the storm center, where the best mesoscale deformation bands set up. plus you're far enough NE that you'll be closer to the storm when it's more powerful than it will be when it's closer to Philly, for example (it'll be strengthening during its entire move NE off the coast. At least 12-16" and 24" or more are on the table right now for you.

You know I was just thinking this exact thought myself...mesoscale deformation is always a concern [roll]. Keep the info up love it. I will report in on northern bergen, and southern rockland county...i live directly on the state line
 
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RU848789

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Mt. Holly just converted most of the watches to warnings and upped snowfall amounts a bit to 8-18" of snowfall for areas north of 276/195 and has warnings up now for the Philly/interior South Jersey area for 6-12", as some sleet/rain could mix in, and they kept the watches up for coastal areas and far South Jersey for 6" or more, but didn't go with warnings, since sleet/rain could be more substantial there They didn't post blizzard watches, surprisingly.

4:30 pm edit: 18Z NAM came in all snow and 10-18" for most, roughly - no more inland solution and lots of sleet/rain, except some in far SE NJ.

 
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RU848789

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Anyone have a link to the Euro snowfall total map?
You asked for it, you got it. Just remember, it's a model, not a forecast and it uses the Kuchera algorithm to estimate snow depth via snow ratios calculated based on temps in the dendritic snow growth region aloft, moisture content, vertical velocities (which drive supersaturation and snow crystal nucleation and subsequent vapor phase deposition several thousand feet up in the atmosphere), instead of just using a "standard" 10" snow to 1" liquid ratio. I think it's a good estimate for this storm.

 
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RUJMM78

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Well if we get 30 inches the State will be closed all week.
I'm going to have to move the lawn mower back into the shed and take out the snow blower again.With the anticipated snow levels it probably will require multiple snow blowing time frames to keep up with the storm.Waiting to the end of the storm could be very difficult because the height of the snow will prevent getting a path started for use of the snow blower.
 

RU848789

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Well, Mt. Holly answered my question of why no blizzard watches for the NJ coast: basically, they're not confident enough it'll be all snow when the worst winds hit and may just issue a wind warning. With such screaming winds, they're thinking there might/will be significant sleet/rain at the coast and inland a bit. That hasn't shown up on the snowy models, but the NAM had some of that.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Major 12 to 15 hour winter storm to produce high impact event
most of our area between roughly 3 AM and 3 PM Tuesday***

2AM Tuesday: As a forecaster, my suggestion from the vast majority
of the forecast information is that you want to be, wherever
you can be safe and comfortable for 18 hours, by 2 AM Tuesday,
with subsequent gradual recovery and resumption of traveling
life starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is likely to
be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter, so far, for all of our
area except the ACY area to Sussex County DE storm in early
January.

Hazards:

1) Snowfall:

Warning 8-18" much of e PA and NNJ with blowing and drifting a
possible problem. Small chc of a period of sleet near I-78
around or shortly after sunrise. Snowfall of 1-2"/hour possible
for several hours. Above average confidence.

Warning 6-12" along I-95 PHL to ILG and extreme ne MD where
several hours of sleet between 5 am and 10 am could knock down
snow amounts close to 6 inches. More details tomorrow when we
are more certain of thermal profiles

Watch: Greater than 6" possible. Many complications can occur
in the eastern NJ. More details tomorrow when we can maybe figure
out the reliable expected thermal profiles. The potential is to
change to sleet or rain as temperatures attempt to rise to near
40 for a few hours near or after sunrise when ne winds hammer
the coast with 50 to 60 MPH.

2) Coastal flooding: see coastal flood section.

3) Wind: Northeast wind gusts 50 to 60 mph along the nearest
few miles of the coast Tuesday morning with scattered power
outages expected before winds turn north and northwest and
diminish Tuesday midday or afternoon. At this time, if its
snowing, we ?may? consider Blizzard, but if its rain, then a
high wind warning will work. There is not currently a heavy
inclination to fcst a blizzard in Monmouth county.

The brunt of this event should occur between 3 AM Tuesday and 3
PM Tuesday which will include snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour for a
few hours northwest of I-95.

This storm will show accumulations on pavement, especially prior
to 8AM Tuesday and then during the day where snowfall rates of
1-2"/hour occur. The difference between this and last Friday
March 10, aside from much heavier precipitation amounts, higher
wind, and slightly colder temperatures during the storm, is the
antecedent ground temperatures. On Friday, the 30 degree snowfall
occurred 12 to 15 hours after high temperatures ranged from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. This time, it will occur with frozen or
nearly frozen ground that includes yesterdays, 2nd or 3rd
coldest daytime temps of the winter, and several nights of
below freezing temperatures.

Uncertainty: the usual caveats based on track, modeled deformation-
lift in the dendritic growth zone, as well as periods of recovery,
even during the day when snowfall rates in the bands become light,
but overall confidence is above average on a high impact event,
especially Tuesday morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

They also issued a coastal flood watch, especially for Tuesday morning when they expect moderate flooding (2-3' above the astronomical high tide).

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal flood watch