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The OFFICIAL March 13-14 Winter Weather Thread (This is the B1G 1)

the para NAM brings sleet for a period for central jersey proper and coast

the NAM is 10-15 verbatim IF its all snow, have not seen a snowmap yet but will post when i get one
 
4kNAM

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Well let the party begin for those mega snowlovers. I don't get the hardons for these folks who bask in seeing over 12 inches. It's overkill, And by Thursday they will be licking their chops on Saturday's system. Of course best of luck to those who get in traffic accidents, have property damage and suffer heartattacks from this storm.
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Well, Mt. Holly answered my question of why no blizzard watches for the NJ coast: basically, they're not confident enough it'll be all snow when the worst winds hit and may just issue a wind warning. With such screaming winds, they're thinking there might/will be significant sleet/rain at the coast and inland a bit. That hasn't shown up on the snowy models, but the NAM had some of that.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***Major 12 to 15 hour winter storm to produce high impact event
most of our area between roughly 3 AM and 3 PM Tuesday***

2AM Tuesday: As a forecaster, my suggestion from the vast majority
of the forecast information is that you want to be, wherever
you can be safe and comfortable for 18 hours, by 2 AM Tuesday,
with subsequent gradual recovery and resumption of traveling
life starting late Tuesday or Tuesday night. This is likely to
be the heaviest snowstorm of the winter, so far, for all of our
area except the ACY area to Sussex County DE storm in early
January.

Hazards:

1) Snowfall:

Warning 8-18" much of e PA and NNJ with blowing and drifting a
possible problem. Small chc of a period of sleet near I-78
around or shortly after sunrise. Snowfall of 1-2"/hour possible
for several hours. Above average confidence.

Warning 6-12" along I-95 PHL to ILG and extreme ne MD where
several hours of sleet between 5 am and 10 am could knock down
snow amounts close to 6 inches. More details tomorrow when we
are more certain of thermal profiles

Watch: Greater than 6" possible. Many complications can occur
in the eastern NJ. More details tomorrow when we can maybe figure
out the reliable expected thermal profiles. The potential is to
change to sleet or rain as temperatures attempt to rise to near
40 for a few hours near or after sunrise when ne winds hammer
the coast with 50 to 60 MPH.

2) Coastal flooding: see coastal flood section.

3) Wind: Northeast wind gusts 50 to 60 mph along the nearest
few miles of the coast Tuesday morning with scattered power
outages expected before winds turn north and northwest and
diminish Tuesday midday or afternoon. At this time, if its
snowing, we ?may? consider Blizzard, but if its rain, then a
high wind warning will work. There is not currently a heavy
inclination to fcst a blizzard in Monmouth county.

The brunt of this event should occur between 3 AM Tuesday and 3
PM Tuesday which will include snowfall rates of 1-2"/hour for a
few hours northwest of I-95.

This storm will show accumulations on pavement, especially prior
to 8AM Tuesday and then during the day where snowfall rates of
1-2"/hour occur. The difference between this and last Friday
March 10, aside from much heavier precipitation amounts, higher
wind, and slightly colder temperatures during the storm, is the
antecedent ground temperatures. On Friday, the 30 degree snowfall
occurred 12 to 15 hours after high temperatures ranged from the
upper 50s to upper 60s. This time, it will occur with frozen or
nearly frozen ground that includes yesterdays, 2nd or 3rd
coldest daytime temps of the winter, and several nights of
below freezing temperatures.

Uncertainty: the usual caveats based on track, modeled deformation-
lift in the dendritic growth zone, as well as periods of recovery,
even during the day when snowfall rates in the bands become light,
but overall confidence is above average on a high impact event,
especially Tuesday morning.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

They also issued a coastal flood watch, especially for Tuesday morning when they expect moderate flooding (2-3' above the astronomical high tide).

http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=phi&wwa=coastal flood watch

2-3 feet puts it at 6.5-7.5 above mean low level for Tues morning hide tide where I am. Normally 7 is no biggie for me, it's above 8 that becomes iffy. Right now they're projecting 7.5-8.0 for Sandy Hook and near 7.0 for AC and Seaside.
 
The latest NAM 3k parallel dry slots most of NJ once the low passes offshore.


yeah you can see that the NAM is caution for those wanting the highest totals here of 18-24 inches that the Euro and UKmet and some others are showing

Mets are going to have to weigh this issues and blend. I see Mt Holly is already discussing the sleet potential that the NAM is showing...wouldnt want a sleetfest because that is quite a bitch to remove

GFS is up next
 
Just wanted to say a quick thanks to all the posters who said some nice things about my weather posts over the last couple of days. I really appreciate it. Your "like" counts all went up by 1, lol...

3:51pm said something nice didnt get a like.....screw you....lol

 
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RGEM coming a bit west...brings mixing issues after big dump to those south of 95 and coast...still gives good snows to the north but you see how this model verbatim cuts back on snow totals toward the coast and southeast jersey and even along 95, its about 12 inches

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RGEM coming a bit west...brings mixing issues after big dump to those south of 95 and coast...still gives good snows to the north but you see how this model verbatim cuts back on snow totals toward the coast and southeast jersey and even along 95, its about 12 inches

rgem_asnow_us_16.png
I would sign up for no more than a foot. You get to 18, 24 it becomes a major pain in the ass for clean up, emergency vehicles, or just plain walking.
 
Well let the party begin for those mega snowlovers. I don't get the hardons for these folks who bask in seeing over 12 inches. It's overkill, And by Thursday they will be licking their chops on Saturday's system. Of course best of luck to those who get in traffic accidents, have property damage and suffer heartattacks from this storm.

And those mega snowlovers have a direct effect on traffic accidents, property damage and heart attacks? Damn them!
 
18z GFS continues to say no to big snows....keeps the biggest stuff offshore never getting the area into the heavy bands and scoot away...would be 6-10 inches with a few spots approaching 12....very consistent so lets see how the mets factor it in

gfs_asnow_us_12.png
 
And those mega snowlovers have a direct effect on traffic accidents, property damage and heart attacks? Damn them!


Of course they have no effect rooting for catastrophic weather but maybe they will feel bad seeing the results. Just like I don't root for hurricanes, tornados,tsunami and other bad weather events. Let's me sleep at night.
 
Of course they have no effect rooting for catastrophic weather but maybe they will feel bad seeing the results. Just like I don't root for hurricanes, tornados,tsunami and other bad weather events. Let's me sleep at night.


sure it doesnt effect the outcome, rooting for 6 inches even 10 not so bad...rooting for 18-30 inches so it cripples life for days and hurts the economy...I would say its bad taste
 
Oh to be out sailing in that!

One doesn't sail in 80 mph winds. That's called a "survival storm". Techniques vary somewhat (use of drogues vs. sea anchors, or neither) but the basic principle is the same - reduce sail to bare poles and try to keep the boat from being broadside to the waves. Also pray.
 
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Not when you are planning travel for a sick wife to see a doctor.
Ass wipe you are.

Dude chill he said he would give likes to all that said something nice. I made a joke about you complementing him like two posts later, had zero to do with you wife. I have no clue of your personal life, nor you of mine.

Lets see a daughter to the hospital and father in law for a cancer treatment both Supposed to be going to hackensack on tuesday so fu
 
18z GFS continues to say no to big snows....keeps the biggest stuff offshore never getting the area into the heavy bands and scoot away...would be 6-10 inches with a few spots approaching 12....very consistent so lets see how the mets factor it in

gfs_asnow_us_12.png

As you saw when you asked on American, most pros are generally dismissing the GFS, some for bias reasons (often see model convective feedback robbing the storm of moisture on its east side, plus the GFS very often has a SE bias on tracks) and some for simple weight-of-evidence reasons, given that the GFS is the only one of the four major global models not showing at least 12-24" for the area, whereas the UK, Euro and CMC are. As eduggs said, though, doesn't absolutely mean it's wrong, but it means that forecasters are going to largely ignore it, like the NWS guys have - if they weren't ignoring it, they'd have much lower accumulation forecasts.
 
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One doesn't sail in 80 mph winds. That's called a "survival storm". Techniques vary somewhat (use of drogues vs. sea anchors, or neither) but the basic principle is the same - reduce sail to bare poles and try to keep the boat from being broadside to the waves. Also pray.
In!
 

It's something for the bucket list, I suppose. I've done gusts to 60 but never sustained at 80. Whole different world. 80 mph winds at sea come with 30'+ breaking waves and zero visibility (because the wind rips the surface of the water right off and hurls it through the air and it feels like a million needles when it hits you in the face).
 
Unless the GFS turns out to be right, or there are drastic model changes tonight, there isn't so much more to do until the storm gets going.

I'm not nearly the expert #s and Bac are, but in a small state like NJ 25-50 miles of the track drastically changes what happens, and it is almost impossible to pinpoint the track until it is essentially happening.

Add in that snow totals can be drastically effected based on where those Meso bands set up, the best that can be done now is just to say a major storm is coming with a variety of potential
 
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Love that map/site - hadn't seen it before until Doorman posted it a little while ago on AmericanWx. TWC recently upped their forecast amounts to 12-18" for the entire megalopolis from DC to Boston. A little surprised they're going that high in DC/Balt, as I don't think they're going to get as much precip, as the coastal storm won't be as strong for them, although they may make up for it with the initial punch from the primary low approaching from the midwest. Like most, they have a sharp cutoff in SE NJ where rain/sleet will come. If their map verifies, this will become a top 10-20 all time score on the NESIS scale, given the breadth and depth of impact - rare that we see a storm deliver over a foot of snow to all the big cities.

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