Wow
Its amazing how its wash rinse repeat with unbridled optimism
The Bosnian pickup is very promising but there is little evidence to indicate the other pick ups are meaningful
Are you declaring Buchanan as good as Hyatt or Williams..I'm not fans of those 2 but do not see it
Its amazing to watch the ifs twisting to justify things
The high end is 8-12..I will agree with that. The low end is 2-18
Im giving 4 wins at home because 7 of them are tossups and 3 almost sure losses
This team has a tough road slate
Perhaps Penn State..who else?
Heck, I don't know. Until I actually see any of the players, and waht the returnees have done to improve themselves, none of us will truly know.
That said:
1) Hyatt was a solid ball player, really only suited as a 6th or 7th man. He was solid offensively, but extremely streaky. he shot 50% from the field or better in exactly 3 games of 32 played. He took over 50% of his shots from 3-point range, but only hit 31% from 3-point range. He was a very good rebounder, IMO - but an average defender at best. So, yes, I have some hopes Buchanan might be as good or better. But, sure, he might not be as good. He was better as a freshman at GW in the A-10 than Hyatt was in any single of his 5 years.
2) Let's look at Simpson - the starter for 25 of 32 games. Who should we compare him to on next season's roster? Davis, the potential starting PG? Zrno, the presumptive 2G? Francis, another potential starting PG? Simpson played some PG - but was as much the 2G for RU as the PG. Let's just say this: Other than Davis, Simpson should be considered a far better defender than any other guard for RU in '25-'26. But offensively, it would be hard to imagine any player, even Francis (about whom I am very negative), being quite so awful as Simpson was ... sorry, not meaning to crap on Simpson, but his numbers were what they were. So I expect an upgrade at that position almost no matter who fills it.
3) Mag - well, we know in 2022-23 after McConnell, Mag was the key to RU's defense. And when he played in 2023-24 he was above average at least, maybe better than that. And he was a good rebounder - though not as good as he had been in 2022-23. And offensively ... he was assertive, averaged 9 ppg ... but was 25% from 3, ,39% over all and just 46% from 2-point range ... all (including the rebounding) a substantial drop off from the prior season ... and in more mpg, though in just 17 games. So ... Can Grant be as good or better than Mag? I think you would have to say Grant is unlikely to be as good a defender, though I expect him to improve to be at least solid. But as a freshman, Grant shot a better FG% by a fair margin (45%), shot better from 2 (58% - though admittedly they were pretty much all dunks off alley oops or easy put-backs), was slightly worse form 3 - but not statistically significantly different at 23% to Mag's 25%, averaged more rebounds per game in 8 mpg fewer and averaged 6 ppg vs Mag's 9 ppg as a JUNIOR - in 8 mpg fewer. I would say Grant has a reasonable chance to be a better overall player as a SO than Mag was as a JR: Worse defender, better rebounder and offensive player.
4) Omoruyi: Yeah ... No hope Fall and Ogbole are better than Omoruyi and Woolfolk. RU in 2025-26 will have to make that up e;sewhere in the line-up. Though Omoruyi was definitely worse offensively in 2023-24 than he was in the prior 2 seasons. But he WAS a GREAT help defender with his blocked shots - not good, but great ... though his on-ball post defense was ... ugh. I've walked through those numbers several times before on these Boards. But,m no, Fall and Ogbole will not likely be nearly as good as Omoruyi and Woolfolk.
5) Who was the 5th starter? Davis, Fernandes both started plenty - 29 games between the 2 of them ... and J. Williams started 11 games (Simpson started 25 games) ... 65 starts out of 64 total starts or 2 positions (2G and PG). so ... Take your pick ... assume we swap Zrno for Simpson, let's say. Then you have a JR Davis, a FR Mark and the JR portal Transfer Francis as the "replacement" for Williams, Fernandes and a FR Davis. If a JR Davis is the replacement for a FR Davis I am HIUGHLY confident the JR Davis will be a significant overall improvement. Hopefully his defense returns - but offensively I am certain he will be better than a FR Davis, and I am certain his ass/TI ratio will be far better than Davis' was as a FR, and his shooting percentages will also be better. Francis - well I do have my doubts. I think Fernandes, for example is better than Francis. Obviously, I hope I am wrong. And then there is Williams - who was RU's best player the last 12 games that year. So, yes, for part of the season it will be tough to replace what Williams gave for 12 games - but he gave nothing because he could not play for 20 games - in which case the non-J. Williams player would be ... Griffiths or Austin Williams. I am pretty sure the combo of a JR J. Davis, Mark and Francis will at least meet, if not exceed the performances of 20 games without Williams balanced by 12 games with him, Fernandes, a FR Davis, Griffiths and A. Williams. Not that high a hurdle, after all.
6) Non-Guard Bench other than Centers: Griffiths, A. Williams, Palmquist vs Nwuli, Dortch, Powers and the last player. We know Griffiths was mostly damaging when on the court. Nwuli won't have the offensive potential but we think could be a solid bench player as a FR. I am confident Dortch will be a better overall player than Austen Williams - maybe not an offensive threat, but a real shot-blocker and rebounder off the bench. Better than Palmquist also. Powers - we think is not quite ready for more than spot minutes and we don't know who the 13th player is. But I would absolutely hope Nwuli and Dortch alone are better than Griffiths and A. Williams - in different ways, but overall better.
So, yeah, I think the 2025-26 team may be better than the 2023-24 team. But I do recognize it has a lot of questions marks now and we won't know until after the season begins.
