The pessimism here is way overdone

[RUChoppin]

I was referring strictly to talent level / skill potential. I think the two teams have similar forward looking potential entering the respective season.

Also - I don’t think Thiam’s 29 mpg or Duke’s 13 mpg in 2017-18 mattered at all the following season. They were not really contributors on that team. MJ was in Rutgers system but had not yet played a single possession. J Mike brings an extra year of experience at Rutgers compared to Geo. J Mike arguably will have learned what Pike wants from him as a PG over 2 seasons. Geo played the 2 his first 2 seasons. Grant has one less year compared to Eugene.

The top minute getters in 2018-19 were mostly returning players.

Sorted by minutes played (with # of starts - yrs with Pike)
1026 (30) - Baker (So - 2nd yr)
817 (26) - Omoruyi (Jr - 3rd yr)
710 (22) - Mathis (Fr - Rivals150 - 1st yr)
690 (19) - Harper (Fr - Rivals150 - 1st yr)
551 (31) - Doorson (5th Sr - 3rd yr)
546 (0) - Johnson (RS Fr - 2nd yr)
543 (11) - Kiss (RS So - 2nd yr)
481 (0) - McConnell (Fr - 1st yr)
424 (10) - Thiam (Jr - 3rd yr)
392 (6) - Carter (Juco - 1st yr)
32 (0) - Doucoure (So - 2nd yr)

63% of our total minutes were from guys who were on the roster the prior year (though Johnson/Kiss didn't play, they practiced with the team the entire year and knew plays/rotations/etc), who had chemistry with one another from prior season. 22% were from rwo Rivals150 freshman. 15% were from other newcomers (McConnell, Carter).

I don't expect Davis/Grant to be our #1 and #2 scorers and minute-getters as a returning guard/forward combo like we had in 2018-19 with Baker/Omoruyi. We don't have a Myles-Johnson-equivalent waiting in the wings who had a full year of practice under his belt with the rest of the team. We have one Rivals150 guy coming in vs two (and we know from past experience, that can be a crapshoot).

And we finished that year 14-17 in a slightly less competitive B1G.

 

[RUDivision]

Ooof. “Destroyed the program and helped by the pandemic.” Posts that make day drinking look like a bad thing.

Tariff impacting your meds being delivered again? We will raise Nil for you to ensure you have them.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

You’re ****ing dumb and Stonehill only scored 58 points.

You don’t get the #5 ranked defense while “not having a good defense” that is one of the dumbest things I’ve ever seen someone write, good god.

You also don't get a defense like that unless you've had players in the program for a few years as the continuity helps on defense. So continually referencing the #5 defense with a roster that has 4 players returning and only 2 real contributors among them is senseless. They won't be anywhere near that level. We have no idea if they will even be better than last year's squad.

 

[fluoxetine]

If u throw out the 2 Michigan games (and they were a major underachieving team that eventually led to the coach being fired) and one bad game from Wisconsin

If you throw out 91-93 and 96-98 Jordan had no championships.

, must good teams just rolled through us. Purdue had a 96 point game (which would have easily been well over 100 if they didn’t pull all of their starters), Illinois went for 86 and 76 in two very easy wins, Iowa torched us for 86, Minnesota had an 81 point game, Wisky took it to us in the rematch with 78, Ohio State had 76 and 73, and Waie Forest had 76 and Michigan state had 73 in easy victories. Are defense generally could not do anything against good teams.

My man, these are the numbers that were used to calculate the defense ranking. We ranked #5. They counted Ohio State’s 76, Wisconsin’s 78. They counted every ****ing game because that’s how you do rankings. As I said before, your logic would be embarrassing coming from a small child.

 

[fluoxetine]

You also don't get a defense like that unless you've had players in the program for a few years as the continuity helps on defense. So continually referencing the #5 defense with a roster that has 4 players returning and only 2 real contributors among them is senseless. They won't be anywhere near that level. We have no idea if they will even be better than last year's squad.

This is the kind of coherent argument people should be making if they want to be negative. The guy I’m arguing with can’t be bothered to think of reasons why next year’s defense won’t be as good. That’s a perfectly reasonable argument but bro is instead going for #actually the #5 ranked defense wasn’t very good.

 

[bac2therac]

I agree with the concept broadly, however, I think your floor is a bit low considering we probably won’t have games like Kennesaw or Princeton on the schedule. It’ll likely be 7 cupcakes at home, plus if we lose the first two games in Vegas the third opponent will also be a team that lost twice. Even with the negative outlook things would have really hit a dumpster fire for us not to win more than 8.

Pikes always has a wtf loss

 

[bac2therac]

Bro, we had the 5th ranked defense. This “sure no one was able to score against us but trust me the defense sucked” would sound silly coming from a 5 year old, much less a supposedly grown man who has watched a basketball game before.

Virtually every game we won was won off the back of the defense because WE HAD AN ABSURDLY BAD OFFENSE. With an average defense that team would’ve won <10 games. Literally everyone who is not twisting themselves in knots trying to make themselves more miserable knows this.

I really dont think that team played like the 5th ranked defense

Which particular game did this 14-18 team sparkle in

 

[fluoxetine]

I really dont think that team played like the 5th ranked defense

Which particular game did this 14-18 team sparkle in

Omfg dude they did the math, don’t join the r****d brigade.

Are you guys honestly too stupid to understand how a team can lose with great defense and even worse offense or are you doing a bit or what?

If you want to nibble around the edges and tell me they were overrated at #5 for some specific reason then go ahead, but

(1) man the point of defense is to not allow points, if you want to argue against the math THE BURDEN IS ON YOU to provide the evidence because I’ve provided mine.

(2) if you are going to argue that the defense was a little overrated, okay. If you are going to argue that the #5 ranked defense was “not very good” then you’re an idiot

 

[bac2therac]

Omfg dude they did the math, don’t join the r****d brigade.

Are you guys honestly too stupid to understand how a team can lose with great defense and even worse offense or are you doing a bit or what?

If you want to nibble around the edges and tell me they were overrated at #5 for some specific reason then go ahead, but

(1) man the point of defense is to not allow points, if you want to argue against the math THE BURDEN IS ON YOU to provide the evidence because I’ve provided mine.

(2) if you are going to argue that the defense was a little overrated, okay. If you are going to argue that the #5 ranked defense was “not very good” then you’re an idiot

I'll go through the results tomorrow

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

L

So, looking at Buchanan and Francis, there's very little to look at with regard to high major opponents.

Buchanan's high major experience are games @South Carolina and (n)Kansas St. Per bart, he's had 4 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (VCU and Boise St last year, South Carolina and Dayton the year before).

Francis' high major experience are games @Miami, @Wake, @SHU, and @Villanova. Per bart, he's had just 2 games vs Top 50 opponents across 2 seasons (Nova last year, Wake the year before).

Then there's Baye Fall, who's had just 2 games with double digit minutes (11 min vs. Cleveland State, 10 min vs. Gardner-Webb). Through 2 seasons he's averaging 8.5 fouls per 40 minutes and has attempted just 15 FTs (none last year across 26 minutes).

The incoming transfers aren't inspiring a lot of confidence, tbh. And I'm thinking we may be done adding right now with 12 scholarship players.

Buchanan is fine. He played 9 games against Q1 and Q2 last year and 9 more against Q3. Not great but a good number of teams with at least a pulse. Results against top 150ish teams are real. They might not perfectly translate up a level but some of it will. He has talent. Derek didn’t even average 10 in the A-10 as a junior. Noah was a bench warmer as a frosh. 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg is legit as a true frosh in the A-10.

NJIT on the other hand. To be inefficent on that team does not breed confidence at all.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

The top minute getters in 2018-19 were mostly returning players.

Sorted by minutes played (with # of starts - yrs with Pike)
1026 (30) - Baker (So - 2nd yr)
817 (26) - Omoruyi (Jr - 3rd yr)
710 (22) - Mathis (Fr - Rivals150 - 1st yr)
690 (19) - Harper (Fr - Rivals150 - 1st yr)
551 (31) - Doorson (5th Sr - 3rd yr)
546 (0) - Johnson (RS Fr - 2nd yr)
543 (11) - Kiss (RS So - 2nd yr)
481 (0) - McConnell (Fr - 1st yr)
424 (10) - Thiam (Jr - 3rd yr)
392 (6) - Carter (Juco - 1st yr)
32 (0) - Doucoure (So - 2nd yr)

63% of our total minutes were from guys who were on the roster the prior year (though Johnson/Kiss didn't play, they practiced with the team the entire year and knew plays/rotations/etc), who had chemistry with one another from prior season. 22% were from rwo Rivals150 freshman. 15% were from other newcomers (McConnell, Carter).

I don't expect Davis/Grant to be our #1 and #2 scorers and minute-getters as a returning guard/forward combo like we had in 2018-19 with Baker/Omoruyi. We don't have a Myles-Johnson-equivalent waiting in the wings who had a full year of practice under his belt with the rest of the team. We have one Rivals150 guy coming in vs two (and we know from past experience, that can be a crapshoot).

And we finished that year 14-17 in a slightly less competitive B1G.

Your doing too much analysis here relative to the point I was making. In terms returning players who were major parts of the 2018-19 rotation, it was Geo (who played so much as a frosh out of need - he and Corey were the only playable guards on the 2017-18 team) Eugene 22 mpg), MJ who redshirted. Doorson rode the bench in 2017-18 but played a bigger role the next year -he beat Duke out.

I think folks are writing J Mike off a bit unfairly. As I said - in the 3 games Dylan missed he delivered an average of like 12 ppg and 5 apg (something like that). I’m not saying he will do that over the course of a season as lead guard but I also don’t think it’s impossible that he does ok if he’s the guy who needs to take that next step. In the best case scenerio he steps up and takes Geo’s role. Ogbole takes another step and gives us close to what MJ did as a redshirt sophomore. Buchanan deliver Eugene’s production. The incoming frosh group is a good one. The 4 returning players could all be contributors in the rotation. Your right - that was a 14 win team, but I’m making a case that with a little more luck, that team could’ve had a better season. That’s all.

You might say to me - oh but Geo, Eugene and MJ are SO much better than J Mike, Buchanan and Ogbole but that would be a Monday night quarterbacking view. Geo had a good frosh year playing the 2 in a situation where there was zero competition at guard for PT. Sophomore Geo made a lot of mistakes playing the point for the first time. He’d tell you that himself. I’m not saying junior J Mike is “better” than him, but he’s certainly more experienced at PG. After his frosh season Buchanan was being discussed as a possible NBA player. Eugene was not thought of having any elite potential following 2017-18. It’s a fair comparison at the time. That doesn’t mean Buchanan will take the next step but it’s not impossible. MJ only played 18 mpg as a sophomore - he was very foul prone. He still put up 8 ppg which may be a stretch for our centers but between Dortch, Ogbole, Fall and Ware it’s certainly possible we can be similar to that team at center. Grant is better than Thiam. I don’t care how many minutes Thiam played. Grant is still better.

Pikes always has a wtf loss

Agreed, although, in fairness, under Pike, I think the only one at home was Lafayette. So hopefully we won’t have any neutral games against cupcakes. I’ll be pissed if I see one on the schedule.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

This is the kind of coherent argument people should be making if they want to be negative. The guy I’m arguing with can’t be bothered to think of reasons why next year’s defense won’t be as good. That’s a perfectly reasonable argument but bro is instead going for #actually the #5 ranked defense wasn’t very good.

I’m not expecting a defense like that. I’m expecting a style resembling the one Bob Huggins put in place the year he turned things around with press Virginia (I believe he did it with an A-10 transfer leading the way, ironically - didn’t that Staten kid start at Dayton?).

A press requires a group with a collection of kids that have the right personality to implement it. It’s generally agnostic to “experience in the system” and such. Pike launched it successfully part time with Mag in 2022-23 before he got hurt with a group that had played in his system but it wasn’t a scheme he had used much before that.

Whether or not, we end up having a group of kids with the right DNA to successfully pull it off is a question mark. Press VA fell apart when Staten, Carter, Daxter Miles, Holton, etc graduated because the next kids Huggs recruited didn’t have it. I think Grant, Dortch and Davis are pretty good fits for it though.

 

[bac2therac]

is anyone willing to predict a plus 500 record...the argument here is basically whether we go 10-21 or 14-17 and that still sucks..what i am worried about is the thinking that going 14-17 means somewhat of a successful season and that really is a terrible bar to set

without nil money or some kind of dynamic change in the situation one its going to be hard to keep any player who shows promise here or to bring any new ones. its a grim situation. changing coaches without nil money is meaningless but are we setting ourselves up for perpetually 14-17 season as doing the best we can and thats okay for the fanbase

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

is anyone willing to predict a plus 500 record...the argument here is basically whether we go 10-21 or 14-17 and that still sucks..what i am worried about is the thinking that going 14-17 means somewhat of a successful season and that really is a terrible bar to set

without nil money or some kind of dynamic change in the situation one its going to be hard to keep any player who shows promise here or to bring any new ones. its a grim situation. changing coaches without nil money is meaningless but are we setting ourselves up for perpetually 14-17 season as doing the best we can and thats okay for the fanbase

Predicting? No. But it also wouldn’t completely shock me if we turn out better than everyone thinks.

 

[bac2therac]

right...what does that mean....14-17....15-16 is that acceptable...it would be the 4th straight year of not making the ncaa tourney

we are losing 2 nba top 5 picks..the level of our offense is going to plummet, we got use to seeing shots go down and games where there was incredible high shooting percentages....short memory but you will be reminded of the 2024 team and some early Pike ones

threading the needle to win league games in 58-55 rock fights is not easy. Pike throws a few of those up but its as sustainable as trying to win 94-92 last year

 

[fluoxetine]

right...what does that mean....14-17....15-16 is that acceptable...it would be the 4th straight year of not making the ncaa tourney

we are losing 2 nba top 5 picks..the level of our offense is going to plummet, we got use to seeing shots go down and games where there was incredible high shooting percentages....short memory but you will be reminded of the 2024 team and some early Pike ones

threading the needle to win league games in 58-55 rock fights is not easy. Pike throws a few of those up but its as sustainable as trying to win 94-92 last year

What do you want to do about it? You and so many other people admit the problem is money to pay for players and then… still circle around to wanting to get rid of Pike.

For what? We need to either fix the fundraising problem (or have it fixed for us via revenue sharing/caps/etc) or we should frankly just give up. If by some miracle we do find a coach who can, with some consistency, take a $2mm roster and beat $10mm rosters then we aren’t going to have him for long.

 

[fluoxetine]

And I never would’ve said this even two years ago, but if things really are that bleak then “give up” would be an acceptable option for me. The current world is like playing a video game against people who paid hundreds of extra dollars to level their character up to the highest level and get all the best items.. sure, I guess I could spend my own money to match that but it seems like a stupid activity to me.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I’m not one to focus on points but here are my predictive numbers in a world where Pike pulls off a shocker (which I’ll define as delivering a better final record than the one he produced with 2 NBA draftees - 16 wins entering BIG tourney):

Buchanan - 13
J Mike - 9
Ogbole/Fall/Dortch - 15 (combined)
Grant - 8
Zrno - 8
Nwuli - 7
Mark - 7
Francis - 4
Deep Bench - 0 (only garbage time)

That’d be 71 points of offense. A rotation of 10 guys in a system that involves a lot of pressing and trapping on D.

Again - this isn’t my prediction for how the season will go. Rather, I’m saying that if a lot goes right, this outcome theoretically could be possible.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

What do you want to do about it? You and so many other people admit the problem is money to pay for players and then… still circle around to wanting to get rid of Pike.

For what? We need to either fix the fundraising problem (or have it fixed for us via revenue sharing/caps/etc) or we should frankly just give up. If by some miracle we do find a coach who can, with some consistency, take a $2mm roster and beat $10mm rosters then we aren’t going to have him for long.

I would’ve bought into this but I’m not quite there on the Francis pick up. It seems more and more like we might be paying a not immaterial portion of what money we do have (and substantially more than the market for that player demands) as a favor to one of our assistant coaches. Regardless of how the season goes, that wouldn’t be cool with me, if true.

But look - we’re almost certainly not going to be paying more than 13 kids because it wouldn’t make sense. Every kid on schollie is going to have to get a cut from the Vegas pot, etc. So unless spot 13 is filled with a clear 7 figure guy which would be unexpected, things are in fact shaping up to suggest that Francis is getting hundreds of thousands of dollars to play for us.

 

[lion1983]

I’m not one to focus on points but here are my predictive numbers in a world where Pike pulls off a shocker (which I’ll define as delivering a better final record than the one he produced with 2 NBA draftees - 16 wins entering BIG tourney):

Buchanan - 13
J Mike - 9
Ogbole/Fall/Dortch - 15 (combined)
Grant - 8
Zrno - 8
Nwuli - 7
Mark - 7
Francis - 4
Deep Bench - 0 (only garbage time)

That’d be 71 points of offense. A rotation of 10 guys in a system that involves a lot of pressing and trapping on D.

Again - this isn’t my prediction for how the season will go. Rather, I’m saying that if a lot goes right, this outcome theoretically could be possible.

Perhaps ... but even if things go relatively "right", I think 71 ppg is probably too many likely points.

And I think Ogbole/Fall/Dortch would seem unlikely to average 15 ppg between them - 10 ppg seems more likely to me.

Plus, a theoretically possible )not prediction, but possible) would have Grant developing more than some expect from FR year to SO year - and averaging 10 ppg, not 8 ppg ... and Zrno averaging 10-11 ppg. Davis would probably average 1 ppg less - as he'd be setting up more than shooting, and Mark or Nwuli would prob be in the 5 ppg range.

Not trying to argue, just lay out a different "possible."

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Perhaps ... but even if things go relatively "right", I think 71 ppg is probably too many likely points.

And I think Ogbole/Fall/Dortch would seem unlikely to average 15 ppg between them - 10 ppg seems more likely to me.

Plus, a theoretically possible )not prediction, but possible) would have Grant developing more than some expect from FR year to SO year - and averaging 10 ppg, not 8 ppg ... and Zrno averaging 10-11 ppg. Davis would probably average 1 ppg less - as he'd be setting up more than shooting, and Mark or Nwuli would prob be in the 5 ppg range.

Not trying to argue, just lay out a different "possible."

There are a couple possible permutations that present a path to 70+ points. It’s not the most likely outcome, the only point I was making is that it’s not completely impossible.

I see Dortch potentially playing 5-10 minutes at center and 5-10 minutes at the 4 en route to 4-5 ppg. My thinking was Ogbole and Fall would split the rest of the time at center and theoretically could each produce similar scoring - mostly on put back type offense.

The scenerios I’m envisioning where we overachieve depend on Nwuli coming in and being an impact defender off the bat. A press / trap system needs and anchor and he and Bryce are who I would nominate as the possible candidates to split that role. Those guys would be taking PT from either Grant or Buchanan. It could certainly go the other way - my opinion right now if just that of the two, Buchanan is the better defender (especially with rebounding) and more versatile scorer (along with being a much better ball handler).

 

[lion1983]

L


Buchanan is fine. He played 9 games against Q1 and Q2 last year and 9 more against Q3. Not great but a good number of teams with at least a pulse. Results against top 150ish teams are real. They might not perfectly translate up a level but some of it will. He has talent. Derek didn’t even average 10 in the A-10 as a junior. Noah was a bench warmer as a frosh. 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg is legit as a true frosh in the A-10.

NJIT on the other hand. To be inefficent on that team does not breed confidence at all.

So ... I went game by game on Buchanan's 2 seasons - playing off RUChoppin's post about P5 opponents and Torvik Top 50 opponents.

Buchanan 2023-24 (Freshman Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 team in @South Carolina, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in @South Carolina and in-conference, @Dayton. BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 10 games against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: @VCU, George Mason, 2X vs UMass, 2X vs Richmond, @Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.

So ... Drum roll, results:

1) @South Carolina: Buchanan scored 18 points and 6 rebounds on 6-11 FG, 1-1 3-point, 5-10 2-point, 5-6 FT

2) The 10 games in-conference vs top half A-10 teams: Buchanan averaged 13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds ... on 52.8% FG (55-104), 36% 3-point FG (just 5-14), 55.6% 2-point FG (50-90), 60% FT (28-47) ... he also had 20 assists and 25 turnovers.

Overall, with South Carolina and the 10 top half conference games, he averaged 13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 53% FG, 40% 3-point, 55% 2-point and 62% FT ... A bit less than he did against the other, lesser, competition and overall (Overall: 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 54.5% FG, 57% 2-point FG), but still quite solid for a freshman.

Buchanan 2024-25 (Sophomore Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 teams (N) vs Kansas State, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in VCU (in conference). and Boise St (post season - CBI or NIT?) BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 9 games this season against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: 3X vs George Mason, St. Louis, @St. Bonaventure, VCU, @Davidson, St. Joes and @Loyola-Chicago.

There was also an issue with an injury - ONLY the Kansas St game of all those above games came BEFORE his injury, all the rest came AFTER his injury - so I will also look at pre- and post- injury stats.

1) (N) vs Kansas St - not a good game: 9 points, but 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 turnovers, on 3-11 FG, 0-2 3-point FG and 3-9 2-point FG ... 3-7 FT.

2) Boise St in the post season: AFTER Injury - a very poor game just 3 points, and 7 rebounds.

Overall in those 2 out-of-conference games Buchanan was not particularly effective: in 2 games, 12 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists ,8 turnovers ... 4-13 FG, 0-3 3-point FG, 4-10 2-point FG, 4-11 FT.

3) In his 9 conference games against top half A-10 opponents: 7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg ... on 48% FG (23-48), 29% 3-point (on just 2-7 3-pointers), 51% 2-point FG (21-41) and 64.5% FT (20-31).

4) POST Injury - all games (18 games): Buchanan averaged25 minutes per game, 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 ass/g, 1.6 TO/g on 46% FG, 22% 3-point FG (9-41), 49% 2-point FG, 63% FT.

5) PRE-INJURY - 14 games, the 1st 14 games of the season: Buchanan averaged 33 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.9 ass/g, 2.4 TOI/g, 45% FG, 16% 3-point FG (and awful 5-31), 52.4% 2-point FG, 68% FT (67-98 - taking 6=7 FT per game!).

As you can see, Buchanan's injury had a MAJOR impact on his season. Before the injury, albeit before conference (and tougher competition than most of the OOC slate), Buchanan was essentially the same player as a SO as he was as a FR - except for the awful 6-31 3-point FG shooting. Roughly the same ppg, more rpg, only a small increase in mpg, though he did have a reduced FG% efficiency - but still a very respectable 52%+ 2-point FG% ... and an improved FT%.

Then he got hurt - his ankle, missed 2 weeks, cane back - and I would not be surprised if he aggravated the ankle after a couple of games. He had a poor game his 1st game back - probably was not ready (we saw that with Harper this year, eh?), then had a GREAT game - 36 minutes perfect from the floor, 15 points and 8 rebounds in a 2 OT game vs a very good George Mason team ... and then his game pretty much fell apart except for 2 very good games against St Bonaventure and St. Joes - his only 2 other games (other than George Mason) in which he was in double figures down the stretch, post injury.

It is certainly possible he is just not that good. But it seems much more plausible the ankle injury lingered and had a severe affect on his game - added to the emergence of another player in his absence.

Look ... I have NO IDEA how this translates to the Big 10 ... none of us do. BUT ... based on the pattern of his 1 seasons, how he did against at least high mid-major teams when he was HEALTHY, it is not unreasonable to think he could average 10+ ppg - maybe even 12+ ppg..

Consider this: J. Williams played for Temple - an A-10 team. Now he played a different role than did Buchanan - he was their starting PG as a FR and SO. But he averaged 9.5 ppg - and that translated very well to the Big 10. Though he was not as good - and played pretty poorly many of us thought last season (playing hurt much of the year, BTW), he did average 8+ ppg last year and 12+ ppg in 12 games the year before.

I would say Williams is a MUCH better comparison on how Buchanan might translate to the Big 10 than players like Acuff (also injured), Derkack ... and by extension, Francis.

Just saying ...

I actually feel a little better the more you folk are making me look at this, and at Buchanan. No, he is not perfect (poor 3-point shooter, not great FT shooter, too turnover prone), but definitely possibilities. Let's hope he is healthy 100% recovered, and that the ankle injury did not cause permanent damage to his game.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

So ... I went game by game on Buchanan's 2 seasons - playing off RUChoppin's post about P5 opponents and Torvik Top 50 opponents.

Buchanan 2023-24 (Freshman Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 team in @South Carolina, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in @South Carolina and in-conference, @Dayton. BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 10 games against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: @VCU, George Mason, 2X vs UMass, 2X vs Richmond, @Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.

So ... Drum roll, results:

1) @South Carolina: Buchanan scored 18 points and 6 rebounds on 6-11 FG, 1-1 3-point, 5-10 2-point, 5-6 FT

2) The 10 games in-conference vs top half A-10 teams: Buchanan averaged 13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds ... on 52.8% FG (55-104), 36% 3-point FG (just 5-14), 55.6% 2-point FG (50-90), 60% FT (28-47) ... he also had 20 assists and 25 turnovers.

Overall, with South Carolina and the 10 top half conference games, he averaged 13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 53% FG, 40% 3-point, 55% 2-point and 62% FT ... A bit less than he did against the other, lesser, competition and overall (Overall: 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 54.5% FG, 57% 2-point FG), but still quite solid for a freshman.

Buchanan 2024-25 (Sophomore Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 teams (N) vs Kansas State, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in VCU (in conference). and Boise St (post season - CBI or NIT?) BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 9 games this season against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: 3X vs George Mason, St. Louis, @St. Bonaventure, VCU, @Davidson, St. Joes and @Loyola-Chicago.

There was also an issue with an injury - ONLY the Kansas St game of all those above games came BEFORE his injury, all the rest came AFTER his injury - so I will also look at pre- and post- injury stats.

1) (N) vs Kansas St - not a good game: 9 points, but 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 turnovers, on 3-11 FG, 0-2 3-point FG and 3-9 2-point FG ... 3-7 FT.

2) Boise St in the post season: AFTER Injury - a very poor game just 3 points, and 7 rebounds.

Overall in those 2 out-of-conference games Buchanan was not particularly effective: in 2 games, 12 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists ,8 turnovers ... 4-13 FG, 0-3 3-point FG, 4-10 2-point FG, 4-11 FT.

3) In his 9 conference games against top half A-10 opponents: 7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg ... on 48% FG (23-48), 29% 3-point (on just 2-7 3-pointers), 51% 2-point FG (21-41) and 64.5% FT (20-31).

4) POST Injury - all games (18 games): Buchanan averaged25 minutes per game, 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 ass/g, 1.6 TO/g on 46% FG, 22% 3-point FG (9-41), 49% 2-point FG, 63% FT.

5) PRE-INJURY - 14 games, the 1st 14 games of the season: Buchanan averaged 33 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.9 ass/g, 2.4 TOI/g, 45% FG, 16% 3-point FG (and awful 5-31), 52.4% 2-point FG, 68% FT (67-98 - taking 6=7 FT per game!).

As you can see, Buchanan's injury had a MAJOR impact on his season. Before the injury, albeit before conference (and tougher competition than most of the OOC slate), Buchanan was essentially the same player as a SO as he was as a FR - except for the awful 6-31 3-point FG shooting. Roughly the same ppg, more rpg, only a small increase in mpg, though he did have a reduced FG% efficiency - but still a very respectable 52%+ 2-point FG% ... and an improved FT%.

Then he got hurt - his ankle, missed 2 weeks, cane back - and I would not be surprised h=if he aggravated the ankle after a couple of games. He had a poor game his 1st game back - probably was not ready (we saw that with Harper this year, eh?), then had a GREAT game - 36 minutes perfect from the floor, 15 points and 8 rebounds in a 2 OT game vs a very good George Mason team ... and then his game pretty much fell apart except for 2 very good games against St Bonaventure and St. Joes - his only 2 other games (other than George Mason) in which he was in double figures down the stretch, post injury.

It is certainly possible he is just not that good. But it seems much more plausible the ankle injury lingered and had a severe affect on his game - added to the emergence of another player in his absence.

Look ... I have NO IDEA how this translates to the Big 10 ... none of us do. BUT ... based on the pattern of his 1 seasons, how he did against at least high id-major teams when he was HEALTHY, it is not unreasonable to think he could average 10_ ppg - maybe even 12+ ppg..

Consider this: J. Williams played for Temple - an A-10 team. Now he played a different role than did Buchanan - he was their starting PG as a FR and SO. But he averaged 9.5 ppg - and that translated very well to the Big 10. Though he was not as good - and played pretty poorly many of us thought last season (playing hurt much of the year, BTW), he did average 8+ ppg last year and 12+ ppg in 12 games the year before.

I would say Williams is a MUCH better comparison on how Buchanan might translate to the Big 10 than players like Acuff (also injured), Derkack, Fernandes ... and by extension, Francis.

Just saying ...

I actually feel a little better the more you folk are making me look at this, and at Buchanan. No, he is not perfect (poor 3-point shooter, not great FT shooter, too turnover prone), but definitely possibilities. Let's hope he is healthy 100% recovered, and that the ankle injury did not cause permanent damage to his game.

This

Since I brought the Dayton transfer that played for Bob Huggins up in the string about Pike’s D, I went back and looked up his stats. Staten was the kids name. As a true frosh he averaged 8.5 ppg at Dayton (A-10 school). Again - Noah averaged 1 ppg in garbage time as a frosh at UMass. The bottom line is that it’s not “nothing” to put up 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg as a frosh in the A-10. Anyone who can do this has talent. Buchanan was a good pick up. I said it before - I would love to use our last spot to pick up another kid with a profile like his. Buchanan would be making 7 figures if last season hadn’t happened and he was entering his sophomore season. Without a doubt.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

So ... I went game by game on Buchanan's 2 seasons - playing off RUChoppin's post about P5 opponents and Torvik Top 50 opponents.

Buchanan 2023-24 (Freshman Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 team in @South Carolina, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in @South Carolina and in-conference, @Dayton. BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 10 games against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: @VCU, George Mason, 2X vs UMass, 2X vs Richmond, @Dayton, Loyola-Chicago, St. Bonaventure and Duquesne.

So ... Drum roll, results:

1) @South Carolina: Buchanan scored 18 points and 6 rebounds on 6-11 FG, 1-1 3-point, 5-10 2-point, 5-6 FT

2) The 10 games in-conference vs top half A-10 teams: Buchanan averaged 13.4 points, 6.7 rebounds ... on 52.8% FG (55-104), 36% 3-point FG (just 5-14), 55.6% 2-point FG (50-90), 60% FT (28-47) ... he also had 20 assists and 25 turnovers.

Overall, with South Carolina and the 10 top half conference games, he averaged 13.8 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 53% FG, 40% 3-point, 55% 2-point and 62% FT ... A bit less than he did against the other, lesser, competition and overall (Overall: 15.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 54.5% FG, 57% 2-point FG), but still quite solid for a freshman.

Buchanan 2024-25 (Sophomore Season):

Buchanan played against 1 P5 teams (N) vs Kansas State, and 2 Torvik Top 50 teams in VCU (in conference). and Boise St (post season - CBI or NIT?) BUT ... he also played in a solid mid-major conference, perhaps even what might be labelled a high mid-major conference in the A-10. So I also looked at his play IN CONFERENCE - But ONLY against A-10 teams with at least a .500+ record for the season - so only top half of the conference A-10 teams. GW played 9 games this season against Top Half A-10 teams, teams with at least a .500+ overall record. These 10 teams were: 3X vs George Mason, St. Louis, @St. Bonaventure, VCU, @Davidson, St. Joes and @Loyola-Chicago.

There was also an issue with an injury - ONLY the Kansas St game of all those above games came BEFORE his injury, all the rest came AFTER his injury - so I will also look at pre- and post- injury stats.

1) (N) vs Kansas St - not a good game: 9 points, but 7 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 turnovers, on 3-11 FG, 0-2 3-point FG and 3-9 2-point FG ... 3-7 FT.

2) Boise St in the post season: AFTER Injury - a very poor game just 3 points, and 7 rebounds.

Overall in those 2 out-of-conference games Buchanan was not particularly effective: in 2 games, 12 points, 14 rebounds, 6 assists ,8 turnovers ... 4-13 FG, 0-3 3-point FG, 4-10 2-point FG, 4-11 FT.

3) In his 9 conference games against top half A-10 opponents: 7.6 ppg, 4.7 rpg ... on 48% FG (23-48), 29% 3-point (on just 2-7 3-pointers), 51% 2-point FG (21-41) and 64.5% FT (20-31).

4) POST Injury - all games (18 games): Buchanan averaged25 minutes per game, 7.1 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 1.5 ass/g, 1.6 TO/g on 46% FG, 22% 3-point FG (9-41), 49% 2-point FG, 63% FT.

5) PRE-INJURY - 14 games, the 1st 14 games of the season: Buchanan averaged 33 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 2.9 ass/g, 2.4 TOI/g, 45% FG, 16% 3-point FG (and awful 5-31), 52.4% 2-point FG, 68% FT (67-98 - taking 6=7 FT per game!).

As you can see, Buchanan's injury had a MAJOR impact on his season. Before the injury, albeit before conference (and tougher competition than most of the OOC slate), Buchanan was essentially the same player as a SO as he was as a FR - except for the awful 6-31 3-point FG shooting. Roughly the same ppg, more rpg, only a small increase in mpg, though he did have a reduced FG% efficiency - but still a very respectable 52%+ 2-point FG% ... and an improved FT%.

Then he got hurt - his ankle, missed 2 weeks, cane back - and I would not be surprised if he aggravated the ankle after a couple of games. He had a poor game his 1st game back - probably was not ready (we saw that with Harper this year, eh?), then had a GREAT game - 36 minutes perfect from the floor, 15 points and 8 rebounds in a 2 OT game vs a very good George Mason team ... and then his game pretty much fell apart except for 2 very good games against St Bonaventure and St. Joes - his only 2 other games (other than George Mason) in which he was in double figures down the stretch, post injury.

It is certainly possible he is just not that good. But it seems much more plausible the ankle injury lingered and had a severe affect on his game - added to the emergence of another player in his absence.

Look ... I have NO IDEA how this translates to the Big 10 ... none of us do. BUT ... based on the pattern of his 1 seasons, how he did against at least high mid-major teams when he was HEALTHY, it is not unreasonable to think he could average 10+ ppg - maybe even 12+ ppg..

Consider this: J. Williams played for Temple - an A-10 team. Now he played a different role than did Buchanan - he was their starting PG as a FR and SO. But he averaged 9.5 ppg - and that translated very well to the Big 10. Though he was not as good - and played pretty poorly many of us thought last season (playing hurt much of the year, BTW), he did average 8+ ppg last year and 12+ ppg in 12 games the year before.

I would say Williams is a MUCH better comparison on how Buchanan might translate to the Big 10 than players like Acuff (also injured), Derkack ... and by extension, Francis.

Just saying ...

I actually feel a little better the more you folk are making me look at this, and at Buchanan. No, he is not perfect (poor 3-point shooter, not great FT shooter, too turnover prone), but definitely possibilities. Let's hope he is healthy 100% recovered, and that the ankle injury did not cause permanent damage to his game.

Also - outside of going 1-4 from the FT line, I don’t think Buchanan did anything “terrible” in that Boise game. He wasn’t great but he was ok. I didn’t watch the whole thing but as a team GW really stuggled with Boise’s D - mostly on the guards. Buchanan had 4 turnovers but Castro had 6. The team had 22 turnovers overall which was mainly a result of trying unsuccessfully to feed the bigs in the post (putting them in bad situations). It was a 6 point game at halftime but then Boise broke it open in the second half.

Buchanan started and played 29 minutes (more than anyone except Castro who had 30). he only recorded 2 shots and made one of them (1-2). Led the team in rebounding. Got to the line twice but missed 3 of 4.

 

[RUDivision]

What do you want to do about it? You and so many other people admit the problem is money to pay for players and then… still circle around to wanting to get rid of Pike.

For what? We need to either fix the fundraising problem (or have it fixed for us via revenue sharing/caps/etc) or we should frankly just give up. If by some miracle we do find a coach who can, with some consistency, take a $2mm roster and beat $10mm rosters then we aren’t going to have him for long.

We know that we can raise money under Pike! Coaches drive NIL donations. So staying put makes zero sense.

What about all the players we offered big NIL deals who would not come here and take the money because of our inept offensive schemes and poor results?


Staying status quo and hoping for better results makes zero sense.


Highly compensated coach who misses the tournament consistently and had one of the worst years in college basketball. None of the top paid coaches would survive that.

 

[dpwhite]

What about all the players we offered big NIL deals who would not come here and take the money because of our inept offensive schemes and poor results?

Oooh, who were these players?

 

[fluoxetine]

We know that we can raise money under Pike! Coaches drive NIL donations.

I assume you meant "can't"? Anyway, NIL donations are driven by fans who are motivated enough to see their school win that they pony up.

What about all the players we offered big NIL deals who would not come here and take the money because of our inept offensive schemes and poor results?

I've heard some disturbing things about the moon landing footage and I also have it on good authority that the world is flat.

 

[RUDivision]

Oooh, who were these players?

The pod discussed it ! Fonsesca and Carino wrote articles on it! I’ll assume if there are 3 separate sources there is some truth to the matter.

 

[RUDivision]

I assume you meant "can't"? Anyway, NIL donations are driven by fans who are motivated enough to see their school win that they pony up.


Yes sorry Can’t! Yes, it’s fans but those same fans have to believe in the coach and their vision . It’s clearly not the case w our current staff.

 

[fluoxetine]

The pod discussed it ! Fonsesca and Carino wrote articles on it! I’ll assume if there are 3 separate sources there is some truth to the matter.

List them then.

I've especially interested in evidence that we offered the most money but were still turned down.

 

[fluoxetine]

Yes sorry Can’t! Yes, it’s fans but those same fans have to believe in the coach and their vision . It’s clearly not the case w our current staff.

If these supposed potential donors could not be bothered to pony up in a year with a top 5 recruiting class because they had doubts about the coach, or if they are not willing to donate because of "tax rules", or for that matter if they are not willing to donate because of the coach but are also not willing to donate money to get rid of the coach... those are not donors that can realistically be relied upon. You are describing people so fickle they will jump ship at the first loss.

 

[RUDivision]

If these supposed potential donors could not be bothered to pony up in a year with a top 5 recruiting class because they had doubts about the coach, or if they are not willing to donate because of "tax rules", or for that matter if they are not willing to donate because of the coach but are also not willing to donate money to get rid of the coach... those are not donors that can realistically be relied upon. You are describing people so fickle they will jump ship at the first loss.
[/QUOTE]
Definitely possible and could be likely but unknown. What we do know is our current staff can’t get it done with donors.

Top 5 recruiting class and Pike not being able to raise funds or assemble a competent team. He had every advantage to raise money and was clearly unsuccessful. Thats more of an indictment on the staff not the fans.

 

[goru7]

is anyone willing to predict a plus 500 record...the argument here is basically whether we go 10-21 or 14-17 and that still sucks..what i am worried about is the thinking that going 14-17 means somewhat of a successful season and that really is a terrible bar to set

without nil money or some kind of dynamic change in the situation one its going to be hard to keep any player who shows promise here or to bring any new ones. its a grim situation. changing coaches without nil money is meaningless but are we setting ourselves up for perpetually 14-17 season as doing the best we can and thats okay for the fanbase

With the roster as presently constituted no objective person or even a person with only scarlet colored glasses could say it will be a 500 season . We do not have an offense that can score more than 50 points a game and Pike needs to desperately get a scorer that can put up 13 ppg and has a pulse on defense to make us competitive in games.
There is no way our defense no matter how much better we are than this past year ‘s team, will hold teams to 50 points a game or even 60 points per game.
The hopeful view is that Grant takes a huge leap, Zrno can score and shoot , hit 3’s and play some defense. Baye Fall is 6’11 inches , was a McDonsld’s all American in 2023 , and somehow after 2 years of zero at Arkansas and Kansas State , can be our rim protector and get us 6-8 ppg on dunks , lobs , and put backs.
Hope is that Buchanan can play 2 ways at this level and becomes a double digit efficient scorer and rebounder.
Finally , hope is that Lino Mark and Chris Nwuili can play and impact games as freshman.
So the hope lies on these 6 guys. No one else on the roster will be meaningfully impactful. Which leads to the pessimism and the bad thoughts of what will happen this year .
Pike has his work cut out for him but he must in my opinion get another scoring guard that is a 2 way player and must quickly get his kids to play defense like the best Rutgers teams he has had. That makes us competitive and that gives some hope. It doesn’t give us the dream of what should have been this past year because not have the # 2 and # 3 players in the upcoming NBA draft any more. That eliminates any thoughts of being elite. That is where we are.

 

[dpwhite]

Interesting, I try to read everything and listen to all the podcasts. I must have missed the one where they discussed the players who did not want to come here even though RU has had the most money on the table. All the narratives I've seen from the pod is that RU basketball doesn't have much money--so I'm curious who they outbid on and still got turned down. I'm not saying you're wrong... I'm just saying I missed it. So, who was it?

The pod discussed it ! Fonsesca and Carino wrote articles on it! I’ll assume if there are 3 separate sources there is some truth to the matter.

 

[dpwhite]

He had every advantage to raise money and was clearly unsuccessful. Thats more of an indictment on the staff not the fans.

What are the advantages he had? Very curious on this as well.

 

[darkcheck]

Interesting, I try to read everything and listen to all the podcasts. I must have missed the one where they discussed the players who did not want to come here even though RU has had the most money on the table. All the narratives I've seen from the pod is that RU basketball doesn't have much money--so I'm curious who they outbid on and still got turned down. I'm not saying you're wrong... I'm just saying I missed it. So, who was it?

It was the kid who went to vcu. He had a relationship with his former coach who’s now on staff there

 

[RUChoppin]

Your doing too much analysis here relative to the point I was making. In terms returning players who were major parts of the 2018-19 rotation, it was Geo (who played so much as a frosh out of need - he and Corey were the only playable guards on the 2017-18 team) Eugene 22 mpg), MJ who redshirted. Doorson rode the bench in 2017-18 but played a bigger role the next year -he beat Duke out.

I think folks are writing J Mike off a bit unfairly. As I said - in the 3 games Dylan missed he delivered an average of like 12 ppg and 5 apg (something like that). I’m not saying he will do that over the course of a season as lead guard but I also don’t think it’s impossible that he does ok if he’s the guy who needs to take that next step. In the best case scenerio he steps up and takes Geo’s role. Ogbole takes another step and gives us close to what MJ did as a redshirt sophomore. Buchanan deliver Eugene’s production. The incoming frosh group is a good one. The 4 returning players could all be contributors in the rotation. Your right - that was a 14 win team, but I’m making a case that with a little more luck, that team could’ve had a better season. That’s all.

You might say to me - oh but Geo, Eugene and MJ are SO much better than J Mike, Buchanan and Ogbole but that would be a Monday night quarterbacking view. Geo had a good frosh year playing the 2 in a situation where there was zero competition at guard for PT. Sophomore Geo made a lot of mistakes playing the point for the first time. He’d tell you that himself. I’m not saying junior J Mike is “better” than him, but he’s certainly more experienced at PG. After his frosh season Buchanan was being discussed as a possible NBA player. Eugene was not thought of having any elite potential following 2017-18. It’s a fair comparison at the time. That doesn’t mean Buchanan will take the next step but it’s not impossible. MJ only played 18 mpg as a sophomore - he was very foul prone. He still put up 8 ppg which may be a stretch for our centers but between Dortch, Ogbole, Fall and Ware it’s certainly possible we can be similar to that team at center. Grant is better than Thiam. I don’t care how many minutes Thiam played. Grant is still better.



Agreed, although, in fairness, under Pike, I think the only one at home was Lafayette. So hopefully we won’t have any neutral games against cupcakes. I’ll be pissed if I see one on the schedule.

The key contributors in 2018-19 were Baker, Omoruyi, Harper, Mathis, Doorson, Johnson, and Kiss. They were our only players who saw the floor at least 500 min, and then accounted for about 80% of minutes played, points, and rebounds. Only two of them were newcomers to the team, and those two were Top150 freshmen. That doesn't resemble 2024-25 to me at all.

I am generally positive toward JMike, but he has not yet shown over two years that he is going to be the type of scorer that Baker was (or that almost any of our successful guards have been under Pike). He may blossom as a junior, which would be great - but he's more distributor than scorer, and I doubt he will be in our top three scorers for next season. Jumping to 9 ppg (as you mention in a separate post) would be a big jump for him - not impossible, but not something I'd bet on.

In the 3 games you mention where Dylan was out, his lines were 9pts/3ast, 7pts/8ast, 20pts/2ast. Yes, that averages to 12.0pts/4.3ast, but that includes his best scoring game and a separate best-assist game in the averages. In the 13 games he played >20 min, he averaged 25.4 min/7.2 pts/3.1 ast (including games vs Columbia, Wagner, St. Peter's, and Monmouth).... which is probably closer to what I'd expect from him next year.

Omoruyi had elevated expectations going into 2018-19. He was often touted as the most improved player on the team during a 2017-18 season that was hampered by injury, and came out hot in 2018-19 before injuries derailed him again.

Just running through the positions, we have (newcomers in italics):
G: Baker/Mathis/Kiss vs. Davis/Francis/Mark/Powers
W/F: Omoruyi/Harper/McConnell/Thiam vs. Grant/Buchanan/Zrno/Nwuli/Ware
C: Johnson/Doorson/Carter/Doucoure vs. Ogbole/Fall/Dortch

I feel 2024-25 is probably ahead at W/F, behind at C, and slightly behind at G.

Tough to see the team being substantially better than the 2018-19 squad that went 14-17. Hanging a hat on defense is also a tough sell for me, given that most of the 2024025 team is starting at square one and have never even been on the court together before.

 

[dpwhite]

It was the kid who went to vcu. He had a relationship with his former coach who’s now on staff there

Oh ok. Thanks. So it was 1 player and it didn’t have to do with Pikes style. Thanks.

 

[-RUFAN4LIFE-]

Oh ok. Thanks. So it was 1 player and it didn’t have to do with Pikes style. Thanks.

There also was the kid that decided to return to Quinnipiac. He definitely got paid to stay.

 

[dpwhite]

There also was the kid that decided to return to Quinnipiac. He definitely got paid to stay.

I mean even that kid said he loved Pikiell and expected to play for him