I try to absorb all the news and podcasts I can and I’ve only heard one we lost even though we offered more. Good point in the post just above, technically we may have offered more to the Quin kid too
The pessimism here is way overdone
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Thanks - that's a great breakdown. But the A10 is still the A10 - last year, there were just 2 teams with a kenpom AdjD in the Top 50 nationally (led by #27 VCU), while the B10 had 11 (led by #3 MSU... with 6 programs ahead of VCU).
At this point in NCAA consolidation, anything outside the SEC/B10/B12... then the ACC/BE... is really a step down in competition. MWC/A10 are really in that next tier, and then there's a clifflike dropoff. The best teams from the former "mid-major" conferences have mostly been absorbed into better conferences at this point.
I'm hoping Buchanan is a rockstar next year - and that he's fully healed and raring to go. But he'll also be facing tougher defenses night-in and night-out than he's ever faced before, surrounded by a bunch of guys who he's just met (and who mostly have just met each other). And as you've shown, a lot of teasing of the data must go on to find even "comparable-if-you-squint-hard" competition in his first two seasons.
A couple things here. In your list of 2018-19 contributors only 3 had ever played a game for Rutgers (MJ and Kiss didn’t play the prior season). Doorson only played limited minutes. So there were 5 on the prior roster, 2 returning core rotation / starters (Geo and Eugene), a deep bench player in Doorson, and MJ and Kiss who didn’t play at all in 2017-18. This coming year - we return 2 core rotation / starters (Grant and J Mike), a bench guy in EO (played more than Doorson had) who could well start, and Bryce Dortch who could easily play the same 18 mpg that MJ did. Ok - we don’t have a Peter Kiss sit out transfer - but so what? It only seems different I think because we know now how good Geo and Eugene became.
Second - I agree with you on Davis in terms of pure scoring but I don’t think it’s fair to compare Geo’s frosh output and say - see he’s clearly so much better based on that. Geo had to log those minutes. It was guys like Mensah behind him. J Mike would’ve started alongside Corey too. Jalen Miller would’ve started probably too - sadly. Just a different circumstance. Geo was a big unknown in terms of being able to handle the point going into the 2018-19 season. So there were different concerns. It could be argued that if that team was better at ball handling they would’ve had more success. Geo and Caleb took their lumps for sure.
Finally - I never said this team would be much better than that team. I said they could turn out similar talent / ability wise and that if a few more things broke right for the 2018-19 team that could’ve been a 16/17 win team. Thats all.
Buchanan will be fine health wise. It’s the kind of injury that lingers for a couple months - not a long term concern. Like Dylan’s ankle injury.
In terms of the numbers, nobody is saying the A-10 is as good as the BIG; however, not many kids who drop 15.6 and 6.6 in their true frosh seasons of A-10 level play end up being high level busts. Prove me wrong but I don’t think you could point to too many examples - if any. Again, Noah averaged 1 ppg in 9 or so minutes at UMass - for perspective as a frosh.
i dont know why people just disregard last season as them moving on to play a new style and he couldnt get back into the lineup after the injury
What do you mean - “couldn’t get back in the line up”? He started their last game and played more minutes than everyone except Castro.
The game before that against George Mason he also played 29 minutes despite technically coming off the bench - two starters played 18 min a piece.
The game before that he scored 14 points and 7 rebounds - almost certainly only played 23 minutes in the game because he was in deep foul trouble with 4 fouls.
The game before that he actually played more minutes than everyone at 26. It was a blow out win. He was 5 for 6 from the floor.
To me - it seems like the opposite. You and others are acting like what he did the previous season didn’t happen. Yeah - we know he didn’t perform as well after the injury. that’s why he prob cost $500k and not $1.2M. He had some good games following the injury but was inconsistent. There’s certainly at least a chance we get the consistent version of him from the first 1.5 seasons.
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FYI, the guy who started when Buchanan got hurt was a 6'9" transfer from Cornell - Hansen. He stayed the nominal starter even upon Buchanan's return. GW made a separate starting line-up decision at about the same time Buchanan got hurt: They started Autry at 2G and benched Hutchison.
Hansen did not play in the last game against Boise St., by the way - either hurt or coach's decision. So Buchanan started. But as poorly as Buchanan performed post-injury, he was STILL better than Hansen after he returned: Played more minutes, was a MUCH better rebounder (2X more rpg), better overall FG%, more minutes, more ppg (7.1 ppg to 6.2 ppg), more double-digit scoring games (3 to Hansen's 2 while they both were available to play).
Choppin: Like what PSAL says on Davis: Your point about Davis is a good one, FYI ... I liked your analysis of what he did when he played 25 mpg or more - that was good. The ONE thing I might caveat to support SOME improvement by Davis is that a number of those 20+ minutes games were earlier in the season (though they WERE sprinkled throughout the season). If he averaged 7 ppg and 3 ass/g in games in which he played 20 minutes or more, in an average of 25 mpg in those games, I do not think it UNREASONABLE to hope, or even expect, Davis to improve at least a little from that level ... to 8-9 ppg, 4 ass/g? A PG who averages 8'5-9 ppg, 4 ass/g for a team averaging 67-68 ppg is not shabby - especially if he can regain some of his defensive mojo.
BTW: Totally separate issue: Where the heck to this guy Castro come from? Did NOTHING his 1st 2 seasons at Providence. Sure, GW and the A-10 is a step down - but not a HUGE step down. He just exploded, eh? Can RU for once have a player who explodes like that? My candidate for that remains Grant ... if he can increase his 3-point FG% to 35%. He was only a FR last year.
MJ and Kiss redshirted the prior season and practiced throughout the year. Pike comment during 2017-18 that Johnson probably didn't need to redshirt because he was doing so well in practices. I know you want to disregard reps/chemistry/etc that doesn't come on the court... but if that's the case, then you have to really take a closer look at the experience of Grant/Dortch/Ogbole who all have limited game experience.
Doorson was going into his 5th year in 2018-19. He'd accumulated 931 minutes across 90 games and 4 starts prior to the 2018-19 season, though he'd dealt with some injuries. He had four years of S&C and 3 years of reps with Pikiell and was 22 at that point, I believe. He was also 7'0/275, which you can't teach. Hard to compare him to anyone we have on the roster next year.
Grant had 16 starts last year and Davis had 7... yes, they are returning starters, but they averaged 5th/6th most minutes on the team last year at 18.8/18.0 respectively. Davis is the only guy on the roster who has significant playing experience under Pike. Grant has 1 season and 21 games to his name... in the 10 games where he played >20 min, he averaged 24.9min/8.6pts/4.5rb.
As far as Davis vs. Baker, though.... Davis averaged 23.1 min/g as a freshman, and also had to log those minutes. It's not like Davis was the 10th guy in the rotation... he saw the 4th most minutes on the team that year behind Omoruyi, Hyatt, and Simpson.
I'm not saying that 2024-25 can't be better than 2018-19, just that I don't see a lot of similarity between the two squads. I'm also not sold on the prospects of this upcoming roster - too many "ifs" that need to be strung together right now.
Doorson was going into his 5th year in 2018-19. He'd accumulated 931 minutes across 90 games and 4 starts prior to the 2018-19 season, though he'd dealt with some injuries. He had four years of S&C and 3 years of reps with Pikiell and was 22 at that point, I believe. He was also 7'0/275, which you can't teach. Hard to compare him to anyone we have on the roster next year.
Grant had 16 starts last year and Davis had 7... yes, they are returning starters, but they averaged 5th/6th most minutes on the team last year at 18.8/18.0 respectively. Davis is the only guy on the roster who has significant playing experience under Pike. Grant has 1 season and 21 games to his name... in the 10 games where he played >20 min, he averaged 24.9min/8.6pts/4.5rb.
As far as Davis vs. Baker, though.... Davis averaged 23.1 min/g as a freshman, and also had to log those minutes. It's not like Davis was the 10th guy in the rotation... he saw the 4th most minutes on the team that year behind Omoruyi, Hyatt, and Simpson.
I'm not saying that 2024-25 can't be better than 2018-19, just that I don't see a lot of similarity between the two squads. I'm also not sold on the prospects of this upcoming roster - too many "ifs" that need to be strung together right now.
So ... like everyone, I pull out the stuff that reinforces my biases, LOL!
I really like the part of your post I bolded. Since I saw him play several games, I felt Grant was the one likely returning player who had the potential to take a major step forward as a SO, to double digit scoring. You 10-game sample size where he got substantial playing time, though a small sample size, and though he was certainly aided by the attention on Harper and/or Bailey, lends credence to my hope, at least.
I continue to think it is not even that large a leap for Grant to average 10-11 ppg and 5-6 rpg as a SO. But improving his 3-point FG% and the consistency of that 3-point shooting will be important: How much he is able to do that may be the determinant as to the level he can attain.
I took a look at recent top 5 scorers from the A-10 in 2023-24 that transferred to major conferences for 2024-25:
16.6 pts/8.1 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 18.8 ppg/7.1 rb)
15.9 pts/6.8 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 5.9 ppg/2.5 rb)
15.2 pts/8.3 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 11.8 ppg/7.6 rb)
15.0 pts/5.3 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 6.2 pts/2.6 rb)
13.9 pts/3.5 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 9.3 pts/1.9 rb)
Hall excelled, Cross took a small step back, Brickus took a larger step back, Cohen/Brantley really fell off.
Can you get per 40min stats? Per game stats don’t seem that relevant if minutes changed significantly, and someone’s minutes going down would seem to have more to do with the quality of their own team than with level of competition.
Fun work by Choppin - and good question and worthwhile caveat by Fluox.
Josh Cohen, for example, had a MINUTES drop off to just 13 mpg for USC - His 40 minute scoring was 18+ ppg, versus 22 ppg per 40 minutes prior year at UMass ... His FG% and 2-point FG% went up by a large margin at USC. Gonna guess there was an athleticism problem that limited his minutes? Anyway, he was as much an NEC player (3 years there) as an A-10 player (just 1 year - as a 4th year playe4).
Brantley went from 35 mpg at Lasalle to 20 mpg at Okla St. . His shooting percentages (FG% and 3-point FG% actually ROSE at Okla St, in fewer minutes, His per 40 minutes scoring dropped from 16.7 ppg to 12.3 ppg, but with better efficiency (fewer FG attempts per 40 minutes).
Brickus' minutes actually only dropped from 36 mpg at Lasalle to 30 mpg at Nova. But his FG AATTEMPTS dropped from 11+ per game to 7 per game. His offensive efficiency numbers went up a lot also: FG%, 3-point FG% and 2-point FG% all rose for Nova. But his per 40 minute scoring dropped from 14 ppg to 9.3 ppg ... due to many fewerr shot attempts, despite starting every game and averaging 30 mpg.
Brantley and Brickus were guards, by the way - small guards. Brickus was a PG - and played that role for Nova, I suppose.
What the stats show is that the A-10 SKILLS actually translate in terms of shooting efficiencies ... but the minutes may or may not depending on the athleticism, the defense, the depth of the teams they join.
I use sports-reference.com, FYI: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/
Josh Cohen, for example, had a MINUTES drop off to just 13 mpg for USC - His 40 minute scoring was 18+ ppg, versus 22 ppg per 40 minutes prior year at UMass ... His FG% and 2-point FG% went up by a large margin at USC. Gonna guess there was an athleticism problem that limited his minutes? Anyway, he was as much an NEC player (3 years there) as an A-10 player (just 1 year - as a 4th year playe4).
Brantley went from 35 mpg at Lasalle to 20 mpg at Okla St. . His shooting percentages (FG% and 3-point FG% actually ROSE at Okla St, in fewer minutes, His per 40 minutes scoring dropped from 16.7 ppg to 12.3 ppg, but with better efficiency (fewer FG attempts per 40 minutes).
Brickus' minutes actually only dropped from 36 mpg at Lasalle to 30 mpg at Nova. But his FG AATTEMPTS dropped from 11+ per game to 7 per game. His offensive efficiency numbers went up a lot also: FG%, 3-point FG% and 2-point FG% all rose for Nova. But his per 40 minute scoring dropped from 14 ppg to 9.3 ppg ... due to many fewerr shot attempts, despite starting every game and averaging 30 mpg.
Brantley and Brickus were guards, by the way - small guards. Brickus was a PG - and played that role for Nova, I suppose.
What the stats show is that the A-10 SKILLS actually translate in terms of shooting efficiencies ... but the minutes may or may not depending on the athleticism, the defense, the depth of the teams they join.
I use sports-reference.com, FYI: https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/
Per 100 possessions, to adjust a bit for pace:
33.3 pts/16.2 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 31.0 ppg/11.7 rb)
31.8 pts/13.7 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 27.1 ppg/11.5 rb)
29.2 pts/15.8 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 23.1 ppg/15.0 rb)
24.8 pts/8.8 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 17.1 pts/7.3 rb)
22.5 pts/5.6 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 19.6 pts/3.9 rb)
So everyone went down a bit when adjusting for possessions, some more than others. The reduction in minutes, though, can be indicative of several things (as lion mentioned) - athleticism, defense, changing role, etc.
33.3 pts/16.2 rb - Keyshawn Hall (transfer to UCF/B12, 31.0 ppg/11.7 rb)
31.8 pts/13.7 rb - Josh Cohen (transfer to USC/B1G, 27.1 ppg/11.5 rb)
29.2 pts/15.8 rb - Matt Cross (transfer to SMU/ACC, 23.1 ppg/15.0 rb)
24.8 pts/8.8 rb - Khalil Brantley (transfer to OSU/B12, 17.1 pts/7.3 rb)
22.5 pts/5.6 rb - Jhamir Brickus (transfer to Nova/BE, 19.6 pts/3.9 rb)
So everyone went down a bit when adjusting for possessions, some more than others. The reduction in minutes, though, can be indicative of several things (as lion mentioned) - athleticism, defense, changing role, etc.
Went back one more year, for funsies.
2022-23 players who went to a major conference team in 2023-24, adj for 100 possessions (only 4 in the Top 20 scorers):
31.6 pts/12.2 rb - Tyler Burton (transfer to Nova/BE, 18.7 pts/15.2 rb)
27.9 pts/9.9 rb - Ishmael Leggett (transfer to Pitt/ACC, 25.7 pts/11.5 rb)
31.7 pts/16.1 rb - Josh Oduro (transfer to Prov/BE, 30.8 pts/14.5 rb)
21.3 pts/4.2 rb - Ace Baldwin (transfer to Pitt/B1G, 23.2 pts/4.7 rb)
Seems like most of these top-scoring A10 players saw slight dropback moving to a major conference from a 100-possession perspective, though their minutes may have been limited for other reasons.
Buchanan's per 100 stats:
2024-25: 22.1 pts/12.1 rb
Career: 25.4 pts/12.1 rb
Based on the other A10 players above, might be looking at 19-22 pts/9-11 rb per 100 possessions. For comparison, last year Lathan Sommerville was 22.4 pts/11.3 rb per 100 possessions and Dylan Grant was 18.1 pts/10.5 rb.
2022-23 players who went to a major conference team in 2023-24, adj for 100 possessions (only 4 in the Top 20 scorers):
31.6 pts/12.2 rb - Tyler Burton (transfer to Nova/BE, 18.7 pts/15.2 rb)
27.9 pts/9.9 rb - Ishmael Leggett (transfer to Pitt/ACC, 25.7 pts/11.5 rb)
31.7 pts/16.1 rb - Josh Oduro (transfer to Prov/BE, 30.8 pts/14.5 rb)
21.3 pts/4.2 rb - Ace Baldwin (transfer to Pitt/B1G, 23.2 pts/4.7 rb)
Seems like most of these top-scoring A10 players saw slight dropback moving to a major conference from a 100-possession perspective, though their minutes may have been limited for other reasons.
Buchanan's per 100 stats:
2024-25: 22.1 pts/12.1 rb
Career: 25.4 pts/12.1 rb
Based on the other A10 players above, might be looking at 19-22 pts/9-11 rb per 100 possessions. For comparison, last year Lathan Sommerville was 22.4 pts/11.3 rb per 100 possessions and Dylan Grant was 18.1 pts/10.5 rb.
Some interesting work from RUChoppin, there.
Look ... there are certainly a lot of uncertainties with how transfers from lower conferences translate to P5 conferences. But THIS work seems to indicate that there is a REASONABLE transfer of skills and performance from the A-10 to P% conferences. Which should give some hope.
Next up: NEC and AEC scorers ... maybe I'll take a look at that, though may not get to it until Tuesday.
Look ... there are certainly a lot of uncertainties with how transfers from lower conferences translate to P5 conferences. But THIS work seems to indicate that there is a REASONABLE transfer of skills and performance from the A-10 to P% conferences. Which should give some hope.
Next up: NEC and AEC scorers ... maybe I'll take a look at that, though may not get to it until Tuesday.
Question is whether a player roughly equivalent offensively to Sommerville/Grant from 2024-25 is enough to be the primary scorer for us next year.
Going by the comparisons above.... Lathan's 22.4 pts/100 possessions worked out to 15.6 pts/40 min.... which would have been roughly 11.7 pts per 30 min. Grant's 18.1 pts/100 poss worked out to 12.6 pts/40 min... which would work out to roughly 9.5 pts per 30 min. Rough estimate would put Buchanan somewhere in that range (9.5-11.5 pts/g). Hopefully he defies that estimation.
I'm really hoping Zrno's game translates to the B1G, or that a couple of these freshmen are high-level performers.
Also hope Grant actually improves - so his efficiency goes up along with his minutes - which would take him higher on scoring and rebounding than just scaling up his minutes/possessions ... he was just a FR, heading towards SO - so improvement is certainly possible.
FYI: Took a quick look at the AEC top 10 scorers from 2023-24. Only ONE transferred UPWARD at all - and only ONE to a P5.
Dion Brown: Went from UMBC to Boston College, his per 100 points/g went from 31.5 down to 17.5 ... his per 40 minutes points went from 23.6 to 11.7 ... his minutes went from 32 to 25.6.
Gross-Bullock transferred down from Lasalle to Bryant a couple of years prior - and his scoring and per 100 posession points went up quite a bit after 3 years at Lasalle ... so a big jump upward when he dropped a level.
Looked at 2022-23 in the AEC also. Only 2 of the top 10 scorers transferred at all, and both went to the A-qo, not P5. Drumgoole had pretty large drop offs in FG%, 3-point%, 2-poojn %, and though distinct, less drop off in per 100 possessions.
My point? Buchanan's abilities are FAR more likely to translate to the Big 10 than are Francis' abilities.
I said frosh. Find me a kid who put up anything close to 15.6 ppg and 6.6 rpg in their first year of collegiate ball starting in a league the caliber of the A-10 (not a low major) who transferred up and didn’t pan out as a decent player at the next level. 8 points as a frosh is very different from 15.6. And good efficiency numbers too.
Noah barely saw the floor as a frosh - 9 mpg. The original comment I made was simply about coming in off the bat and putting up big numbers like Buchanan did in the first year of college. My only point is that to be able to do that in a league like the A-10 means (at reasonable confidence level) that you probably have the raw talent that has a decent chance to translate up. Not many guys do that.
Considering he picked up right where he left off as a sophomore until he got hurt, I’m not sure why the default assumption would be to assume the injury had nothing to do with his inconsistency in the second half of the year. He was up and down with both his production and playing time suggestive of the pattern you would typically see in the first couple months rehabbing from a high ankle injury (I assume it was a sprain or he wouldn’t have returned). It had nothing to do with the opponent - some of his better post injury games were against better A-10 opponents like George Mason, @ St Bonnies and @ St Joes. It was up and down.
That’s true too but I suppose it still means you weren’t good enough to be featured in the way you were previously in the A -10.
My point with the frosh thing is that guys grow within systems (or they did before NIL). You wouldn’t expect a kid who developed in a program incrementally over several years to instantly just transition into a new system. Buchanan proved he could do that just fine handling the transition from HS to A-10. What he did as a frosh is impressive. Sure - I guess it’s possible It was a one year fluke. That seems less likely though in my opinion than that he played through the rehabbing with good days and bad days in terms of inflammation level.
Here's what I think:
Guys who top programs want as bench players, we take as starters. Guys that would start a level down, we take a bench players. For years, we've wanted transfers from A-10 level schools or higher. We got two and it's not good enough.
We all know Pikes failed last year... but everyone is saying "with two NBA draft picks" he failed and then acting like he's expected to get them again. He didn't fail because of the draft picks. He failed because all the money was bookmarked for those draft picks and no one else. I know Richie has said the other money went away... without money, I'm not sure what you expected him to get.
This year, I have no idea. I tend to lean with the people who think it's a 7-8 win Big Ten season and not a complete disaster. There are players here who fit specific roles, so Pikes should be able to figure out rotations sooner. It doesn't appear they dumped a million on one or two guys, they tried to build a whole roster. I think they key will be interior defense. They aren't going to put up gaudy offensive numbers, but beyond last year, when have they ever? It will be finding a way to win 67-64 every night. If it works, RU will be fine. If it doesn't?
Guys who top programs want as bench players, we take as starters. Guys that would start a level down, we take a bench players. For years, we've wanted transfers from A-10 level schools or higher. We got two and it's not good enough.
We all know Pikes failed last year... but everyone is saying "with two NBA draft picks" he failed and then acting like he's expected to get them again. He didn't fail because of the draft picks. He failed because all the money was bookmarked for those draft picks and no one else. I know Richie has said the other money went away... without money, I'm not sure what you expected him to get.
This year, I have no idea. I tend to lean with the people who think it's a 7-8 win Big Ten season and not a complete disaster. There are players here who fit specific roles, so Pikes should be able to figure out rotations sooner. It doesn't appear they dumped a million on one or two guys, they tried to build a whole roster. I think they key will be interior defense. They aren't going to put up gaudy offensive numbers, but beyond last year, when have they ever? It will be finding a way to win 67-64 every night. If it works, RU will be fine. If it doesn't?
It's rare in general for any freshman to come onto any team and be a star, at least among those that aren't projected one-and-dones. I'm not saying that Buchanan doesn't have a lot of talent. My feeling is that just because you are killing it in the A10, that doesn't mean you are going to have the same (or more) success when the competition level ratchets up considerably.
He very well may, and I hope he does. I'm just not expecting him to put up 15/7 here like he did at GW his freshman year - he's going to be going up against much better defenses in a league that has traditionally had strong wing play (and generally has deep NIL pockets to bolster rosters).
He averaged 17/10 in his senior year of HS, 15/7 as a freshman in the A10... which could become 13/6 in the B1G. Or it could be noticeably higher or lower. Hoping for the best, but I'm not hanging my hat on him carrying us this year.
I’m definitely not expecting 15.6 / 6.6 either but he’s also two years older, stronger and more experienced now in a collegiate setting.
My only point was that 12/13ish / 5 is reasonable to at least hope for. When I say hope - you can always “hope” for anything, but in this case - that outcome seems more likely than complete bust and as it at least close to as likely as 7 and 5 type numbers. In contrast to say Francis who I think is a big long shot to be anything more than a utility reserve next year at best even if we don’t add another guard. I just don’t expect his D or efficiency to be good enough at the BIG level.
7-8 big ten wins isnt fine...seems like you are okay with the status quo of the previous 2 seasons, if RU is somewhat competitve you are content..so Pike goes 7-13/15-16 and then what happens....4 years without a ncaa bid and 3 straight seasons sub 500
the problem that 7-8 big 10 wins and 15-16 is the actually ceiling for next year...that is the scary part...the floor is a seton hall type season..the inbetween like me and some others are saying still only gets us to 4-5 big 10 wins and 12-19..that seems the most LIKELY and most PREDICTED scenario given the dearth of talent
lets face it Pikes needs a miracle season...and everyone here would be happy to be proven wrong..the track record of the past 3 seasons indicates Pike is running out of golden nugget mojo
I didn't say it was fine. I said I didn't think it would be a complete disaster. What I think is Rutgers athletics needs to support hoops. I think they need more than 3 mil rev share and/or there has to be a concerted effort to help Pikes fundraise for NIL. I don't think any coach who comes here will be worth their salt unless they get more than 3 mil in rev share, so I think the realistic candidates will be worse than what we have now. I think this is an institutional issue, not a Pikes issue.
We really have no idea as Pike moved fast. He wanted him and we added him right away. Again - this wasn’t the Francis situation. If we wavered, he 100% would’ve been picked up somewhere else. Look at who PSU has in the pipeline. Think they couldn’t use a kid like Buchanan? Again - Francis I completely agree with every bit of the negativity. Nobody wanted him because he’s shown nothing to this point to demonstrate he could succeed at the next level without a major year over year jump.
But Buchanan just isn’t that. 3/4 of his college career shows X. Then following injury event the remaining 1/4 doesn’t go quite as well, and you and some others seem to be convinced that the first 75% worth of the data means less than the most recent 25%. You’ve offered several explanations to support the idea that the final 25% is representative of what we should expect but none of what you offered seems more likely than that he was simply slowed down a bit working his way back from the ankle injury. You suggested his drop off might be related to higher level of competition - but he didn’t have that issue as a frosh. Not only that, but his up and down performance in the second half of the season doesn’t even correlate with the difficulty of the opponent. @ GM was one of GE’s toughest games for example - he dropped 15 and 8 on 5 of 5 shooting in that game. He also did well @ St Bonnies (among the second have games, one of the more difficult ones).
You also keep making it sound like he couldn’t break the rotation when he returned which was not the case. He played plenty he just wasn’t nearly as efficient or explosive - again, I’m not sure why the return from injury would be dismissed as unrelated.
Lastly - the argument that GW stunk in 2023-24 and got better because Buchanan played less in 2024-25 is also just silly. GW was 11-3 following the game Buchanan got injured in. They went 10-10 the rest of the way vs a collapse late last season but having a better center is certainly more the explanation than anything. Castro didn’t replace Buchanan in the line up. Plus Buchanan played more than half the game 7 of the 8 post injury wins he participated in (he only played 17 min in the blow out win over UMass). He had huge games in 3 of the later wins @ St Bonnie’s and the 2 Fordham games.
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i agree with you there and unfortunately it looks like the NIL handed RU the death penalty sending it back to A10 status just as we were seeing light at the end of the tunnel. I do not see anyway out of this without catching lightning in a bottle
i would think he would be in high demand by reading some of your analysis of him...you are saying rutgers somehow delivered a coup here and no one else was paying attention
No - I’m not. I’m saying he was a smart pick up based on the circumstances. For the cost, the odds of him panning out are reasonably high. That’s all I’m saying. You seem to be assuming the opposite which I don’t understand. Your acting like the default expectation should be another Austin Williams and I just don’t see that.
I agree with you..its a smart pick up given what we could get and whats out there...i like the pickup, i just feel some are expecting too much from him. He showed plenty of ability his freshmen year, I am concerned about what happened after the injury and why GW didnt fight to keep a player who was so good as a freshmen and to me it matters that there were not other suitors apparently..why
The problem is that last season was the lightning in a bottle.
Ace and Dylan on the team with seemingly minimal % of Rutgers money.
People didn't want to listen to just how much of an advantage Rutgers had last year.
This year is showing what a team of just Rutgers money can put together.
A #3 option last year - now has to be our #1 option.
This is a top down issue it’s not a simple matter of pike getting better at fundraising or finding an whale of a donor
You first need a president that supports athletics in general, you then need an AD that is creative and forward thinking as to how to create a competitive product in both of the revenue sports and support the programs from an NIL standpoint… probably someone willing to roll their sleeves up and find funding for both programs themselves to get us off the ground… finally you need a coach with charisma and character that fits the landscape college athletics demand
I know you didn’t mean it to sound like a 7-8 win season was acceptable but I’m afraid the school will consider that acceptable and not the failure that it would be now 4 years removed from a tournament bid if that were to happen
If schiano were to miss a bowl game 4 years in a row it wouldn’t be a discussion
We have no idea what GW did or didn’t offer him or if Buchanan even wanted to stay. Maybe he just felt after the injury that he could use a change of scenery. It’s not like GW landed some great replacement for him in the portal or anything.
In terms of no other suitors, I’m not sure where you are getting this from. If your taking it from negativity on the podcasts, those guys don’t know either. There is no transparency on any of this. All assumptions.
Buchanan accepted our offer very early but there were Tweets before that saying he was hearing from Miss State, Butler and Providence. There is almost no chance he would still be sitting in the portal right now if we hadn’t landed him immediately following his visit.
I don’t think it’s expecting that much to think there is a realistic chance he can contribute 12-13 points and 5 rebounds at Rutgers given his numbers from 1.5 seasons pre-injury. That would be a modest step down from his frosh season after 2 more years of experience and off season development. You can worry, I guess about whether he’ll just never be the same following the injury but I’d assume if that was a likely outcome he’d have had surgery. Lots of injuries take a couple months to heal from 100%.
Much easier to make a bowl game than the tournament. You can lose 55% of your games against FBS teams (and 66% of your conference games) and still make a bowl game.
Almost 2/3 of FBS teams made a bowl game last year. That's be like expanding the NCAA tournament from 68 to 230.
If Greg missed a bowl game going 5-7 every year for four years, there'd be a lot of talk about the schedule and how he needs more support. Some fans might want him fired, but he's dug in here and they'll never get him out until he retires.
We went 5-7 and made the Orange bowl four seasons ago. Post season play in football is almost a participation trophy at this point.
Gator bowl during Covid year but yes
My point is there’s an embrace for average and mediocre here
