This news may make the BIG shutdown look premature

[cohwx]

There is a growing body of evidence that a significant portion of the population has some level of T-cell immunity to COVID-19 due to exposure to previous viruses. The result would be that we don't need to get anywhere near the original 60-80% infection rate number that has been thrown around before things would die out.

• This fits with the anecdotal evidence both that only about 15-25% of a population becomes infected before the rate of spread plummets (Diamond Princess, USS Teddy Roosevelt, NYC, Sweden)
  
  
• It also fits with how COVID has been especially brutal on the very elderly, because T Cell function declines with age.

We will see.

There have been some occurrences that say "hold on" regarding your first point. I mentioned a couple in the big thread. One was a fishing vessel that went out and almost everyone (like 100 out of 110 or something like that) got infected. The other is prisons where very high percentages get infected. If there was really a "magic herd immunity" that kicked in once about 25% of people got infected, that wouldn't be happening.

More likely, to me, is that hard hit places like NYC have about 25% of the population already infected, removing them from the transmission chain. Then there is some unknown percentage of people who have some natural level of immunity. No one really knows what that is, but lets say 25% (which seems high given the cases I mentioned). That would bring NYC to 50%. Then add in the effect of the social distancing, mask wearing, etc which is hard to quantify but let's say it's equivalent to another 25%. That would total up to 75% which is generally what most estimates say is needed for true herd immunity in a community. This would explain the low rates of occurrence currently in places like NY, NJ.

The big "but" though is if you relax social distancing and mask wearing, suddenly you're at 50% and that could start transmission chains going. Not as effectively as back in Feb/March, but still possibly enough to fill hospitals again.

As I said...we will see!

 

[cohwx]

True, but it seems that they got it under control rather quickly. One university we are watching is Rochester Institute of Technology. They have 15-20,000 students. They went back to campus. At least from what we can see from news and social media, they have things under control. Sixty students tested positive on the way in and they were quarantined. RIT is not a huge party/frat school, so their results may differ. It seems the party/frat schools are running into trouble.
Can there be people gathered together if they adhere to mask requirements without an outbreak? We shall see.

Sixty RIT students test positive for COVID before arrival on campus; more than 12,000 tested

Sixty students were blocked from circulating on the Rochester Institute of Technology campus because of positive COVID-19 tests.

www.democratandchronicle.com

RIT to begin random COVID-19 testing

HENRIETTA, N.Y. (WROC) — Beginning on Monday, the Rochester Institute of Technology will randomly select students to test for COVID-19. “If you are selected for surveillance testing, you will recei…

www.news10.com

Living in the Rochester area, we are definitely following this very closely. Case rates in the county have been pretty low for a while now (10-30 per day). Reports from the campus indicates students are wearing masks but not really practicing social distancing. Not sure about the parties.

RIT is supposedly going to be testing wastewater from the various dorms/apartment complexes to see if they can identify potential covid hotspots before people become symptomatic. Good to hear they'll also be doing the random testing, though I really don't know how good the self-administered tests are.

 

[Knight Shift]

Living in the Rochester area, we are definitely following this very closely. Case rates in the county have been pretty low for a while now (10-30 per day). Reports from the campus indicates students are wearing masks but not really practicing social distancing. Not sure about the parties.

RIT is supposedly going to be testing wastewater from the various dorms/apartment complexes to see if they can identify potential covid hotspots before people become symptomatic. Good to hear they'll also be doing the random testing, though I really don't know how good the self-administered tests are.

We were impressed with RIT and the campus. We lived near Corning for a couple of years. Western NY is a nice place to live.

 

[Caliknight]

I’m not gonna lie. I thought it was a crazy idea but the numbers all point in the same direction. We are basically at the same death per Capita rate as they are. Other countries are now catching up to both of us. Still not sure why NY, NJ, MA, CT and even RI have such crazy high death rates. I’m sure that will all come out later.

We know why. In NJ and NY case they literally did the worst thing possible. They sent known Covid positive people back to their nursing homes to infect others in the nursing homes. The death rates for people in those age groups and in those facilities is incredible. I wouldn’t be sleeping easy if I was a a Gov of those states or in those states and had a hand in those decisions.

 

[cohwx]

We were impressed with RIT and the campus. We lived near Corning for a couple of years. Western NY is a nice place to live.

Yeah, it's nice for a while. But we've been up here for 17 years and I've run out of tolerance for upstate winters. Summers are definitely nice though. Corning area is a little better, not as much snow (about 100" average where we are).

 

[vkj91]

Regardless of any new developments or if other conferences eventually fold, B1G threw in the towel way to early.

 

[RUaMoose]

wait
what?
this isn't the plan!!!

we require chaos!!

Corona Bros aren’t happy

 

[King of S]

The only problem with his theory is that once you get it does not mean you ar immune. People are now getting a 2nd time. Not a lot of data to work on that front but one you lose you antibodies which I think is a couple months you are fair game again

One person allegedly said got Covid twice. Please.

 

[King of S]

And the show goes on....https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-to-be-played-as-scheduled-after-2020-season-with-no-plans-for-spring-2021/?fbclid=IwAR3eK1kexxJZT9pXt_Mix2OgKD7cnJjm9gWHwoxBTcnvxsApTz-7IcEPmUQ

 

[RUinPAC10land]

Rates are starting to drop significantly. LA, which was not long ago a hot spot, went from 350/1,000 infections two weeks ago to 211 this past week.

Seeing similar things in other states that had higher numbers as of recent.

There is no question that we are seeing the last of Covid 19. What it will do in the future is open for discussion, but Covid 19 is no longer threat in Ca. Orange Co. schools are strongly considering going back after Labor Day. Film shoots are starting and there will be in dining eating very shortly.

I have no idea why the LAUSD, Burbank, LCUSD, Pasadena USD, etc. did not consider opening the school year a month later like NJ schools. It would have bought more time if a vaccine (that's safe for children) is discovered.

 

[Greg2020]

That's not the same. That's 40% of tests, not 40% of the population. There are 1.4mm people in the Bronx and another 2.2mm people in Queens. Neither borough has had anywhere near the number of cases a 40% rate would work out to.

no it was 40 percent of random antibody tests, not people who felt sick

 

[RutgersChow]

“I think something interesting may evolve in the weeks and months ahead,” said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, in a note. “I think it is entirely possible that USA COVID-19 cases crash to sub-10,000 in September.”

“The US is soon becoming one of the safest places in the World. And if this is true, capital will also want to seek the US,” which means “stocks rise further,” Lee said. from CNBC

Another expert, the head of Fundstrat Global Investors?- over 2.5 million active cases to under 10,000 in six weeks. OK, I'll take the odds against that. I'd expect him to be working for the administration pretty soon.

 

[RUinBoston]

“I think something interesting may evolve in the weeks and months ahead,” said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, in a note. “I think it is entirely possible that USA COVID-19 cases crash to sub-10,000 in September.”

“The US is soon becoming one of the safest places in the World. And if this is true, capital will also want to seek the US,” which means “stocks rise further,” Lee said. from CNBC

LOL. First time watching CNBC?

They'll put literally anyone on there to make literally any kind of prediction.

 

[bac2therac]

Maybe blow up is the wrong word, but almost every day is a new article for a different university who shut things down after an outbreak.

Are they even sick

 

[RUnTeX]

Are they even sick

If some are asymptomatic carriers and can transmit to others, is that not still a cause for concern as a campus and surrounding community?

 

[ArminRU]

Are they even sick

Probably. Look at our football team as an example. The bigger concern is the community spread, obviously.

 

[Caliknight]

Except they are nowhere close to herd immunity. Please don’t post misinformation.

You’re clearlt misnformed. I suggest you find new sources to educate yourself.

 

[Caliknight]

If some are asymptomatic carriers and can transmit to others, is that not still a cause for concern as a campus and surrounding community?

That is far less of a concern than originally thought.

 

[ArminRU]

You’re clearlt misnformed. I suggest you find new sources to educate yourself.

The last official report from the Sweden government said that roughly 6% of the population had antibodies.

Around 6% in Sweden have developed COVID-19 antibodies - Swedish Health Agency

Around 6 percent of people in Sweden have developed COVID-19 antibodies, a study by the country's Health Agency showed on Thursday.

www.reuters.com

 

[NotInRHouse]

It's pretty simple. Most of the governors in the northeast states and MI mishandled the nursing home population in the spring. Sweden didn't do a good job with their elderly either which inflated their death rate in the first couple of months as well.

Maine is a good counterpoint. It has the highest average age for its population in the US, and very limited hospital resources so there was a lot of risk of them being overwhelmed. Instead, they have come through this very well and Gov Mills should be commended.

Maine is also not a very dense state and is pretty isolated especially considering the Canadian border closed down pretty quick. NYC/NJ is where much of the world is flying into and at the heart of the country's economy and hugely popular region,. Aside from outbreaks at meatpacking plants in the Midwest most rural states had decent outcomes.

 

[NotInRHouse]

I think NJ has developed a some herd immunity. With the amount of non social distancing going on and people travelling to different states and not isolating when coming back, our numbers are extremely low.

NY and NJ did the hard work early. I don't know that it's herd immunity especially considering we now know reinfection can happen. I think it's that we mostly shut things down at the height and now barring someone coming here from FL and god forbid spreading it, we should be on a decent path.

 

[Caliknight]

37/100,000. Lowest in Europe. That's herd immunity after not locking down.

Sweden is developing herd immunity, some of the country’s experts claim, but the figures say otherwise

Sweden has an overall COVID-related death rate of 57.12 per 100,000, which is the ninth highest in the world, according to Johns Hopkins University

www.marketwatch.com

 

[ru66]

LOL. First time watching CNBC?

They'll put literally anyone on there to make literally any kind of prediction.

 

[ru66]

Sorry to disappoint you. I m able to read all sources with an open mind- maybe you're not--- but in any event the statistics quoted that were reported as becoming good news were from John Hopkins. Not from Lee

 

[RUInsanity]

Sorry to disappoint you. I m able to read all sources with an open mind- maybe you're not--- but in any event the statistics quoted that were reported as becoming good news were from John Hopkins. Not from Lee

Please post the statistics from Hopkins which your are referencing.

Also - as is the case with this board, most just pay attention to the headlines and the OP instead of looking at the details.

Tom Lee's comments were referring to daily new cases. Currently we are at 35K plus new COVID cases per day in the US. He is projecting that this will drop to the 10K range (per day) in September. He is basing this in trending data from June/July when many places agreed to some form of shut down. There are a significant number of variables that would drive this number. For instance if everything completely opens up, the trending will increase.

and for those projecting that Herd Immunity is somewhere around 25%.....that means over 80 million infections in the US......we are currently at ~6 million.

 

[czxqa]

no it was 40 percent of random antibody tests, not people who felt sick

Tests. Not populations. OP's point was 40% of the population. So if you have 1.3mm people living in the Bronx, 40% of that is 520k. Roughly 50% of cases are asymptomatic based on all the evidence we've seen to date. That would mean if 40% of the ppl in Bronx were infected, you would have 260,000 symptomatic COVID cases in just one borough. Queens, with 2.23mm ppl, would have had another 446,000 cases. That's already over 700,000 symptomatic cases and we haven't even looked at Manhattan, Brooklyn or Staten Island yet.
Total confirmed cases in New York STATE are 430,774 right now. No way the city has had 2mm symptomatic cases. The hospitals would have been overwhelmed.

 

[Greg2020]

Tests. Not populations. OP's point was 40% of the population. So if you have 1.3mm people living in the Bronx, 40% of that is 520k. Roughly 50% of cases are asymptomatic based on all the evidence we've seen to date. That would mean if 40% of the ppl in Bronx were infected, you would have 260,000 symptomatic COVID cases in just one borough. Queens, with 2.23mm ppl, would have had another 446,000 cases. That's already over 700,000 symptomatic cases and we haven't even looked at Manhattan, Brooklyn or Staten Island yet.
Total confirmed cases in New York STATE are 430,774 right now. No way the city has had 2mm symptomatic cases. The hospitals would have been overwhelmed.

Incorrect, plenty of people have symptoms and aren't hospitalized. A random sampling is a random sampling. Are you one of those guys who also says polling data is bad for elections because they didn't survey everyone? Random samplings are designed to give you a close range.

 

[ru66]

I'm not your personal assistant--go find the article yourself on MSNBC--hint it has to do with markets setting records and why

 

[czxqa]

Incorrect, plenty of people have symptoms and aren't hospitalized. A random sampling is a random sampling. Are you one of those guys who also says polling data is bad for elections because they didn't survey everyone? Random samplings are designed to give you a close range.

You're arguing apples to oranges, and by the way since you bring up polling, every poll for the last Presidential election was what? WRONG.
When you extrapolate the sample out to the whole population, and the number doesn't make sense, like 5mm+ positives in NY state alone, either your math is bad or your data is. You have to go out and do more tests, not stubbornly stick to an irrational projection that none of the doctors or scientists are even making.

 

[letitrip2]

One person allegedly said got Covid twice. Please.

Amazing to read this - one can almost feel the joy in your words as you wrote it. And by the way your info is totally fake.

 

[Greg2020]

You're arguing apples to oranges, and by the way since you bring up polling, every poll for the last Presidential election was what? WRONG.
When you extrapolate the sample out to the whole population, and the number doesn't make sense, like 5mm+ positives in NY state alone, either your math is bad or your data is. You have to go out and do more tests, not stubbornly stick to an irrational projection that none of the doctors or scientists are even making.

Wrong the polling was correct. You don't know what a margin of error is. Yes, there were probably 5 million people in NY state who had coronavirus. THE DOCTORS AND Scientists themselves have estimated that we only caught between 1/10 and 1 / 20 the amount of cases back in March-May. That puts us exactly at around that 5 million number. Additionally, this was a study done by SCIENTISTS from the NY Health department. Maybe do some research on statistics and on the antibody survey conducted by the experts before you come in here and spit absolute nonsense. 5 million positives in NY state would be 25 percent of the state. The top modeler during the pandemic thinks NY state has had 23 percent of its citizens infected. So against your 5 million number looks close to the mark.

 

[czxqa]

Wrong the polling was correct. You don't know what a margin of error is. Yes, there were probably 5 million people in NY state who had coronavirus. THE DOCTORS AND Scientists themselves have estimated that we only caught between 1/10 and 1 / 20 the amount of cases back in March-May. That puts us exactly at around that 5 million number. Additionally, this was a study done by SCIENTISTS from the NY Health department. Maybe do some research on statistics and on the antibody survey conducted by the experts before you come in here and spit absolute nonsense. 5 million positives in NY state would be 25 percent of the state. The top modeler during the pandemic thinks NY state has had 23 percent of its citizens infected. So against your 5 million number looks close to the mark.

23%><40% in any universe. You're just speculating and playing with numbers, are either too stubborn or too arrogant to acknowledge it, and if you truly believe that 40% to 50% of New Yorkers contracted the virus and aren't just passing your time arguing with someone on the internet, then you're living in a fantasy land. Either that, or you're just the kind of jerk who likes to fight with people. So since the Yankees game is starting, like Lotto, I'll end this with a

 

[Greg2020]

23%><40% in any universe. You're just speculating and playing with numbers, are either too stubborn or too arrogant to acknowledge it, and if you truly believe that 40% to 50% of New Yorkers contracted the virus and aren't just passing your time arguing with someone on the internet, then you're living in a fantasy land. Either that, or you're just the kind of jerk who likes to fight with people. So since the Yankees game is starting, like Lotto, I'll end this with a

20 something percent in New York State. The Bronx had it worse than much of the rest of the state. Not every community is the same Maybe start making sense and then we can continue the discussion. I wasn't just piecing numbers together, I am using data provided by disease experts from NY DOH. Read data and weep

COVID-19 Projections | US | New York

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.

covid19-projections.com

COVID-19 Projections | US | NY | New York City

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.

covid19-projections.com

COVID-19 Projections | US | NY | Nassau

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.

covid19-projections.com

COVID-19 Projections | US | NY | Suffolk

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.

covid19-projections.com

COVID-19 Projections | US | NY | Westchester

We take a data-driven approach rooted in epidemiology to forecast infections, deaths, and recovery timelines of the COVID-19 / coronavirus epidemic in the US and around the world.

covid19-projections.com

 

[RUInsanity]

I'm not your personal assistant--go find the article yourself on MSNBC--hint it has to do with markets setting records and why

You posted the reference. But then again just another typical lazy response from an anti thinker.

RU66 ehh? Hope that doesn't mean what I think it means.

 

[RutgersChow]

You're arguing apples to oranges, and by the way since you bring up polling, every poll for the last Presidential election was what? WRONG.
When you extrapolate the sample out to the whole population, and the number doesn't make sense, like 5mm+ positives in NY state alone, either your math is bad or your data is. You have to go out and do more tests, not stubbornly stick to an irrational projection that none of the doctors or scientists are even making.

I'm not sure the polls were wrong. While they predicted a Clinton victory, I believe the margin of error was 4%. Not sure, but I think Trump won within that margin of error meaning the polls were not wrong. Am I right?

 

[ru66]

You posted the reference. But then again just another typical lazy response from an anti thinker.

RU66 ehh? Hope that doesn't mean what I think it means.

Sounds like you are the lazy one--and stop trying to be a jerk off bully---anti thinker my ass--and try something more novel in your attacks--I just hate dumb ass phonies

 

[Barnaby&Neill]

“I think something interesting may evolve in the weeks and months ahead,” said Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, in a note. “I think it is entirely possible that USA COVID-19 cases crash to sub-10,000 in September.”

“The US is soon becoming one of the safest places in the World. And if this is true, capital will also want to seek the US,” which means “stocks rise further,” Lee said. from CNBC

I’m sure it’s been mentioned here, but Tom Lee is sometimes called a ‘perma-bull.’ Eternal bullishness and optimism is sort of his brand—and that brand and reputation has earned him a permanent fixture on CNBC and probably accelerated his career and earnings; doesn’t mean he’ll be wrong (as long as I’ve been following, he’s often been right when it comes to markets), just means you have to understand when listening to him that he is essentially a paid optimist.

 

[RU#1fan]

Yeah, it's nice for a while. But we've been up here for 17 years and I've run out of tolerance for upstate winters. Summers are definitely nice though. Corning area is a little better, not as much snow (about 100" average where we are).

‘Was up in the Finger Lakes area 2 weeks ago. Beautiful place.