The TLDR version- patience will be rewarded.
There are no certainties with any hire.
Here: two failed hires in 2012 and 2015.
Jimbo Fisher and all that NIL money
Super Mario at Miami (it's still early, but with all that talent--oh boy)
Indiana floundering in mediocrity for how long
Purdue has found some success with Brohm but floundering forever
Frost at Nebraska- fair-haired QB star and alum could not replicate the success of his QB at UCF
Hafley was someone a lot of people thought would have been great at Rutgers. Not so much at BC.
For every flash in the pan quick success (Bielema, Leipold), we can name 3-4 coaches on the other end of spectrum.
Some here were raving about Dino Babers earlier this year, but other than one 10-3 season, his other 5 seasons at Syracuse were losing seasons. (35-46//17-37). And Syracuse at least had a winning history. Season is falling flat with losses to Notre Dame and Pitt.
See Virginia Tech after Beamer retired. Fuentes had two nice seasons to start, but then the Hokies floundered and he was fired. Brent Pry is not off to a great start either.
See Georgia Tech after Paul Johnson retired. 25-38, and not a single winning season after 4 years of Geoff Collins.
It has been stated here many times that a hopeful comparison for Rutgers is Northwestern under Pat Fitzgerald. After a 4-8 start in season 1, he had five decent seasons and one terrific season (10-3) in year 6. Then in year 7, NW went 1-7 in conference, but 2 years later, they were 10-3 again. Now they are on hard times.
Complainers/haters fail to acknowledge the fact that Rutgers has to face three top 15 teams (often top 10 or 5) EVERY year, which, for now, are basically guaranteed losses. Add in having to play Wisconsin and Iowa (they seem to be back on track), every couple of years, and this is a recipe for 4 conference losses for a team trying to establish itself.
Patience will hopefully be rewarded.
Dave Doeren at NC State is an example- did not have a winning conference record until year 5.
Dave Clawson at Wake Forest- did not see a 500 record in conference until year 4, and did not have a winning conference record until year 8.
Jonathan Smith at Oregon State- three losing records to start, went 7-6/5-4 in year 4, and now on track.
Kyle Whittingham at Utah did not have a winning conference record until year 4.
Willie Fritz at Tulane had a winning conference record in year 3, regressed for 3 years, and now has Tulane at 8-1/5-0 and ranked.
Certainly, the haters and negatoids will find fault with the above and bring up Bielema or Leipold, but they were addressed. Unless you are blue blood (but see A&M LOL), most hires are a shot in the dark. But the examples above are where patience and slow builds were rewarded. The signs are there that we are much better on defense in year 3, and much better on special teams. Gavin is developing. With Sam Brown back, the running back room is strong. We need a couple/few solid receivers and TEs and a fortified OL (Greg has recruited well), and we may be on our way. Unless NIL completely derails things, thinking Year 4, or Year 5 will be the year we turn the corner.