Thoughts on the national scene

[RU72]

I watched just about everything this weekend and have a tie in with an analytics company which reps 3 Top 10 programs.
The Big does not scare me and they are a long ways away from the SEC and a decent bit behind the Big 12 with Purdue and Michigan State and perhaps Ohio State as the only serious contenders for the Elite 8. I don't buy Woodson and think Maryland and Iowa may end up as paper tigers.A bit early to say quite obviously. I can't see Rutgers as worse than 3-2 in the next 5 which I don't envision as a gauntlet.On the national scene and if I was the committee my top 8 seeds would be:
Houston
Virginia
UConn
Purdue
Arizona
Texas
Tennessee
Bama
Teams which seem real,but will under impress in March:Duke,Gonzaga,Michigan,Nova,St John's

 

[FrankZ]

Nova at 2-5 makes the list?

 

[superfan01]

I watched just about everything this weekend and have a tie in with an analytics company which reps 3 Top 10 programs.
The Big does not scare me and they are a long ways away from the SEC and a decent bit behind the Big 12 with Purdue and Michigan State and perhaps Ohio State as the only serious contenders for the Elite 8. I don't buy Woodson and think Maryland and Iowa may end up as paper tigers.A bit early to say quite obviously. I can't see Rutgers as worse than 3-2 in the next 5 which I don't envision as a gauntlet.On the national scene and if I was the committee my top 8 seeds would be:
Houston
Virginia
UConn
Purdue
Arizona
Texas
Tennessee
Bama
Teams which seem real,but will under impress in March:Duke,Gonzaga,Michigan,Nova,St John's

Any word on if we see Paul back? Ar who's basing 3-2 on Paul back or not?

 

[RutgHoops]

Disagree on B1G v SEC. Think the B1G is (slightly) better. It's close. Big 12 looks really good.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Nova at 2-5 makes the list?

Yeah, it's hard to say a 2-5 team "looks real" at this stage.

 

[NewJerseyHawk]

The Big 12 is 52-9 around the middle of the day yesterday in OOC games.

The B1G was 70-16 in OOC games so far in 2022-23.

The B1G is 17-10 against Power 6 conference teams.

I don't make the rules or narrative, they keep jumping off the page.....we keep seeing the B1G is down and the evidence annually keeps saying otherwise.

The B1G doesn't need a national championship to prove anything. There are the same 6 to 8 programs who recruit at a 5* level that are the annual contenders for a National Championship......Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State and the lurkers after that are or have been Nova, UConn, UCLA, Gonzaga, Arizona, Michigan and Baylor.

There's room for more programs to jump into that space once in awhile. But I will maintain that the B1G has recruited as many solid 3 to 4 year players as any other league. And it will keep the B1G in the Top 1 to 3 range for the foreseeable future.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Disagree on B1G v SEC. Think the B1G is (slightly) better. It's close. Big 12 looks really good.

Way too early to tell

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Criticisms off bartovik and kenpom at the end of November are valid.

Having said that…..there is a clear #1 and a clear #2

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T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

 

[RU72]

The Big 12 is 52-9 around the middle of the day yesterday in OOC games.

The B1G was 70-16 in OOC games so far in 2022-23.

The B1G is 17-10 against Power 6 conference teams.

I don't make the rules or narrative, they keep jumping off the page.....we keep seeing the B1G is down and the evidence annually keeps saying otherwise.

The B1G doesn't need a national championship to prove anything. There are the same 6 to 8 programs who recruit at a 5* level that are the annual contenders for a National Championship......Duke, UNC, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan State and the lurkers after that are or have been Nova, UConn, UCLA, Gonzaga, Arizona, Michigan and Baylor.

There's room for more programs to jump into that space once in awhile. But I will maintain that the B1G has recruited as many solid 3 to 4 year players as any other league. And it will keep the B1G in the Top 1 to 3 range for the foreseeable future.

Michigan State historically does not recruit at nearly close to this level. They did this year and next. Michigan has recruited at this level recently but have underperformed tremendously. Could be coaching. Could be internal. Not sure. But the notion that the Big Ten does not have to win a National Championship ever again is in my opinion way off base. You can't have UConn win 3 and Nova win 2 since the Big Ten last won one. It is indicative of some issue in the Conference. Style of play?Bad scheduling?Bad recruiting. Who really knows.I will hitch my wagon to style of play and historic bad veteran guard play. And the only teams this year which seem like a last weekend possibility are Purdue and Michigan State. We shall see.Hope I am wrong.

 

[kcg88]

Yeah, it's hard to say a 2-5 team "looks real" at this stage.

Real bad

 

[ColonelRutgers]

With Caleb clearly rusty and wearing a heavy brace and Paul not cleared for contact yet, I'm very pessimistic about the next 5 games. If everyone was healthy and had been jelling for the past three weeks I might have a different opinion but I feel like the entire season is in jeopardy right now unless Paul and Caleb can't get healthy and then mesh with the rest of the team in a hurry.

 

[goru7]

Michigan State historically does not recruit at nearly close to this level. They did this year and next. Michigan has recruited at this level recently but have underperformed tremendously. Could be coaching. Could be internal. Not sure. But the notion that the Big Ten does not have to win a National Championship ever again is in my opinion way off base. You can't have UConn win 3 and Nova win 2 since the Big Ten last won one. It is indicative of some issue in the Conference. Style of play?Bad scheduling?Bad recruiting. Who really knows.I will hitch my wagon to style of play and historic bad veteran guard play. And the only teams this year which seem like a last weekend possibility are Purdue and Michigan State. We shall see.Hope I am wrong.

You cannot possibly think Michigan State’s guards of Hoggard and Walker are good enough guards to make Michigan State elite. They are not. Purdue’s freshman guards are playing great now but they are freshman.
Now I agree with you that the BIG 10 not having won a National Championship since 2002 is a black eye. It is really difficult today to get those 6 wins but like you said UConn and Villanova has done it multiple times with great coaching and players and a little luck and someone from the BIG 10 will break through since the conference is still getting top players and has some elite coaches.

 

[RutgHoops]

...... Michigan has recruited at this level recently but have underperformed tremendously. Could be coaching. Could be internal. Not sure. ....

Love your posts and with all due respect:

SW16
E8
COVID year
SW16
Nat'l Title game
SW16

Pretty good 6 year (5 tournaments) run for Michigan.

 

[goru7]

With Caleb clearly rusty and wearing a heavy brace and Paul not cleared for contact yet, I'm very pessimistic about the next 5 games. If everyone was healthy and had been jelling for the past three weeks I might have a different opinion but I feel like the entire season is in jeopardy right now unless Paul and Caleb can't get healthy and then mesh with the rest of the team in a hurry.

That is an extremely negative take with some absolutely expected anxiousness. Paul and Caleb will come back but everybody has to step up. We are not playing murderers row here. 5 teams , who have already lost a game except for Indiana , who might or might not lose to UNC , right before they play us. If none of the freshman and none of the upperclassmen play well , then it could be disastrous but that is more unlikely than not to happen .

 

[Scangg]

Criticisms off bartovik and kenpom at the end of November are valid.

Having said that…..there is a clear #1 and a clear #2

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

ACC 8th 🤣

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

If memory was correct wasnt Michigan perceived to be the team to beat in the B1G at this time last year. They fizzled

Nothing is determined late November. Let’s revisit late January and then discuss who the top teams are.

 

[kcg88]

November 27, 2021:

10 of the top 10 at KenPom make the tournament. Three one seeds are here, but so is an 11 seed (Michigan)

9 of 11-20 make the tournament (Florida, ranked 13th, does not). Lowest seed earned is a 7.

7 of 21-30 make the tournament (BYU, Florida State, St. Bonaventure don't). Seed range 4-11.

7 of 31-40 make the tournament (Xavier, Oklahoma State, Maryland don't... OkSt was ineligible). Seed range 3-12 (Wisconsin was the 3)

2 of 41-50 make it (San Diego State, Colorado State)

2 of 51-60 make it (UAB, UNC... ranked 51 and 52).

Seven teams outside the top 52 as of November 27, 2021 made it: Creighton, Boise State, Providence, Iowa State, Davidson, Rutgers, Miami (lowest ranked at #95)


November 27, 2018:
10/10 top 10
10/10 11-20
3/10 21-30 (wow)
7/10 31-40
7/10 41-50
3/10 51-60

November 27, 2017:

10/10 top 10
7/10 11-20
7/10 21-30
4/10 31-40
5/10 41-50
6/10 51-60

If you're in the 21-55ish range as of this date you have basically a 40-60% chance of making the tournament.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Found a complete gem from November 27, 2021. Includes our fans upset that paul and Caleb played 71 minutes and Jaden Jones and Hyatt barely played.

GAME 6 MASSACHUSETTS: Turn out the lights, the party is over

His opinion has changed dramatically after watching the first six games. thats true, he went from brightsiding to eye opening. I think he believed that guys like Jones and Hyatt and Miller would have been integrated into the rotation at as difference makers not as afterthoughts

rutgers.forums.rivals.com

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

ACC 8th 🤣

barely ahead of #9. American conference

 

[RUPete]

Found a complete gem from November 27, 2021. Includes our fans upset that paul and Caleb played 71 minutes and Jaden Jones and Hyatt barely played.

GAME 6 MASSACHUSETTS: Turn out the lights, the party is over

His opinion has changed dramatically after watching the first six games. thats true, he went from brightsiding to eye opening. I think he believed that guys like Jones and Hyatt and Miller would have been integrated into the rotation at as difference makers not as afterthoughts

rutgers.forums.rivals.com

I really don't want to re-live that period in my fandom history.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I really don't want to re-live that period in my fandom history.

It is pure gold.

 

[RUPete]

It is pure gold.

You need to re-post my prediction that we'd beat four ranked teams in succession to rescue our season and earn an NCAA bid. Keep looking, I know it's there somewhere...

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You need to re-post my prediction that we'd beat four ranked teams in succession to rescue our season and earn an NCAA bid. Keep looking, I know it's there somewhere...

I was spot on, looking like a genius, until I called the B1G DPOY at best an average defender.

 

[bac2therac]

If memory was correct wasnt Michigan perceived to be the team to beat in the B1G at this time last year. They fizzled

Nothing is determined late November. Let’s revisit late January and then discuss who the top teams are.

Agree. Way too early. Peeps always forgot how these things play out. Remember UNC was on the bubble to make the NCAA before beating Duke

Purdue lost to St Peters

A middling Miami made the Elite 8

Two years ago a mediocre in season UCLA who was the last team selected made the final 4

 

[kcg88]

barely ahead of #9. American conference

Tournament bids last season:

B10 - 9
B12 - 6
BE - 6
SEC - 6
ACC - 5
MWC - 4
P12 - 3
WCC - 3
A10 - 2
AAC - 2

Eyeballing it early, I think the MWC loses one, the WCC loses one, and the Big East loses at least one.

Two of those are taken by the B12 and the SEC. That still leaves one or maybe two as a mystery to me.

Actually I'll go ahead and say the Big 12 gets eight bids, it's that strong this year. Iowa State and Oklahoma finished tied in the 7th/8th spots last year at 7-11, one made it and one didn't. The problem is that a 17-14 (7-11) record is an ugly one for the committee to get behind even if all the losses are quality losses. Oklahoma tacked on a win over Baylor in the conference tournament and was still First Four Out. The math of the Big 12 is interesting to keep an eye on throughout the year. It's possible that three decent teams finish 6-12 or worse and I just don't see any way a 6-12 team gets a bid.

Can you find a 5th Big East tournament team? UConn and Creighton definitely. St. John's is looking good. Xavier has the computer numbers but they're just 4-3 and still have to play WVU, but they're probably in. That makes 4. Villanova is a disaster, SHU is 4-3 with one bad loss, Marquette and Providence have both lost to the only two decent teams they've played. This was a four bid league in both 2019 and 2021 BUT this time around they have two excellent teams so wins over UConn and Creighton will carry more weight.

The bottom of the ACC is such a disaster that any wins Florida State/Louisville do get are harmful to the conference as a whole. It's definitely possible that a top 6 separates itself though and they manage to get that many in. Wins over Duke and North Carolina still matter even when those teams are merely good.

The Pac-12 still sucks. Arizona in, UCLA in... next highest at KenPom is Oregon who is 3-4 with a loss to UC Irvine. Someone will get a third bid for sure but it's hard to see a fourth with all the bad losses this conference has taken.

Big Ten... I would've thought 6 or 7 entering the season, now I'm wondering if 10 is possible. Probably not because of the same math dilemma that the Big 12 runs into. Somebody's gotta lose the games.

WCC could actually benefit from Gonzaga being beatable this year. If they go 13-3 in the league it means 3 teams have a good win. St. Mary's will get in anyway... San Francisco again maybe? I could be talked into them getting three bids again I guess.

 

[YoucancallmeRay]

It's a snapshot only. As 72 wrote, the Big10 seems to have only two or three top national teams right now, but lots can and will happen. You can say the Big10 is a top two or three conference all you want, but it's fool's gold. The NCAA tourney is what counts.

 

[ru66]

Michigan State historically does not recruit at nearly close to this level. They did this year and next. Michigan has recruited at this level recently but have underperformed tremendously. Could be coaching. Could be internal. Not sure. But the notion that the Big Ten does not have to win a National Championship ever again is in my opinion way off base. You can't have UConn win 3 and Nova win 2 since the Big Ten last won one. It is indicative of some issue in the Conference. Style of play?Bad scheduling?Bad recruiting. Who really knows.I will hitch my wagon to style of play and historic bad veteran guard play. And the only teams this year which seem like a last weekend possibility are Purdue and Michigan State. We shall see.Hope I am wrong.

Some understand where you stand-- you love the bigeast due to your love of uconn.We shall see what we shall see. I'm hoping uconn and hurley fall on their faces.

 

[bac2therac]

The Big 12 is always good for one school totally imploding as the season comes to a close

 

[Degaz-RU]

That is an extremely negative take with some absolutely expected anxiousness. Paul and Caleb will come back but everybody has to step up. We are not playing murderers row here. 5 teams , who have already lost a game except for Indiana , who might or might not lose to UNC , right before they play us. If none of the freshman and none of the upperclassmen play well , then it could be disastrous but that is more unlikely than not to happen .

At this point, winning 2 of the 5 should be the bare minimum, as SHU and Wake are mediocre, and we get them both at home. Yes, I know anything can happen -- especially in a rivalry game with SHU -- but we should beat both of these teams handily.

That leaves Miami (road), Indiana (home), and OSU (away and we NEVER play well there) as the more difficult swing games. If we can just grab ONE of these games, 3-2 is a success. But damn do I want to get a road win (quad 1) to start building our tournament resume.

 

[ru66]

Found a complete gem from November 27, 2021. Includes our fans upset that paul and Caleb played 71 minutes and Jaden Jones and Hyatt barely played.

GAME 6 MASSACHUSETTS: Turn out the lights, the party is over

His opinion has changed dramatically after watching the first six games. thats true, he went from brightsiding to eye opening. I think he believed that guys like Jones and Hyatt and Miller would have been integrated into the rotation at as difference makers not as afterthoughts

rutgers.forums.rivals.com

Yup the same long winded " expert was going off the rails as usual

 

[Nycrusupporter]

Michigan State historically does not recruit at nearly close to this level. They did this year and next. Michigan has recruited at this level recently but have underperformed tremendously. Could be coaching. Could be internal. Not sure. But the notion that the Big Ten does not have to win a National Championship ever again is in my opinion way off base. You can't have UConn win 3 and Nova win 2 since the Big Ten last won one. It is indicative of some issue in the Conference. Style of play?Bad scheduling?Bad recruiting. Who really knows.I will hitch my wagon to style of play and historic bad veteran guard play. And the only teams this year which seem like a last weekend possibility are Purdue and Michigan State. We shall see.Hope I am wrong.

It is surprising Michigan State was able to pull the #3 player in 2023. Izzo, like most of the Big 10 coaches, is a system coach, and is generally looking for players to come in and adapt to his system. Top 10-15 type players generally go play for coaches who will adapt their style of play to highlight the skill set of the incoming recruits.

 

[kcg88]

It is surprising Michigan State was able to pull the #3 player in 2023. Izzo, like most of the Big 10 coaches, is a system coach, and is generally looking for players to come in and adapt to his system. Top 10-15 type players generally go play for coaches who will adapt their style of play to highlight the skill set of the incoming recruits.

I've downplayed the impact of NIL as it pertains to Rutgers and other schools but Michigan State has a billionaire booster who was formerly a walk-on on the basketball team. I'd be shocked if their 2023 class wasn't the result of some big money being thrown around. I'd go as far as to speculate that Izzo may have gone directly to Mat Ishbia and told him that 2023-24 is his last season and either directly or indirectly asked for his help with recruiting. That's my Occam's Razor read of the situation, at least.

 

[Nycrusupporter]

I've downplayed the impact of NIL as it pertains to Rutgers and other schools but Michigan State has a billionaire booster who was formerly a walk-on on the basketball team. I'd be shocked if their 2023 class wasn't the result of some big money being thrown around. I'd go as far as to speculate that Izzo may have gone directly to Mat Ishbia and told him that 2023-24 is his last season and either directly or indirectly asked for his help with recruiting. That's my Occam's Razor read of the situation, at least.

It’s possible, but pretty risky for a one and done player. You don’t see guys like Michael Jordan playing for a system coach like Dean Smith anymore. You aren’t going to want to average 13 points a game, when you could average 25 in a more flexible open NBA style offense. And if it cost you several spots in the draft, whatever short term money you made will most likely be offset by a much longer term reduction in income.

 

[fluoxetine]

Criticisms off bartovik and kenpom at the end of November are valid.

Having said that…..there is a clear #1 and a clear #2

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

ACC below MWC and WCC.. jesus

 

[fluoxetine]

The big difference between the B1G and the Big 12 seems to be that the Big 12 just doesn't have a bottom. TCU coming in last at #46 is pretty insane. In theory that means the whole conference deserves to make the tournament.

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Agree. Way too early. Peeps always forgot how these things play out. Remember UNC was on the bubble to make the NCAA before beating Duke

Purdue lost to St Peters

A middling Miami made the Elite 8

Two years ago a mediocre in season UCLA who was the last team selected made the final 4

Exactly !!!

It’s way way way early in the season ….and if anything we learned from last year , was that it is a loooooong season and your season isn’t over with a final NCAA resume until you are eliminated from your confrence tournamnwnt

This is why I’m annoyed at zags for saying that this five games stretch will help shape RU NCAA hopes . It’s nothing of the sort . It’s an hourly exam . Unless you fail it (0 for 5) and dig yourself into a big hole , you can claw yourself back into the dance with a big January and February . Ditto going 5 for 5…sets us up nicely going into January and February , but if 2019-2020 taught us anything 7-3/16-5 can quickly turn into 9-9/18-11 and playing for your tournament life in March

It’s about the journey …and it’s a long one

 

[kcg88]

The big difference between the B1G and the Big 12 seems to be that the Big 12 just doesn't have a bottom. TCU coming in last at #46 is pretty insane. In theory that means the whole conference deserves to make the tournament.

Big 12 has 10 teams in the top 50.

Big 10 has 11 teams in the top 50.

Interestingly, they had 11 yesterday too but Michigan moved up and Northwestern out with Pitt blowing NW out. That helped Michigan a lot since the Wolverines had beaten Pitt by 30.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

I like the potent starting lineup Paul, Caleb, Cam with Cliff, i think all of their skills sets will blend well on the court together and high ceiling of our veteran guard play if Paul and Caleb can get healthy and develop chemistry with Cam before January. It will make Derek Simpson off the bench even more effective and whoever we play at the 4 for 40 minutes. Rutgers will be in the discussion at the top half of the heap in the B1G with Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Ohio St. and Iowa. Maryland and Penn St have looked the best they've looked since 19-20. Michigan and Wisconsin round out the list of 11 good teams in this conference. Right now, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan St have looked the best in November from the B1G but can easily change come January, February or March. Minnesota, NW and Nebraska will still be dragging the B1G down at the bottom.

 

[RU_DIO]

I've downplayed the impact of NIL as it pertains to Rutgers and other schools but Michigan State has a billionaire booster who was formerly a walk-on on the basketball team. I'd be shocked if their 2023 class wasn't the result of some big money being thrown around. I'd go as far as to speculate that Izzo may have gone directly to Mat Ishbia and told him that 2023-24 is his last season and either directly or indirectly asked for his help with recruiting. That's my Occam's Razor read of the situation, at least.

Why can't we have a former walk-on billionaire donating to our NIL.

 

[YoucancallmeRay]

I like the potent starting lineup Paul, Caleb, Cam with Cliff, i think all of their skills sets will blend well on the court together and high ceiling of our veteran guard play if Paul and Caleb can get healthy and develop chemistry with Cam before January. It will make Derek Simpson off the bench even more effective and whoever we play at the 4 for 40 minutes. Rutgers will be in the discussion at the top half of the heap in the B1G with Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, Michigan St, Ohio St. and Iowa. Maryland and Penn St have looked the best they've looked since 19-20. Michigan and Wisconsin round out the list of 11 good teams in this conference. Right now, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois and Michigan St have looked the best in November from the B1G but can easily change come January, February or March. Minnesota, NW and Nebraska will still be dragging the B1G down at the bottom.

I think you're being way optimistic regarding RU being "potent". Where does our offense come from? Cam is the only natural scorer we have with your four starters and either Hyatt or Mag. Other teams will put their best defender on Cam. If he's shut down, where do we go? Our best offense will be to rebound and push the ball, and if we don't play great defense every game, we're going to struggle to make the NCAA tourney.