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Football Updated ESPN FPI's for Rutgers Football

Those numbers are bizzare. Whoever created that doesn't understand statistics. Their standard deviations are just too thin. The week after App state beats the #6 team in the country, they're saying RU has a 2.8% chance to beat OSU??? I.E. we would need to play them THIRTY FIVE times in a row to win one? Don't get me wrong, we ain't beaing OSU this year....but the probability is much more like 9-11%.
 
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Those numbers are bizzare. Whoever created that doesn't understand statistics. Their standard deviations are just too thin. The week after App state beats the #6 team in the country, they're saying RU has a 2.8% chance to beat OSU??? I.E. we would need to play them THIRTY FIVE times in a row to win one? Don't get me wrong, we ain't beaing OSU this year....but the probability is much more like 9-11%.
I do not believe they are taking into account what happened in the App St game or if we play them 35 times. They are going week by week specifically on the game they are ranking. What matters is how Rutgers and OSU did and or their opponents

With that said- I can understand why they may favor us in the Iowa and Neb games but not why they would have us so high with Indy.
 
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Those numbers are bizzare. Whoever created that doesn't understand statistics. Their standard deviations are just too thin. The week after App state beats the #6 team in the country, they're saying RU has a 2.8% chance to beat OSU??? I.E. we would need to play them THIRTY FIVE times in a row to win one? Don't get me wrong, we ain't beaing OSU this year....but the probability is much more like 9-11%.

I get what you’re saying, but this isn’t how the ESPN probability score works. Losing one, or ten or 35 times in a row doesn’t change our odds of beating them the next time. Each game is a one-off event - like flipping a coin.
 
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I get what you’re saying, but this isn’t how the ESPN probability score works. Losing one, or ten or 35 times in a row doesn’t change our odds of beating them the next time. Each game is a one-off event - like flipping a coin.
That's exactly how it works....a 2.8 % prob of winning is equivalent to 1 positive outcome in approximately 35 tries. You are correct is saying that if we lose 10 (completely random) games in a row, that does not change the likelihood of winning/losing the next, but that is a separate argument.

Or, In layman's terms....In a game where mediocre teams beat very good teams on a fairly regular basis...it's just plain foolish to say that a mediocre team has virtually zero chance to beat a very good team. It may not happen to us but it has already happened multiple times in week one and will continue to do so as the season goes on.
 
That's exactly how it works....a 2.8 % prob of winning is equivalent to 1 positive outcome in approximately 35 tries. You are correct is saying that if we lose 10 (completely random) games in a row, that does not change the likelihood of winning/losing the next, but that is a separate argument.

Or, In layman's terms....In a game where mediocre teams beat very good teams on a fairly regular basis...it's just plain foolish to say that a mediocre team has virtually zero chance to beat a very good team. It may not happen to us but it has already happened multiple times in week one and will continue to do so as the season goes on.
You are missing the point - these are not mathematic odds in that sense. But what if we play them 35 times, this year, same opponents, same team/coaches, same previous outcomes plus the opponents all in the same etc...After we play 35 years in a row- different everything- it is a completely different %
 
Dang- now projecting 6 wins.

true but 2 of the remaining 4 projected wins (Iowa and Indiana) we are just barely favorites and each of the 6 projected losses we are HUGE underdogs. so cant assume 6 wins as the over-under.

will still be a god accomplishment to get to 6 wins this year
 
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true but 2 of the remaining 4 projected wins (Iowa and Indiana) we are just barely favorites and each of the 6 projected losses we are HUGE underdogs. so cant assume 6 wins as the over-under.

will still be a god accomplishment to get to 6 wins this year
6 wins this year would mean that everyone needs to just shutup about HCGS...
With our schedule- 6 wins should be NCOY
 
What is his name again? Not sure I ever heard it on our board.............
season 5 audience GIF
 
6 wins this year would mean that everyone needs to just shutup about HCGS...
With our schedule- 6 wins should be NCOY
I don’t know about NCOY but it would undoubtedly be really good progress. I don’t think they give NCOY to coaches with 6-6 records lol
 
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