Weather for MSU @ RU: seasonable temps/likely dry (maybe a light shower or two)

[RU848789]

Took 24 hours off from RU football after yesterday's debacle (plus I had an all day disc golf tourney today), so just getting around to this now. Anyway, at this point the forecast looks somewhat like we had 6-7 days out last week, i.e., high pressure entrenched from mid-week onward and an upper level cutoff low trying to move its way towards us from our west with a trough late in the week. This past week, the high pressure held strong and we had gorgeous weather for this weekend, while the models currently show a range of solutions, from something similar to this weekend to the high eroding and occasional drizzle/showers being possible on gameday. Temps are forecast to be seasonable (avg high/low on 10/9 is 68/45) at this point, so if the rain holds off it could be a nice day. Still too far out to know which way this one will go.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cutoff low will continue to spin to our southwest through the
greater part of the week, slowly absorbing back into the parent
westerly flow by Friday as a kicker shortwave ejects from the
Rockies over the northern Plains. Instead, the remnant energy from
the trough erodes as a piece of vorticity lifts with the Plains
trough and the remaining vorticity drifts off the Southeast Coast.
Rather impressive mid-level ridging for this time of year builds
ahead of the developing amplified trough over the West. This shoots
500 mb heights over 576 dm well towards the Hudson Bay. While we
stay damp and on the humid side, this keeps us slightly warmer than
average for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 70s
Wednesday through Sunday with lows in upper 50s to low 60s.

As for precip chances, this is a more difficult call as the entire
period remains rather unsettled. With onshore flow in the wake of
Tuesday`s front, added the mention for drizzle Wednesday with the
stronger onshore flow from east to west. Thursday looks to be
perhaps the best day with the lowest chances for drizzle and rain
showers. Am more inclined to call them periods of light rain but
left forecast wording as showers for now as the latest guidance has
trended downward on PoPs it appears. Depending on how the cutoff low
erodes by Friday will determine the rain chances; if it absorbs
into the new trough further to our west, we`ll remain on the
drier side. I am more in favor of this solution given the trend
with the past cut-off low of last week continually improving.
Global guidance seems to be absorbing this low a little more
quickly each run the past few days with the surface high inching
further southeast into our region.

 

[RocktheRac]

Should have waited another 48 hours. Why waste time you will never get back and wait till Wednesday?

 

[rondi]

Thanks for the update, RU#s. Appreciate your weather posts. Keep the updates coming…and we get it, the weather forecast often changes & isn‘t guaranteed 🤓. At least we know there is no major hurricane brewing for Homecoming.

Go RU!
Diane

 

[bac2therac]

they are having trouble getting a forecast for today right 12 hours in advance

this one will not be settled til much later in the week.

 

[MulletCork]

I saw yesterday that it was Amy Freeze's last day working for ABC News. She was one of the best in NYC. Didn't announce where she was going next.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Looking good—

News 12 <!-- -->Default<!-- --> - Weather

 

[RU848789]

I saw yesterday that it was Amy Freeze's last day working for ABC News. She was one of the best in NYC. Didn't announce where she was going next.

Addition by subtraction...

 

[RU#1fan]

Looking good—

News 12 <!-- -->Default<!-- --> - Weather

yes … looking good for Saturday 👌

 

[RU848789]

Took 24 hours off from RU football after yesterday's debacle (plus I had an all day disc golf tourney today), so just getting around to this now. Anyway, at this point the forecast looks somewhat like we had 6-7 days out last week, i.e., high pressure entrenched from mid-week onward and an upper level cutoff low trying to move its way towards us from our west with a trough late in the week. This past week, the high pressure held strong and we had gorgeous weather for this weekend, while the models currently show a range of solutions, from something similar to this weekend to the high eroding and occasional drizzle/showers being possible on gameday. Temps are forecast to be seasonable (avg high/low on 10/9 is 68/45) at this point, so if the rain holds off it could be a nice day. Still too far out to know which way this one will go.

https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
337 PM EDT Sun Oct 3 2021

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cutoff low will continue to spin to our southwest through the
greater part of the week, slowly absorbing back into the parent
westerly flow by Friday as a kicker shortwave ejects from the
Rockies over the northern Plains. Instead, the remnant energy from
the trough erodes as a piece of vorticity lifts with the Plains
trough and the remaining vorticity drifts off the Southeast Coast.
Rather impressive mid-level ridging for this time of year builds
ahead of the developing amplified trough over the West. This shoots
500 mb heights over 576 dm well towards the Hudson Bay. While we
stay damp and on the humid side, this keeps us slightly warmer than
average for this time of year with highs in the low to mid 70s
Wednesday through Sunday with lows in upper 50s to low 60s.

As for precip chances, this is a more difficult call as the entire
period remains rather unsettled. With onshore flow in the wake of
Tuesday`s front, added the mention for drizzle Wednesday with the
stronger onshore flow from east to west. Thursday looks to be
perhaps the best day with the lowest chances for drizzle and rain
showers. Am more inclined to call them periods of light rain but
left forecast wording as showers for now as the latest guidance has
trended downward on PoPs it appears. Depending on how the cutoff low
erodes by Friday will determine the rain chances; if it absorbs
into the new trough further to our west, we`ll remain on the
drier side. I am more in favor of this solution given the trend
with the past cut-off low of last week continually improving.
Global guidance seems to be absorbing this low a little more
quickly each run the past few days with the surface high inching
further southeast into our region.

Precip forecast is still looking iffy, with most (but not all) models showing dry conditions through the morning, but showers in the afternoon. This could end up being a situation where tailgates are dry and the game has some showers - not a deluge and not a washout, but enough to be more than a nuisance for some/most (0.1-0.2" possible), although not for me, especially if it's about 70F and fairly humid with dewpoints near 60F (a bit of rain won't bother me). The official NWS forecast calls for dry conditions through about 2 pm, then some showers. Still 5 days out, so much can change.

 

[RU848789]

yes … looking good for Saturday 👌

I wouldn't go that far, as per my last post. The forecast is a bit more optimistic than yesterday, but it's possible there could be showers both before and during the game, with shower chances more likely during the game, but it's also possible it'll be dry (shower chances are only in the 20-30% range right now from 9 am to 3 pm).

 

[RUPete]

Precip forecast is still looking iffy, with most (but not all) models showing dry conditions through the morning, but showers in the afternoon. This could end up being a situation where tailgates are dry and the game has some showers - not a deluge and not a washout, but enough to be more than a nuisance for some/most (0.1-0.2" possible), although not for me, especially if it's about 70F and fairly humid with dewpoints near 60F (a bit of rain won't bother me). The official NWS forecast calls for dry conditions through about 2 pm, then some showers. Still 5 days out, so much can change.

Yeah, but we deal with that at this time of year easily. Dry tailgate, deal with a few showers during the game - no problem.

 

[RU848789]

Should have waited another 48 hours. Why waste time you will never get back and wait till Wednesday?

It's not wasted time for me, as seeing a forecast evolve over a week is fascinating to me. Maybe you should've just not looked at the thread until Wednesday, since it appears as though you're the one wasting your time, not me.

 

[RU848789]

Yeah, but we deal with that at this time of year easily. Dry tailgate, deal with a few showers during the game - no problem.

I agree, but RU fans are notoriously fair weather fans, who simply won't show up if there's a real threat of rain and will complain bitterly if the forecast is for 0.1" of rain and 0.2" of rain falls, as we've seen countless times in these threads.

 

[RUPete]

I agree, but RU fans are notoriously fair weather fans, who simply won't show up if there's a real threat of rain and will complain bitterly if the forecast is for 0.1" of rain and 0.2" of rain falls, as we've seen countless times in these threads.

There’s about 3-4 fans in that category who bitterly complain about discrepancies in the forecasts and outcomes and we know who they are! Hint: they troll these threads.

 

[RU#1fan]

I wouldn't go that far, as per my last post. The forecast is a bit more optimistic than yesterday, but it's possible there could be showers both before and during the game, with shower chances more likely during the game, but it's also possible it'll be dry (shower chances are only in the 20-30% range right now from 9 am to 3 pm).

Also saw something similar on the TWC app.
Really hoping we get close to what they might be inferring ….showers early and then late. Maybe we get the dry window for 3 hours. 🌥️

 

[bac2therac]

I saw yesterday that it was Amy Freeze's last day working for ABC News. She was one of the best in NYC. Didn't announce where she was going next.

Wow the end of an era and her bust

 

[RocktheRac]

It's not wasted time for me, as seeing a forecast evolve over a week is fascinating to me. Maybe you should've just not looked at the thread until Wednesday, since it appears as though you're the one wasting your time, not me.

I haven't read the post. I just scroll down and reply.

 

[RocktheRac]

I wouldn't go that far, as per my last post. The forecast is a bit more optimistic than yesterday, but it's possible there could be showers both before and during the game, with shower chances more likely during the game, but it's also possible it'll be dry (shower chances are only in the 20-30% range right now from 9 am to 3 pm).

Well that's going out on a limb. It may shower before and during the game and then again it may not. lol

 

[Crazed_RU]

Well that's going out on a limb. It may shower before and during the game and then again it may not. lol

What are you reading the thread for then? Everyone knows weather 4 days out is questionable - if you don't want to hear about the possibilities and percentages then wait until the day before the game to check the weather and stop clogging the thread with BS.

 

[RUPete]

What are you reading the thread for then? Everyone knows weather 4 days out is questionable - if you don't want to hear about the possibilities and percentages then wait until the day before the game to check the weather and stop clogging the thread with BS.

He is professionally certified in ball busting. It's part of the "charm" of these weather threads.

 

[RocktheRac]

What are you reading the thread for then? Everyone knows weather 4 days out is questionable - if you don't want to hear about the possibilities and percentages then wait until the day before the game to check the weather and stop clogging the thread with BS.

I continually state i do not read the actual weather weather thread.

 

[bac2therac]

there is no lean either way for this weekend, still a total crapshoot, cannot believe that people are saying words like more optimistic at this point...too soon to tell totally.

 

[RU848789]

Precip forecast is still looking iffy, with most (but not all) models showing dry conditions through the morning, but showers in the afternoon. This could end up being a situation where tailgates are dry and the game has some showers - not a deluge and not a washout, but enough to be more than a nuisance for some/most (0.1-0.2" possible), although not for me, especially if it's about 70F and fairly humid with dewpoints near 60F (a bit of rain won't bother me). The official NWS forecast calls for dry conditions through about 2 pm, then some showers. Still 5 days out, so much can change.

As the NWS said on Sunday, this is starting to look like last week's forecast, which started out very iffy on when the rex-block high/low combo (high north of a low) would break down and allow a trough and showers to move into the area, and became a high confidence forecast for dry conditions by mid-week, which verified. So, confidence is growing in a dry to almost dry forecast for gameday, as reflected in the NWS taking mention of showers out of the official forecast throughout the daytime hours on Saturday (although they're still carrying 10-20% chance of a brief shower or two in the hourly forecast)

All of the models now show essentially no shower activity in the morning (apart from a sprinkle or two perhaps) and then minimal shower activity in the game timeframe, with <0.05" of rain depicted, at most (and completely dry conditions in some models), which is certainly nuisance level on a warm day (high of 70F with fairly humid conditions). However, it's much more likely that this Saturday will be cloudy, unlike last week (which I don't mind at all). It could get a little breezy by the afternoon, though, but probably not enough to affect passing. Nice write-up by the NWS-NYC below (which covers Union/Staten Island, which are obviously very close to us).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
601 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday through Friday will remain dry as upper level ridging from
the western Atlantic remains in place. This will keep an upper
trough and associated upper low west of the area. The upper ridge
begins to weaken and move slowly east during the day Saturday,
allowing the trough to approach the region. Meanwhile, another
surface high starts to build north of the region.

The trend over the last 24 hours has leaned towards a more dry
forecast this weekend. With the approach of the trough, the surface
high should keep things mostly dry, especially earlier on in the
weekend. Will only keep some slight chance POPs in he forecast for
Saturday, and this will be limited to the western sections of CWA.
Will increase POPs to chance on Saturday night and Sunday, however I
would not be surprised if those POPS were lowered in subsequent
forecasts. Slight chance POPS continue into the first part of next
week with the trough over head and the potential for another low to
approach.

Temperatures through the period will be above normal. The warmest
days will Thursday and Friday with the most sunshine. Highs will be
in the lower to middle 70s. More clouds over the weekend should lead
to highs in the upper 60s to around 70s degrees. Temperatures warm
into lower and middle 70s to start next week.

 

[RU848789]

there is no lean either way for this weekend, still a total crapshoot, cannot believe that people are saying words like more optimistic at this point...too soon to tell totally.

Incorrect. Just because you can't see it doesn't mean the pros can't. Sure, there's no guarantee, yet, that it'll be completely dry, but confidence is certainly growing in a completely dry tailgate/game with, at worst, a small chance of a few light showers that certainly wouldn't affect most people, although there are always a few who will cower from sprinkles.

 

[RU848789]

I haven't read the post. I just scroll down and reply.

Immaterial. Clicking on the thread, scrolling down, and posting useless commentary sure seems like a waste of your time to me. I simply don't get why you bother.

 

[RocktheRac]

Immaterial. Clicking on the thread, scrolling down, and posting useless commentary sure seems like a waste of your time to me. I simply don't get why you bother.

Not really useless. What you consider useless waste of time and nuisance showers is a completely different view than mine. I get emails telling me otherwise.

 

[Bleem Phuppert]

Not really useless. What you consider useless waste of time and nuisance showers is a completely different view than mine. I get emails telling me otherwise.

You need to find yourself a woman.

 

[bac2therac]

Mt Holly does mention the potential for light rain and drizzle in their disco and yes drizzle can be more than a nuisance for the majority


Saturday...The surface high that will be building south from
Quebec/Newfoundland and Labrador Friday into Saturday will be
responsible for an increasing pressure gradient over our region, and
thus a return to stronger onshore flow to start the weekend. Periods
of light rain are possible, but given that most of the lift is going
to come from low level orographic lift, expect rain to be light, and
may even be more of a drizzle event.

 

[HeavenUniv.]

Looking good for Saturday, perfect football weather—

News 12 <!-- -->Default<!-- --> - Weather

 

[RU848789]

Not really useless. What you consider useless waste of time and nuisance showers is a completely different view than mine. I get emails telling me otherwise.

You "don't read the weather thread," but you're quoting "nuisance" rain/showers from my weather posts...which you don't read. Can't make this up, lol.

 

[bac2therac]

Dam Zarrow blog

Saturday & Sunday

The big Columbus Day Weekend approaches. And we're right in the heart of "autumn activities" season. Corn mazes, apple picking, youth sports, football, marching band competitions.

Unfortunately, this weekend's weather forecast doesn't look great. A complicated setup surrounded an area of low pressure that will slowly meander just off our coastline. While rainfall totals will be minimal, there could be just enough thick clouds and drizzle to put a damper on your fun. Minor coastal flooding is a possibility too.

Saturday will be not only cloudy but breezy, with wind gusts over 20 mph. Spotty showers and drizzle will be possible. High temperatures will only reach the upper 60s to around 70.

 

[RU848789]

As the NWS said on Sunday, this is starting to look like last week's forecast, which started out very iffy on when the rex-block high/low combo (high north of a low) would break down and allow a trough and showers to move into the area, and became a high confidence forecast for dry conditions by mid-week, which verified. So, confidence is growing in a dry to almost dry forecast for gameday, as reflected in the NWS taking mention of showers out of the official forecast throughout the daytime hours on Saturday (although they're still carrying 10-20% chance of a brief shower or two in the hourly forecast)

All of the models now show essentially no shower activity in the morning (apart from a sprinkle or two perhaps) and then minimal shower activity in the game timeframe, with <0.05" of rain depicted, at most (and completely dry conditions in some models), which is certainly nuisance level on a warm day (high of 70F with fairly humid conditions). However, it's much more likely that this Saturday will be cloudy, unlike last week (which I don't mind at all). It could get a little breezy by the afternoon, though, but probably not enough to affect passing. Nice write-up by the NWS-NYC below (which covers Union/Staten Island, which are obviously very close to us).

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
601 PM EDT Tue Oct 5 2021

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Thursday through Friday will remain dry as upper level ridging from
the western Atlantic remains in place. This will keep an upper
trough and associated upper low west of the area. The upper ridge
begins to weaken and move slowly east during the day Saturday,
allowing the trough to approach the region. Meanwhile, another
surface high starts to build north of the region.

The trend over the last 24 hours has leaned towards a more dry
forecast this weekend. With the approach of the trough, the surface
high should keep things mostly dry, especially earlier on in the
weekend. Will only keep some slight chance POPs in he forecast for
Saturday, and this will be limited to the western sections of CWA.
Will increase POPs to chance on Saturday night and Sunday, however I
would not be surprised if those POPS were lowered in subsequent
forecasts. Slight chance POPS continue into the first part of next
week with the trough over head and the potential for another low to
approach.

Temperatures through the period will be above normal. The warmest
days will Thursday and Friday with the most sunshine. Highs will be
in the lower to middle 70s. More clouds over the weekend should lead
to highs in the upper 60s to around 70s degrees. Temperatures warm
into lower and middle 70s to start next week.

Still a complex setup with some uncertainty on precip timing, but every model continues to show nothing more than a few sprinkles (<0.01" of rain) through about 2 pm, which is meaningless to everyone except a few drama queens on this board. And any rain during the game should also be pretty light and spotty. The NWS expects dry conditions through about 2 pm with a few light showers or drizzle possible (~30% chance of <0.02" of rain) after that, but it may also simply remain dry. It will be pretty cloudy with the backdoor cold front sending an ENE flow towards us, keeping highs in the upper 60s, and it could get a little breezy (10-15 mph) in the afternoon. Unless things change a fair amount, looks like good football weather to me.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.46300599110211&lat=40.52455975850225#.YV4NX5rMJ3g

 

[WhiteBus]

Dam Zarrow blog

Saturday & Sunday

The big Columbus Day Weekend approaches. And we're right in the heart of "autumn activities" season. Corn mazes, apple picking, youth sports, football, marching band competitions.

Unfortunately, this weekend's weather forecast doesn't look great. A complicated setup surrounded an area of low pressure that will slowly meander just off our coastline. While rainfall totals will be minimal, there could be just enough thick clouds and drizzle to put a damper on your fun. Minor coastal flooding is a possibility too.

Saturday will be not only cloudy but breezy, with wind gusts over 20 mph. Spotty showers and drizzle will be possible. High temperatures will only reach the upper 60s to around 70.

I was thinking of cycling up from Philadelphia for the game. A slight rain doesn't scare me. The 10 to 20 mph winds does. Guess I better gas up the pickup.

 

[RU#1fan]

I was thinking of cycling up from Philadelphia for the game. A slight rain doesn't scare me. The 10 to 20 mph winds does. Guess I better gas up the pickup.

Favors a Run game ….might help us. And Adam taking advantage on those punts.

 

[RocktheRac]

You "don't read the weather thread," but you're quoting "nuisance" rain/showers from my weather posts...which you don't read. Can't make this up, lol.

I didn't say I didn't read. I said I read weather threads somewhere from Tues/ Wed. It's pointless as much as watching an NBA game from start to finish.

 

[WhiteBus]

Philly stations have all defined any chance of rain to late in the day. Looks good for tailgating and game.

 

[RU848789]

Still a complex setup with some uncertainty on precip timing, but every model continues to show nothing more than a few sprinkles (<0.01" of rain) through about 2 pm, which is meaningless to everyone except a few drama queens on this board. And any rain during the game should also be pretty light and spotty. The NWS expects dry conditions through about 2 pm with a few light showers or drizzle possible (~30% chance of <0.02" of rain) after that, but it may also simply remain dry. It will be pretty cloudy with the backdoor cold front sending an ENE flow towards us, keeping highs in the upper 60s, and it could get a little breezy (10-15 mph) in the afternoon. Unless things change a fair amount, looks like good football weather to me.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.46300599110211&lat=40.52455975850225#.YV4NX5rMJ3g

No real change in the forecast, as the backdoor cold front will be ushering in low clouds Friday night into Saturday on ENE winds and the approaching trough from the west and the low off the SE coast will be trying to feed moisture into the area, but the models continue to hold this moisture off, for the most part until Saturday evening, with only some sprinkles/drizzle possible, especially after about 1-2 pm.

About half of the models show zero precip from sunrise through late afternoon on Saturday, while a couple show up to about 0.02" of light rain during that time. Certainly nuisance precip, IMO, but some will not like it. It'll certainly be cloudy and mild with high temps around 70F and a bit breezy with 10-15 mph winds. The official NWS-Philly precip forecast is for about a 20% hance of some sprinkles/drizzle, amounting to about 0.01" of rain during the daytime hours, whereas the NWS-NYC precip forecast for Union/Staten Island, just to our north and east, respectively, is for completely dry weather through daytime. Football weather.

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lon=-74.46300599110211&lat=40.52455975850225#.YV9ah9rMJ3j

 

[goru1869]

Favors a Run game ….might help us. And Adam taking advantage on those punts.

But it doesn't favor tailgates .

 

[RU#1fan]

But it doesn't favor tailgates .

Wear ponchos .. I have a few Red if you want one.

 

[RU848789]

Wear ponchos .. I have a few Red if you want one.

Nowhere near enough rain in the forecast for a poncho, IMO, although I'm not the guy to listen to on that one, lol, as I have no issue getting wet, unless it's pretty cold (I think Temple in 2002 and Army in 2007 were the only games I wore rain gear for) and it won't be cold on Saturday.